Vega$ 3 Poker

Quote: G2

This stuff is less interesting than even EvenBob's life here, in agonizing minutia, and how he became that way, including those pictures of the uncooked stuff he claims to eat, homemade puke for cheapskates.

Uncooked? Cheapskates? So if you
cook at home that makes you a
'cheapskate' because you refuse
to overpay for overcooked processed
restaurant food? Really?

Quote: EvenBob

Uncooked? Cheapskates? So if you
cook at home that makes you a
'cheapskate' because you refuse
to overpay for overcooked processed
restaurant food? Really?

don't bother EB. He's red.

Quote: OnceDear

don't bother EB. He's red.

Why? For having contrary opinions? I disagreed with him but what rulez did he break?

Quote: billryan

Why? For having contrary opinions? I disagreed with him but what rulez did he break?

answered in the appropriate thread.

In reading the entire thread minus OT, I see some confusing terminology here.

From Texas Hold'em we have terms like "Suited-Connected" for hands like Ad-5c-6c, and "connected" for Ad-5s-6h. "Gutshot" usually refers to a gap of one like Ad-5c-7h. "Double-Barreled" for hands like 4h-6d-8s in which the 5 or 7 fills a straight.

Straights are more powerful than flushes in 3CP variants, and this one is no exception. Having BOTH options is even better. For the strict purposes of this game we have some unusual options like a "Suited Gutshot" Ad-5d-7c (or Ad-5c-7d or Ac-5d-7d) and "Suited-Double Barrel" (4s-6d-8s or 4s-6s-8d or 4d-6s-8s). Of further note is the small chance of a Straight-Flush draw (1 or 2 in 46, no chance for the suited-double barrel when the 'ends' are suited) by the 7th (common) card.
=====================================================================
In the meantime a redux of the 2x RAISES
1.) Any pat hand 3-3-x or Better
2.) 22 With Flush draw or A, 3, or 4 as kickers
With an Ace-High in-hand
3.) AJ9 or better
4.) AJ8 or LESS with Flush OR outside-Straight draw OR both
With a King-High in-hand
5.) K+ T8 or better with Flush draw AND Straight draw
6.) K+ 98, 87, 76, or 65 with Flush draw (open-ended straight draws included)
7.) K97 or K54 with Suited King (Straight draws included)
8.) CHECK ALL OTHERS
=====================================================================
ERRATUM:
On the WoO Vega$ 3 Page the "Vega$ 4" side-bet is incorrect as the side-bet is based upon the 4-card rank of the Hand + common. This is not 3-card occurance. Even the rack-card states its a 4-card punt.

Regards
Suited89

Correcting a typo on the below table from my previous post.

It has occurred to me that for Hands like KQx and KJx, KT9, KT8, K98, K87 that the probability of have a flush blocker is 75% (because , by definition, your hands will have 3 different suits, otherwise you would have Bet 2X at the previous decision point. For the other K-High and Q high hands in question, you will have a flush blocker with a probability of about 53% and "no flush blocker at 47%. So, in the table below, the rules for hands with a a flush blocker (a card with the same suit as the common card) are not some kind of exception, they apply to the majority of scenarios.

High Card Hands for Making the 1X Bet

Common Card	Minimum Hand: No Flush Blocker	Also Hit, No Flush Blocker	Minimum Hand, With Flush Blocker	Also Hit, With Flush Blocker
A	A Q T		A Q T
K	K Q T		K Q 9
Q	A Q x		K Q T
J	K J T		K J 9
T	K Q T		K J T
9	K Q T		K J 9
8	K Q 8-7		K J 8-6
7	A x x	KQ8, KQ7-6	K J 7-6
6	K Q T	KQ8, KQ7, KQ6-5	K J T	KJ8, KJ7, KJ6-5
5	K Q T	KQ7, KQ6, KQ5-4	K J T	KJ7, KJ6, KJ5-4
4	A x x	KQ5, KQ4-3	K Q x
3	K J T		K J x	KT5, KT4
2	K T x	K94, K93	K 8+

Regarding the erratum I noted in previous post the pay-scheme for the Vegas4 side bet. The Chart is assembled according to frequency of occurance for 4-card Stud Poker as provided by the WoO poker probabilities page. Copy and Paste as a csv text file (example Vegas4.csv) and open with spreadsheet (comma delimited).

Using this, I find a House Advantage of 5.628%

4-Card,Combos,pays,payout,fraction
ROYAL FL,4,200,800,0.002955
4oaK,13,100,1300,0.004802
Str-Fl,40,80,3200,0.011820
3oaK,2496,25,62400,0.230492
Straight,2772,12,33264,0.122870
Two Pair,2808,5,14040,0.051861
Flush,2816,10,28160,0.104017
J's Better,25344,3,76032,0.280846
10's or less,234432,-1,-234432,-0.865941
TOTALS,270725,,,-0.056279

Regards
Suited89

This is a graphic I created to analyze the strategy for Bet 1X decision as a function of the 3-card hand and common card. So far, I am still not seeing an easy way how to write a concise strategy.

