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beachbumbabs
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March 3rd, 2019 at 1:37:39 PM permalink
Quote: jmills

No, he's saying the flop is A-5-8, two of which are suited.



Ok, thanks. I don't see, then, anything that would make the deuces worth a 2x bet. If the board paired, and you held 2pr with the deuces, I'd bet 2x. If your deuce made 4 to a flush, I'd bet 2x. I can't think of any other deuce hands I'd bet 2x. Maybe AK2 rainbow with that holding would make the queen powerful enough to bet it.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
rdw4potus
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March 3rd, 2019 at 4:28:48 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

Ok, thanks. I don't see, then, anything that would make the deuces worth a 2x bet. If the board paired, and you held 2pr with the deuces, I'd bet 2x. If your deuce made 4 to a flush, I'd bet 2x. I can't think of any other deuce hands I'd bet 2x. Maybe AK2 rainbow with that holding would make the queen powerful enough to bet it.



Yeah, this is A58/Q2 rainbow. Not sure why anyone would do anything but check. The queen is worth a 1x bet on some rivers, but there's just nothing to bet after the flop.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
Vegasrider
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March 3rd, 2019 at 7:15:16 PM permalink
Quote: Hunterhill

Betting your ace was still the right play even with two other aces out.
As for re-evaluating calling with high cards,you shouldn't let a few observations change your play,just do what the Strategy says.
This is similar to a bj player saying they never hit 12vs 2 because they always bust.



Whenever I have an Ace, Iím figuring that my Ace will be good enough to hold up on its own. If I see that I have an Ace, I donít even bother looking at the other card and I automatically bet 4x. I let the other card become a mystery card,

Calling down with a high card against a non paired board youíre laying too much. Assuming your high card is good, itís only even money. At least when the board is paired, youíre getting 2:1 against a board that has a less probability of the dealer pairing up. Is it really worth trying to win it by risking even more money against a board favouring the dealer. Like i had mentioned, Iím starting to re-evaluate this play.
100xOdds
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March 4th, 2019 at 5:19:06 AM permalink
Quote: rdw4potus

Yeah, this is A58/Q2 rainbow. Not sure why anyone would do anything but check. The queen is worth a 1x bet on some rivers, but there's just nothing to bet after the flop.

well, unless there's a 4 flush by the river (and I don't have a flush), I will play that Q high for 1x. I was thinking why not play it on the flop for 2x?

I think I just answered my question. Wait till the river to bet incase there's a 4 flush.
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Vegasrider
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March 4th, 2019 at 6:50:52 AM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

well, unless there's a 4 flush by the river (and I don't have a flush), I will play that Q high for 1x. I was thinking why not play it on the flop for 2x?

I think I just answered my question. Wait till the river to bet incase there's a 4 flush.



Now if the flop was K K 9 and rainbow or even 2 to a flush, would you bet your Q high on the flop? I will.
100xOdds
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March 4th, 2019 at 2:05:25 PM permalink
Quote: Vegasrider

Now if the flop was K K 9 and rainbow or even 2 to a flush, would you bet your Q high on the flop? I will.

so if you have k3 offsuit and the board is 55J rainbow or 2flush, you would bet 2x?

hm.. wonder if we can get the Wiz to look at this aggressive strategy?
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Vegasrider
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March 4th, 2019 at 5:38:50 PM permalink
Obviously I'll bet 2x with the ace as well, not just the Q. When the flop contains a high pair, with another relatively high card vs your example of a low pair. My reasoning is that with a high pair and a 3rd high card, in the event the board double pairs, it will cancel out any hidden pair held by the dealer, making my high card more valuable. And as I had mentioned, when the board is paired, it's harder for the dealer to pair up. No doubt, it's on the aggressive side.
100xOdds
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March 4th, 2019 at 6:58:28 PM permalink
Quote: Vegasrider

Obviously I'll bet 2x with the ace as well, not just the Q.
When the flop contains a high pair, with another relatively high card vs your example of a low pair. My reasoning is that with a high pair and a 3rd high card, in the event the board double pairs, it will cancel out any hidden pair held by the dealer, making my high card more valuable. And as I had mentioned, when the board is paired, it's harder for the dealer to pair up. No doubt, it's on the aggressive side.


um.. aren't you supposed to bet 4x preflop on any Ace? :)

another aggressive example:
you have J4 offsuit.
flop 77Q
basic strategy says bet 1x on J high on the river.
would you bet 2x on the flop?
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Vegasrider
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March 4th, 2019 at 7:01:44 PM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

um.. aren't you supposed to bet 4x preflop on any Ace? :)

another aggressive example:
you have J4 offsuit.
flop 77Q
basic strategy says bet 1x on J high on the river.
would you bet 2x on the flop?



Oh yeah, forgot, yes Ace 4X preflop. Lol... I'll check, having a low kicker can be at problem at tines too if you tie with the dealer on your high card
Wizard
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Thanks for this post from:
100xOdds
March 6th, 2019 at 7:44:57 PM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

another aggressive example:
you have J4 offsuit.
flop 77Q
basic strategy says bet 1x on J high on the river.
would you bet 2x on the flop?



I don't think so. You don't meet any of the conditions to make the 2x raise. The pair is not hidden and J/4 is easily outkicked.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Commish
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March 10th, 2019 at 7:02:47 PM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds
another aggressive example:
you have J4 offsuit.
flop 77Q
basic strategy says bet 1x on J high on the river.
would you bet 2x on the flop?

You are betting one time on the river because you are making one bet to protect two bets. It is definitely not a 2x bet.
Vegasrider
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March 10th, 2019 at 7:12:50 PM permalink
And if the board was not paired, and there was another over card on the board, I would be reluctant to call since I'm not going to get paid off on the ante despite that it may fall under the 21 out card rule.
100xOdds
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April 13th, 2019 at 3:06:21 PM permalink
Which of the wiz's basic strategy would you deviate from if you saw another players cards?

For me, it would be betting 4x for flushes and low pairs.
Ie: q6 suited if another player has 2 of same suit or pair of 5s if you see another player having a 5
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CharmedQuark
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April 13th, 2019 at 5:21:07 PM permalink
I try not to look at other player's cards. So I don't deviate from BS. Then again, I have very few winning sessions. The dealer just seems to always get the one card to beat my hand - in particular holding an Ace and betting 4X. I don't believe knowing other cards and altering BS improves the return, if at all.
beachbumbabs
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April 13th, 2019 at 11:47:21 PM permalink
Quote: Vegasrider

And if the board was not paired, and there was another over card on the board, I would be reluctant to call since I'm not going to get paid off on the ante despite that it may fall under the 21 out card rule.



I don't think I agree. Any over card on the board is a kicker the dealer doesn't have. KQxxx, without 4 to a flush or outside straight still gives the dealer only 19. 15 will cost your ante, blind, and play. 4 will only cost blind and play. I would play the jack kicker either way qx (pair or 2 overcards on the board ).
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
100xOdds
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May 10th, 2019 at 12:32:16 AM permalink
30hrs played, avg bet $100 ($50 ante,$50 blinds),Theo $5100
Uth is technically 2.185% he.

Doing simple math, my casino thinks 75 hands per hr??

Edit:
Oh man, I reread the wiz's article.
The max Royal payout is$5000 aka $10 ante.
So the true payout for $50 ante is $25k.

For every $100 I'm shorted of true payout, it's costing me .3%.
So being shorted $20k, the house edge is 60%???

That can't be right.
What's wrong with my math?
Last edited by: 100xOdds on May 10, 2019
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Wizard
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May 10th, 2019 at 6:41:26 AM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

30hrs played, avg bet $100 ($50 ante,$50 blinds),Theo $5100
Uth is technically 2.185% he.

Doing simple math, my casino thinks 75 hands per hr??

Edit:
Oh man, I reread the wiz's article.
The max Royal payout is$5000 aka $10 ante.
So the true payout for $50 ante is $25k.

For every $100 I'm shorted of true payout, it's costing me .3%.
So being shorted $20k, the house edge is 60%???

That can't be right.
What's wrong with my math?



As a reminder, the Blind bet should pay 500 to 1 with a royal flush. A max $5,000 win on a $50 Blind bet is 100 to 1 only.

The probability of a winning player royal flush (not counting a royal on the board, which would push) is 4*combin(47,2)/combin(52,7) - 4/combin(52,5) = 0.00003078.

Getting shortchanged 400 units with every winning royal costs the player 0.00003078 * 400 = 1.23%.
Last edited by: Wizard on Jul 8, 2019
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
100xOdds
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June 23rd, 2019 at 2:01:31 PM permalink
lost $1500 (two $750 sessions) playing $15 ante + $15 blind. (no Trips bet)
couldnt win a hand to save my life. :(

yeah, i know.. walk away when you're not having fun.
and i should have gotten up when the dealer won 6 straight right off the bat including cracking my KK with a straight. (he had 59)
but but but i just sat down...
ugg....
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
100xOdds
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June 24th, 2019 at 6:54:28 AM permalink
What's the variance of ultimate Texas Holdem?
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Wizard
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June 24th, 2019 at 12:16:27 PM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

What's the variance of ultimate Texas Holdem?



Relative to the Ante bet, the variance is 24.40 and the standard deviation is 4.94. Similar to video poker.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
100xOdds
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June 26th, 2019 at 9:40:19 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Relative to the Ante bet, the variance is 24.40 and the standard deviation is 4.94. Similar to video poker.


geez.. so variance like Double Bonus?

and if im doing $25 ante/$25 blind for $50 total bet, then that's equivalent to max betting $10 denom in vp? :o
if so, then $1000 bankroll isnt enough per session with that variance! wow...
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Mosca
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June 26th, 2019 at 1:42:32 PM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

lost $1500 (two $750 sessions) playing $15 ante + $15 blind. (no Trips bet)
couldnt win a hand to save my life. :(

yeah, i know.. walk away when you're not having fun.
and i should have gotten up when the dealer won 6 straight right off the bat including cracking my KK with a straight. (he had 59)
but but but i just sat down...
ugg....



I played at that level for a week at Atlantis (Bahamas), and at 11AM on the last day of the trip I was up $50... and then I lost $900 in about an hour and a half while waiting for the airport shuttle. It was so fast, the guy next to me went to the bathroom, came back and asked if I'd colored up to leave.
A falling knife has no handle.
EALaurance
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June 27th, 2019 at 2:09:51 AM permalink
A local casino offers the option to play multiple spots (up to 3). There are a few requirements, min. bet increases as you play more spots, you have to play these spots blind (your second and/or third hand), and must bet 3-4x. Could a person calculate the house edge by only using only the top of the chart provided in your analysis? When I try this and total only the hand combos listed with "Large" I end with a return of -70.35%.
miplet
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June 27th, 2019 at 10:04:02 AM permalink
Quote: EALaurance

A local casino offers the option to play multiple spots (up to 3). There are a few requirements, min. bet increases as you play more spots, you have to play these spots blind (your second and/or third hand), and must bet 3-4x. Could a person calculate the house edge by only using only the top of the chart provided in your analysis? When I try this and total only the hand combos listed with "Large" I end with a return of -70.35%.

About 44% according to the math I did in 2013 found here.
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gordonm888
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June 27th, 2019 at 10:21:27 AM permalink
Quote: EALaurance

A local casino offers the option to play multiple spots (up to 3). There are a few requirements, min. bet increases as you play more spots, you have to play these spots blind (your second and/or third hand), and must bet 3-4x. Could a person calculate the house edge by only using only the top of the chart provided in your analysis? When I try this and total only the hand combos listed with "Large" I end with a return of -70.35%.



Quote: miplet

About 44% according to the math I did in 2013 found here.



I am confused by the meaning of "playing a blind hand" in UTH. Does that mean that you make the required up-front bets and then bet 3-4X your ante before seeing the first two cards? That is nuts, why would anyone do this? Is miplet's -44% calculated as a fraction of the ante bet or as a fraction of the total amount bet before seeing the cards?
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EALaurance
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June 27th, 2019 at 10:26:35 AM permalink
Thanks! So Iím on track but need to add the hands thatís are listed ďfoldĒ into proper categories.
EALaurance
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June 27th, 2019 at 10:29:26 AM permalink
youíre right about a blind hand. The 44% is of total wagers I believe.
miplet
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June 27th, 2019 at 2:38:11 PM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

Quote: miplet

About 44% according to the math I did in 2013 found here.



I am confused by the meaning of "playing a blind hand" in UTH. Does that mean that you make the required up-front bets and then bet 3-4X your ante before seeing the first two cards? That is nuts, why would anyone do this? Is miplet's -44% calculated as a fraction of the ante bet or as a fraction of the total amount bet before seeing the cards?

Itís just the Ante. If you bet $1 on the Ante, $1 on the Blind, and $4 on the Play, you should expect to lose about 44¢.
ďMan BabesĒ #AxelFabulous
Vegasrider
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June 27th, 2019 at 7:28:11 PM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

lost $1500 (two $750 sessions) playing $15 ante + $15 blind. (no Trips bet)
couldnt win a hand to save my life. :(

yeah, i know.. walk away when you're not having fun.
and i should have gotten up when the dealer won 6 straight right off the bat including cracking my KK with a straight. (he had 59)
but but but i just sat down...
ugg....



Been there, play enough it happens. I really like the hand shuffle since the player can cut the cards. You canít blame having a bad hand or tough beat on the dealer if you were the one cutting the cards.
100xOdds
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September 9th, 2019 at 3:44:00 PM permalink
Quote: Vegasrider

Quote: 100xOdds

lost $1500 (two $750 sessions) playing $15 ante + $15 blind. (no Trips bet)
couldnt win a hand to save my life. :(

yeah, i know.. walk away when you're not having fun.
and i should have gotten up when the dealer won 6 straight right off the bat including cracking my KK with a straight. (he had 59)
but but but i just sat down...
ugg....



Been there, play enough it happens. I really like the hand shuffle since the player can cut the cards. You canít blame having a bad hand or tough beat on the dealer if you were the one cutting the cards.


$500 bankroll, 15 ante& blind.
6 sessions and never been up once.
Down $2500.

I know the shuffler is random but when the dealer gets a straight flush twice in an hr...

I've switched strategy to quitting for the session when the dealer wins 4 in a row.
Mathematically, i know it doesn't matter.
But I'm not having any fun when he's on a win steak.
And when you're not having fun, quit...
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
100xOdds
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September 15th, 2019 at 6:28:34 AM permalink
Bought in for $500, playing $10 ante/$10 blind with no Trips.
Lost that. Bought in for $400 more.
Lost all $900 in 2 1/2 hrs following the wiz's basic strategy with just 1 other player at the table. :(

Variance of this game is about 24, similar to double bonus vp.
But would it be similar to $5 db ($25/spin) because of the $20 initial bet or more similar to $10 db ($50/spin) when I add the 1x/2x/4x bet?

(Want to see how many deviations my losses are aka how badly I'm running.)
Last edited by: 100xOdds on Sep 15, 2019
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Vegasrider
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December 2nd, 2019 at 6:32:04 PM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

Bought in for $500, playing $10 ante/$10 blind with no Trips.
Lost that. Bought in for $400 more.
Lost all $900 in 2 1/2 hrs following the wiz's basic strategy with just 1 other player at the table. :(

Variance of this game is about 24, similar to double bonus vp.
But would it be similar to $5 db ($25/spin) because of the $20 initial bet or more similar to $10 db ($50/spin) when I add the 1x/2x/4x bet?

(Want to see how many deviations my losses are aka how badly I'm running.)



$500 seems to be my average buy in . I too bet $10 with no trips. Been playing this for two years now, almost by the book. I have deviated a bit by not 4X K6 and K5 off suit, and I generally will not call with a high card in the hole unless the board is paired. I donít like to risk betting an additional $10 in hopes of getting paid even money, and possibly losing all $30. Call it surrender if you like.
beachbumbabs
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December 2nd, 2019 at 7:52:47 PM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

Bought in for $500, playing $10 ante/$10 blind with no Trips.
Lost that. Bought in for $400 more.
Lost all $900 in 2 1/2 hrs following the wiz's basic strategy with just 1 other player at the table. :(

Variance of this game is about 24, similar to double bonus vp.
But would it be similar to $5 db ($25/spin) because of the $20 initial bet or more similar to $10 db ($50/spin) when I add the 1x/2x/4x bet?

(Want to see how many deviations my losses are aka how badly I'm running.)



In my experience, you ran pretty bad. It usually turns around in $500 playing $10 ante for me.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
100xOdds
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December 5th, 2019 at 8:42:17 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

In my experience, you ran pretty bad. It usually turns around in $500 playing $10 ante for me.

do you press your bets or just flat bet?
and when do you quit? (besides losing your buy in)
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beachbumbabs
December 6th, 2019 at 1:56:18 PM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

do you press your bets or just flat bet?
and when do you quit? (besides losing your buy in)



That is one area that I have yet to figure out, knowing when to press or if its even advised to vary your bets. I've run it on the simulator. But generally my bets remain flat. The key is how often your 4X bets win and to know when to place them since 99.5 % of the players who I have witness don't know or either just don't.

Since I consider this game as a slow grind, I have the patience to play around 8 hrs, sometimes less and sometimes more. I treat this game like its a real live poker game. I am willing to rebuy just like I would in a live poker game. I have been in $1000 betting $10 and have gotten out multiple times. I will limit my loss to a dime, that might have happened a couple of times.
beachbumbabs
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December 6th, 2019 at 5:10:59 PM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

do you press your bets or just flat bet?
and when do you quit? (besides losing your buy in)


I flat bet. Cards shuffled every hand, so have no memory, and the game is very volatile, so I enjoy the roller coaster ride without getting too far underwater.

I quit when I've doubled up, or lost what I was willing to lose.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
100xOdds
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December 7th, 2019 at 10:45:57 AM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

I flat bet. Cards shuffled every hand, so have no memory, and the game is very volatile, so I enjoy the roller coaster ride without getting too far underwater.

wiz has said this game has a variance of 25, similar to double bonus in video poker.
var=25 is considered high?
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100xOdds
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December 7th, 2019 at 4:19:39 PM permalink
some 4x bets are -ev but it's less -ev than checking.
ie: k5o checking = -0.1511 but betting 4x is -0.1176

but other 4x bets are +ev and more +ev than checking.
ie: A2s checking = +0.1665 but betting 4x = +0.3999

Can there be a betting system applied only when the 4x bet is +EV?
ie: modified Martingale

- Start at $5 ante
- every time you lose a 4x bet, you increase your Ante bet by $5. for 2x/1x bets or even fold after the river card, your Ante bet stays the same no matter win or lose
- you stay at that bet level until you win or lose at 4x bet level.
a) if you win, drop back to $5
b) if you lose, increase by $5
c) rinse/repeat

this modified Martingale system only applies to 4x on +EV bets.
so if you bet 4x on k5o and lose, your bet stays the same since k5o is -EV.

Example-
Hand 1 ($5 Ante): k5o, bet 4x, and you lose
Hand 2 ($5): JJ, bet 4x, and you lose
Hand 3 ($10): 78 suited, bet 1x and you win
Hand 4 ($10): AKo, bet 4x and you lose
Hand 5 ($15): j2o, you fold on the river
Hand 6 ($15): KQ suited, bet 4x, and you win
Hand 7 ($5): ...

the theory being if it's +EV, betting systems work.
if not modified Martingale, then what system could be used?
if not true and betting system wont work on +EV 4x bets, then why not? Where's the flaw in my logic?
Last edited by: 100xOdds on Dec 7, 2019
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100xOdds
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January 26th, 2020 at 7:38:27 AM permalink
so i got my 2019 win/loss statement.
i lost $10k in table games. the only table game i played was UTH.

i bet $10 ante, $10 blinds. no Trips or other side bets.
i follow the Wiz's strategy.
if i win 2 in a row, i press $5 on every win thereafter. when i lose, i drop back to $10.

hopefully variance will be nicer to me in 2020!
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
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January 26th, 2020 at 8:51:50 AM permalink
100x odds - - I have had almost identical experience as you with playing UTH (only table game I play). Loser over time, but with some nice intermittent wins. Not enough to cover the loses.

Yes the variance (swings) are brutal and especially for me on the down side. I want to believe that the 'worm will turn' and let me recuperate. Never never happens. Only when I'm ahead and then it's downhill very rapidly. I never press my bets ($15-$15) and play BS without hesitation on the 4X bets (I get a lot of stares from the other people at the table). These are what hurt me the most sometimes losing 3 or 4 4X bets in a row and I just seem to never recover.

I think the issue for me is when to leave the table (both on the up side and down side) or maybe dropping my stop loss number.

Good luck on your 2020 play.

P.S. I really think it's that damn shuffler (tongue in cheek) . . . ;-)
100xOdds
100xOdds
Joined: Feb 5, 2012
  • Threads: 632
  • Posts: 4217
April 22nd, 2020 at 11:54:48 PM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

Bought in for $500, playing $10 ante/$10 blind with no Trips.
Lost that. Bought in for $400 more.
Lost all $900 in 2 1/2 hrs following the wiz's basic strategy with just 1 other player at the table. :(

Variance of this game is about 24, similar to deuces wild vp.

i decided to calculate how badly i was running.

35 hands/hr, 2.5 hrs = 88hands
variance 24.4
st dev 4.939635614

OriginalSD: sd * bet = 4.94*$20 = 98.8
sd(88 hands): sqrt(88)*98.8= $927

my $900 loss playing 2.5hrs at $10 ante/$10 blind is just 1 sd off of norm?!?
At least i feel better that i wasnt running that badly
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
Vegasrider
Vegasrider
Joined: Dec 23, 2017
  • Threads: 87
  • Posts: 961
April 23rd, 2020 at 1:52:43 PM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

i decided to calculate how badly i was running.

35 hands/hr, 2.5 hrs = 88hands
variance 24.4
st dev 4.939635614

OriginalSD: sd * bet = 4.94*$20 = 98.8
sd(88 hands): sqrt(88)*98.8= $927

my $900 loss playing 2.5hrs at $10 ante/$10 blind is just 1 sd off of norm?!?
At least i feel better that i wasnt running that badly



I feel your pain. Been there, done that. Buy in for a nickel and rebuy for another 4 or 5.. Rebuys are just part of the game, just like playing live poker, you sometimes can't win off your initial buy in even if its well above the minimum buy in. Back in the days I use to play 30-60 Hold'em at the Bellagio, my normal buy in was 2k or two racks. But sometimes I needed to reload. Even Roy Cook had to reload at times, LOL.

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