GBAM
Joined: Feb 26, 2019
• Posts: 82
April 10th, 2019 at 1:07:27 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Just added an analysis of the Attack bet to my Heart Attack page (see previous post for link). Assuming the win for a pair must include a heart in the pair (as opposed to the singleton) and I didn't make a mistake, I get a house edge of 4.59%.

Might be good to make sure it’s clear that the attack bet pays regardless of whether you lay all 3 or not. As you have it now it’s falling under rule 12 which says you must lay all 3

And also clarify that the attack bet is player cards only and evaluated as soon as the cards are dealt. Some players in real life thought cards must be laid (like having to lay jc,jh to get paid for a pair) and others thought just the opposite that they have to remain in the hand.

Also in the attack pay table consider rewording “pair with a heart” to the word “include” to avoid “jc Js 2H” confusion. Apply this change to straight and 3OK as well. On the rack card they use “3oK straight and pair; must include at least one heart”

Maybe mention that the game really clears itself up after actually playing a few hands. I’m thick and I got it after 5 or so
miplet
Joined: Dec 1, 2009
• Posts: 1941
April 10th, 2019 at 1:25:49 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Just added an analysis of the Attack bet to my Heart Attack page (see previous post for link). Assuming the win for a pair must include a heart in the pair (as opposed to the singleton) and I didn't make a mistake, I get a house edge of 4.59%.

I'm getting slightly different numbers.

HandWaysPaysProbabilityReturn
Royal1250 0.000045 0.011312
Straight Flush11100 0.000498 0.049774
Trips3930 0.001765 0.052941
Flush27410 0.012398 0.123982
Straight4326 0.019548 0.117285
Pair18723 0.084706 0.254118
2 Hearts24661 0.111584 0.111584
Loser17005-1 0.769457 -0.769457
Total221001-0.048462

Also the rack card has 40 to 1 for Trips which lowers the house edge to 3.08%
Last edited by: miplet on Apr 10, 2019
“Man Babes” #AxelFabulous
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
• Posts: 21942
April 10th, 2019 at 5:42:53 AM permalink
Quote: ChesterDog

So, for a pair to win the Attack bet, one of the pair must be heart. A hand with a pair with only a heart singleton would lose the Attack bet.

Thank you.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
• Posts: 21942
April 10th, 2019 at 5:57:58 AM permalink
Quote: miplet

I'm getting slightly different numbers.

Thanks, you're right. I wasn't counting the wheel straights correctly.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
• Posts: 21942
Thanks for this post from:
April 10th, 2019 at 6:51:40 AM permalink
Any comments on the following strategy?

1. Never play a heart, unless it's your only choice.
2. Given the choice of multiple non-heart cards to play, play the one with fewer outs. For any given card, the number of outs is the number of remaining cards that match in rank or suit, not counting hearts.

Here is an example:

The 3c has 13 outs -- the 11 clubs left in the deck and 2 non-heart threes.
The 8c has 12 outs -- the 11 clubs left in the deck and the 1 non-heart eight.

So, play the 8c, because it has fewer outs.

Any situations this advice doesn't cover?
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
beachbumbabs
Joined: May 21, 2013
• Posts: 14229
April 10th, 2019 at 8:03:50 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Any comments on the following strategy?

1. Never play a heart, unless it's your only choice.
2. Given the choice of multiple non-heart cards to play, play the one with fewer outs. For any given card, the number of outs is the number of remaining cards that match in rank or suit, not counting hearts.

Here is an example:

The 3c has 13 outs -- the 11 clubs left in the deck and 2 non-heart threes.
The 8c has 12 outs -- the 11 clubs left in the deck and the 1 non-heart eight.

So, play the 8c, because it has fewer outs.

Any situations this advice doesn't cover?

Bad example? 2 non-heart 8s remain.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
michael99000
Joined: Jul 10, 2010
• Posts: 2109
April 10th, 2019 at 8:28:12 AM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

Quote: Wizard

Any comments on the following strategy?

1. Never play a heart, unless it's your only choice.
2. Given the choice of multiple non-heart cards to play, play the one with fewer outs. For any given card, the number of outs is the number of remaining cards that match in rank or suit, not counting hearts.

