What is considered "long term" in craps?
Quote: teddysBecause you are playing a close to even game with high variance, and they don't like that. Casinos are most afraid of large odds bettors on craps, and big-betting baccarat punters. They are the only ones who can really damage the casino in one fell swoop. (Not counting card counters, VP/sports sharpies, or operators, who usually do their damage imperceptibly over a long period of time). Blackjack, slots, and roulette players they know they can wear out in the long-term.
The above would be true if the bets of any one high-roller were large enough to significantly alter the bottom line if that high-roller got very lucky. This is rarely the case. The casinos LOVE big action, because they make more money if someone is betting $100,000 than $20, but the big bettor is taking up no more space than the small bettor, he is consuming only the same amount of free drinks, etc. etc. The casino's revenue increases without its overhead correspondingly increasing.
A lucky baccarat or craps player can make the casino have a bad day, week, or month, but any casino operator who understands variance shouldn't be concerned with that. The mission is accomplished when they get those diamond-encrusted butts in the chairs. The actual short-term outcome is irrelevant to that.
Quote: jjj8882I am thinking about going up to 10 x odds. Since i have won $4250 at $5 and 6 x odds, I equate that to 4250*1.6 = $7083 if i had played at 10 x odds from the start. Is that a correct conversion?
So I am willing to lose or give back 7083 playing 10x odds before I will say they have beaten me.
I think you would be wise to be more concerned with the money than your macho "I beat them" or "they have beaten me". You can look on this as the same thing as getting ahead in a session and then increasing your bets. You are "going for the gusto", trying to win even more, but the more likely result is to give some of the winnings back. Look here:
bet 5 win 5
bet 7 lose 7
net -2
bet 5 win 5
bet 5 lose 5
net 0
If each player won the second bet, the progressive player would have won more. Keep in mind that every line bet, place bet, etc., has an expected loss, so when you increase your bet, you increase your expected loss. I have done many comparisons of flat betting vs. progressive, up-and-regress, etc.; the shapes of the distributions are very different, but the mean is always edge * action, which means that the more you bet, the more is your EXPECTED loss. It does NOT mean you WILL lose, unless you make so many bets that the probability of overcoming the edge becomes disappearingly small.
If you go to 10X odds, you are not increasing your expected loss, but you are risking more, and in doing so your are actually increasing the casinos' chance of getting their money back. Why? For any degree of bad luck you have, i.e. if you lose more of those points than expectation (40.6%), you will lose more with 10X odds than 6X. Of course, for any degree of good luck, you will win more with 10X than 6X.
Another significant question is, "How much is that $4100 worth to you?" It's not what most people would consider a "life-changing" amount, unless you were about to be evicted or owed some gangster $4000. OTOH, it's nothing to sneeze at. But suppose you needed $8000 for a vacation you want to take. Would you risk the $4100 to get it up to $8000? If you decided that's what you wanted, then going to 10X would give you a better chance of getting it, but also a better chance of losing it. These are questions nobody can answer for you, except yourself. If you just want to be able to say, "I'm ahead of the casinos", then reducing your variance reduces the probability of losing the $4100 back.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA
And if I do go up to 8k, I have no problem whatsover in possibly giving it back and then telling you "they have beaten me".....if it happens....
so is 8k the correct conversion would you say?? that was never answered
next question
Over the course of 100 points, how many (7 and 11's are expected on come out rolls) and how many (2,3, and 12 's are expected on come out rolls)?
Quote: jjj88824k is not a significant amount to me.........neither is 8k............the knowledge of knowing craps has been beaten so far is priceless....brings a big smile to my face
And if I do go up to 8k, I have no problem whatsover in possibly giving it back and then telling you "they have beaten me".....if it happens....
so is 8k the correct conversion would you say?? that was never answered
Roughly $7700 with $5 pass, 10X odds, 3450 bets, results 2.5 SD better than expectation.
Quote: jjj8882next question
Over the course of 100 points, how many (7 and 11's are expected on come out rolls) and how many (2,3, and 12 's are expected on come out rolls)?
You need the "perfect 1980":
| result | ways | comment |
|---|---|---|
| comeout win | 440 | |
| comeout loss | 220 | 660 comeout decisions |
| win on 6 | 125 | |
| loss on 6 | 150 | |
| win on 8 | 125 | |
| loss on 8 | 150 | |
| win on 5 | 88 | |
| loss on 5 | 132 | |
| win on 9 | 88 | |
| loss on 9 | 132 | |
| win on 4 | 55 | |
| loss on 4 | 110 | 1320 point decisions |
| win on 10 | 55 | 536 point wins |
| loss on 10 | 110 | 784 seven-outs |
| ---- | ||
| 1980 |
1980 is the smallest integer to reflect all the possible outcomes as integers. To get the percentages, just divide the numbers by 1980, so 440 comeout wins is 22.2%, etc.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA
A big odds bettor is both loved and hated at the casino. Loved for the reasons you mentioned; he brings in revenue and creates excitement. Hated and somewhat feared because he is playing basically a break-even game with the casino for a huge sum of money. A guy walks into Eastside Cannery and starts betting $5+$500, $10+$1,000, or more on every point, sure they will be fawning over him, but also shitting themselves at the same time. They know they will either lose big or win big, and not get a lot of expected loss off of him. A blackjack player will stick around, and be subject to the grind. So will a baccarat player (to a lesser extent). Check out the Mr. Royalty story at the Golden Nugget for a good example of this.Quote: mkl654321The above would be true if the bets of any one high-roller were large enough to significantly alter the bottom line if that high-roller got very lucky. This is rarely the case. The casinos LOVE big action, because they make more money if someone is betting $100,000 than $20, but the big bettor is taking up no more space than the small bettor, he is consuming only the same amount of free drinks, etc. etc. The casino's revenue increases without its overhead correspondingly increasing.
