The Truth, In a Way, The Past Numbers To Have Hit Do Matter
Quote: KeyserMathExtremeist,
Let me explain the phrase, "Clocking the Wheel". It really has two meanings.
Not really. Number tracking and wheel clocking are different animals - you call the latter "visual ballistics", which is catchy. But if you can clock the wheel (successfully) without a computer, why on earth are you bothering with number tracking? Let me ask it this way -- when you play roulette and clock the wheel, what % of the wheel can you eliminate?
Quote:Not really. Number tracking and wheel clocking are different animals - you call the latter "visual ballistics", which is catchy. But if you can clock the wheel (successfully) without a computer, why on earth are you bothering with number tracking? Let me ask it this way -- when you play roulette and clock the wheel, what % of the wheel can you eliminate?
No, the term wheel clocking is used by the casino as a general term to describe both camps.
Remember the story about the South American who was able to clock the speed of the roll from the point of release and post-bet on the table the exact same quadrant/set of numbers due to their higher frequency of hit? Guy made millions until they stopped the practice of post-betting.
Exploiting wheel defects seems tangent to the system of just betting the last 5 to reduce the HA.
The croupier can release the ball at different sections of the wheel and at different speeds to give you a level of randomness. Any results from a simulation would just be attributed to variance.
Quote: AsswhoopermcdaddyBut here's the problem. Even if you are betting the last 5 numbers, you still have a strong HA. Whether you're clocking the wheel, spin, or croupier, it won't matter since your bets are locked in before the dealer releases the ball. Hence you can't post-bet after the ball is in motion. That is the standard is most casinos to prevent such gaming of the system.
Yes, you can bet after the ball is spun, but don't waste your time.
Quote: KeyserYes, you most certainly can bet after the ball is spun.
And the dealers most certainly do NOT release the ball in a random manner.
Which casinos in Las Vegas can you bet after the ball is spun? I don't see that allowed on the East Coast, where I've played.
Which casino did you find that would not allow bets after the ball was spun?
-Keyser
Quote: KeyserIn every casino that I've been in here in the US (I have been in most of them), you CAN bet after the ball is spun. This includes the East coast casinos as well.
Which casino did you find that would not allow bets after the ball was spun?
-Keyser
I saw it not allowed at Foxwoods, Mohegan, Trump, Tropicana, Borgata, and Dover Downs. Bets are finalized before the ball is spun. Post-bets are pointed out.
Quote: AsswhoopermcdaddyI saw it not allowed at Foxwoods, Mohegan, Trump, Tropicana, Borgata, and Dover Downs. Bets are finalized before the ball is spun. Post-bets are pointed out.
You are mistaken or you are not understanding what you are viewing when watching the game. Perhaps you are seeing "call bets" being declined.
I have recently played at all of the casinos listed above, except for Dover Downs. They all allow bets to be placed AFTER the ball is spun.
-Keyser
WASHOO2
Quote: WASHOO2" No more bets " with this announcement and a hand wave across the table by the croupier no more bets are allowed . But until that moment one can place bets even if the ball has already been spun.
WASHOO2
To be more specific, this is what I saw:
Bets are made. Croupier waves hand over the table and indicates "No More Bets". Ball is then spun. Not before. People trying to bet after the ball is spun are occasionally told no more bets and the bet is either removed, but sometimes allowed to stand (I assume stricter enforcement if people are winning).
Poppycock! JJJ, you are the KING of misinformation, I will give you that.
AP is alive and well and you would be a sucker to play any negative expectation game unless you had an edge.
A big bankroll and some discipline does not give you an edge. How long do you intend playing with that big bankroll? Any smart gambler who did not have an edge would be wise to get in and out of the casino as quickly as possible. In most cases, this means just betting 1 or 2 spins. Not hundreds with a large bankroll just so the casino can grind you down. The problem seems to be seperating the pro's from the wannabe amateurs. The GOOD advice gets lost in all that noise!
WASHOO2
It's obvious that you've never played roulette. In short, you CAN bet after the ball is spun. Late in the spin, the dealer will wave their hand and call no more bets. After that point, you can no longer bet.
I agree with everything Keyser has said, except one thing:
Even in the situation he describes, past spins don't "influence" future spins. It's just that the same physical system that produced those past spins will tend to produce future spins in the same manner. Because of the short term nature of biases, this tends to manifest best within the first few spins. I have about 150,000 real roulette spins and in all but a handfull of cases, the house edge is reduced just by betting the past 5 spins. In a few cases, a true edge is realized.
