Craps and the Place Bet - "On" or "Off" on the Come Out?
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 | 3 votes (16.66%) | ||
| | 15 votes (83.33%) |
18 members have voted
Of course, if you turn them off and a bunch of sixes and eights come up, you'll kick yourself, and if you leave them on and people keep rolling come out sevens you'll kick yourself.
Last trip, I left them on and got schmeissed the first night, so I decided to leave 'em off after that.
So even if you have a bunch of place bets, you can feel free to root for a come out 7. Heck, even if the dice have no memory, players love the emotional aspect of getting the sevens out of the shooter's system.
So, yeah! Turn 'em off!
What bothers me is, why do hardway bets stay on, on a come out roll, and why only in Vegas? Everywhere else I've played, hardways are off on a come out roll...
Maybe I misunderstood. I think you are talking about odds for a come/don't come bet made while rolling on a different point. If so, I think whether they are working or not is irrelevant as far as EV amount and better to have them working as far as EV as a percentage of your total wagering. When you say "supposed to be left on", I think that is incorrect as far as what the casino is supposed to do by default.Quote: teddsOdds are technically supposed to be left on every roll
Edit: I could be mistaken here -- odds for don't come bets probably work by default on a new come out roll. I wasn't thinking clearly on that, since I never bet the don't. I'm confident the odds on existing come bets are off by default but may be called on.
I have found this to be inconsistent from casino to casino, most everywhere I have played -- is it really consistent within Las Vegas? If so, I hadn't realized that. Most stick men will make a comment like "hardways on unless called off" or the other way around, until they learn what way you prefer to play them. But different stick men within a casino use the same default.Quote: DJTeddyBearWhat bothers me is, why do hardway bets stay on, on a come out roll, and why only in Vegas? Everywhere else I've played, hardways are off on a come out roll...
Sure, I am happy, with a Pass Line bet, to see a 7. I just don't get the "getting the sevens out of the shooter's system" though. I know, it would not be enjoyable to see a Place Six and Place 8 go down, but if it's a good bet (and I use the term "good" loosely) to make initially, why not let it continue to work, even on the Come Out? I have tried to see (using search) on WOO and WOV to see what the math-man says, but couldn't find anything. I expect he would say to let them work. Hope he weighs in.
Harways should be off for the same reason.
Quote: DeMangoCome odds have to be off on the comeout roll, you are trying to roll a seven! But then again why use the come bet at all?
Very good point...Why make a Come Bet? And, if you do, why put up Odds, if you're going to have them "Off" on the Come Out (I know why the Odds are put up, of course)? Suppose, though, that you are not the shooter, and you missed the initial Come Out. You make a Come Bet and put up Odds and the shooter makes his initial point. Isn't the Come Bet, in essence, your Come Out point? You make no further bets, so, wouldn't you want the Odds working? Of course one would. I know it seems a bit far-fetched, but I just don't know why the bets aren't "good" all of the time. Don't get me wrong. I am not trying to be argumentative, just looking at what others have done in the past, and maybe hear some sound results. I started off my Craps playing as solely a wrong bettor. Now, I like the PL w/odds and Place Six/Place 8. Haven't bet wrong for a while, but have no aversion to it. When I initially started off betting right, I went with the old Ponzer: PL w/odds and 2 Come Bets w/odds. Now, I play as previously stated, but with the Place bets "Off", courtesy of the casino.
Directing that your Place bets and Come Odds bets are to work during a particular Pass come out roll is no better and no worse than passively permitting them to work on any ordinary roll. Turning them off for any ordinary roll is no better and no worse than passively permitting them to be off on the Pass come out roll.
Players on the Right side of Pass welcome natural sevens. Recognizing this fact a century ago when Come bets were invented, game management added black and white sides to the previously neutral Point indicator. Odds bets on Come numbers were then temporarily protected against loss, which would produce mixed feelings for the Right players. Similar reasoning extended the protection to Place bets. Your question is whether you personally desire such protection, which is based upon emotion rather than mathematics.
On Pass come out rolls, you can do as you please. Let your own intuition be your guide. If during a hot shoot you sense that Big Red is still far away then let your bets work. Every so often, tell your dealer that your Place bets and Odds bets are working coming out. Doing so really is not anti-social, but you may get some strange looks from other players. If their opinions matter then you may simply run with the pack and follow the puck.
The beauty of this game is that if you prefer to, "let it work", you simply inform the dealer. Make sure they put the "on" lammer on top of your odds bet.
Quote: DeMangoCome odds have to be off on the comeout roll, you are trying to roll a seven!
I'm not trying to roll a 7. In fact, if anything, I'd much prefer that I never roll a 7 ever, whether comeout roll or not.
So let's go back to the players.
Most players would rather they be off. WHY?
While the "You're rooting for a 7" sounds like an easy way to explain it, a different thought came to mind.
Whether you believe in control shooters or not, if such a shooter exists, and is at your table, then he is probably setting the dice to get a come out 7. That being the case, do you really want to have the bets on?
On the flip side, for the same (or opposite) reason, odds on dont come bets ARE on, on a come out, despite the puck saying "off".
Quote: ruascottI believe the Wizard mentions in his Craps analysis that you should keep the odds working all the time on the Come bets...which makes complete sense. You want to have your free odds always working.
https://wizardofodds.com/askthewizard/craps-oddsbets.html
It is the second question from the bottom of the page.
Quote:A: The player should always leave the odds on regardless of how many come bets are active. When considering the options looking at the probability of winning alone is not enough. Yes, with one come bet the odds of losing the come bet are greater than winning, however the potential win is greater than potential loss.
The reason the player should always leave the odds on are because it is a bet with zero house edge. By turning the odds off the player is making the overall game more heavily weighted towards the bets with a house edge, thus increasing the overall ratio of the expected loss to the total amount bet. June 10, 2000
I did not believe the Wizard when I first read that Q and A but after running sims in Wincraps.
Again,the Wizard is 100% correct.
The longer one plays, the free odds help to:
1)lower the $ loss when one does lose and
2)increases the $ win when one does wins.
Great to have the Wizard and computers on our side!
Quote: ChuckThe only "advantage," if you can call it that, to having them off on the come out roll is that you'll be exposed on fewer rolls, thus, since it's a negative expectation game, you'll potentially last longer for rating purposes.
Of course, if you turn them off and a bunch of sixes and eights come up, you'll kick yourself, and if you leave them on and people keep rolling come out sevens you'll kick yourself.
Actually, on the place bet, you only will miss one six or eight, as that number itself becomes the point. Your place bet then, in most cases, will come down anyway and most likely, become your odds to the pass line, or your place to another number if the shooter already established a point before.
Quote: TiltpoulActually, on the place bet, you only will miss one six or eight, as that number itself becomes the point. Your place bet then, in most cases, will come down anyway and most likely, become your odds to the pass line, or your place to another number if the shooter already established a point before.
You're right, but I was really referring to a bunch of sixes and/or eights coming up on the come out over the course of a session as opposed to a single shooter.
When I'm doing a session where I'm placing the six and eight, I usually don't bet the pass line, until the dice come around to me. I do like to shoot, so then I'll put a pass line bet down. If the point I roll is a six or an eight, I turn off or take down my place bet on that number and bet odds on the pass line.
Quote: ChuckYou're right, but I was really referring to a bunch of sixes and/or eights coming up on the come out over the course of a session as opposed to a single shooter.
Yes, the bunch of 6 and 8s. You are so right and they do come in bunches.
from all the points:
25.0% (6/24) chance point is 4,10
33.3% (8/24) chance point is 5,9
41.7% (10/24)chance point is 6,8
Quote: DJTeddyBearWhether you believe in control shooters or not, if such a shooter exists, and is at your table, then he is probably setting the dice to get a come out 7. That being the case, do you really want to have the bets on?
I always figured that if I had the ability to influence the dice (and I do, with a combination of voodoo, yoga, pilates, and zombie rituals) that I would not try to get a 7, again, ever. I'd much rather influence the dice in such a way as to DECREASE the 7 and INCREASE anything else. Or, if I had to be specific, I'd rather increase the probability of a 6 rolling. I know that dice setters and influencers will talk about being able to roll more 7's during a come out roll, but that just baffles me. I'd rather just roll more 6's. I mean, sure you can bet $100 on the line and roll a 7 and double it. But it seems more powerful to bet $100 on the line, roll a 6, back it up with max odds, and immediately roll another 6. Even if you break down the $100 bet into whatever it would be on the line plus max odds to equal $100, you'll do better than double the money. And, with all that being said, if I could increase the odds of rolling a 4 to above the odds of rolling a 7, I'd definitely go that way instead.
You can also turn this around and shoot from the don'ts with a 7 avoidance set, then set for the seven!
Quote: 7crapsSomewhere the Wizard states that 29.62% (I wrote it down but did not save the source, dummy me) of all numbers roll on the come out roll.
I also did not believe that to be true, computer sims prove the Wizards 29.62% number.
Since 29.62% of all 7s that roll, do it on the come out roll, I ran sims in Wincraps also to come up with the below numbers.
cor+1roll - 19.71%
cor+2rolls - 15.35%
cor+3rolls - 9.35%
I'm sure member "miplet" could easily make a recursive table to show the exact numbers.
The sims I ran prove that it does not matter if place bets are either working on the come out roll or not. They still win at the same frequency.
But when place bets are always working your losses are much greater when you lose and also your wins are greater when you win. again to be expected. That is what variance is all about.
So, there it goes, as to an answer I was really looking for. It doesn't truly matter, other than the variance. I think the thread got a little bit off-topic, with respect to the influencing of dice and dice-setting. And that is OK. I am not one who has reached any proficiency in that aspect. Now, if I can find someone at the table who is, you can bet your bottom dollar I will be on him/her shoot with all the cash I can muster. As for discussing the "Odds" bet on Come numbers, I really wasn't all that interested in their "working" or "not working", but I did raise the question. I don't believe in emotion or "due" bets as to if/when bets should be made. I just try to bet like an automaton with my strategy. Of course, I can't say I don't get excited when a shooter makes six Passes of the dice, or has allowed me to press my place bets up three or four times. However, that excitement does not influence me to bet the farm. I stay focused on my betting strategy. Thanks for all of your input. If you're in Las Vegas 2Aug - 6Aug, I will be out there trying to score with my basic PL w/Odds and Placing Six/8. Not sure if I will have the Place bets working or not. Maybe I will give it a shot to let them work, this trip.
Quote: slytherI used to have them on, now i have them off... no particular reason. I suppose it slightly lengthens my session time.
edit004
Quote: 7crapsSims prove that it actually does not make any difference overall.As long as they are ALWAYS off or ALWAYS on.
When a player is winning, bankrolls can last longer when working always
When a player is losing, bankrolls last longer when place bets are not working on the cor.
I think I just figured out my new crap/s system. Forget dice setting. Forget dice influencing. Forget bankrolling. All I need to know is the result of a come out roll. I can build a small time machine that will jump me forward about 5 seconds, see the result of the come out roll, and thus turn my place bets and odds bets either on or off depending on what I see.
Now I just need to find a flux capacitor on ebay.
Quote: konceptumI think I just figured out my new crap/s system. Forget dice setting. Forget dice influencing. Forget bankrolling. All I need to know is the result of a come out roll. I can build a small time machine that will jump me forward about 5 seconds, see the result of the come out roll, and thus turn my place bets and odds bets either on or off depending on what I see.
Now I just need to find a flux capacitor on ebay.
I might be able to find you a DeLorean.
Quote: bushmanI might be able to find you a DeLorean.
I think I have an extra "Mr. Fusion" in my garage.
if you had a time machine... what casino game would you play?
id say roulette, keno, or some supertrifecta in horseracing, or some huge multigame parlay in sports.
Quote: rudeboyoiactually that might make for an interesting thread.
if you had a time machine... what casino game would you play?
None. I'd buy lotto.
Quote: konceptumI think I just figured out my new crap/s system. Forget dice setting. Forget dice influencing. Forget bankrolling. All I need to know is the result of a come out roll. I can build a small time machine that will jump me forward about 5 seconds, see the result of the come out roll, and thus turn my place bets and odds bets either on or off depending on what I see.
Now I just need to find a flux capacitor on ebay.
Forget it. The plutonium is still a little hard to come by, and the current administration is not allowing the sale of Mr. Fusion due to several safety concerns.
There's a thread about this very topic.Quote: rudeboyoiactually that might make for an interesting thread.
if you had a time machine... what casino game would you play?
id say roulette, keno, or some supertrifecta in horseracing, or some huge multigame parlay in sports.
The first post is nothing but a short story, involving a time machine, memory recorder and roulette:
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/general/646-a-fool-proof-system-to-beat-roulette/
Very clever and entertaining. The follow-up posts are intersting too.
Quote: 7crapsSomewhere the Wizard states that 29.62% (I wrote it down but did not save the source, dummy me) of all numbers roll on the come out roll.
I also did not believe that to be true, computer sims prove the Wizards 29.62% number.
Well, 29.63% of the 12s come on the comeout roll, too. And 2s, and 3s, and...
The average passline decision takes 3.375 rolls, and 1/3.375 = .29629. Duh! This simply means that 29.63% of all rolls are comeout rolls for the passline.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Quote: konceptumI always figured that if I had the ability to influence the dice (and I do, with a combination of voodoo, yoga, pilates, and zombie rituals) that I would not try to get a 7, again, ever. I'd much rather influence the dice in such a way as to DECREASE the 7 and INCREASE anything else. Or, if I had to be specific, I'd rather increase the probability of a 6 rolling. I know that dice setters and influencers will talk about being able to roll more 7's during a come out roll, but that just baffles me. I'd rather just roll more 6's. I mean, sure you can bet $100 on the line and roll a 7 and double it. But it seems more powerful to bet $100 on the line, roll a 6, back it up with max odds, and immediately roll another 6. Even if you break down the $100 bet into whatever it would be on the line plus max odds to equal $100, you'll do better than double the money. And, with all that being said, if I could increase the odds of rolling a 4 to above the odds of rolling a 7, I'd definitely go that way instead.
Well, you would be throwing away the advantage that the player already has on the comeout roll. If you had perfect control, of course, your way would make sense, but not even the hucksters that sell "dice-control" seminars claim anything close to that.
By setting both dice so that they rotate, if at all, around the 6/1 axis, the theory is that you reduce the possible outcomes from 36 to 16 (neither 6 nor 1 can show on either die), and 4 of those 16 are sevens, none are 2, 3, 11 or 12. If the dice remain on axis, you have a 25% chance of winning on the comeout roll and no chance of losing. You also have 3 each of 6s and 8s, 2 each of 5s and 9s and 1 each of 4s and 10s. There is no set that can yield more than 3 6s or 8s, anyway. So, here is the distribution you get:
.25 7
.375 6 or 8
.25 5 or 9
.125 4 or 10
Please understand that this reasoning applies only if the dice NEVER LEAVE THAT AXIS.
Once a point is established, there are two sets that (would) yield the best results, depending on the point. If the point is 4 or 10, set one die the same way as on the comeout and the other so it rotates around the 4/3 axis. This yields this theoretical distribution:
.125 7
.125 4
.125 10
.125 5
.125 9
.125 6
.125 8
.0625 11
.0625 3
So, instead of twice as many sevens as 4s or 10s, you get the same number, removing the house advantage on those points and yielding a player advantage of 33% on the odds.
If the point is other than 4 or 10, the 6/1, 5/2 set yields 3 each of 6s and 8s, 2 each of 5s and 9s and just 2 7s.
I'm pretty sure this is (would be, rather) the optimum way to use sets. In WinCraps, you can set up alternate probability matrices representing different degrees of success in keeping the dice on axis. You have to do some calculation yourself, of course. For example, suppose you assume a shooter can keep the dice on axis 10% of the time; so, for each outcome, you have to weight the random probability at .9 and the on-axis probability at .1. For example:
.16666 * .9 = .15
.00 * .1 = .00
------------------
.15
So, for each die, the probability of 6 coming up is reduced from 1/6 to .15, as is the probability of the 1 showing. That results in a pretty small increase in the probability of seven overall, to just 16.752%. At 20% on-axis success, it's increased to 17%. Still, even at 10% efficacy, those sets would produce a small player advantage.
If this stuff really worked, you'd still want to use the player advantage on the comeout for best results.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Quote: DeMangoIf there is any influence and I know a few that do influence, then the thought is, raise the possibilities of a seven on the comeout and lower it on the point cycle. With that in mind, the come bet odds should be off. But I see your point of view.
This is true, since the come bet would be out-of-sync with the passline bet.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Quote: DeMangoWhat you do is to change dice sets. You do not change your delivery. This is based on prior charting of throws, with the results being runthru a dice program to point to a certain set to use.
Charting your throws is pretty meaningless unless you chart a HEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEL of a lot of them. It's much easier to just figure the probabilities.
Quote: DeMangoYou can also turn this around and shoot from the don'ts with a 7 avoidance set, then set for the seven!
But as soon as you seven out, you lose the dice!! Not a good idea!
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Quote: 7crapsThat is a great point to bring up!
My Wincraps sims shows that bankrolls last 20-25% longer (more rolls, with bets being the same) by NOT having place bets working on the come-out roll. I will run a few sims with players A,B and C just to verify.
Anything that keeps you out of action is going to reduce your expected loss and increase your theoretical table time (number of rolls). Having your odds off, however, is the exception, in that there is associated expected loss. The 5-count, "qualifying" a shooter, don't player getting off a shooter who makes a point - all these just reduce exposure.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Quote: goatcabinCharting your throws is pretty meaningless unless you chart a HEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEL of a lot of them. It's much easier to just figure the probabilities.
About 300 rolls per table per position per throw.
But as soon as you seven out, you lose the dice!! Not a good idea!
Cheers,
Alan Shank
So you win your bet, not a good idea? How about a table for one? How about trying to avoid 90% of the gamblers (bad shooters) ? How about YOU thinking outside the box!
Preface this by repeating my past statements that I don't believe dice setting really works but that I do it anyway just for the novelty.Quote: goatcabinBut as soon as you seven out, you lose the dice!! Not a good idea!
As for losing the dice when you shoot from the don't, if a shooter really could control in the manner DeMango suggested, they could just bet blacks/pinks when they have the dice and reds otherwise, so it should work out OK. They would probably look for an uncrowded table, too.
Edit: once again, someone else (DeMango this time) was posting while I was composing redundantly. :-(
Quote: DeMangoSo you win your bet, not a good idea? How about a table for one? How about trying to avoid 90% of the gamblers (bad shooters) ? How about YOU thinking outside the box!
If you play from the right side, you don't have to worry about a table for one, etc.; you just keep the dice!
Cheers,
Alan Shank