For an Intermediate Strategy for Bet 1x or Fold, I have developed this, in the table below. It has only 7 rules. (this was like killing my babies.)

This strategy does not mention flush blockers, because I think it makes it too complicated - with too many rules -for an intermediate strategy. I have taken into account that when your 3 card hand was KQx or KJx that there is a a 75% chance that you will have a flush blocker - because you will have 3 different suits in your hand (otherwise you will have Bet 2X before seeing the common card.) I have also studied the calculated EVs for many of the 'marginal hands' to make educated decisions on how to roll up the more exact strategy into a manageable number of rules.
*********************************************************
Intermediate Strategy for Bet 1 X or fold.

Always Bet 1X with a pair or better.

Without a pair, flush or straight, your 'Bet 1X or Fold' decision will depend upon the rank of the common card and the 3 card hand that you started with.

Common Card	Minimum 3-card Hand to Bet 1X
A	QT2
K	Q92
Q	KT2
J	K92
3,T	KJ2
4-9	KQ2
2	K83

Notice that when your first three cards include an Ace that you should never fold; you should always bet at least 1X.
************************************
Clearly, I'm not certain this is the best possible way to define an intermediate strategy. Perhaps Charlie can run a case where these rules are used and compare the House Advantage to the value calculated for the complex strategies in my previous posts. I'm really open to suggestions and ideas.

based on the work of charliepatrick and gordonm888, I devised a strategy based upon the original 3 cards in your hand... even after revealing 4th card. I hope this brings an easier to figure method to the table.

http://www.am3radio.com/Vegas3strat.pdf

Regards
Suited89

Quote: Suited89

based on the work of charliepatrick and gordonm888, I devised a strategy based upon the original 3 cards in your hand... even after revealing 4th card. I hope this brings an easier to figure method to the table.

http://www.am3radio.com/Vegas3strat.pdf

Regards
Suited89

When I open the chart it looks like a bunch of code,is it my phone or something else?

Quote: gordonm888

...

Common Card	Minimum 3-card Hand to Bet 1X
A	QT2
K	Q92
Q	KT2
J	K92
3,T	KJ2
4-9	KQ2
2	K83

Straight Draw	No Flush Draw	Flush Draw
(0 ways) None	Pair of 3s	A x x+
(1 way) Inside	A J 9+	K T 8+
(2 ways) Outside	A 6 5+	K 5 4+

I used my initial Double strategy (as per earlier in thread) and then a variety of Call/Fold decisions including yours. Apart from when the common card is a two, I agree with your cutoff hands are the best.

C = Ace	C = K-2	Notes
A Q T	A x x	-0.9353%
A Q T	K Q T	-0.9239%
A Q T	Yours	-0.8847%
Yours	2: K 9 x	-0.8841%

More playing around...
Perfect = 0.8773%, Advanced (first row) 0.8841%.
Cost of simplifications
(i) x2 using Axx/Kxx 0.016%
(ii) x1 using KQT except (A)AQT, (3)KJx, (2)K9x 0.018%
(iii) x1 using KQT except (A)AQT 0.023%

x2

x1

Call

or

Fold

R1

R2

R2b

R3

R4

R5

No Fl

No Fl

No Fl

Flush

Flush

Flush

Any Str

2w Str

1way Str

2w Str

C=A

C=K

C=Q

C=J

C=T

C=9

C=8

C=7

C=6

C=5

C=4

C=3

C=2

p(3)

AJ9

A65

A32

KT8

K54

AQT

KQ9

KQT

KJ9

KJ2

KQ2

KQ2

KQ2

KQ2

KQ2

KQ2

KJ2

K92

-0.884 075%

p(3)

AJ9

A65

A32

KT8

K54

AQT

KQ9

KQT

KJ9

KJ2

KQ2

KQ2

KQ2

KQ2

KQ2

KQ2

KJ2

K82

-0.884 704%

p(3)

AJ9

A32

A32

KT8

K32

AQT

KQ9

KQT

KJ9

KJ2

KQ2

KQ2

KQ2

KQ2

KQ2

KQ2

KJ2

K92

-0.900 881%

p(3)

AJ9

A65

A32

KT8

K54

AQT

KQT

KQT

KQT

KQT

KQT

KQT

KQT

KQT

KQT

KQT

KQT

KQT

-0.923 903%

p(3)

AJ9

A32

A32

KT8

K32

AQT

KQT

KQT

KQT

KQT

KQT

KQT

KQT

KQT

KQT

KQT

KQT

KQT

-0.940 710%

p(3)

AJ9

A32

A32

KT8

K32

AQT

KQT

KQT

KQT

KQT

KQT

KQT

KQT

KQT

KQT

KQT

KT9

K98

-0.918 636%

p(3)

AJ9

A65

A32

KT8

K54

AQT

KQT

KQT

KQT

KQT

KQT

KQT

KQT

KQT

KQT

KQT

KJ2

K93

-0.900 561%

Cell/smart phones use a different programming system than desk/lap tops. It should open at home using the latter. Risc programming is way different than say 32 or 64 bit Windows/Mac/Linux.

