Baccarat: My Experience
My experience: I have played baccarat on and off for 8 + years starting with a $500.00 bankroll and have netted > $XXX,000.00 to date without having risked more than my original $500.00. For some, this is pennies and nothing worth posting about. For me, it is an accomplishment and journey that comes with some valuable information for those that want to learn from it.
In the end, it is and always will be gambling. If someone says otherwise, they are lying. If someone has discovered a useful way to change the odds or probabilities or an AP advantage that they actually use to make money from playing the game, they will not make it available online nor in a forum until it is no longer useful.
I assume most know the odds and the dangers of gambling. I also assume there are various motives for those searching information about the game and participating in a forum such as this. I only joined and posted on this forum because of all the dangerous information and minutia one is bombarded with online. This isn't intended for the experts nor those just seeking entertainment. It's intended for those who might fall prey and become victims to ill intended information and some well intended but bad information. I've both heard and witnessed my share of horror stories, and can envision the desperate, out of work and retired buying into a promise of supplemental income, etc.
Examples of dangerous information:
- Any claim of changing the odds to one's advantage or giving an edge.
- Anything that guarantees anything.
- Anything that a system seller is telling you.
- Anything that has to do with taking more and more money out of the bank.
- Anything that has to do with steep negative progressions.
- Etc.
Examples of bad information:
- Anything that calls for risking a lot for small wins.
- Anything that can only be done if well funded.
- Any claim of a statistical / probable advantage.
- Etc.
This in no way is intended to encourage anyone to start nor continue gambling. It may however be useful information to those that have already decided to do so. So many claim to be winning, but it's all smoke and mirrors and evasion when it comes to the details. This is my attempt at providing some useful details for my own experience if one still chooses to play the game.
The assumption is that we all know that the house has a built in advantage and that we still choose to play for the perceived chance at winning.
Basic strategy based on the mathematical odds is to always bet banker because of the slight edge given to the banker hand based on the 3rd. card drawing rules. Optimal basic strategy I assume would be something like betting it all at once or some version of 1 2 on banker to limit exposure to the house edge. Few choose to actually do this because of the built in high variance that results in plenty of player hands which can be verified by simply looking at any board. This variance is also arguably what give us the perceived chance at winning when the odds are against us. Everything else is a workaround to give us more than one perceived opportunity.
Bottom Line: I got lucky.
But, how?:
I have used multiple strategies with different combinations of BSs and MMs throughout the years. The commonality is that most allowed me to get very lucky on multiple occasions. Meaning, I was able to catch a series of wins at a prolonged positive rate within a session on multiple sessions. I quit when the rate became negative.
To simplify: Luck = + Variance
+ = Being on the Right Side
I was on the right side of variance, lucky, just long and frequently enough that I won more when I won and lost less than I won when I lost to get a net profit overall on a weekly, monthly and yearly basis. I won more when I was on a long series of + variance than I lost when I was on a short series of – variance by extending my winning sessions and shortening my losing ones.
Although I used different BSs throughout the years, most allowed me the opportunity or chance to get a series of wins over a prolonged period within a session. For example, one is only betting banker which I more often than not use today. I have had multiple sessions winning at a positive rate on short and long banker runs and guessing correctly by sitting out on player hands and runs. An example of a session win would be turning a $2,000.00 buy in into $18,000.00 in winnings starting with a unit size of $100.00. My largest winnings in a single session was $XXX,000.00 from $XXX.00 in an extended 24 hour session only betting player which I have never been able to repeat. I started with $25.00 units and lost to $XXX.00 and started betting $20.00 units until in the end I was betting $X,000.00 a hand.
I quit sessions when I was losing early. For example, I have left within 2 minutes on multiple occasions when I lost the 1st. 3 hands bet. I normally quit or take a break when I lose 3 hands in a row or after say 10 hands my bankroll has decreased or not changed.
I keep playing and increasing my unit size when winning at a positive rate. For example, I more often than not use a unit size of 5 – 10% of my bankroll. After several hands, say 10, I check to see if my bankroll has increased. If it has, I keep playing and increase by unit size by the same percentage of bankroll. If I have won several units, I may double up if I feel confident about a hand here and there during runs.