A lucky baccarat or craps player can make the casino have a bad day, week, or month, but any casino operator who understands variance shouldn't be concerned with that. The mission is accomplished when they get those diamond-encrusted butts in the chairs. The actual short-term outcome is irrelevant to that.
1. at what sd can someone start thinking, hey something is going on to cause these extreme results?
2. Can you run the simulation again, but do it for 7000 bets, 14000 bets and 50,000 bets? And report the data like you did below for 3450 bets. Excellent data provided by you guys, much appreciated.
6pass 60 odds one long marathon session
I also ran 10,000 sessions of 3450 bets, with these results:
mean outcome: -$314
standard deviation: $3785.60
winning sessions: 4621
breakeven sessions: 5
losing sessions: 5374
percentage of sessions breaking even or better: .4626, quite close to the ev/SD estimate
sample HA was .001978
Of the 10,000 sessions, 1215 had net wins of at least $4100, 3616 at least $1000, whereas 4309 lost at least $1000, and 1580 lost at least $4100.
Quote: jjj8882What does it mean if a players profits are outside 1 standard deviation of what is being tested? OR how likely is it that a player falls outside one sd? 10 percent chance? 25 percent chance? or what percentile in terms of making money does 1 sd and 2 sd fall into...like does 1 sd to the upside mean you have outperformed 75 percent of all the players and 2 sd be 90 percent?
In a standard normal distribution, 68% of all samples are expected to be between +1 and -1 SD from the mean, so about 16% would fall above +1 SD or below -1 SD. 95% of samples are expected to fall between +1.96 and - 1.96 SD. For +/- 2 SD, 2.28% would be expected to be above/below.
I don't like the verb "outperform"; we are talking about random events here, not "skill".
Quote: jjj88821. at what sd can someone start thinking, hey something is going on to cause these extreme results?
For something like this, where we know that this is a negative ev game, it would take much more extreme variation than this. Keep in mind that, if you say there's only a .01 probability of something occurring by chance, we would expect to find that 100 times out of 10,000 experiments. There are a hell of a lot more than 10,000 craps players out there.
Quote: jjj88822. Can you run the simulation again, but do it for 7000 bets, 14000 bets and 50,000 bets? And report the data like you did below for 3450 bets. Excellent data provided by you guys, much appreciated.
I have done enough. You have plenty of information.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
alan, can you please do simulations stats 6 pass, 60 odds for 7000 bets?
Quote: jjj8882+88 last night
alan, can you please do simulations stats 6 pass, 60 odds for 7000 bets?
Not to speak for Alan, but I bet he would do the work you request if you hired him. I doubt he'll work for free, however.
Quote: thecesspitIt may be apocryphal, but I heard that one year London Clubs International had to change its year end figures one time at the last minute as Kerry Packer (or his son) had had a good night just before the annual report was due.
The annual report is usually published more than a month after the period is closed so there is no chance that London Club would have to change their annual report based on an event that happened more than a month ago.
craps can be beaten!!!
Quote: jjj8882+100 more over 3 more visits
craps can be beaten!!!
That sure doesn't sound like much from someone who wrote here less than a month ago: "4k is not a significant amount to me.........neither is 8k."
Nah, keep playing in September and keep making profits, just pay someone to never tear August from your calendar! Or just don't tell the dice that its September!Quote: weaselmanThis one's easy! Just don't play in September, and you'll always stay on the positive side from now on!
and won $82 more tonight............craps has been beaten.....or it will take 5-6 years for me to give it back.........should avoid september!!
During 10 hours of play on Sat. the table was mostly, 7 out, 7 out, 1 point - 7 out. One player made 6 points, and a few made 3 points, but at no time did two consecutive shooters ever make 2 or more points. Most of the shooters following 2 made points went 7 out, and very few of them even rolled more than 2 place numbers. There were just enough points made to make sure the Don't players were also not having great sessions either. Funny how that seems to work out.
To prove my insanity, I went back on Sunday morning. Since I drove 6 hours to get there, to leave after one day was really not an option. At least that is my excuse and I am sticking to it.
