Effective Payback
August 19th, 2018 at 8:10:59 AM
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Hi gang! Long time lurker here. Love the site. There is something I have wondered for a while so I finally decided to make an account and post it.
I have never been lucky enough to hit a straight flush in any of the poker games or even trips in 3card so it got me wondering about what i started calling "effective payback". That is, what someone can reasonably expect to hit in a 1-2 hour gambling session. I would say anything 1% or above. If Pair Plus were the example, I would expect to hit straight, flush and pairs but not trips or straight flush. If I ran the math correctly I get a 76.5% effective payback for Pair Plus:
-------------Probability Return
Straight 6-1 .032579 .195474
Flush`````3-1 .049593 .148778
Pair```````1-1 .169412 .169412
Nothing `-1 .748416 -.748416
``````````````````````````````````-.234751
What I am really wondering and what I can't do the math on is the effective payback for the main games of UTH, DJ Wild, 3card and Crazy4. All four of these games have some long odds payback in either the blind or the ante. I know the Element of Risk is a great overall measurement tool but I really wonder what the payback is if we exclude the long odds wins completely.
Love the site and the discussion here. Keep up the great work!
I have never been lucky enough to hit a straight flush in any of the poker games or even trips in 3card so it got me wondering about what i started calling "effective payback". That is, what someone can reasonably expect to hit in a 1-2 hour gambling session. I would say anything 1% or above. If Pair Plus were the example, I would expect to hit straight, flush and pairs but not trips or straight flush. If I ran the math correctly I get a 76.5% effective payback for Pair Plus:
-------------Probability Return
Straight 6-1 .032579 .195474
Flush`````3-1 .049593 .148778
Pair```````1-1 .169412 .169412
Nothing `-1 .748416 -.748416
``````````````````````````````````-.234751
What I am really wondering and what I can't do the math on is the effective payback for the main games of UTH, DJ Wild, 3card and Crazy4. All four of these games have some long odds payback in either the blind or the ante. I know the Element of Risk is a great overall measurement tool but I really wonder what the payback is if we exclude the long odds wins completely.
Love the site and the discussion here. Keep up the great work!