Conversely, I quit or decrease my unit size when I'm losing. For example, I may decrease my unit size after several hands if my bankroll has decreased by the same percentage of bankroll or quit the session altogether.
I consistently only bring a small session bankroll even after a large win. For example, I may have won $15,000.00 from a $1,000.00 buy in, but for the next session, I still only bring the same $1,000.00.
These are some of the actionable traits that I believe allowed me to be lucky for several years.
Note that I did not mention that I had more winning sessions than losing ones nor that I played a negative progression to turn a losing session into a winning one.
Just like player and banker hands, my winning and losing sessions seem to have their own patterns and trends due to variance.
So even without a calculated edge, I've managed to net a large profit even after several years of continuous play.
I don't keep a score card nor calculate any stats other than keeping a log of my winnings and losses.
No way you are ahead that much- not even remotely possible
Please tell me your secret to your win, it sounds like you are more than 12 standard deviations above EV,
Did you do this by edge sorting? (phil ivey style)
Did you steal chips from the dealer?
oohh I know!
did you take chips from the whale next to you who was too drunk to notice you just jacked him of over half a mil?
yeah, thats gotta be it :)
.Quote: Bondy3Im not sure why, but im going to feed the troll here.
Please tell me your secret to your win, it sounds like you are more than 12 standard deviations above EV,
Did you do this by edge sorting? (phil ivey style)
Did you steal chips from the dealer?
oohh I know!
did you take chips from the whale next to you who was too drunk to notice you just jacked him of over half a mil?
yeah, thats gotta be it :)
Quote: GWAESince we all know flagging works, if everyone just hit flag instead of replying then we would just make the thread disappesr.
but he declared he is just lucky and not selling anything (yet).
can't we tolerate someone to brag about his lucky story?
BaccPM, are you asking if there is anything about your methods that anyone might recognize as something that works? Nothing I can see, there is nothing new about trying to bet when the table is hot, or quitting while ahead, and all that.
If you think your claims as to winnings don't beg credulity, then think again. You might find yourself getting angry at these responses, and I have to say you're getting both barrels so far, but no response can be faulted for calling your claims into question per se. You really should expect it.
Quote: BaccPMBottom Line: I got lucky
It would seem so. But a reasonable person can't even accept that, since alternative explanations are better founded than accepting your story at face value. These alternatives are just more likely by many orders of magnitude.
Quote: andysifbut he declared he is just lucky and not selling anything (yet).
can't we tolerate someone to brag about his lucky story?
sure we could but how many think it is a real story?
none of the bac people are ever selling anything. They just like to..........
Quote: TomGThis is the type of information I would be willing to pay for. If I could get an even more detailed account of this strategy I would be willing to pay quite a bit.
Lolololol
Quote: TomGThis is the type of information I would be willing to pay for. If I could get an even more detailed account of this strategy I would be willing to pay quite a bit.
I'd pay for incontrovertible proof of these type claims, that would be a start.
I'd also like to be able to bet against someone trying to double umm triple umm quadruple umm quintuple umm sextuple , well, geometrically increase their bankroll in any size session they would like within reason, and be able to do so over as many days as they like, using their systems and strategies. We could start with just doubling, actually.
If you are ever lucky enough to run into and meet someone who you think and know is "successful" and willing to share things with you he/she wouldn't charge you one cent. Maybe a cup of coffee or you pay for lunch/dinner that is about it. No more no less. He/she would just give whatever is working for him or her. This person wouldn't need your money since he/she can go and extract it where it really counts. At the tables.
The question is what do you have to offer this person who is willing to share things with you? If you offer something that will help his/her game I would bet this person would be quite open in helping you.
http://tuckermax.me/the-right-wrong-way-to-ask-for-a-job-or-a-mentor/
If you think this is some one way street where you are the only one on the receiving end without contributing anything in return, you ain't going to get any. Plus offering money to buy your way out to obtain the information and method(s) you are going to be very disappointed.
What is up with that guy?!? I watch all of his videos when they come up on YouTube. He is a Svengali of sorts. I cannot figure out what his deal is, though, can you?Quote: DMSCRTai Lopez!! Is that you??? LOL. Did you apply your 67 steps to this? Ha ha ha.
