bankroll for 3 card poker?
Quote: dajakestaHi guys, I'm pretty new here and stumbled upon the wiz's site and clicked around to get to here lol. I have a burning question for you guys. I read about the wizard's strategy for flashy dealers when they accidentally expose one of his/her hole cards and I can actually take advantage of that and the player advantage is around 3% or so. I'm wondering what's an optimal bankroll in units to survive the negative swings?
Hi daja, and welcome. I'll let the math guys compute that for you rather than making a guess.
Quote: dajakestaHi guys, I'm pretty new here and stumbled upon the wiz's site and clicked around to get to here lol. I have a burning question for you guys. I read about the wizard's strategy for flashy dealers when they accidentally expose one of his/her hole cards and I can actually take advantage of that and the player advantage is around 3% or so. I'm wondering what's an optimal bankroll in units to survive the negative swings?
The swings are absolutely awful. 200 units should be sufficient.
the variance is low, 1.64 SD, squared = 2.6896
kelly approximation= advantage/variance = 3%/2.6896=1.1%
you need enough to make at least the minimum bet
min bet = 1.1% * bankroll
bankroll = min bet/1.1%
if min bet is $10, then 10/1.1%= $909
Considerations: you need to survive non-flashers to give cover. Also, even if flashing is constant, you can't start losing and stay Kelly.
$2000 for a $10 table sounds about right, RS had it right
if you start winning, you can increase your bet
$/hour is fairly simple to calculate given the advantage/etc/etc.
N0 (the "long run") also isn't too terribly difficult to calculate.
PM for info.
Very, very true... Though from personal experience I think a long bad run at blackjack is worse =P.Quote: IbeatyouracesThis game can be crushing at times. You need plenty of nerve to withstand down swings. It will test your mental state, that's a certainty.
Quote: RomesVery, very true... Though from personal experience I think a long bad run at blackjack is worse =P.
Agree, but this game is a ton more frustrating! Probably why most HC AP's won't touch this game anymore.
You should be quite safe to up your bet 1 unit per every 100 units won.Quote: dajakestathanksguys, can you guys rate my strategy? I am thinking of increasing/decreasing my bet by 1 unit per 200 units won/lost. is this,optimal?
Quote: dajakestaI see, but i prefer solo since I can spread out a bit more so I can rest my head on my hand and see the card more clearly, also another plus is that there will be more hands/hour which means more money =)
Don't do that....
Quote: RSQuote: dajakestaI see, but i prefer solo since I can spread out a bit more so I can rest my head on my hand and see the card more clearly, also another plus is that there will be more hands/hour which means more money =)
Don't do that....
I was gonna say... Why don't you just tell the pit boss what you're doing?
Quote: DeucekiesQuote: RSQuote: dajakestaI see, but i prefer solo since I can spread out a bit more so I can rest my head on my hand and see the card more clearly, also another plus is that there will be more hands/hour which means more money =)
Don't do that....
I was gonna say... Why don't you just tell the pit boss what you're doing?
Thing is, I play blackjack in this position too so i don't think it's a big deal. The only game where i sit upright is baccarat lol
If you get the read 90% of the time (a more likely upper bound when you include playing a few hands against a relief dealer etc.), the figures change to EV 2.797%, variance 2.999, N0 3833, Kelly ratio 0.009326, DI of 16.15 and SCORE of 260.88.
Looking down my tables your $5 bet should be under kelly for a $1000 Backroll as long as you catch the Hole at least around 75% of the time.
Quote: teliothttps://apheat.net/2013/01/09/hole-carding-three-card-poker-random-walks-ror/
Did he adjust and lower his bet as he was losing? This is one huge mistake AP's make when they don't have a replenishable bankroll.
Quote: RSI think that (at least partially) defeats the purpose of a random walk sim.
Wasn't asking about the sim. Was asking about his friend. As I'm losing, I'm adjusting my bet lower to keep the RoR near 0%.
Quote: dajakestaUpdate: lady variance kicked me in the balls today. played the game with a 40 unit br and i kept on seeing 2-j and then the dealer qualifies most of the time with a bad bottom card. I lost about 38 units due to variance. Good thing is the session ended positive because I went to grind on some double deck blackjack and some baccarat. It sucks when you play a game with an advantage and you lose and win on some game that is due to random chance (baccarat) and basic strategy (blackjack)
If you're going to play 3cp you better get used to having many losing sessions.
One thing I've always wondered but have never found the question to is if I am playing 2 hands or if I happen to glance at another players cards and all of the hands are fold hands, are you still supposed to always raise? If no, does it make any difference if any of the cards are copy cards to the dealers?
Quote: SandybestdogLast time I played 3cp there were 28 hands I had that basic strategy said to fold but I played cause that's what you're supposed to do. I didn't miss any cards and didn't make any mistakes. The dealer qualified on 26 of them. For fun sake I tried it again a few weeks ago. 16 hands that were supposed to be folded, the dealer qualified on 14 of them.
One thing I've always wondered but have never found the question to is if I am playing 2 hands or if I happen to glance at another players cards and all of the hands are fold hands, are you still supposed to always raise? If no, does it make any difference if any of the cards are copy cards to the dealers?
It's discussed in the "book",but even if you can see all others cards the gain is negligible.
