Can Roulette Be Beaten?
Quote: EvenBobI have a friend who wins consistantly playing roulette in Vegas. He doesn't play a mechanical system. He has a strategy that he adjusts according to the situation. This strategy is a complicated, complex mixture of probability, statistics and experience that has all morphed into a laser like intuition on the outside bets. He can't really explain what he does, he says it all comes out sounding like 'Gamblers Fallacy'. He doesn't win every bet, but he never loses a session. Ever. When I'm in Vegas, he lets me piggyback his bets sometimes and I always come away a winner. Why do they say roulette can't be beaten, when my friend and others, I'm sure, are beating it every day.
They say it cannot be beaten because it cannot be beaten unless you find a biased wheel, which is unlikely. There is no difference in "probability or statistics" from one spin or wheel to the next. Experience will tell someone that.
Quote: EvenBobI have a friend who wins consistantly playing roulette in Vegas. He doesn't play a mechanical system. He has a strategy that he adjusts according to the situation. This strategy is a complicated, complex mixture of probability, statistics and experience that has all morphed into a laser like intuition on the outside bets. He can't really explain what he does, he says it all comes out sounding like 'Gamblers Fallacy'. He doesn't win every bet, but he never loses a session. Ever. When I'm in Vegas, he lets me piggyback his bets sometimes and I always come away a winner. Why do they say roulette can't be beaten, when my friend and others, I'm sure, are beating it every day.
Your friend is either a fool or a liar. Maybe both.
And he tells you this even though he knows you will spread the word about it and soon the casino is going to notice whats been happening right under their eyes and darn it all, that golden goose is gonna be gone, but because he is such a great friend he tells you anyway. He never loses a session, but he is the one who keeps track of it. Well, he can probably have good sessions at golf too, if he is the only one keeping the scorecard.Quote: EvenBobI have a friend who wins consistently playing roulette in Vegas.
Quote: FleaStiffHe never loses a session, but he is the one who keeps track of it.q]
I've played with him probably 15 times in the last 3 years and I always win when I piggyback on his bets. Not every bet, but every session. The casino never seems to notice him winning, he never stays very long. He doesn't seem worried about it. He just makes his money and leaves. Other people say he can't do it, what can I say. It seems more than just luck, thats what he says anyway."It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
Quote: ruascottYour friend is either a fool or a liar. Maybe both.
When I play with him, how can he be lying? I don't understand what you mean.
In a way, it isn't. If you knew *all* of the physical properties for each spin, you could figure out where the ball was going to land. This would require knowing the speed of the ball, force behind the ball, weight of the ball, speed of the wheel, etc.
The problem is that you can't and don't know all of those factors (which is the only way to truly know where the ball is going to land). And you have to make your bet well in advance of even estimating it. Hence, the probability model is much more accurate for an average player playing the game.
BTW, the *only* factors that can predict where the ball is going to land is the physical properties of each throw, which are different enough to appear to be random. Statistics can't predict where the ball is going to land on an individual throw. Neither can probability. Neither can intuition. Neither can a combination of all 3.
There must be more to what he's doing, then. He really doesn't talk about it much. He's got to be 67 or 68 now and has been playing BJ and roulette in Vegas for 30 years. Thats all he does for money, I have no idea how much he makes a month. He claims he's met other roulette players in Vegas who do what he does, but not many. He says I could do it if I wanted to practice for a few years. No thanks.
Quote: EvenBob{Statistics can't predict where the ball is going to land on an individual throw. Neither can probability. Neither can intuition. Neither can a combination of all 3.}
There must be more to what he's doing, then. He really doesn't talk about it much. He's got to be 67 or 68 now and has been playing BJ and roulette in Vegas for 30 years. Thats all he does for money, I have no idea how much he makes a month. He claims he's met other roulette players in Vegas who do what he does, but not many. He says I could do it if I wanted to practice for a few years. No thanks.
There is another sure way to win at Roulette, but past-posting will extend your stay in Vegas for several years. Though prison does give you a RFB comp..........
Simple. Observer bias. He is your friend. He wins some. You win some. He loses some. You lose some. You are emotionally involved since its not just your friend its your money! Do you think that is a source of carefully observed statistics. You go get a secret wingman to keep track of several sessions... then see if your impression of "more wins than losses" actually holds true. Just make sure the wingman is not a friend and is not financially involved.Quote: EvenBobWhen I play with him, how can he be lying?
Quote: EvenBob{Statistics can't predict where the ball is going to land on an individual throw. Neither can probability. Neither can intuition. Neither can a combination of all 3.}
There must be more to what he's doing, then. He really doesn't talk about it much. He's got to be 67 or 68 now and has been playing BJ and roulette in Vegas for 30 years. Thats all he does for money, I have no idea how much he makes a month. He claims he's met other roulette players in Vegas who do what he does, but not many. He says I could do it if I wanted to practice for a few years. No thanks.
No offense, but use some common sense and don't be so gullible. 15 times of playing alongside him proves absolutely nothing.
Nothing says "I told you so" like a new Bentley.
Quote: EvenBobI have a friend who wins consistantly playing roulette in Vegas.
I would like to know if he lives in Las Vegas and/or the surrounding area, and if he plays Roulette 8 hours a day, 5 days a week, ie, a full time job.
Quote: konceptumI would like to know if he lives in Las Vegas and/or the surrounding area, and if he plays Roulette 8 hours a day, 5 days a week, ie, a full time job.
He's lived in Vegas since the 70's. He has a certain amount he wants to make every day and quits when he's reached it. Never stays in any one casino for very long. I don't know what the big deal is, so he does this, so what. As long as he lets me piggyback on him when I'm there, who cares how he does it. LOL.
Quote: ruascottNo offense, but use some common sense and don't be so gullible. 15 times of playing alongside him proves absolutely nothing.
I have friends who live in LV and say they've never had a losing year playing video poker, and always end up ahead. They said they play all the time, day after day. I told them they were full of it. They balked.
Turns out they are all on some type of progressives team where they are financed by someone else, and when they lose they don't lose their own money. If they happen to hit the thing then they get paid a small percentage, and they get to keep all the slot club benefits from their cards either way.
Phoney and/or misleading doesn't begin to describe what they claim. I suspect this roulette guy has a comparable motivation to make his claims.
Quote: EvenBobAs long as he lets me piggyback on him when I'm there, who cares how he does it. LOL.
You were okay up to that point...if someone bets and wins often, that's great. The math doesn't support roulette being beatable in the long run but I guess the whole random nature of the spins could fall for someone over time just as well as they can fall against most of us...I'd probably tag along with him, too!
There is one little caveat...I'd make sure I understood what he was doing at least enough to know that it was within all applicable gaming laws. If not, you'd be open to prosecution.
Quote: JerryLoganPhoney and/or misleading doesn't begin to describe what they claim. I suspect this roulette guy has a comparable motivation to make his claims.
I don't think he has any motivation outside of making money. He says he's met a couple of others who do what he does, who knows. He plays and he wins, what can I tell ya. <shrug>
Quote: RonCI'd make sure I understood what he was doing at least enough to know that it was within all applicable gaming laws. If not, you'd be open to prosecution.
For betting and winning? Is that against the law in Vegas now? Are they doing that badly?
Quote: EvenBobFor betting and winning? Is that against the law in Vegas now? Are they doing that badly?
Nope...betting and winning is still just fine. It is cheating that would be a concern. I would want to know just enough about what he was doing to make sure it was legal.
Quote: RonCNope...betting and winning is still just fine. It is cheating that would be a concern. I would want to know just enough about what he was doing to make sure it was legal.
He looks at the marquee and bets. Thats it. Writes nothing down. Maybe he's cheating in his head like they do in BJ, who knows.
Quote: EvenBobHe looks at the marquee and bets. Thats it. Writes nothing down. Maybe he's cheating in his head like they do in BJ, who knows.
That's just it: who knows?
Who knows if you know a guy who claims to win every roulette session? Who knows if he does win every session? Who knows if you're not making things up? Who knows?
If you want a serious discussion, you need to provide some evidence beyond mere claims about some guy you happen to know.
The house edge in double zero roulette is 5.26%. Period. Past rolls have no impact on future rolls. Some games, like BJ or craps, might be beatable by counting, hole-carding, or dice setting. But roulette is just a little ball going around a wheel. The player has no control and no ability to gain additional knowledge prior to the decision point.
Quote: Nareedyou need to provide some evidence beyond mere claims about some guy you happen to know.
Evidence? My whole point was, I always hear roulette can't be beaten and I know somebody who does it. I don't know HOW he does it, he never says. It never occurred to me that I wouldn't be believed. I thought somebody would pop up and say 'Oh yeah, I know somebody like that too.' Guess not. Oh well....
Quote: rdw4potusI'm really confused by this whole discussion.
The house edge in double zero roulette is 5.26%. Period. Past rolls have no impact on future rolls. Some games, like BJ or craps, might be beatable by counting, hole-carding, or dice setting. But roulette is just a little ball going around a wheel. The player has no control and no ability to gain additional knowledge prior to the decision point.
Dice setting is pure BS. No one can control the dice by shooting EXACTLY the same pattern at EXACTLY the same speed to hit EXACTLY the same angle on EXACTLY the same cones at EXACTLY the same spot. I know a pit boss at Bellagio and a casino manager at another property on the Strip, and they both laugh it off and said there's never been anyone 86ed for trying that nonsense. I know there so-called big names out there who claim it's possible and they make money off of it by doing what else, selling books on it. But I've never heard anything more foolish in my life.
Sounds like he's a professional roulette player. Just curious
as to which outside bets are made 2:1, 1:1, does he change
from one to another? Does he start with the minimum bet? At
what profit point does he walk?
Bet you have given some thought to movin' to Vegas to piggyback daily :)
Quote: JerryLoganDice setting is pure BS. No one can control the dice by shooting EXACTLY the same pattern at EXACTLY the same speed to hit EXACTLY the same angle on EXACTLY the same cones at EXACTLY the same spot.q]
There's a huge cult following in roulette that every casino has dealers who can hit certain sections of the wheel at will, anytime they want. They will swear its true and foam at the mouth if you dispute it. The Wizard and others say its absolutely a myth. Who do we believe?"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
Quote: trinityBet you have given some thought to movin' to Vegas to piggyback daily :)
It would be very suspicious to have 2 people making the same bets all the time. I have no desire to live in Vegas, never move to the fun place you love to vacation in, I already made that mistake once in my life.
Quote: EvenBobEvidence? My whole point was, I always hear roulette can't be beaten and I know somebody who does it. I don't know HOW he does it, he never says. It never occurred to me that I wouldn't be believed. I thought somebody would pop up and say 'Oh yeah, I know somebody like that too.' Guess not. Oh well....
Yes, evidence.
I'm sure you've also heard it said nobody lives forever. Well, suppose I told you I know a guy who claims to be seven thousand years old, who witnessed any number of major ancient history events you care to name, and who has met a few other immortals here and there.
Would you believe that?
I don't claim you're lying, but it is a possibility (it's always a possibility).
There are ways to always win at roulette. There's apst posting, altering your bet after the winning number is known. this si cheating and it is illegal.
There are biased wheels. It may even be that all wheels are biased to some degree. But it would take a great deal of observation, plotting every number for thousands of turns, before anyone is able to place a bet. Even then, while there would be a player advantage, you woulnd't always win. most times, yes, but not always. Just as the casino doesn't always win despite having an advantage at every game.
Not too long ago another poster here, Croupier, posted about his experimental attempts at wheel control. I was intrigued and I hope he continues. But even if he can find a way to control the wheel, a player would need to collude with the dealer in order to win, and even then they wouldn't win every time. And again ti would be cheating and illegal.
As far as I know, those are the only known ways to win consistently at roulette (and on is unproven). If you claim there is anotehr one, you ought to be able to provide some evidence for it. At least corroborating testinomy.
Quote: EvenBobI'm with the Wizard on this one!Quote: JerryLoganDice setting is pure BS. No one can control the dice by shooting EXACTLY the same pattern at EXACTLY the same speed to hit EXACTLY the same angle on EXACTLY the same cones at EXACTLY the same spot.q]
There's a huge cult following in roulette that every casino has dealers who can hit certain sections of the wheel at will, anytime they want. They will swear its true and foam at the mouth if you dispute it. The Wizard and others say its absolutely a myth. Who do we believe?There is a flip side to that coin.
Quote: EvenBobEvidence? My whole point was, I always hear roulette can't be beaten and I know somebody who does it. I don't know HOW he does it, he never says. It never occurred to me that I wouldn't be believed. I thought somebody would pop up and say 'Oh yeah, I know somebody like that too.' Guess not. Oh well....
Bob, no one believes you because it BS. Its like me coming on here and saying that I know a guy who wins the lottery everytime he plays it through some wicked comibination of numbers that come spewing out of his mouth on the third sunday of the month. And I know he can do it everytime, because I saw him win, and he even let me play his numbers.
Your whole point is based upon an impossibility. The guy either has you snowed completely, or you are just on here BS'ing. Have you considered that your friend uses some type of Martingale system? In what units does he exactly play?
IF he looses a bet does he double up his next bet? Details, what are the details??
I know a group of guys who made a trip to Las Vegas a number of weekends ago, and absolutely killed at the craps table. They walked away with a ton of money. So much, that the casino offered them a free comp for the following weekend. So they went back, and made a killing again. And a third weekend, and another killing. And a fourth weekend, and another killing. It was about this time that they decided they could quit their day jobs, move to Las Vegas, start gambling larger sums of money, and be happy forever.
And a fifth weekend resulted in a huge loss. And a sixth weekend resulted in a huge loss. And now they no longer think they should quit their day job.
It is not at all inconceivable that a person could get lucky and make a killing at any game, and maybe even do it several times in a row. But there's a huge leap between that and doing the same thing full time as a regular source of income. And it's an even huger leap to think that the person could do it at roulette. Which is all that the people on this forum are telling you.
First of all, if your friend has a system, you should be able to tell us what that system is. Your claim that you don't know how the system works is unbelievable by me, although I won't speak for the other people on this forum. The fact remains that roulette is not a difficult game to play, and it's not a difficult game to bet. All roulette "systems" in existence are fairly easy to understand and easy to explain to others. Thus, if your friend has a system, he would be able to easily explain it to you, and thus you could explain it to us.
My guess is that your friend is looking for wheel biases. By examining the marquee board and watching the spins as well as the croupier, he may indeed be able to find that a particular wheel favors a certain area, and thus makes bets in that manner. Your claim that he doesn't win every single bet, but does come out ahead in the session would lend some credence to that.
Looking for a wheel bias would be difficult and require a lot of research of a particular wheel, but I suppose it's possible. But again, before any of us could lend any credence to anything you state, we'd want to know what your friend's system is.
How can I prove he wins, I have no idea how he does it. Nor do I want to know!
Quote: konceptum
My guess is that your friend is looking for wheel biases. By examining the marquee board and watching the spins as well as the croupier, he may indeed be able to find that a particular wheel favors a certain area, and thus makes bets in that manner. Your claim that he doesn't win every single bet, but does come out ahead in the session would lend some credence to that.
Looking for a wheel bias would be difficult and require a lot of research of a particular wheel, but I suppose it's possible. But again, before any of us could lend any credence to anything you state, we'd want to know what your friend's system is.
I doubt it is wheel bias as he is only making outside bets.
Read my first post, he doesn't play a system. Even if I knew what he did exactly, and I don't, why on earth would I announce it on a public forum? He would kill me and I wouldn't blame him.
Quote: EvenBobHow can I prove he wins, I have no idea how he does it. Nor do I want to know!
Now, that's a lie. No one in his right mind would refuse a goose that lays golden eggs.
BTW if you click on the "QUOTE" button rather than the "REPLY" button, you can quote the portions of post you're responding to. Just keep in mind anything between the [ q ] and [ /q ] commands will wind up in a quote square.
Quote: Nareed
BTW if you click on the "QUOTE" button rather than the "REPLY" button, you can quote the portions of post you're responding to. Just keep in mind anything between the [q] and [/q] commands will wind up in a quote square.
Fixxed with no extra spaces. :+)
Quote: NareedNow, that's a lie. No one in his right mind would refuse
Again, read my first posts. He said it would take a couple years of practice and I said no thanks. Years? get real.
Quote: EvenBobAgain, read my first posts. He said it would take a couple years of practice and I said no thanks. Years? get real.
Two years and financial independence? Can you send him my email address?
Quote: NareedTwo years and financial independence? Can you send him my email address?
I have no intention of spending every day in smelly casinos, how appalling would that be. Pro gambling has never interested me in the least, each to his own I guess. I watch those zipper heads on the poker channels and wonder 'how many books have these guys read since grade school'. No thanks.
Quote: EvenBobI have no intention of spending every day in smelly casinos, how appalling would that be. Pro gambling has never interested me in the least, each to his own I guess. I watch those zipper heads on the poker channels and wonder 'how many books have these guys read since grade school'. No thanks.
You would probably be suprised at how many books they have read. I suggest anyone who is even interested in professional gambling (not that you seriously would do it but wonder what it would take) read "Gambling Wizards." They are all well read and intelligent. Most to all have post-secondary education. All have a desire to keep learning.
An uneducated person is a casino's best friend. Except perhaps for those with a system of beating roulette.......
Quote: JerryLoganDice setting is pure BS. No one can control the dice by shooting EXACTLY the same pattern at EXACTLY the same speed to hit EXACTLY the same angle on EXACTLY the same cones at EXACTLY the same spot. I know a pit boss at Bellagio and a casino manager at another property on the Strip, and they both laugh it off and said there's never been anyone 86ed for trying that nonsense. I know there so-called big names out there who claim it's possible and they make money off of it by doing what else, selling books on it. But I've never heard anything more foolish in my life.
Maybe I don't understand how dice setting works. I thought that the idea isn't to get exactly the same outcome all of the time but rather to get one outcome slightly more frecquently than would otherwise occur. It seems like it wouldn't take much to overcome a 1.4% HA if the number of 7s could be slightly lessened.
Quote: rdw4potusMaybe I don't understand how dice setting works. I thought that the idea isn't to get exactly the same outcome all of the time but rather to get one outcome slightly more frecquently than would otherwise occur. It seems like it wouldn't take much to overcome a 1.4% HA if the number of 7s could be slightly lessened.
It's a generalization of what dice setting is purported to be simply because it's impossible to EVER manipulate the dice in order to re-create a previous throw or throws. By saying "I'll keep from throwing 7's so I can oversome the HA" is ridiculous because there's no way to influence a person's throw in order to be similar to any throws that have come before.
Quote: AZDuffmanYou would probably be suprised at how many books they have read.q]
Or not. Ever listen to the table talk on High Stakes Poker? Its what High School boys talk about when they're sneaking smokes behind the gym. A real brain trust. They're gambling jocks."It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
Certainly the setter's throws are not perfect. Even if they are getting 1 out of 20 rolls perfect, they are reducing that frequency from 1 in 6 to 19 in 120. That makes the game a positive expectation for them. A 6 or 8 goes from a 0.463% HA (per roll) to a .37% player advantage (per roll).
Quote: rdw4potusMaybe I don't understand how dice setting works. I thought that the idea isn't to get exactly the same outcome all of the time but rather to get one outcome slightly more frecquently than would otherwise occur. It seems like it wouldn't take much to overcome a 1.4% HA if the number of 7s could be slightly lessened.
It should be called "dice influencing" not "dice control." Easier to show than describe, but if you minimize how much they are flying around after setting them so combinations of 7 do not show then catch the bottom corner of the table you might be able to change the outcome a little. I have practiced it both in the class I tried as well as at Monte Carlo Nights before the players arrived. I have a few times "caught the corner" just so that it makes me think there is at least some science behind it.
In class I pretty much always used the "Rosebud Method" of throwing them. It took the head instructor, a very experiecnced guy, all of seconds to pick me out doing it. If it took him more than two rolls to pick me out I'd have wondered if he was up to the job-it is that obvious when you do it. The rest of the class, however, mostly never played the game even for fun. It took most of them some time to catch it, though they eventually did. One woman was trying to get me to show the same instructor what I was doing. I didn't have the dice and said I didn't need to use the dice, I could explain it in a sentence. She tried to show him (not well) and I said, "Can players set the dice?"
The official word was you were not supposed to but they seemed more upset it slowed the game down than you might change the odds. Later another student started throwing them the same way, a little too well--he had been watching. If I were to form a team and had his number I'd have called him.
Quote: rdw4potusMaybe I don't understand how dice setting works. I thought that the idea isn't to get exactly the same outcome all of the time but rather to get one outcome slightly more frecquently than would otherwise occur. It seems like it wouldn't take much to overcome a 1.4% HA if the number of 7s could be slightly lessened.
It should be called "dice influencing" not "dice control." Easier to show than describe, but if you minimize how much they are flying around after setting them so combinations of 7 do not show then catch the bottom corner of the table you might be able to change the outcome a little. I have practiced it both in the class I tried as well as at Monte Carlo Nights before the players arrived. I have a few times "caught the corner" just so that it makes me think there is at least some science behind it.
In class I pretty much always used the "Rosebud Method" of throwing them. It took the head instructor, a very experiecnced guy, all of seconds to pick me out doing it. If it took him more than two rolls to pick me out I'd have wondered if he was up to the job-it is that obvious when you do it. The rest of the class, however, mostly never played the game even for fun. It took most of them some time to catch it, though they eventually did. One woman was trying to get me to show the same instructor what I was doing. I didn't have the dice and said I didn't need to use the dice, I could explain it in a sentence. She tried to show him (not well) and I said, "Can players set the dice?"
The official word was you were not supposed to but they seemed more upset it slowed the game down than you might change the odds. Later another student started throwing them the same way, a little too well--he had been watching. If I were to form a team and had his number I'd have called him.