Can you say snake oil?
Quote: WizardofnothingI hope that was a cut and paste from another forum because if not you spent a lot of time to post nonsense.
No way you are ahead that much- not even remotely possible
Hey, he did! I wonder which one is the original?
http://betselection.cc/baccarat-forum/my-experience/
Quote: Dalex64Hey, he did! I wonder which one is the original?
http://betselection.cc/baccarat-forum/my-experience/
Naturally the schlups there believe it and some offer up their own nonsense.
Quote: andysifbut he declared he is just lucky and not selling anything (yet).
can't we tolerate someone to brag about his lucky story?
Hmmmm. 500 into 662,000. Proability of about 1300 to 1 against ignoring house edge. The scale of his big bets is such that Variance would be wide relative to expected return.
I don't buy it, but then I cannot really scoff too much as my own Blackjack wagering career took me from 100 to 12,000
But what did he actually have to say? Nothing really about strategy and nothing useful. I fear a well crafted story, planted here with the sole mischievous intention of stirring up controversy.
That said. Welcome newbie and good for you if it's true.
Totally forgot about that site. Going to check it out to see what is going on with that joint.
Quote: Dalex64Hey, he did! I wonder which one is the original?
http://betselection.cc/baccarat-forum/my-experience/
Crikey. That forum is a mumbo jumbo wonderland. The OP is there giving advice on chops and trends and streaks and bet selections. If he brings that advice here he will be shredded.
If you see BPPBBBTTPPPBPBBPPPPPBBBPPBPPB then bet BPPBBTTPPBPPB with a 1-2-4-8-16 progression. LOL. That site is a continual regurgitation of the same old nonsense from the same old cartoon characters from the days of old BaccaratForums and Baccaratlabs. Actually I applaud this continuation. It keeps the status quo going and the casinos maintain their money making from the game through the kinds of thought process that is practiced by 99% of the patrons who visit these baccarat tables.
Ha ha just ran through a few threads and realized egalite is banned from there too. As usual in his typical fashion he comes back with another nick. I would hate to be a mod for a forum he pops up in.
Quote: OnceDearIf he brings that advice here he will be shredded.
If you bring a cure to cancer in here it would be shredded. LOL. Yet trying to plunk down 100 preservative laden chicken mcnuggets and puking it all down is welcome.
Ha ha.
Quote: Bondy3it sounds like you are more than 12 standard deviations above EV,
More like 4 sigma above
P<500/662,000 or about 1 in 1300 if we assume that House edge is negligible compared to variance experienced ( Lots of big bets )
There is a formula that takes into account HE and variance, but I can't be bothered. Let's call it 1 in 2000.
Look at the table on this page which converts SD to probability
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/68%E2%80%9395%E2%80%9399.7_rule
I'm glad to see you made a point that you are not doing anything special, no system, no real method and no magic monkey. You're just extremely lucky thus far. Most likely if you took someone else, someone who thought and played exactly like you, they would run the exact opposite of you and lose what you have allegedly won plus the commissions.Quote: BaccPMI am no self proclaimed expert and can only offer my version of truthful and useful information.
My experience: I have played baccarat on and off for 8 + years starting with a $500.00 bankroll and have netted > $XXX,000.00 to date without having risked more than my original $500.00. For some, this is pennies and nothing worth posting about. For me, it is an accomplishment and journey that comes with some valuable information for those that want to learn from it.
In the end, it is and always will be gambling. If someone says otherwise, they are lying. If someone has discovered a useful way to change the odds or probabilities or an AP advantage that they actually use to make money from playing the game, they will not make it available online nor in a forum until it is no longer useful.
I assume most know the odds and the dangers of gambling. I also assume there are various motives for those searching information about the game and participating in a forum such as this. I only joined and posted on this forum because of all the dangerous information and minutia one is bombarded with online. This isn't intended for the experts nor those just seeking entertainment. It's intended for those who might fall prey and become victims to ill intended information and some well intended but bad information. I've both heard and witnessed my share of horror stories, and can envision the desperate, out of work and retired buying into a promise of supplemental income, etc.
