dajakesta
• Posts: 70
Joined: Jul 15, 2016
September 6th, 2016 at 9:08:47 PM permalink
Hi guys, I'm pretty new here and stumbled upon the wiz's site and clicked around to get to here lol. I have a burning question for you guys. I read about the wizard's strategy for flashy dealers when they accidentally expose one of his/her hole cards and I can actually take advantage of that and the player advantage is around 3% or so. I'm wondering what's an optimal bankroll in units to survive the negative swings?
beachbumbabs
• Posts: 14268
Joined: May 21, 2013
September 6th, 2016 at 11:41:23 PM permalink
Quote: dajakesta

Hi guys, I'm pretty new here and stumbled upon the wiz's site and clicked around to get to here lol. I have a burning question for you guys. I read about the wizard's strategy for flashy dealers when they accidentally expose one of his/her hole cards and I can actually take advantage of that and the player advantage is around 3% or so. I'm wondering what's an optimal bankroll in units to survive the negative swings?

Hi daja, and welcome. I'll let the math guys compute that for you rather than making a guess.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
RS
• Posts: 8626
Joined: Feb 11, 2014
September 7th, 2016 at 9:15:44 AM permalink
Quote: dajakesta

Hi guys, I'm pretty new here and stumbled upon the wiz's site and clicked around to get to here lol. I have a burning question for you guys. I read about the wizard's strategy for flashy dealers when they accidentally expose one of his/her hole cards and I can actually take advantage of that and the player advantage is around 3% or so. I'm wondering what's an optimal bankroll in units to survive the negative swings?

The swings are absolutely awful. 200 units should be sufficient.
odiousgambit
• Posts: 9622
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
September 7th, 2016 at 10:14:15 AM permalink
what is the minimum bet?

the variance is low, 1.64 SD, squared = 2.6896

you need enough to make at least the minimum bet

min bet = 1.1% * bankroll
bankroll = min bet/1.1%

if min bet is \$10, then 10/1.1%= \$909

Considerations: you need to survive non-flashers to give cover. Also, even if flashing is constant, you can't start losing and stay Kelly.

\$2000 for a \$10 table sounds about right, RS had it right

if you start winning, you can increase your bet
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
dajakesta
• Posts: 70
Joined: Jul 15, 2016
September 7th, 2016 at 11:28:07 AM permalink
Thank you all for the advice. I am playing on a 5 dollar table so 1k should be sufficient assuming perfect play
Deucekies
• Posts: 1445
Joined: Jan 20, 2014
September 7th, 2016 at 11:42:59 AM permalink
So how much does the OP stand to make per hour?
Casinos are not your friends, they want your money. But so does Disneyland. And there is no chance in hell that you will go to Disneyland and come back with more money than you went with. - AxelWolf and Mickeycrimm
Romes
• Posts: 5607
Joined: Jul 22, 2014
September 7th, 2016 at 11:45:26 AM permalink
\$5 table with \$1k might not be the maximum value you could be earning for your money.

\$/hour is fairly simple to calculate given the advantage/etc/etc.

N0 (the "long run") also isn't too terribly difficult to calculate.

PM for info.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
Ibeatyouraces
• Posts: 11933
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
September 7th, 2016 at 11:48:54 AM permalink
This game can be crushing at times. You need plenty of nerve to withstand down swings. It will test your mental state, that's a certainty.
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
Romes
• Posts: 5607
Joined: Jul 22, 2014
September 7th, 2016 at 11:57:02 AM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

This game can be crushing at times. You need plenty of nerve to withstand down swings. It will test your mental state, that's a certainty.

Very, very true... Though from personal experience I think a long bad run at blackjack is worse =P.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
Ibeatyouraces
• Posts: 11933
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
September 7th, 2016 at 12:00:02 PM permalink
Quote: Romes

Very, very true... Though from personal experience I think a long bad run at blackjack is worse =P.

Agree, but this game is a ton more frustrating! Probably why most HC AP's won't touch this game anymore.
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
dajakesta
• Posts: 70
Joined: Jul 15, 2016
September 7th, 2016 at 12:42:37 PM permalink
thanksguys, can you guys rate my strategy? I am thinking of increasing/decreasing my bet by 1 unit per 200 units won/lost. is this,optimal?
Romes
• Posts: 5607
Joined: Jul 22, 2014
September 7th, 2016 at 12:59:35 PM permalink
Quote: dajakesta

thanksguys, can you guys rate my strategy? I am thinking of increasing/decreasing my bet by 1 unit per 200 units won/lost. is this,optimal?

You should be quite safe to up your bet 1 unit per every 100 units won.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
teliot
• Posts: 2871
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
September 7th, 2016 at 4:26:11 PM permalink
Seems relevant:

https://apheat.net/2015/06/12/three-card-poker-hole-card-play-update-1/

https://apheat.net/2013/01/09/hole-carding-three-card-poker-random-walks-ror/
Climate Casino: https://climatecasino.net/climate-casino/
dajakesta
• Posts: 70
Joined: Jul 15, 2016
September 7th, 2016 at 5:52:18 PM permalink
I already read both of those before coming in and saw that the pro player busted his bank of 50k within a 3 month period so that's why i came over to ask for advice lol
Ibeatyouraces
• Posts: 11933
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
September 7th, 2016 at 7:19:29 PM permalink
My worst day was down \$8800 betting \$200 a hand. Fortunately, I'm ahead lifetime at it mainly due to playing with others and chopping the win/loss. Playing solo can get quite brutal and disparaging.
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
dajakesta
• Posts: 70
Joined: Jul 15, 2016
September 7th, 2016 at 9:41:39 PM permalink
I see, but i prefer solo since I can spread out a bit more so I can rest my head on my hand and see the card more clearly, also another plus is that there will be more hands/hour which means more money =)
RS
• Posts: 8626
Joined: Feb 11, 2014
September 7th, 2016 at 9:44:29 PM permalink
Quote: dajakesta