Here is an example:

The 3c has 13 outs -- the 11 clubs left in the deck and 2 non-heart threes.
The 8c has 12 outs -- the 11 clubs left in the deck and the 1 non-heart eight.

So, play the 8c, because it has fewer outs.

Any situations this advice doesn't cover?

Bad example? 2 non-heart 8s remain.

Isn’t that why he’s saying hold onto the 3? Because the last dealer card is more likely to be a 3 than an 8
MidwestAP
Joined: Feb 19, 2012
• Posts: 1262
April 10th, 2019 at 1:22:44 PM permalink
The 3c has 24 outs -- the 11 clubs left in the deck, the 2 non-heart threes, and 11 hearts left in the deck.
The 8c has 24 outs -- the 11 clubs left in the deck, the 2 non-heart eights, and the 11 hearts left in the deck.

A better example would be if the first shredded card was the eight of spades, then

The 3c has 25 outs -- the 11 clubs left in the deck, the 2 non-heart threes, and 12 hearts left in the deck.
The 8c has 24 outs -- the 11 clubs left in the deck, the 1 non-heart eights, and the 12 hearts left in the deck.
charliepatrick
Joined: Jun 17, 2011
• Posts: 2114
Thanks for this post from:
April 10th, 2019 at 1:54:00 PM permalink
There does seem to be some logic at times, it may not be comprehensive but here's some ideas.
(a) Hold back Hearts if you can.

(b) First trick, you have no Hearts, where first card is a Heart
• S S S (i) With As Ks Qs it doesn't matter.
• S S=D (ii) With As Ks Ad play As (to leave two ranks and two suits)
• S S D (iii) With As Ks Qd play either As or Ks (to leave two suits)
• S=D C (iv) With As Ad Kc play either As or Ad (to leave two ranks)
• S D C (v) With As Kd Qc it doesn't matter

(c) First trick, you have no Hearts, where first card is non-Heart (say As)
• S S S (i) With Ks Qs Js it doesn't matter.
• S S=D (ii) With Ks Qs Kd play Ks (to leave two different ranks)
• S S D (iii) With Ks Qs Jd play either Ks or Qs (to leave two different suits)
• S D C (iv) With Ks Qd Jc play the Spade (only one way to play)
• S D= C (v) With Ks Ad Qc (I would guess play Ks or Ad - Ks=13 outs (Kd, Kc, 11 spades), Ad=13 outs (Ac, 12 diamonds) )
• S D= C (vi) With Ks Ad Ac play Ad or Ac (Ks=13 outs (Kd, Kc, 11 spades), Ad=only 12 outs as Ac gone (12 diamonds) )
• D D C (vii) With Ad Kd Ac play Ad (to leave two different suits and ranks)
• D D C (viii) With Kd Qd Ac play Clubs (only one way to play)
• D D D (ix) With Ad Kd Qd play Ad (only one way to play)

(d) First trick, you have one heart, where the first card is a Heart.
• H X X (i) It doesn't matter which non-Heart you play.

(e) First trick, you have one heart, where the first card is a non-Heart (say As).
• H S S (i) With two Spades it doesn't matter.
• H S D (ii) With a choice of a Spade or a matching Rank, it doesn't matter (same logic as Ks Ad Qc vs As)

(f) First trick, you have two hearts.
• H H S (i) If possible play the non-heart.

(g) Second trick, play the one which has the fewest outs given what you see.
beachbumbabs
Joined: May 21, 2013
• Posts: 14229
April 10th, 2019 at 1:56:43 PM permalink
Quote: MidwestAP

The 3c has 24 outs -- the 11 clubs left in the deck, the 2 non-heart threes, and 11 hearts left in the deck.
The 8c has 24 outs -- the 11 clubs left in the deck, the 2 non-heart eights, and the 11 hearts left in the deck.

A better example would be if the first shredded card was the eight of spades, then

The 3c has 25 outs -- the 11 clubs left in the deck, the 2 non-heart threes, and 12 hearts left in the deck.
The 8c has 24 outs -- the 11 clubs left in the deck, the 1 non-heart eights, and the 12 hearts left in the deck.

Hey! Nice to see you again. Long time.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.