Examples of dangerous information:
- Any claim of changing the odds to one's advantage or giving an edge.
- Anything that guarantees anything.
- Anything that a system seller is telling you.
- Anything that has to do with taking more and more money out of the bank.
- Anything that has to do with steep negative progressions.
- Etc.
Examples of bad information:
- Anything that calls for risking a lot for small wins.
- Anything that can only be done if well funded.
- Any claim of a statistical / probable advantage.
- Etc.
This in no way is intended to encourage anyone to start nor continue gambling. It may however be useful information to those that have already decided to do so. So many claim to be winning, but it's all smoke and mirrors and evasion when it comes to the details. This is my attempt at providing some useful details for my own experience if one still chooses to play the game.
The assumption is that we all know that the house has a built in advantage and that we still choose to play for the perceived chance at winning.
Basic strategy based on the mathematical odds is to always bet banker because of the slight edge given to the banker hand based on the 3rd. card drawing rules. Optimal basic strategy I assume would be something like betting it all at once or some version of 1 2 on banker to limit exposure to the house edge. Few choose to actually do this because of the built in high variance that results in plenty of player hands which can be verified by simply looking at any board. This variance is also arguably what give us the perceived chance at winning when the odds are against us. Everything else is a workaround to give us more than one perceived opportunity.
Bottom Line: I got lucky.
But, how?:
I have used multiple strategies with different combinations of BSs and MMs throughout the years. The commonality is that most allowed me to get very lucky on multiple occasions. Meaning, I was able to catch a series of wins at a prolonged positive rate within a session on multiple sessions. I quit when the rate became negative.
To simplify: Luck = + Variance
+ = Being on the Right Side
I was on the right side of variance, lucky, just long and frequently enough that I won more when I won and lost less than I won when I lost to get a net profit overall on a weekly, monthly and yearly basis. I won more when I was on a long series of + variance than I lost when I was on a short series of – variance by extending my winning sessions and shortening my losing ones.
Although I used different BSs throughout the years, most allowed me the opportunity or chance to get a series of wins over a prolonged period within a session. For example, one is only betting banker which I more often than not use today. I have had multiple sessions winning at a positive rate on short and long banker runs and guessing correctly by sitting out on player hands and runs. An example of a session win would be turning a $2,000.00 buy in into $18,000.00 in winnings starting with a unit size of $100.00. My largest winnings in a single session was $XXX,000.00 from $XXX.00 in an extended 24 hour session only betting player which I have never been able to repeat. I started with $25.00 units and lost to $XXX.00 and started betting $20.00 units until in the end I was betting $X,000.00 a hand.
I quit sessions when I was losing early. For example, I have left within 2 minutes on multiple occasions when I lost the 1st. 3 hands bet. I normally quit or take a break when I lose 3 hands in a row or after say 10 hands my bankroll has decreased or not changed.
I keep playing and increasing my unit size when winning at a positive rate. For example, I more often than not use a unit size of 5 – 10% of my bankroll. After several hands, say 10, I check to see if my bankroll has increased. If it has, I keep playing and increase by unit size by the same percentage of bankroll. If I have won several units, I may double up if I feel confident about a hand here and there during runs.
Conversely, I quit or decrease my unit size when I'm losing. For example, I may decrease my unit size after several hands if my bankroll has decreased by the same percentage of bankroll or quit the session altogether.
I consistently only bring a small session bankroll even after a large win. For example, I may have won $15,000.00 from a $1,000.00 buy in, but for the next session, I still only bring the same $1,000.00.
These are some of the actionable traits that I believe allowed me to be lucky for several years.
Note that I did not mention that I had more winning sessions than losing ones nor that I played a negative progression to turn a losing session into a winning one.
Just like player and banker hands, my winning and losing sessions seem to have their own patterns and trends due to variance.
So even without a calculated edge, I've managed to net a large profit even after several years of continuous play.
I don't keep a score card nor calculate any stats other than keeping a log of my winnings and losses.
You have every right to come tell your stories, but we have every right to be skeptical of such outrageous claims. We have been though this all before multiple times.