However, there are two things Keyser isn't telling you:
1) It only works (or, has the potential to work) on wheels with a Chi-Square above 55, and
2) Trying to exploit the bias (i.e. playing) will negate the effect should you start to win. In fact, should you start to win and draw attention just betting the past 5 numbers, you will - in all probability - now be playing into a significant negative edge.
Roulette's a bitch. To truly beat the game, it helps to be left handed, have OCD, and have masochistic tendancies.
One man's experience.
Quote: KeyserAsswhoppermcdaddy and Mosca,
It's obvious that you've never played roulette. In short, you CAN bet after the ball is spun. Late in the spin, the dealer will wave their hand and call no more bets. After that point, you can no longer bet.
Did you read what I wrote? I agreed with you.
Don't assume that because I disagree with your conclusion I don't appreciate your research. You may very well have discovered something; I just don't think you've met the level of proof.
Quote: scotty81Suddenly, everyone's an expert on Roulette.
Well, it isn't difficult to be an "expert" on a game that is so childishly simplistic and for which the mathematics would not challenge a bright fourth-grader.
You bet on a number. The odds against you are 37 to 1. However, if you win, the house only pays you 35 to 1, and pockets the difference. Similarly, if you bet on red, the house pays you even money--but the odds are actually 20 to 18 against you.
Who but a complete cementhead would think that you could ever make money, or even break even, betting against that kind of disadvantage? Yet, people have been trying for three hundred years, and STILL ARE TRYING, to devise a way to circumvent reality. It's mind-blowing, really, and in my POV, the fact that so many people believe in being able to avoid simple mathematics means that the human race is doomed. We SO love irrationality!
Quote: mkl654321Well, it isn't difficult to be an "expert" on a game that is so childishly simplistic and for which the mathematics would not challenge a bright fourth-grader.
No,
I'm just a lowly shoe cobbler.
-Keyser.
Quote: KeyserYes,
I'll admit it. I am an expert on the game. From wheel design, wheel make, manufacturing flaws, finishing, common assembly probelms, and what kind of wheel you have in your backyard. If you fart near a wheel, chances are I or someone I know will smell it.
-Keyser.
Good grief, now I've heard it all!
Quote:I would agree with you that the likelihood af there being a 'perfect' wheel is negligible, but that any imperfections would not come close to overcoming the house edge. Also- do you personally play roulette at a double zero wheel, single zero wheel, or not at all anymore
Opportunities for the visual ballistic player are out there, but they are difficult to find. You must be willing to live out of a suitcase, and travel a great deal to third world countries.
Quote: KeyserOpportunities for the visual ballistic player are out there, but they are difficult to find. You must be willing to live out of a suitcase, and travel a great deal.
My ex-wife used to go visually ballistic on a regular basis. It did, in fact, cause me to travel a great deal, and live out of a suitcase much of the time. Is that what you were referring to?
Quote: mkl654321My ex-wife used to go visually ballistic on a regular basis. It did, in fact, cause me to travel a great deal, and live out of a suitcase much of the time. Is that what you were referring to?
OMG! I haven't laughed that hard in a long time!
"How long do you intend playing with that big bankroll?" >>> ALREADY, counting past years or only for future years? KenQuote: chickendinner"The only REAL way to play roulette is with a decent method, a large BR and discipline."
Poppycock! JJJ, you are the KING of misinformation, I will give you that.
AP is alive and well and you would be a sucker to play any negative expectation game unless you had an edge.
A big bankroll and some discipline does not give you an edge. How long do you intend playing with that big bankroll? Any smart gambler who did not have an edge would be wise to get in and out of the casino as quickly as possible. In most cases, this means just betting 1 or 2 spins. Not hundreds with a large bankroll just so the casino can grind you down. The problem seems to be seperating the pro's from the wannabe amateurs. The GOOD advice gets lost in all that noise!
Thanks Al !Quote: ten2winYou cannot beat a roulette table unless you steal money from it. ~Albert Einstein
Quote: KeyserA dealer could shoot sections.
No he/she cant or will have no interest in such BS.
Ken
I consider myself new to this roulette game in such I believe there is alot to learn and this is slightly of topic regarding numbers to come up. It derides alot of folk but I for one cannot see how it would be impossible to predict not an outcome but a high probability area using the laws of physics and also some kind of signature. I have read your posts and you state one condition to beating the wheel is a dominant drop zone, which in my case is not so easy to obtain so have to work with other thought processes and one of those for some time is what you have called framing I think it was, wherein more than one rev displays the same area or sector giving obvious advantage. Using this tecnique and possibly say an auto wheel with some interesting characteristics and a few other applied tecniques for constant application what would you consider would be the likely outcome of analysing a large number of spins?