I've condensed a lot of Charliepatrick's and gordonm888's work into something at least readable and reasonably close to optimum.
================================================================

2xRaise- raise all pat hands 3-3 or better, else
1.) Raise 2-2 with suited kicker or off-suit Ace or 3
2.) AJT or better
3.) Other Ace-High: either Flush Draw or Outside Straight draw
4.) King-high: KT8 or better with Flush draw,
include K98, K97, K87, K76, K65, K54 with King-high Flush draw

ELSE CHECK

CC = Common (7th) Card, x = Common Card or better
1x Raise- any Pair or better, else
CC 4-suit 3-suit

Ace AQT AQT
K Q KQT KQ9
J T KJT KJT
9-4 KQx KJx
3...KJx KJx
2...KTx K9x*

* include K872 and K862 if 2-Suited

FOLD ALL OTHERS
================================================================

Regards
Suited89

Separately, if the DEMO is even close to random with all the bad-beats, I've noticed how difficult it is to overcome a full loss. A lot of DNQs pay 1 for a risk of three (shades of Carrib. Stud). Therefore I find any mistake is quite costly, and gaining back 10 ante's or more very difficult.

EDIT: my TJQ straight just beat an A23 1/5/2020 2am EST

JMHO
Suited89

I’m a carny games player. I wouldn’t play this. For me, the best carny games are the ones with simple strategy: 3 Card and Mississippi, followed by UTH and Criss Cross. If I have to memorize more than a couple decision points, I’m out. My goal is to have fun. Memorizing tables isn’t fun. For blackjack, I could memorize a smaller table and play a game with better odds.

On the other hand, no one else I’ve seen plays with any strategy whatsoever. So the game will probably be a rousing success, just without me.

Quote: Mosca

...If I have to memorize more than a couple decision points, I’m out....Memorizing tables isn’t fun...

There are a few games around which have a complicated perfect strategy. So the challenge is to devise a simple strategy that works reasonably well and is easier to remember However it's also interesting to develop intermediate strategies that, if people want to remember more details, can help reduce the House Edge. In this game the emphasis should be on the first decision as errors in raise aren't so important.

For instance a really simple strategy is
x2
(i) Any Pair of 3s or better.
(ii) Any Axx or p(2) with EITHER a flush draw OR a 2-way straight draw.
(iii) Any Kxx with BOTH a flush draw AND a 2-way straight draw.
x1
(a) KQT, except AQT with A common card.

(iv) If you have a second picture in rules (ii) or (iii) above you only need any straight draw instead of 2-way.
Rule (iv) saves 0.08%, and if you can remember rule (iv) is actually AJ9+ and KT8+ this saves an extra 0.01%.

Quote: charliepatrick

There are a few games around which have a complicated perfect strategy. So the challenge is to devise a simple strategy that works reasonably well and is easier to remember However it's also interesting to develop intermediate strategies that, if people want to remember more details, can help reduce the House Edge. In this game the emphasis should be on the first decision as errors in raise aren't so important.

For instance a really simple strategy is
x2
(i) Any Pair of 3s or better.
(ii) Any Axx or p(2) with EITHER a flush draw OR a 2-way straight draw.
(iii) Any Kxx with BOTH a flush draw AND a 2-way straight draw.
x1
(a) KQT, except AQT with A common card.

(iv) If you have a second picture in rules (ii) or (iii) above you only need any straight draw instead of 2-way.
Rule (iv) saves 0.08%, and if you can remember rule (iv) is actually AJ9+ and KT8+ this saves an extra 0.01%.

Nice. I enjoy reading the math. The reality is that I don’t play often enough to remember more complicated strategies. I like the carny games, but I recognize that they are negative expectation, so we go to the casino like once every 6 weeks or so. Same thing with learning Pai Gow tiles. I bought a set, read the books, and got pretty decent.... and then I didn’t play again for more than a month. Then I didn’t play again for like five years, met up with SOOPOO in Niagara, and felt like an idiot playing the tiles with a bunch of hardened pros.

Just a clarification on the example hand presented at the "Vega$ 3 Poker" WOO page. Although the text says the community card is no help, the 10 does indeed improve the player's hand by turning the pair of queens into a straight (10, J, Q). With the dealer only holding a pair of 5s, however, in this case it doesn't matter. Note that this upgrade does not improve the side bet winnings since it's not a 4-card straight nor was the 3-card straight formed with the player's initial three cards.

Quote: Gialmere

Just a clarification on the example hand presented at the "Vega$ 3 Poker" WOO page. Although the text says the community card is no help, the 10 does indeed improve the player's hand by turning the pair of queens into a straight (10, J, Q).

Thank you for that correction, which I just fixed. It took only six months.

What brings me here is I played Vega$ 3 Poker for the first time on Saturday. The only thing I have to report is they pay 50 to 1 for a Mini Royal on the Vega$ 3 bet, while the demo game does not. That lowers the house edge on that side bet to 7.10%.