Baccarat loser for casinos?
January 15th, 2016 at 11:19:59 AM
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I have a friend who claims that baccarat is a loser for casinos in that players can (and do, he claims) win so much that they break the bank. I said that if that happened often, the casinos wouldn't offer it or would change the rules. But, he claims, the casinos offer it only because it attracts the whales who, when they "occasionally" lose there, move on to other games where they lose big.
This sounds like an urban myth, or a casino myth, to me. What's up with his idea? Thanks for any help to set me or him straight.
This sounds like an urban myth, or a casino myth, to me. What's up with his idea? Thanks for any help to set me or him straight.
January 15th, 2016 at 1:04:03 PM
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Quote: bigjohnof406I have a friend who claims that baccarat is a loser for casinos in that players can (and do, he claims) win so much that they break the bank.....
This sounds like an urban myth, or a casino myth, to me. What's up with his idea? Thanks for any help to set me or him straight.
He's wrong.
The average monthly percentage of the money gambled on Baccarat that the casinos retained (the Hold), was 12.01% in Nevada from 2004 - 2015.
Nevada Table Games
January 15th, 2016 at 4:34:50 PM
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our casino thrives on the bacc action.
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January 15th, 2016 at 4:56:59 PM
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Quote: ontariodealerour casino thrives on the bacc action.
As does ours, in Alberta.
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January 15th, 2016 at 7:13:12 PM
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Quote: TankoHe's wrong.
The average monthly percentage of the money gambled on Baccarat that the casinos retained (the Hold), was 12.01% in Nevada from 2004 - 2015.
Nevada Table Games
Interesting that I see this figure quoted in another thread as well.
However, from government report issued in Macao, that figure is more like 3%, which is a lot closer to the theoretical hold.
Wonder why Vegas's figure is so high.
January 15th, 2016 at 7:35:44 PM
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Probably because it takes into account all of the tie bets and side be bonus which is everywhere in Vegas
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January 15th, 2016 at 10:18:33 PM
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shift managers and casino managers and casino owners always want to see the Bacc figures first thing.
Its two eggs scrambled, potatoes, coffee and the Bacc figures.
It aint never the Big Six Wheel figures.
Even casinos that go whaleless keep Bacc in place.
Its two eggs scrambled, potatoes, coffee and the Bacc figures.
It aint never the Big Six Wheel figures.
Even casinos that go whaleless keep Bacc in place.
January 16th, 2016 at 6:19:24 AM
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Quote: andysifHowever, from government report issued in Macao, that figure is more like 3%, which is a lot closer to the theoretical hold.
Wonder why Vegas's figure is so high.
According to This Article, the Baccarat hold in Macau is 15-17%.
The reported lower Macau hold of 3% may be due to different accounting practices.
Win/Total Drop (Nevada) vs. Win/Turnover (Macau)
January 16th, 2016 at 6:35:21 AM
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The statement that casinos lose in baccarat would defy the basic principle of house edge and -ev
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January 16th, 2016 at 8:07:27 AM
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Quote: WizardofnothingThe statement that casinos lose in baccarat would defy the basic principle of house edge and -ev
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THIS
January 16th, 2016 at 8:11:20 AM
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Non-negotiable chips gives a win-rate of about 3% per non-negotiable, assuming a few Tie bets. That must be what they are referring to. NN's are the de-facto wagering instrument in the once dominant high-roller segment.Quote: TankoThe reported lower Macau hold of 3% may be due to different accounting practices.
Last edited by: unnamed administrator on Aug 8, 2024
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January 17th, 2016 at 5:59:15 PM
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Quote: teliotNon-negotiable chips gives a win-rate of about 3% per non-negotiable, assuming a few Tie bets. That must be what they are referring to. NN's are the de-facto wagering instrument in the once dominant high-roller segment.
I think this is the proper explanation of the 3% hold.
The next logical question would be: why the difference?
I don't think side bet alone could be accounted for an additional 10% hold. The simple fact is, baccarat side bet is just not that popular. I don't know what is the variance for baccarat hold, but 10% must be 6 or 7 SD away from the mean.
Conspiracy theory: NN chips is traceable and well accounted for, while normal play is relatively hard to track. I wonder how many of that 10% is really from "other sources".
Last edited by: unnamed administrator on Aug 8, 2024
January 17th, 2016 at 6:45:46 PM
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Because the measurements are done in different ways. When you are using NN's you get one number (as above), where "hold" is synonymous with house edge. When you use cash chips you get another definition of "hold" (Win/Drop). The word "hold" is used in both ways in the industry, thus the confusion.Quote: andysifThe next logical question would be: why the difference?
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January 17th, 2016 at 7:50:06 PM
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I would imagine a high roller could break a month for many casinos. Maybe it happened two months in a row, then a rumor started?
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January 22nd, 2016 at 11:44:22 AM
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Kerry Packer bankrupted a casino (South America I think), certainly inflicted major hurt on many casinos world-wide (millions from a casino in London), then again he did use to bet up to $250k per hand, nevertheless lost more than he ever won.
January 22nd, 2016 at 12:23:39 PM
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I could see baccarat as a game that could scare the casinos a bit. I'm not sure of what the table limits are in the high roller rooms. But, if someone was dropping 200k bets then won 7 or 8 hands in a row and left, that would hurt the casino a bit. I've seen runs like that in baccarat. Having said that, baccarat is one of my least favorite games in the casino. That is especially true for the minibac where only the dealer can touch the cards. I know the proper strategy for the game is to bet exclusively bank since it yields a lower HE even with the commission taken. That is one casino game I just have no enthusiasm to play. I don't understand why it is so popular in Macau.
January 22nd, 2016 at 1:18:55 PM
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And the mystery deepens.....
Here is the rub for those who care. Bac in Vegas in my opinion is very very liberal to the point of being absurd. Given that so many folks lose in this game it would be advantageous for Vegas to offer these liberal conditions. For now I am sure. As for Macau not so in various locations. Various Macau casinos prohibit you from recording the game where it is usually the norm everywhere else. You must rely on that electronic scoreboard. When asked about this the answer given doesn't even jive and a brush off reply of "This is policy." and that was as far as the inquiry goes. Pretty darn cryptic.
Here is the rub for those who care. Bac in Vegas in my opinion is very very liberal to the point of being absurd. Given that so many folks lose in this game it would be advantageous for Vegas to offer these liberal conditions. For now I am sure. As for Macau not so in various locations. Various Macau casinos prohibit you from recording the game where it is usually the norm everywhere else. You must rely on that electronic scoreboard. When asked about this the answer given doesn't even jive and a brush off reply of "This is policy." and that was as far as the inquiry goes. Pretty darn cryptic.
