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Commish
Commish
Joined: Jan 5, 2013
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March 10th, 2019 at 7:02:47 PM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds
another aggressive example:
you have J4 offsuit.
flop 77Q
basic strategy says bet 1x on J high on the river.
would you bet 2x on the flop?

You are betting one time on the river because you are making one bet to protect two bets. It is definitely not a 2x bet.
Vegasrider
Vegasrider
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March 10th, 2019 at 7:12:50 PM permalink
And if the board was not paired, and there was another over card on the board, I would be reluctant to call since I'm not going to get paid off on the ante despite that it may fall under the 21 out card rule.
100xOdds
100xOdds
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April 13th, 2019 at 3:06:21 PM permalink
Which of the wiz's basic strategy would you deviate from if you saw another players cards?

For me, it would be betting 4x for flushes and low pairs.
Ie: q6 suited if another player has 2 of same suit or pair of 5s if you see another player having a 5
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
CharmedQuark
CharmedQuark
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April 13th, 2019 at 5:21:07 PM permalink
I try not to look at other player's cards. So I don't deviate from BS. Then again, I have very few winning sessions. The dealer just seems to always get the one card to beat my hand - in particular holding an Ace and betting 4X. I don't believe knowing other cards and altering BS improves the return, if at all.
beachbumbabs
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beachbumbabs
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April 13th, 2019 at 11:47:21 PM permalink
Quote: Vegasrider

And if the board was not paired, and there was another over card on the board, I would be reluctant to call since I'm not going to get paid off on the ante despite that it may fall under the 21 out card rule.



I don't think I agree. Any over card on the board is a kicker the dealer doesn't have. KQxxx, without 4 to a flush or outside straight still gives the dealer only 19. 15 will cost your ante, blind, and play. 4 will only cost blind and play. I would play the jack kicker either way qx (pair or 2 overcards on the board ).
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
100xOdds
100xOdds
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May 10th, 2019 at 12:32:16 AM permalink
30hrs played, avg bet $100 ($50 ante,$50 blinds),Theo $5100
Uth is technically 2.185% he.

Doing simple math, my casino thinks 75 hands per hr??

Edit:
Oh man, I reread the wiz's article.
The max Royal payout is$5000 aka $10 ante.
So the true payout for $50 ante is $25k.

For every $100 I'm shorted of true payout, it's costing me .3%.
So being shorted $20k, the house edge is 60%???

That can't be right.
What's wrong with my math?
Last edited by: 100xOdds on May 10, 2019
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
Wizard
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Wizard
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May 10th, 2019 at 6:41:26 AM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

30hrs played, avg bet $100 ($50 ante,$50 blinds),Theo $5100
Uth is technically 2.185% he.

Doing simple math, my casino thinks 75 hands per hr??

Edit:
Oh man, I reread the wiz's article.
The max Royal payout is$5000 aka $10 ante.
So the true payout for $50 ante is $25k.

For every $100 I'm shorted of true payout, it's costing me .3%.
So being shorted $20k, the house edge is 60%???

That can't be right.
What's wrong with my math?



As a reminder, the Blind bet should pay 500 to 1 with a royal flush. A max $5,000 win on a $50 Blind bet is 100 to 1 only.

The probability of a winning player royal flush (not counting a royal on the board, which would push) is 4*combin(47,2)/combin(52,7) - 4/combin(52,5) = 0.00003078.

Getting shortchanged 400 units with every winning royal costs the player 0.00003078 * 400 = 1.23%.
Last edited by: Wizard on Jul 8, 2019
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
100xOdds
100xOdds
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June 23rd, 2019 at 2:01:31 PM permalink
lost $1500 (two $750 sessions) playing $15 ante + $15 blind. (no Trips bet)
couldnt win a hand to save my life. :(

yeah, i know.. walk away when you're not having fun.
and i should have gotten up when the dealer won 6 straight right off the bat including cracking my KK with a straight. (he had 59)
but but but i just sat down...
ugg....
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
100xOdds
100xOdds
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June 24th, 2019 at 6:54:28 AM permalink
What's the variance of ultimate Texas Holdem?
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
Wizard
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Wizard
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June 24th, 2019 at 12:16:27 PM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

What's the variance of ultimate Texas Holdem?



Relative to the Ante bet, the variance is 24.40 and the standard deviation is 4.94. Similar to video poker.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.

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