Any added thoughts would be greatly recieved.
Quote: Crushed...what would you consider would be the likely outcome of analysing a large number of spins?
That roulette has a 5.26% house advantage.
Quote: CrushedThanks for the reply monkey but it was not directly a math related question.
Oh, ok, let's try it another way then...
Quote: Crushed...what would you consider would be the likely outcome of analysing a large number of spins?
Um... a headache? A worn down pencil? A blister on your spin finger? I read your post 3 times before replying and frankly it was quite difficult to follow.
Quote: CrushedBy the way I play european roulette so you are wrong on both counts.
Oh, then I believe it's 2.7%. Or, a headache, worn down pencil, or blister.
Maybe you'd have more success finding whatever it is you're looking for in the 'Betting Systems' forum.
Maybe it would be best for the reply to come from someone it is addressed to and can further more understand the question being asked. I do not have the comprehension to disscuss with a scorn misguided intellect over a forum. Thanks for trying, though it must be said your working out of the facts before knowing the parts you cannot follow maybe of some help to those on a system forum, a kindred spirit if you will. For me I have already pointed out it is not directly a math question, does not even come accross as a math question in which the simple calculation is beheld in the casino that stands before me, you simply choose to ignore that for some reason in your reply so will not reply to you again.
Regards
Quote: Crushed
Maybe it would be best for the reply to come from someone it is addressed to
So when you wrote: "Any added thoughts would be greatly recieved." you were just kidding?
Quote: Crushedand can further more understand the question being asked.
That might be a taller order to fill. My best guess, and I mean no offense, is that English is not your native language. What you've written looks like it's had a very interesting and exciting journey through a web translator.
Quote: CrushedThanks for trying though it must be said your working out of the facts before knowing the parts you cannot follow maybe of some help to those on a system forum, a kindred spirit if you will.
If I will what? None of this makes sense. I do not think roulette can be beaten. I don't think you're going to find a biased wheel using any technique you've eluded to.
Quote: CrushedFor me I have already pointed out it is not directly a math question,
Then what are you asking when you say "what would you consider would be the likely outcome of analysing a large number of spins"?
Quote: Crusheddoes not even come accross as a math question in which the simple calculation is beheld in the casino that stands before me,
Ok, that sentence go really weird toward the end, but how can you say something doesn't come across as a math question and then refer to it as a simple calculation?
Quote: Crushedyou simply choose to ignore that for some reason in your reply
Yeah, imagine thinking that "analysing a large number of spins" might have something to do with math.
Quote: Crushedso will not reply to you again.
That's what they all say, I look forward to your reply, this place needs more levity (and necro threads).
If the post was addressed to you then no I am not kidding but you are really just making your level of intelligence seem lower than the house edge as you seem to understand very little of that you read yet still reply with a guise of a higher source. Taking one sentance away from a bigger post and applying it out of context is not the way to address your assertions over another. Rather more than trying to bias something in your favour.
"That might be a taller order to fill. My best guess, and I mean no offense, is that English is not your native language. What you've written looks like it's had a very interesting and exciting journey through a web translator."
Ha ha, i am from england as are my parents, their parents before them and beyond that I could not say. Nice deductive work sherlock!
I will not reply to you regarding the post as you simply do not understand what is being asked and why you deduce I am not a native english speaker just shows you fill in the gaps till satisfied in your own mind. Whereas asking questions when not fully informed is a better way to go and keeping an open mind can also open doors to new avenues of thought! You can have your beliefs, i will neither regard them as correct or wrong though my belief in the math could well be the same as yours, just that the question does not pertain in anyway to this subject, only in your replies for some reason which makes it only valid in your head.
Quote: Crushed"So when you wrote: "Any added thoughts would be greatly recieved." you were just kidding?"
If the post was addressed to you then no I am not kidding
Ah, but it was addressed to me and everyone else. If you meant only Keyser to respond you could have used a PM. When you didn't you opened it to discussion by all.
Quote: Crushedbut you are really just making your level of intelligence seem lower than the house edge
Careful now, there are rules about personal insults here.