There's people here like AOS (odds are he WILL be back)who share their casino adventures. People enjoy reading about and following his stories. For the most part we believe his reports and don't feel the need to question his claims. NVM that he allegedly lost 40 in a row(ok 30, but who's counting). Why is it that so many people followed and enjoy his trip reports? Because he took the time to meet up with people from the forum. He's posted pictures times dates locations etc. There's also people who can verify he plays at the levels he is claiming.
There's been others here who have also posted trip reports that have validity as well.
Since you don't have some super secret system and you are not selling anything. My suggestion is that you do the same thing and invite someone to tag along during one of your playing sessions(I Volunteer). This way people at least know you are legitimate and as lucky as you claim you are. It's really that simple.
99% of the time the Bullshi**ers make a bunch of excuses why they can't or won't do so.
That's because 99% of the time, that's all it is, just a bunch of friggin BS.
I'm also saying that I didn't get lucky by figuring something out that gives me an edge.
I don't have a way to win sessions consistently.
I just got extremely 'lucky' on several occasions by compounding winnings and not because I brought a large bankroll with me or took bigger risks.
I just got lucky playing the game as is. I didn't research, calculate, observe or discover anything.
It's the least popular and most disregarded answer, but it's mine.
Quote: BaccPMBasically, I'm saying that I got 'lucky' and won a lot. The reason I'm ahead is because I didn't give it all back.
I'm also saying that I didn't get lucky by figuring something out that gives me an edge.
I don't have a way to win sessions consistently.
I just got extremely 'lucky' on several occasions by compounding winnings and not because I brought a large bankroll with me or took bigger risks.
I just got lucky playing the game as is. I didn't research, calculate, observe or discover anything.
It's the least popular and most disregarded answer, but it's mine.
Then good on ya.
Just take care that your probability of crossing the $1m profit line is now very similar to the probability of passing through the $0 profit line. And there is a massive risk that you are now addicted to high rolling.
If you plan to communicate make sure it is email only. Or PM through whatever forum you are using. No phone. No text. If you have to do so by phone make sure it is not a home phone and only through a prepaid cellphone. Or better yet a phone app through WiFi.
Quote: OnceDearMore like 4 sigma above
P<500/662,000 or about 1 in 1300 if we assume that House edge is negligible compared to variance experienced ( Lots of big bets )
There is a formula that takes into account HE and variance, but I can't be bothered. Let's call it 1 in 2000.
Look at the table on this page which converts SD to probability
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/68%E2%80%9395%E2%80%9399.7_rule
from his story its clear he isnt playing optimally, (hes making a lot of little bets vs a few big bets, so the house edge should be eating at him more, I stick by what I said about 12+ sigma above average
Quote: Bondy3from his story its clear he isnt playing optimally, (hes making a lot of little bets vs a few big bets, so the house edge should be eating at him more, I stick by what I said about 12+ sigma above average
Not really arguing. What I find most incredible about his story is the aparrent proportion of big winning sessions to wipeouts. If he's generally going in with 1000 or so and he's pushing those to >10,000 in a typical session, then he can expect 10s or more of dead loss sessions for each successful session. Over 8 years that would have crushed his spirit.
He's already said he has nothing other than LUCK. There's nothing to give away.Quote: DMSCROkay you win it all through luck that is fine. Say if you have something concrete NOT a good idea to meet with anyone in person. You have NOTHING to prove to anyone. It would do you more harm than good. This is coming from personal experience. Most of the time meeting these people is more about what they can TAKE FROM YOU than what you can gain from the meeting. I mean if they have something on their own they do not need you and see you as a potential liability. Absolute waste of time. Then they will badger you to no end during live play where it totally interrupts your game. Then you will have to either color out and remove yourself and forget you ever met or get rid of this person where at the same time your mental state is negatively affected. At worst if you give them your idea(s) they take them, call it their own and start to sell it. Worst betrayal back stab ever. At the very worst of the spectrum they plan to rob you knowing that you will be carrying a wad of cash. The latter have not happened to me (knock on wood). And the lesson from all this? If you have something keep your mouth shut you have nothing to prove to the world. In the world of risk taking this is not Elon Musk trying to save the world. It is more like Mark Zuckerberg meets the Winklevoss. School of Hard Knocks at its very finest.
If you plan to communicate make sure it is email only. Or PM through whatever forum you are using. No phone. No text. If you have to do so by phone make sure it is not a home phone and only through a prepaid cellphone. Or better yet a phone app through WiFi.
I agree you shouldn't meet up with every Joe Blow on the internet. However there are some people who have good reputations, people who don't want anything or care about their method of play. Someone where there's no fear of anything or any bad consequences.
It's obvious he avoided responding to this subject. I can only assume its another bogus ploy.
I'm not saying he's B79 but it's all just the same to me.
Quote: DMSCROkay you win it all through luck that is fine. Say if you have something concrete NOT a good idea to meet with anyone in person. You have NOTHING to prove to anyone. It would do you more harm than good. This is coming from personal experience. Most of the time meeting these people is more about what they can TAKE FROM YOU than what you can gain from the meeting. I mean if they have something on their own they do not need you and see you as a potential liability. Absolute waste of time. Then they will badger you to no end during live play where it totally interrupts your game. Then you will have to either color out and remove yourself and forget you ever met or get rid of this person where at the same time your mental state is negatively affected. At worst if you give them your idea(s) they take them, call it their own and start to sell it. Worst betrayal back stab ever. At the very worst of the spectrum they plan to rob you knowing that you will be carrying a wad of cash. The latter have not happened to me (knock on wood). And the lesson from all this? If you have something keep your mouth shut you have nothing to prove to the world. In the world of risk taking this is not Elon Musk trying to save the world. It is more like Mark Zuckerberg meets the Winklevoss. School of Hard Knocks at its very finest.
If you plan to communicate make sure it is email only. Or PM through whatever forum you are using. No phone. No text. If you have to do so by phone make sure it is not a home phone and only through a prepaid cellphone. Or better yet a phone app through WiFi.
I must say this has NOT been my experience on this forum. I have met up with members more than a dozen times, and this was the furthest thing from how it went, every time. Can't speak for who you're meeting or why (though I don't think you've come to any events or met anybody from here; obviously I could be wrong).
Actually, it's the most popular and most respected answer on here. If you know this much, you're well ahead of most other bacc posters on here, if not all.Quote: BaccPMBasically, I'm saying that I got 'lucky' and won a lot. The reason I'm ahead is because I didn't give it all back.
I'm also saying that I didn't get lucky by figuring something out that gives me an edge.
I don't have a way to win sessions consistently.
I just got extremely 'lucky' on several occasions by compounding winnings and not because I brought a large bankroll with me or took bigger risks.
I just got lucky playing the game as is. I didn't research, calculate, observe or discover anything.
It's the least popular and most disregarded answer, but it's mine.
Quote: lovebacgameI wish I have some of your luck BaccPm. I never win anything from casino. Every time I go to casino always trying to win back my lost money and so far not successful at it. Hope you help this rookie out with some of your good luck.
He's laid out a strategy for you: wait till the table is hot, and quit while you are ahead. Oh, and get lucky.
Quote: beachbumbabsI must say this has NOT been my experience on this forum. I have met up with members more than a dozen times, and this was the furthest thing from how it went, every time. Can't speak for who you're meeting or why (though I don't think you've come to any events or met anybody from here; obviously I could be wrong).
From reading your get togethers it seems everyone and everything is quite respectable and cordial. As for myself that is not so. Well not here but in the old BaccaratForum site. Met two folks and both of them are such utter crap. Especially this character.
http://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/pr5982-11
This lovely human of a specimen whom I met up at Foxwoods in 2009 took my idea(s) and tried to pimp it as his own. I kind of grew suspicious when we played two shoes together where he hardly made any bets. He kept eyeing my recording method and asking lots of questions afterwards.
The onus is on him.
Second meeting with another upstanding citizen at Foxwoods this 50ish dude is an absolute lost cause. Wasn't really interested in baccarat at all but very interested in leeching off my free play coupons and food comp in hopes of selling them for $10 bucks each.
