Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
  • Threads: 132
  • Posts: 14745
Thanks for this post from:
Hunterhill
June 29th, 2021 at 2:13:32 PM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

See if you can determine why you bet instead of fold with this hand and this board, UTH of course. 

a] Counting the outs tells you to fold and this the case of an exception to the 21 outs.
or 
b] The count tells you to bet. 

I'm pretty sure the calculator goes by total probability and does not 'count the outs' per se. The board represents so many outs, and the dealer could also have K,Q,J,10, four cards representing 16 outs that get added to what the board represents in outs.

is it a or b? For your answer, using spoiler cover would be polite. 



I say this is related to the Wizard's statement at his site , "I get asked a lot about combinations of cards that will beat the player. For example, any two dealer spades that would give the dealer a flush in the example above [see site]. The answer is no. It would really make things complicated if the strategy accounted for double-card combinations that would beat the player."

This, though, would be a special case of this. I say you don't count the 4s on the board as possible outs! If the dealer had one 4 he would have another pair, sure, but now he has 3 pair with that and can only use 5 cards of course. So one 4 is useless and is not counted as an out. If he has 2 fours, he would have a full house, true, but having a pocket pair of 4s as a possibility, though real, goes against the Wizard's statement about that in counting the 21 outs. 

The board represents only 4 outs! 2 aces and 2 6s. 16 more outs in K,Q,J,10 gets you to only 20 and you do bet! this is my answer anyway. The answer is 'b', counting the outs tells you to bets

BTW I'd say I miss this every time when playing!


https://wizardofodds.com/games/ultimate-texas-hold-em/calculator/
https://wizardofodds.com/games/ultimate-texas-hold-em/



Counting the outs does not tell you to fold; there are twenty outs. A four does not improve the dealers hand, only pocket fours would.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
  • Threads: 311
  • Posts: 8621
Thanks for this post from:
Mission146
June 29th, 2021 at 3:29:37 PM permalink
I'm going to claim you looked at my answer first! Just kidding!

In all seriousness, this was a puzzle for me at first. Would you say you would seldom make the wrong choice when playing, that is, you just naturally see this?
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
  • Threads: 132
  • Posts: 14745
June 30th, 2021 at 4:45:08 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

I'm going to claim you looked at my answer first! Just kidding!

In all seriousness, this was a puzzle for me at first. Would you say you would seldom make the wrong choice when playing, that is, you just naturally see this?



I feel bad saying so, but I would definitely not make the wrong choice on this one. Again, that's just from playing some degree of THE (not UTH). When you have a pair on the board with over cards as well as another card on the board that pairs you up (or a low pocket pair), then sometimes an over card will come on the Turn or River that completely nullifies your pair, or you second pair with the hole cards you are using.

Similarly:

Pocket: Kc4c

Flop: Ah Ks 4d

Okay, so I have flopped two pair in this scenario and we are obviously not all-in pre-flop, so this would be a snap all-in for me if anybody bets into me because I have a King blocked, I have a four blocked (which makes my opponent having 4s4h VERY unlikely), so I feel great about this flop. If I am first to act (or early in a multi-way), then I am probably going to get to try my favorite move, which is check---someone else bets---I shove.

Also, AA and AK should have shoved preflop in this scenario, which would cause me to fold preflop, which is why I say I am not all in already. They don't always shove there, but they should, in my opinion. The only way I am betting anything with suited K4 is if I am protecting a big blind against some fairly small bet.

The only card my opponent could have that gives me pause is an Ace. I have to worry about his second card catching a pair or another Ace coming out, but he would need runner-runner for a straight (if that's even possible for him) on this board, so my opponent bets and I am playing him for an Ace. The two obvious ways I think he beats me are to pair up his second card or to catch a third ace....I'm not scared of AA AK or KK because all should have shoved preflop and I have a King blocked anyway. I'm not too worried about A4 just because it's unlikely...and that's just going to happen on rare occasion...so you have to take your lumps on those.

So, he's got two aces (one is in his hand) and three of whatever side card.

(41/46) * (40/45) = 0.7922705314

Of course, I couldn't mentally calculate it to that decimal AND I am going to assume my opponent has Ax where x is a high-enough card to make runner-runner straight possible, AJ, A10, something like that...as AQ should have probably shoved pre-flop. It's not relevant for this flop, but I'm going to assume NOT suited in the high-card scenario because AJ or A10 suited should generally shove pre-flop most of the time, though there are exceptions---or maybe not---depending who you ask.

