Poll

3 votes (15.78%)
4 votes (21.05%)
10 votes (52.63%)
3 votes (15.78%)
No votes (0%)
2 votes (10.52%)
1 vote (5.26%)
4 votes (21.05%)
2 votes (10.52%)
3 votes (15.78%)

19 members have voted

miplet
miplet
Joined: Dec 1, 2009
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  • Posts: 1975
October 4th, 2018 at 4:50:21 PM permalink
I agree with Wizard’s analyses.

gordonm888:
You should get the same EV with 3 dragons. You list 2 different EV's depending on if they are using a wild.
HandPaysWaysEV
win221959621.9955102
tie040
Total1960021.9955102
“Man Babes” #AxelFabulous
gordonm888
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gordonm888
Joined: Feb 18, 2015
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October 4th, 2018 at 5:40:07 PM permalink
Quote: miplet

I agree with Wizard’s analyses.

gordonm888:
You should get the same EV with 3 dragons. You list 2 different EV's depending on if they are using a wild.

HandPaysWaysEV
win221959621.9955102
tie040
Total1960021.9955102



Yes, I agree with your point on 3 dragons. Since posting that table, I had already noticed this "3 Dragons discrepancy" and I had found an error in my formula for the probability of Tieing with trips. Correcting that error caused my calculated EV value to move even further away from Wiz's results.

I accept that Wiz's and your analysis is correct, and that mine has an error in it. My spreadsheet is completely different than a looping code- the input/starting point is the composition of the starting deck of cards, and it is essentially a 77 x 77 matrix that immediately calculates the Dealer's probability of all 77 possible hands/outcomes for each of the player's 77 starting hands. Thus, the Total EV/HE and the EV for every possible player hand is calculated instantly for any specified "deck composition." As such, it just seems natural that I would have something awry somewhere within the 77x77 cells. However, given 53 starting cards the combinations in the 77x77 cells do all sum to 459,149,600 and the nature of my error has proved to be elusive. I'll probably wake up at 5:00 a.m. tomorrow morning with the sudden realization of what the error is, but right now I'm stumped.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
Wizard
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Wizard 
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October 4th, 2018 at 7:58:48 PM permalink
Thank you Miplet for the third opinion.

Quote: gordonm888

I'll probably wake up at 5:00 a.m. tomorrow morning with the sudden realization of what the error is, but right now I'm stumped.



That happens to me often. I get my best ideas when I let my brain go on a free flow of thoughts. If I'm staring at computer code, I can't see an obvious error right in front of my nose.

This happened with Casino Dominoes. I was out riding my unicycle, letting my mind wander, and realized a mistake in my code.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
gordonm888
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gordonm888
Joined: Feb 18, 2015
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October 5th, 2018 at 6:58:43 AM permalink
LOL, the revelation happened at 8:30 am -which is 5:30 am in Vegas. I now calculate 3.703041%.

I had a single data entry issue on one single hand - Panda-Panda-Dragon -which essentially removed 2 pandas and the wild card (rather than 2 pandas and a dragon) from the deck when calculating dealer outcome probabilities for that one player hand. And I had used manual data entry rather than algorithms to generate the data in this field because there were so few hands to characterize - hence the possibility of a human error.

For the record, here are the corrected tables of probability and EV for every Dragon Poker Hand.
**************************************************************************
In the tables below the hand ID uses this code:
7 = Wild card
6 = Dragon
5 = Phoenix
4 = Tiger
3 = Panda
2 = Monkey
1 = Rabbit
So the lowest possible hand is 321 which is Panda-Monkey-Rabbit. The hand 446 means a pair of Tigers with a Dragon Kicker.

First table is all the hands without a wild card, the 2nd table is all the hands with a wild card. The column labeled EV refers to expected value when making the Play Bet.