Quote: Crushed
as you seem to understand very little of that you read yet still reply with a the guise of a higer source. Taking one sentance away from a bigger post and applying it out of context is not the way to address your assertions over another. Rather more than trying to bias something in your favour.
You also seem to be having difficulty understanding that your posts are nearly gibberish.
Quote: Crushed
"That might be a taller order to fill. My best guess, and I mean no offense, is that English is not your native language. What you've written looks like it's had a very interesting and exciting journey through a web translator."
Ha ha, i am from england as are my parents, their parents before them and beyond that I could not say. Nice deductive work sherlock!
I was trying to be nice and give you the benefit of the doubt. Your username makes more sense now, though I have to wonder if perhaps "Dropped" was already taken.
Quote: Crushed
I will not reply to you regarding the post as you simply do not understand what is being asked
Well, I did ask for clarification but for some reason you opted to exclude that from your reply.
Quote: Crushed
and why you deduce I am not a native english speaker just shows you fill in the gaps till satisfied in your own mind.
Is that what it shows?
Quote: Crushed
Whereas asking questions when not fully informed is a better way to go and keeping an open mind can also open doors to new avenues of thought!
Well, if I had any idea what your question was maybe, just maybe, we'd be discussing that instead.
Quote: Crushed
You can have your beliefs,
Thanks, that's a generous gesture.
Quote: Crushed
i will neither regard them as correct or wrong though my belief in the math could well be the same as yours,
Wait, what math? This wasn't about math a couple posts ago.
Quote: Crushed
just that the question does not pertain in anyway to this subject, only in your replies for some reason which makes it only valid in your head.
Only in my head? How about on my finger that got blistered by analyzing a large number of spins? I think my blistered finger deserves some recognition for all its hard work.
This is a lot of fun, we should find more old threads to necro, we really can't have too many zombie threads now that JB has given us the "ignore thread" option.
I am not insulting you, you are doing that to yourself with your replies. I have reread my posts in the absence of some cohesion but they make perfect sense.
You have deduced I want to use math to check something which relates to the house edge but the post clearly states math will be used only to analyse my results, two very different things indeed hence all this house edge is purely from you and not related in any way. Try to understand that which you have read before, responding and trying to twist the information to suit you is not very bright, thus bringing some doubt to intelligence.
Quote: CrushedNo the post is clearly addressed to, Keyser.
And you're supposing he's going to read this thread that he started over 2 years ago, and hadn't had a post in over a year, scroll to the end and see that you were addressing him. Right.
Quote: CrushedWhy would I send a PM to someone I do not know?
For the same reason you'd write publicly to someone you didn't know, but with highly increased odds of them actually seeing it.
Quote: CrushedI write a post with the hope of a reply and hopefully show some respect as I am asking for help from someone who appears more knowledgable than myself. You choose to reply for someother reason.
I chose to reply because I'm bored and zany roulette threads are a sort of guilty pleasure of mine.
Quote: Crushed
I am not insulting you, you are doing that to yourself with your replies.
Actually, you might want to peruse the forum rules. Statements like:
- you are really just making your level of intelligence seem lower than the house edge
and
- Nice deductive work sherlock!
Are personal insults/attacks, which are not allowed.
Quote: CrushedI have reread my posts in the absence of some cohesion but they make perfect sense.
I can't even make heads or tails of that sentence.
Quote: Crushed
You have deduced I want to use math to check something which relates to the house edge but the post clearly states math will be used only to analyse my results, two very different things indeed hence all this house edge is purely form you and not related in any way.
I really haven't deduced anything, I have, however, asked you to clarify whatever it is you're asking twice before now and you have simply omitted the question and answer from all of your replies. Shall we try again?
What's your question?
Quote: CrushedTry to understand that which you have read before, responding and trying to twist the information to suit you is not very bright, thus bringing some doubt to intelligence.
I have tried to understand, it's not working. If I read it aloud and use a Yoda voice it makes me chuckle a bit, I may have even chortled at one point, but it's not helping to make any sense of it.
Yes, I figure this forum may have some kind of feature that flags up recent posts. If not its worth a try as it will increase my odds over not doing so!
"For the same reason you'd write publicly to someone you didn't know, but with highly increased odds of them actually seeing it."
Again yes, we who speak english call it an "open letter", even though addressed to someone specific. One last time, I am trying to be respectful in any sense possible on an open forum. A reply of any sort is welcome, be it an open post or PM is not really something I see as my choice is it. Unless invited to respond by one of these mediums I will show respect and not bother, Keyser again!