Playing $5 table, I held down about $50 for an hour, until they raised to a $10 table. One lap around the table with not a single player making a point killed my BR. I did notice during that run that not many 4s had been showing up, so with my last $80, I decided to Lay the 4 and 10. For the next 8 shooters the only bet I made was the Lay 4, ending up with a $120 Lay 4 bet. Two well timed come out 7 rolls paid me $57 x 2, and coupled with taking my Lay 4 down, got me back to + $15 for the 2 hour session. Got in the car, gassed up for $45 and went home a winner! :-) It's new age math, y'all.
Got to change my name to CRAPS_IS_KICKING_MY_ASS
I am at around 4000 points of crap play. Am back at all time record high of around $5500. Went sideways for a while, now bubbling up to record highs. Craps can be beaten.
how much are you selling your system for?
where do i send a check?
silly
Quote: jjj8882Update:
I am at around 4000 points of crap play. Am back at all time record high of around $5500. Went sideways for a while, now bubbling up to record highs. Craps can be beaten.
opens gambling spreadsheet
Damn, I'm up $7538.51 over 3 years of craps play! I had no idea I was a craps AP! Who wants to buy my system? It's called maxing out your odds and playing the darkside if the table seems cold or you feel like being an ass. Works every time! Except when it doesn't.
Thank you for the info! Your info is the stuff I am after.....
"
.00367 is the probability of being that far up or more after 6K pass line bets with 5X odds
or about 1 in 273 players or 3,670 out of 1 million players."
This is awesome.......!!!
I'm probably missing something but if jjj882 is winning money that's a good thing.
unemployment in Nevada is very high already. Isn't that a possibility ?
If someone could show me where you plugged my numbers into the math formulas so I could use it down the road it would be appreciated .
Quote: jjj888212,000 real life pass line bets have been made by my system the past several years. $5 pass with $30 in odds when a certain event occurs in the dice. What is the amount of money I should have loss based on the house edge on the pass line at these 6 x odds ??? You can assume I have 100k starting bankroll. How much should be left after 12,000 pass line bets?
If someone could show me where you plugged my numbers into the math formulas so I could use it down the road it would be appreciated .
Ignore the odds to get expected value. You've got $60,000 going up against the house edge of 1.41% . With this information *everybody* wants you to do the math yourself.
I see 7 craps has something for you. Hopefully he knows what kind of variance and the SD you get with 6x odds.
ExcellentQuote: jjj888212,000 real life pass line bets have been made by my system the past several years.
$5 pass with $30 in odds when a certain event occurs in the dice.
What is the amount of money I should have loss based on the house edge on the pass line at these 6 x odds ???
You can assume I have 100k starting bankroll.
How much should be left after 12,000 pass line bets?
If someone could show me where you plugged my numbers into the math formulas so I could use it down the road it would be appreciated .
Your expected loss or EV is
HE (house edge) * $Flat Bet * N (number of bets made)
(-7/495) * $5 * 12,000
I think that is -$848.48
You did not ask but...
The standard deviation for 1 bet at $5 is
$34.09649187 (6.819298375 * $5)
The SD for 12,000 such bets is:
(square root of 12,000) * $34.09649187 = $3,735.08
Now you have your EV (expected loss) and the SD (standard deviation) for 12,000 bets.
Use the free software program Sally showed you in her post and you can answer even more questions
about the probability of winning or losing X$s more or less.
or this site.
The second Graph for wins (in white)
http://www.measuringusability.com/normal_curve.php
The Mean = EV
Keep up the good work.
So you only make your pass line bet with 6X odds after a certain dice event occurs?
I have never heard of this before.
Good Luck
Quote: 7crapsYou did not ask but...
The standard deviation for 1 bet at $5 is
$34.09649187 (6.819298375 * $5)
The SD for 12,000 such bets is:
(square root of 12,000) * $34.09649187 = $3,735.08
So the SD using 6x odds is 6.819298375 ?
Where is such information found?
Good Question.Quote: odiousgambitSo the SD using 6x odds is 6.819298375 ?
Where is such information found?
In my Excel spreadsheet.
I think guido111 posted a table at one time too, but I can't find it.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/questions-and-answers/math/8764-craps-math-3-4-5-x-odds/
So here is mine without the math
Pass Line with odds Standard Deviation table
Odds unitSD avg bet
0 0.999900005 1.00
1 1.893050027 1.67
2 2.857879771 2.33
Full 2 2.954695498 2.47
3 3.840744091 3.00
345X 4.91563184 3.78
4 4.830647323 3.67
5 5.824001368 4.33
6 6.819298375 5.00
7 7.815796102 5.67
8 8.813087262 6.33
9 9.810929899 7.00
10 10.80917128 7.67
20 20.80087901 14.33
40 40.7964868 27.67
50 50.7955876 34.33
60 60.79498419 41.00
80 80.79422548 54.33
100 100.7937679 67.67
Quote: 7crapsSo here is mine without the math
Thanks!! I have searched all over hell for this!
Believe it or not, I am copying this and saving it not only on my computer but in cyberspace storage!!
One can see that, should he be without the table, the SD can be roughly taken from the number for the type of odds and adding approx 0.85. A bit more for typical offering and a bit less for the big offerings. Whodathunkit? Thanks again!