I see, but i prefer solo since I can spread out a bit more so I can rest my head on my hand and see the card more clearly, also another plus is that there will be more hands/hour which means more money =)

Don't do that....
Deucekies
• Posts: 1445
Joined: Jan 20, 2014
September 7th, 2016 at 10:07:30 PM permalink
Quote: RS

Quote: dajakesta

I see, but i prefer solo since I can spread out a bit more so I can rest my head on my hand and see the card more clearly, also another plus is that there will be more hands/hour which means more money =)

Don't do that....

I was gonna say... Why don't you just tell the pit boss what you're doing?
Casinos are not your friends, they want your money. But so does Disneyland. And there is no chance in hell that you will go to Disneyland and come back with more money than you went with. - AxelWolf and Mickeycrimm
dajakesta
• Posts: 70
Joined: Jul 15, 2016
September 7th, 2016 at 11:35:46 PM permalink
Quote: Deucekies

Quote: RS

Quote: dajakesta

I see, but i prefer solo since I can spread out a bit more so I can rest my head on my hand and see the card more clearly, also another plus is that there will be more hands/hour which means more money =)

Don't do that....

I was gonna say... Why don't you just tell the pit boss what you're doing?

Thing is, I play blackjack in this position too so i don't think it's a big deal. The only game where i sit upright is baccarat lol
someone
• Posts: 36
Joined: Nov 9, 2014
September 8th, 2016 at 2:43:48 PM permalink
I have just been doing some work on 3 card poker so I have the figures at had. The previous posters were correct, if you get a full hole card 100% of the time the EV is 3.348%, variance 3.034, N0 2500, Kelly ratio 0.0115, DI of 20.00 and SCORE of 399.87.
If you get the read 90% of the time (a more likely upper bound when you include playing a few hands against a relief dealer etc.), the figures change to EV 2.797%, variance 2.999, N0 3833, Kelly ratio 0.009326, DI of 16.15 and SCORE of 260.88.
Looking down my tables your \$5 bet should be under kelly for a \$1000 Backroll as long as you catch the Hole at least around 75% of the time.
dajakesta
• Posts: 70
Joined: Jul 15, 2016
September 8th, 2016 at 9:47:21 PM permalink
Update: lady variance kicked me in the balls today. played the game with a 40 unit br and i kept on seeing 2-j and then the dealer qualifies most of the time with a bad bottom card. I lost about 38 units due to variance. Good thing is the session ended positive because I went to grind on some double deck blackjack and some baccarat. It sucks when you play a game with an advantage and you lose and win on some game that is due to random chance (baccarat) and basic strategy (blackjack)
Last edited by: dajakesta on Sep 8, 2016
Ibeatyouraces
• Posts: 11933
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
September 10th, 2016 at 3:22:15 PM permalink
Quote: teliot

https://apheat.net/2013/01/09/hole-carding-three-card-poker-random-walks-ror/

Did he adjust and lower his bet as he was losing? This is one huge mistake AP's make when they don't have a replenishable bankroll.
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
RS
• Posts: 8626
Joined: Feb 11, 2014
September 10th, 2016 at 5:53:07 PM permalink
I think that (at least partially) defeats the purpose of a random walk sim.
Ibeatyouraces
• Posts: 11933
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
September 10th, 2016 at 6:01:47 PM permalink
Quote: RS

I think that (at least partially) defeats the purpose of a random walk sim.

DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
Hunterhill
• Posts: 2155
Joined: Aug 1, 2011
September 10th, 2016 at 6:43:27 PM permalink
Quote: dajakesta

Update: lady variance kicked me in the balls today. played the game with a 40 unit br and i kept on seeing 2-j and then the dealer qualifies most of the time with a bad bottom card. I lost about 38 units due to variance. Good thing is the session ended positive because I went to grind on some double deck blackjack and some baccarat. It sucks when you play a game with an advantage and you lose and win on some game that is due to random chance (baccarat) and basic strategy (blackjack)

If you're going to play 3cp you better get used to having many losing sessions.
The mountain is tall but grass grows on top of the mountain.
Sandybestdog
• Posts: 336
Joined: Feb 3, 2015
September 24th, 2016 at 6:51:14 PM permalink
Last time I played 3cp there were 28 hands I had that basic strategy said to fold but I played cause that's what you're supposed to do. I didn't miss any cards and didn't make any mistakes. The dealer qualified on 26 of them. For fun sake I tried it again a few weeks ago. 16 hands that were supposed to be folded, the dealer qualified on 14 of them.

One thing I've always wondered but have never found the question to is if I am playing 2 hands or if I happen to glance at another players cards and all of the hands are fold hands, are you still supposed to always raise? If no, does it make any difference if any of the cards are copy cards to the dealers?
Ibeatyouraces
• Posts: 11933
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
September 24th, 2016 at 6:55:47 PM permalink
What others have makes no difference in strategy. There's been plenty of times where I've seen a dealer K with my neighbor having one also and I raise with A high only to have the dealer turn another K for a pair. Again, this game is brutal a lot of the time. You can even deal hands at home to see for yourself.
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
Hunterhill