"Actually, you might want to peruse the forum rules. Statements like:
- you are really just making your level of intelligence seem lower than the house edge
and
- Nice deductive work sherlock!
Are personal insults/attacks, which are not allowed."
I am not attacking you, simply reading your posts and just stating what maybe fact and as such stand by my comments!
""I have reread my posts in the absence of some cohesion but they make perfect sense."
I can't even make heads or tails of that sentence."
That is your whole problem and not the first time if you are honest is it! The kind of folk I talk with would not even question that sentence! And as such, Monkey, you bore me now. Have a good day even if not a productive one.
Regards
Quote: Crushed"And you're supposing he's going to read this thread that he started over 2 years ago, and hadn't had a post in over a year, scroll to the end and see that you were addressing him. Right."
Yes, I figure this forum may have some kind of feature that flags up recent posts. If not its worth a try as it will increase my odds over not doing so!
Yeah, it might have such a feature. You're kinda new to forums, aren't you?
Quote: Crushed
"For the same reason you'd write publicly to someone you didn't know, but with highly increased odds of them actually seeing it."
Again yes, we who speak english call it an "open letter", even though addressed to someone specific. One last time, I am trying to be respectful in any sense possible on an open forum. A reply of any sort is welcome, be it an open post or PM is not really something I see as my choice is it. Unless invited to respond by one of these mediums I will show respect and not bother, Keyser again!
You used the word "again" twice in that paragraph to refer to things that we haven't previously discussed. I feel a Princess Bride quote coming on...
Quote: Crushed
"Actually, you might want to peruse the forum rules. Statements like:
- you are really just making your level of intelligence seem lower than the house edge
and
- Nice deductive work sherlock!
Are personal insults/attacks, which are not allowed."
I am not attacking you, simply reading your posts and just stating what maybe fact and as such stand by my comments!
Keep at it and you may find yourself standing by your comments unable to comment further. The moderators here make the final call on what is or isn't a personal attack. Again, you may want to give the forum rules a closer look as you appear to me to be teetering on the edge of the suspension abyss.
Quote: Crushed
""I have reread my posts in the absence of some cohesion but they make perfect sense."
I can't even make heads or tails of that sentence."
That is your whole problem and not the first time if you are honest is it! The kind of folk I talk with would not even question that sentence!
I hesitate to speculate as to who those people might be or where they might reside.
Quote: CrushedAnd as such, Monkey you bore me now.
Does that mean you're not going to respond to me again again? (or is that again again again?)
Quote: CrushedHave a good if day even if not a productive one.
Oh, I see what you did there. Clever, very clever. You assembled a sentence that made sense AND was insulting. Nice.
Say, what was your question anyway? I know this will be the fourth time I've asked, but surely your will to remain obtuse must be weakening.
out of it. Crushed's writing style reminds me of the
people in India I have to speak with when I have
credit card questions. After 5min I want to kill myself
or have a strong drink of 150 proof rum.
I have the same problem with the phone centres in india. If you are from england then we can have many differences in dialect, especially if you take the entire british isles into account which naturally adds confusion, thats before we even take into account other english speaking nations. I appreciate my writing maybe harder for some to understand than talking where misunderstandings can be addressed but its likely down to dialect than not making sense.
Anyway I think its best to wait for people who can understand my english and more importantly, question. You are correct in the way the posts with, Monkey are not only of topic but a waste of energy and pointless and as such will not be carried on.
Many regards
Quote: CrushedHello, Even bob.
I have the same problem with the phone centres in india. If you are from england then we can have many differences in dialect, especially if you take the entire british isles into account which naturally adds confusion, thats before we even take into account other english speaking nations. I appreciate my writing maybe harder for some to understand than talking where misunderstandings can be addressed but its likely down to dialect than not making sense.
Which part of the UK are you from?
I don't think this is a dialect problem, though... it tends to be talking that causes more confusion than the written word.
Hello, thecesspit. Appreciate your view and believe you maybe right.
Quote: KeyserSome roulette facts..
1. If a number has hit within the last five spins, it really is slightly more likely to hit on the next spin.
-Keyser
Hello Keyser,
sorry about that but you can't call it "facts" and then come up with this, sorry: bullshit!
It is just not true. And you should know, if you are, as I read within the first 5 minutes on this forum, the "expert" on roulette.
I have not yet read the thread to the end but there is no way you can correct this statement except you take it back :)
No offense. Nothing personal.
Keep the facts real though!