Hand
Probability
EV
321
0.046102621
-2.87877551
421
0.040980108
-2.666632653
431
0.036882097
-2.484795918
432
0.030735081
-2.338163265
521
0.035857594
-2.112397959
531
0.032271835
-1.958979592
532
0.026893196
-1.837959184
541
0.028686075
-1.685153061
542
0.023905063
-1.580663265
543
0.021514556
-1.486326531
621
0.030735081
-1.21505102
631
0.027661573
-1.089795918
632
0.023051311
-0.993877551
641
0.024588065
-0.864285714
642
0.020490054
-0.782142857
643
0.018441048
-0.706122449
651
0.021514556
-0.574234694
652
0.017928797
-0.505867347
653
0.016135917
-0.441836735
654
0.014343038
-0.385969388
112
0.028173824
-0.204591837
113
0.025356442
-0.104591837
114
0.022539059
-0.016581633
115
0.019721677
0.059438776
116
0.016904294
0.123469388
221
0.023051311
0.311887755
223
0.017288483
0.463367347
224
0.01536754
0.51494898
225
0.013446598
0.558877551
226
0.011525655
0.595153061
331
0.018441048
1.5
332
0.01536754
1.587857143
334
0.012294032
1.738010204
335
0.010757278
1.775510204
336
0.009220524
1.805969388
441
0.014343038
1.966071429
442
0.011952531
2.030357143
443
0.010757278
2.088673469
445
0.008366772
2.209897959
446
0.007171519
2.228418367
551
0.010757278
2.358826531
552
0.008964399
2.402908163
553
0.008067959
2.44377551
554
0.007171519
2.480357143
556
0.005378639
2.57755102
661
0.00768377
2.678571429
662
0.006403142
2.705816327
663
0.005762828
2.732142857
664
0.005122513
2.755714286
665
0.004482199
2.776530612
111
0.009391275
5.752040816
222
0.005122513
5.847397959
333
0.003585759
5.908928571
444
0.002390506
5.952091837
555
0.001494066
8.973979592
666
0.000853752
21.9955102


Hand
Probability
EV
721
0.005122513
0.495561224
731
0.004610262
1.710306122
732
0.003841885
1.79877551
741
0.004098011
2.13994898
742
0.003415009
2.204846939
743
0.003073508
2.263469388
751
0.003585759
2.478826531
752
0.002988133
2.523520408
753
0.00268932
2.564693878
754
0.002390506
2.601581633
761
0.003073508
2.735204082
762
0.002561257
2.763061224
763
0.002305131
2.789693878
764
0.002049005
2.813571429
765
0.00179288
2.834693878
711
0.002817382
5.818622449
722
0.001920943
5.893316327
733
0.001536754
5.938316327
744
0.001195253
5.968622449
755
0.00089644
8.983163265
766
0.000640314
21.9955102
Last edited by: gordonm888 on Oct 5, 2018
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
charliepatrick
charliepatrick
Joined: Jun 17, 2011
  • Threads: 34
  • Posts: 2446
October 5th, 2018 at 9:01:54 AM permalink
I get the 3.703041% but interestingly (when I had a bug in the code) got 1.297% if there was a bonus for any pair. Also if you had 3 decks the HE=.103%, with more decks the player gets an advantage (because it's easier to make good hands).
I used a pack of cards - using a generic coding that could cater for other pack distributions! So a Joker is Wild and Ace = any Dragon etc.
* A A
117 576
24
0
21.995 510
* A K
114 180
360
3 060
2.834 694
* A Q
113 736
420
3 444
2.813 571
* A J
113 238
480
3 882
2.789 694
* A T
112 686
540
4 374
2.763 061
* A 9
112 080
660
4 860
2.735 204
* K K
117 420
60
120
8.983 163
* K Q
109 476
630
7 494
2.601 582
* K J
108 708
720
8 172
2.564 694
* K T
107 856
810
8 934
2.523 520
* K 9
106 890
990
9 720
2.478 827
* Q Q
117 150
120
330
5.968 622
* Q J
102 660
1 008
13 932
2.263 469
* Q T
101 448
1 134
15 018
2.204 847
* Q 9
100 050
1 386
16 164
2.139 949
* J J
116 724
210
666
5.938 316
* J T
93 300
1 512
22 788
1.798 776
* J 9
91 398
1 848
24 354
1.710 306
* T T
116 094
336
1 170
5.893 316
* T 9
80 790
2 376
34 434
0.495 561
* 9 9
114 990
720
1 890
5.818 622
A A A
117 576
24
0
21.995 510
A A K
113 040
360
4 200
2.776 531
A A Q
112 602
420
4 578
2.755 714
A A J
112 110
480
5 010
2.732 143
A A T
111 564
540
5 496
2.705 816
A A 9
110 970
660
5 970
2.678 571
A K K
109 170
300
8 130
2.577 551
A K Q
60 726
1 260
55 614
-0.385 969
A K J
59 304
1 440
56 856
-0.441 837
A K T
57 690
1 620
58 290
-0.505 867
A K 9
55 866
1 980
59 754
-0.574 235
A Q Q
102 252
450
14 898
2.228 418
A Q J
52 944
1 680
62 976
-0.706 122
A Q T
51 030
1 890
64 680
-0.782 143
A Q 9
48 846
2 310
66 444
-0.864 286
A J J
93 882
630
23 088
1.805 969
A J T
45 888
2 160
69 552
-0.993 878
A J 9
43 344
2 640
71 616
-1.089 796
A T T
84 054
840
32 706
0.595 153
A T 9
40 200
2 970
74 430
-1.215 051
A 9 9
72 654
1 350
43 596
0.123 469
K K K
117 330
60
210
8.973 980
K K Q
107 100
630
9 870
2.480 357
K K J
106 338
720
10 542
2.443 776
K K T
105 492
810
11 298
2.402 908
K K 9
104 538
990
12 072
2.358 827
K Q Q
101 844
540
15 216
2.209 898
K Q J
34 392
2 016
81 192
-1.486 327
K Q T
32 022
2 268
83 310
-1.580 663
K Q 9
29 262
2 772
85 566
-1.685 153
K J J
93 222
756
23 622
1.775 510
K J T
25 776
2 592
89 232
-1.837 959
K J 9
22 584
3 168
91 848
-1.958 980
K T T
83 100
1 008
33 492
0.558 878
K T 9
18 738
3 564
95 298
-2.112 398
K 9 9
70 986
1 620
44 994
0.059 439
Q Q Q
116 934
120
546
5.952 092
Q Q J
99 234
1 008
17 358
2.088 673
Q Q T
98 028
1 134
18 438
2.030 357
Q Q 9
96 642
1 386
19 572
1.966 071
Q J J
92 424
882
24 294
1.738 010
Q J T
13 752
3 024
100 824
-2.338 163
Q J 9
9 900
3 696
104 004
-2.484 796
Q T T
81 966
1 176
34 458
0.514 949
Q T 9
5 346
4 158
108 096
-2.666 633
Q 9 9
69 036
1 890
46 674
-0.016 582
J J J
116 340
210
1 050
5.908 929
J J T
89 166
1 512
26 922
1.587 857
J J 9
87 276
1 848
28 476
1.500 000
J T T
80 652
1 344
35 604
0.463 367
J T 9
0
4 752
112 848
-2.878 776
J 9 9
66 804
2 160
48 636
-0.104 592
T T T
115 494
336
1 770
5.847 398
T T 9
76 470
2 376
38 754
0.311 888
T 9 9
64 290
2 430
50 880
-0.204 592
9 9 9
114 120
720
2 760
5.752 041
gordonm888
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gordonm888
Joined: Feb 18, 2015
  • Threads: 50
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Thanks for this post from:
charliepatrick
October 5th, 2018 at 9:46:02 AM permalink
I did over a dozen spot checks and my results and Charlies appear to be identical.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
miplet
miplet
Joined: Dec 1, 2009
  • Threads: 5
  • Posts: 1975
October 5th, 2018 at 11:03:43 AM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

I did over a dozen spot checks and my results and Charlies appear to be identical.


I checked everything in both and they agree with my numbers.
“Man Babes” #AxelFabulous
mustangsally
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
  • Threads: 25
  • Posts: 2463
October 5th, 2018 at 3:19:38 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

but played with a modified deck, as follows, in rank order, from highest to lowest:

3 Fire Dragons
3 Water Dragons
1 wild Gold Dragon
7 Phoenixes (what is the plural of phoenix?)
8 Tigers
9 Pandas
10 Monkeys
12 Rabbits

this game seems to be targeting one gambling group in particular.
does anyone really think this can fly in a casino?

who can follow if from a surveillance viewpoint?

I can understand Casino War

My Mom looked at the game this passed weekend, and that is all she said.
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
gordonm888
Administrator
gordonm888
Joined: Feb 18, 2015
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October 6th, 2018 at 8:17:00 AM permalink
Okay, let's have some fun.

Importance of the Wild Card
Hands with a Wild: Avg EV = + 2.986
Hands with no Wild : Avg EV = - 0.2184

Of course, that's an aspect of poker games with a Wild Card: the entire game seems to revolve around whether or not you have the wild card.

Effect of Removal
Here are the EOR's or Effect of Removal. These assume that both hands are unknown and that one card of the given rank is removed from the 53-card deck.

Card Removed
Player EV,%
EOR,%
None
-3.703
0
Wild
-10.044
-6.341
Dragon
-4.316
-0.613
Phoenix
-3.714
-0.011
Tiger
-3.678
0.026
Panda
-3.902
-0.199
Monkey
-2.983
0.720
Rabbit
-3.330
0.373

These EORs are driven by whether the absence of the card increases or decreases the frequency with which player will get the high payout hands (trips and high pairs.)
Last edited by: gordonm888 on Oct 6, 2018
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
Gialmere
Gialmere
Joined: Nov 26, 2018
  • Threads: 41
  • Posts: 2118
January 14th, 2019 at 6:30:43 PM permalink
It's a long shot but does anyone know where to buy a deck for this game? Apart from the Wizard sites no one seems to have heard of it.
Have you tried 22 tonight? I said 22.

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