He could also have suited Ace with a low card making runner-runner flush possible, but that doesn't change my expectations for this hand THAT much.

WoO THE Calculator puts me at 72.93% to win (assuming opponent A-x where x is unsuited J or 10) and I would have estimated it to 75%.

But, there's something else that can be problematic and is one of those where you just take your lumps sometimes. That is the case of a running pair, such as:

Turn: 10c
River: 10d

Well, $#!+. I now have two pair, Kings over Tens...my four is useless and is actually a total non-card. My kicker is the Ace on the board. If my opponent even has the ace that I thought he does, then I lose to AA1010 and his kicker is the king on the board.

So, what I have done is given my opponent (in my mind) the best hand that I think he can possibly have based on his/her actions, which is how I tend to do that. I think he has an Ace with a high(ish), but not King. He might also have a king that he paired, but him to also have K4 is extremely unlikely, so I would love for him to have a king in this scenario. Even if he did have K4, I wouldn't mind.

Running pair here isn't terribly likely...but there are other situations where you will see a pair nullified or your two pair technically made better, just not with your cards.

Mostly, I think this tends to happen with low cards including a pair on the flop, maybe catching a low second pair on the turn using one of your hole cards and then the river comes and matches the off-pair card that came on the flop. Like this:

Player: 7d6d

Flop: JhJsAd

Okay, so supposing that the players to see this flop mostly limped in, in many cases, nothing about this is helpful to them. Now, imagine the turn comes 7s...you still have to worry that someone was slow-playing an Ace or a Jack and trying to trap you...so a good player would probably bet JJ77, but I'm not a good player, so I wouldn't.

And, then the river comes Ah and your opponent having any card better than a seven now beats you. He doesn't even need an Ace or Jack.

Anyway, if you have played THE to any great degree, then yes, the concept of a pair being nullified (for you or the other player---or, in UTH, the dealer) is something that pops into one's head automatically.

DISCLAIMER: I am NOT a GOOD TEXAS HOLD 'EM PLAYER. I am a fairly decent player, certainly no better than average and probably slightly below average---especially not with who is still playing these days, so this SHOULD NOT be taken as actual advice on how to play this situation.

The comments above reflect my personal thought process given this particular situation and SHOULD NOT be taken as advice as to how this hand should be played. That said, I do welcome other observations.
Last edited by: Mission146 on Jun 30, 2021
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
  • Threads: 311
  • Posts: 8621
Thanks for this post from:
Mission146
June 30th, 2021 at 11:33:50 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

I feel bad saying so,

you *should* feel bad for me, my poker playing has some serious holes in it!

Quote:

DISCLAIMER: I am NOT a GOOD TEXAS HOLD 'EM PLAYER.

I'm fairly convinced you are just being modest. Or perhaps you know where some of your holes are?

Eventually I plan to give my settled strategy with UTH that will have as little actual counting to 18/21 outs and as much automatic play by recognition, with 'succession' check down, as possible. Probably will start a new thread as the title of this one is getting a little old
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
  • Threads: 132
  • Posts: 14745
Thanks for this post from:
odiousgambit
June 30th, 2021 at 2:19:43 PM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

you *should* feel bad for me, my poker playing has some serious holes in it!

I'm fairly convinced you are just being modest. Or perhaps you know where some of your holes are?

Eventually I plan to give my settled strategy with UTH that will have as little actual counting to 18/21 outs and as much automatic play by recognition, with 'succession' check down, as possible. Probably will start a new thread as the title of this one is getting a little old



I'm not being modest, if I were good, then I would probably play much more often. My game has more holes than the underside of every piece of a Lego set.

More than anything, I don't have the disposition for poker. I'm usually at a table until I lose due to some sort of bad beat, so even if it's a table that my skill level should be beating, I usually end up quitting. I just can't help but get angry when I shove and get called when I'm holding the best hand (at the time I was called) and lose, or when I call a shove while holding the best hand (at the time I called) and lose. Most players are good enough not to let it impact them and are just happy that they called/got called with the best of it---not me.