The onus is on me.
Then on the third meeting with someone in Vegas Message Board and chilled over at the Wynn Buffet on his dime where he wanted a 70/30 split of profits. And guess who is the one with the 30%? LOL. I am not interested in his money nor his attempt to control my time.
I call that a draw.
Now I hope you understand why I have such a sarcastic stand offish attitude and an absolute negative outlook in terms of meeting people from online. Well could be worst he could be some serial killer wanting chop off my toes and use it as a pool stick.
The baccarat scene is full of questionable folks and charlatans. In my own travels through the tables through these years I have only met two "successful" who really do pretty well. But that is also questionable because I didn't observed them for months or years only through a few encounters at the tables. Well that goes for poker too but there are some very respectable people you run into but that is very far and between.
Wadda ya say?
Quote: OnceDearWell WON I have won and am a winner on -ev Blackjack. And I'm willing to provide evidence of that, via a moderator of your choice. Not Proof of course, but convincing evidence nonetheless. Mostly with luck. Am I insane to post to my blog here? wher I present my numbers as charts.?
Do you really care what WoN thinks about your results? Blog away to your heart's content. :)
Quote: OnceDearWell WON I have won and am a winner on -ev Blackjack. And I'm willing to provide evidence of that, via a moderator of your choice. Not Proof of course, but convincing evidence nonetheless. Mostly with luck. Am I insane to post to my blog here? wher I present my numbers as charts.?
Many of us could make the same statement with some -EV game, sometimes over a period of years. It's not too shocking a statement if we find it is within the bounds of 2 SDs, even exceeding that. Or to put it another way, where EV isn't eating SD alive [ev/sd].
Quote: op[netting] > $662,000.00 to date without having risked more than my original $500.00
whereas this kind of statement deserves skepticism to the nth. Or any other claims just thrown out there on the internet, especially with probative factors like "also copied and pasted same claim on other sites"
Quote: WizardofnothingRight, I'll amend my statement and apologize what I mean is that you might be up marginally but if you said you were up -a million over 750k hands on an -ev game without something else going other then luck i would be skeptical
Amendment and apology accepted.
You'd be right to be skeptical. The OP was claiming a 1300 fold increase with bad house edge game and an implication that he hardly ever loses.
I don't particularly buy it.
About my claims... and I did take slight umbrage at being called insane...
Quote: WizardofnothingOver what period of time and are you talking strictly on results of the game and not including mail and comps
Most of this is in my blog.
BJ lifetime is 2 years. First day luck took 100 to 6000, which became my seed money. I squandered down to about 1200. Then there was a period of bonus exploitation, which saw me back up to about 8K. about half that ascent was luck, and about half was exploit. I can't easily extract that from my stats. Bonus exploit ended completely in October while balance about 8k. Messing with Marty has seen me take that to £12K last week. Last night saw me turn 150 into 1150, so now I'm at £13K. I was playing -0.4% HE BJ. No mailers or any other offers ever except for initial sign up bonus of £150. 0.1% comp cash credit on all action. About £1m of action over the entire period with average wager somewhere in the order of £25 to £50.
So, my gains have been marginal apart from that day 1 experience, and a few good sessions of playing daft ideas like Marty and target betting.
I'll be the first to conclude my results are short term. Martying, Money management, target betting etc,. All pretty dumb as financial ideas. But I find they sometimes add fun. Sometimes create despair too, such as a session where £2K gets lost, and I've had those.
'Something else going on other than luck'..... Well actually I'm just starting to suspect that my game of choice is rigged very slightly in my favour at low stakes. and maybe counter rigged against higher stake players. But that's one for another day.
Quote: odiousgambitMany of us could make the same statement with some -EV game, sometimes over a period of years. It's not too shocking a statement if we find it is within the bounds of 2 SDs, even exceeding that. Or to put it another way, where EV isn't eating SD alive [ev/sd].
Quote: op[netting] > $662,000.00 to date without having risked more than my original $500.00
whereas this kind of statement deserves skepticism to the nth. Or any other claims just thrown out there on the internet, especially with probative factors like "also copied and pasted same claim on other sites"
I agree wholly with that.
