BJ Sidebet: EZ Bust

Saw it at Rio on a 2D H17 table; it plays exactly like https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/side-bets/bet-the-bust/ except they only offer it on an up card of 2-6 and it pays even. You're allowed to bet up to equal your main bet.

For reference: https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/appendix/2a/

...And it's not nearly as easy as the name makes it sound. (3 shuffles without a single bust, on any up card...)

Hmmm, so say you only played the bet when the dealer had 4-6... since it's same pay as the bet-the-bust (1 to 1). Otherwise I feel like the HE increases a lot because 2 and 3 on bet-the-bust pays 1.5 to 1... Better yet, let's say the dealer has a 6 showing... we have $100 bet (lucky us). We bet $100 on the bust bet... the dealer will bust 43.88% of the time, yet we're getting even money. So wouldn't that put this at a 6.12% HE? Just a little quick thinking before running actual return tables on it =P.

Here is what I get with Wiz's probabilities:



Yuck.

Two questions:

(1) What does the hi-lo true count need to be for the dealer's chance of busting > 50% for every up card 2 thru 6? I'm looking for a table like this:

dealer up card -> TC needed for chance of busting > 50%
2 -> 12
3 -> 11
4 -> 10
5 -> 8
6 -> 9

or something like that. Because it seems those are the index values that would make EZ Bust positive EV.

(2) Has anyone developed a specialized count (10 count?) for the EZ Bust side bet? Would probably be better than using Hi-Lo.

Thanks!

greyzone,

See the second figure, labeled "Bust Rate", on this post:

https://www.blackjacktheforum.com/showthread.php?18218-Dealer-Upcard-Probability-Bust-Rate-and-Bust-Frequency-vs-HiLo-TC&highlight=dealer%20bust&p=226368#post226368

There, you'll see that the dealer's 5 or 6 upcard results in a bust over half the time at a HiLo TC of +9 and up for a 6D H17 game.

For DD, the results will vary somewhat, but probably not enough to matter from a practical point of view.

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand

Sorry for the late arrival. Here is my page on EZ Bust. I welcome all comments.

Dumb bust variation. I can't even begin to guess what's in some Table Games Directors minds when they decide to bring a game/side bet in.


ZCore13

My understanding of what he is saying is 'the dealers chance of busting in a '2 deck dealer-hits-soft-17 varies from him having a 2 = 0.356527 to him having a 6 = 0.438754' . IF my understanding is correct, then the house will NOT bust less that it busts ; hence this 1-1 payout is not good.