That could be my only hole (it isn't) and would be enough to be pretty damning by itself. Other than that, I have a pretty good arsenal of various traps, but they'd only ever work against players at my skill level, or worse. I'm tight-aggressive in a way that a below average player probably wouldn't figure my game out, but any decent poker player would know what I am betting, when and why after being at a table with me for maybe two hours.

Take a flop like:

3d-5h-8s

So, I'm insta-shoving this pot in many situations. I'm actually shoving a pot like this a lot as long as there was no betting before it got to me post-flop. Someone good at poker who has spent just a few hours playing with me knows that I automatically have top pair, my kicker isn't terrible AND I'm almost certainly suited (though the suited probably doesn't matter here), so they're not calling me anymore unless they have a wired pair or maybe they want to chase an open-ended straight draw. A player who can't figure me out will usually call with something like Q-5 or J-5 because they think I have---I don't even know what they think I have---but players who can't figure me out are pretty much automatically not very good.

Thing is, I'm hoping for folds. I don't want overcards calling me here, or straight draws, which is why I would shove like that in the first place. I'm perfectly happy that everyone just folds it now and I take whatever happens to already be in the pot without a fight.

If I happen to have threes or fives wired up myself, then I'm probably going to try to slowroll trap, but again, good players would probably figure that out about me in an hour or an hour and a half. It wouldn't even take multiple hours. Player bets, I just call, they think, "Okay, I'm screwed this hand because he has trips already."

It wouldn't be 88 in my hand, because I'd have probably shoved that preflop.
Last edited by: Mission146 on Jun 30, 2021
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
ThisIsMyJam
ThisIsMyJam
Joined: Oct 22, 2019
  • Threads: 0
  • Posts: 12
Thanks for this post from:
Mission146odiousgambit
July 9th, 2021 at 1:08:08 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit



Finally, why am I saying there isn't enough time to count the outs? Well, I suppose you could keep telling the dealer to stop while you count them, but you're holding things up as far as the casino is concerned. If you did your due deligence on examining the board and your hand, you took a bit of time already. It is the job of the dealer to keep it moving, so he's going to worry about the pit getting on his case. It'd be similar to taking forever while you set the dice. Yeah, you can try taking all the time in the world, but you're going to get pushback. Sooner or later you won't be having fun, I've had some experience with this. There surely is also a time limit where you can find a video version of this game, at least if it is still going to be the same video dealer for each player, buxom though they might be.



I agree with what Mission stated earlier. It is your money on the line and you should take all the time you need. I've played many many many hours of UTH and occasionally for whatever reason my husband or I will need to slowly, carefully count the outs. I've never had a dealer or other players rush me. It's just a matter of maybe a quick apology and stating you're just double checking everything over or whatever. It really isn't a big deal at all. Aside from that, I learned long ago at the Blackjack tables never to let anyone pressure you into playing quicker or differently than what allows you to confidently make the correct decision.

I've read through a lot of your posts tonight and I think that a lot of the things you're thinking through will come with more experience at actual live tables. Counting outs/instinctively knowing them, when to bet, seeing/anticipating straights and flushes, etc will all come quickly with more real life experience. Plus, as I said, sometimes you have a brain fart and will need to take a minute to look things over and know that is totally fine too.

Your observations on the average player are spot on. It is truly a rarity to come across someone who knows proper strategy and always a bonding moment as we speak of the Wizard. Recently in Reno, I actually came across my first dealer who knew the strategy. The guy had a great personality too so that was extra fun.

It's also true that dealers often make mistakes so it is up to the players to know their hands and not rely on the dealer. The number of hands I've seen paid in error are too numerous to count. Same goes for the number of times a dealer has tried to take a player's winning hand away or not pay them out correctly on the blind or Trips. I watch all hands and regularly intervene on the players' behalf to save their hands/chips but never the other way around.. that's their business.

As for $5 tables, they were easily found pre-covid both locally and in Reno and Vegas. Post covid opening I had one trip where $10 was essentially the norm in Vegas but was able to find $5 at numerous locations on subsequent trips. I have another trip soon so will check it out but my sources say there are even more $5 tables lately than there had been earlier this year. Reno is still holding onto $10 at several of their casinos. It's such a bummer you don't have access to many.

I've heard about that video UTH at Cherokee and would love to give it a shot but that will never happen. I prefer live table games anyway but the novelty is fun.

  • Jump to: