Bankroll needed to bank baccarat

In california cardrooms you can play as the "house" by banking.

What are the maximum size total bets you could take on someone betting banker? It is like Ez baccarat and 1% edge

What is the maximum total bet you can take on Dragon bets? (it pays 40:1) The edge is 7.61%

Assume the bankroll you have is $350000, and assume you want a 2% risk of ruin or less

Impossible to get an answer to your question without the commission schedule.

The fee to bank is $3/ hand a flat rate

There is no commission if you win or lose, you just pay $3 every hand, I act as the "house" to clarify.

3$ per deal you bank, or 3$ per hand in the deal you bank?

Quote: Runlikegod777

What are the maximum size total bets you could take on someone betting banker? It is like Ez baccarat and 1% edge

There is a 1% player edge in the EZ Baccarat?

Where is it a flat $3? At my casino it's based off of the total action on the table.

it is $3 flat rate. ($3/per deal)

I am just looking for the most base action can take on one hand, and the most dragon money can take on one hand.

i.e. max $2500 action on one side (obviously if there is 4000 on banker, and $1500 on player, it is only $2500 risk)

i.e. max action on dragon per hand $250

I dont know what the actual #'s are above though, if someone can calculate based on $350000 roll, and 2% risk ruin.

I posted the collection fee now, is this tough to calculate? Can the Wizard or anyone help with this, would be most appreciated!

If there was no collection fee, the max you would allow on dragon is $332.50, if my math is correct. The collection thing is wonky because it’s a flat fee, not a %. I believe you get hornswoggled when you’re banking a table when your EV is less than $3/round.

Yes, and I never bank when my e.v. is less than $3/hand. (I usually average about $8-10/hand profit in banked hands) Was it hard to come up with that $332.50? I didnt know how to go about calculating it. And I wonder how much the collection fee, contributes to the risk of ruin, maybe like $40 off that, so estimate $282.50 max? (trying to ballpark)


Also what do you think for the max base action?

You’d need to calculate your full kelly bet.

You’d be laying 40-to-1, so your advantage is 0.0761/40. Let’s call that ‘x’.

Consequently, your full kelly bet is your advantage divided by the payoff. In this case, the payoff (to you) is 1/40.

So you’d make a max bet of x/40 = 7.61% of your bankroll. Full kelly is 13.5% ROR. Square that number to get to 1.8225% (if memory serves), which is close enough to 2% ROR. That means you divide your max bet by 2.

7.61% / 2 = 3.8%.

0.038 * 350,000 = $13,300. That’s the most you should be willing to lose on the dragon bet. $13,300 / 40 = $332.50.

So the most you should allow on dragon is $332.50. Also, I’m not sure how to mix in the $3 rake off the top of my head. My instinct just says to just adjust the numbers by $3 (so if you lose, you lose an extra $3, and if you win, you win $3 fewer).



You can do the same thing for player, banker, and any other side bets. I’m not entirely familiar with how banking works with the 5% juice thing, but you can work it out the same.


Btw, idk how the dragon bet works and how you win on it, but there also may exist co-variance. Also remember you should allow bets up to infinity if they’re betting against each other. If there are bets than win together, then you’re going to want to decrease your max bet on that.

Really appreciate your time to work that out. Can anyone else confirm the above is correct, and how to factor in the $3 fee/hand?


Additonally for a base bet of 1% house edge with $350000 bankroll, I think it is .01/2 = .005 (half kelly about 1.8% risk ruin), so 350000*.005 is $1750 the max action on base action? Is that correct?

Quote: Runlikegod777

Really appreciate your time to work that out. Can anyone else confirm the above is correct, and how to factor in the $3 fee/hand?


Additonally for a base bet of 1% house edge with $350000 bankroll, I think it is .01/2 = .005 (half kelly about 1.8% risk ruin), so 350000*.005 is $1750 the max action on base action? Is that correct?

If I use these #'s.

350000 bankroll
$1750 action on banker.
$332 on dragon.
and $3 bank fee I pay win or lose, how much would the $3 fee affect it?

I appreciate RS work above and think he is most likely correct, but he wasnt 100% sure how collection would work out. Could anyone confirm his #'s were right or close?

Quote: Runlikegod777

I appreciate RS work above and think he is most likely correct, but he wasn't 100% sure how collection would work out. Could anyone confirm his #'s were right or close?

to me RS numbers look close enough and is just one way to come up with some values.
Less than a $500k bankroll is very small and many teams use that as a start value if at all.

Using Kelly, imo, is not the way to go here.
Just like in sports betting, flat betting out performs Kelly most times simply because of the number of bets possible and the lowered variance is preferred when using small stakes.
That is the key, I feel.
How many bets would be made, on average.
I would simulate this to get some other results first.

a 2% RoR is very high also in my opinion
1 in 50, could be a disaster
1 would rather see a 1 in 1000 to start. That can always be adjusted as the bankroll increases.

one also has to think about cheating against you.
Teams love to cheat against other teams, especially in CA, because they can
what about 'back betting' that is very common in CA casinos/card rooms?
how much will you allow?

good luck to you