A) You're forgetting the buck you'll lose for every come out roll that's not a 12

B) A 12 will come up, on average, every 36 rolls.

Now let's take those same 36 come out rolls, but you're betting $1 on the 6's on each come out roll. Now, there are 35 times that you lose $1, and 1 time that you win $30. It's easy to see that you have lost money.

You are correct in that if you get double 6's at least once every 30 come out rolls, then you will break even. Unfortunately, the chance of rolling double 6's is 1 in 36, thus making it a losing proposition.

Quote:nyyankee0101I have been at a Craps table for five hours each of the last four days and have analyzed that a 12 comes on a Come Out roll once in about every 21 Come Out rolls. This easily covers the 30-1. I know this sampling is not nearly enough for a long-term hypothesis but that's what I have so far and I am somewhat new to the game! This is just something I noticed and thought about while playing and hoped someone could explain it to me. Thanks!

Your sampling isn't nearly enough, because the 12 will come out once every 36 rolls. You are actually giving the house a greater advantage by putting the dollar on the 12 on the Come Out Roll. Think about it like this: You are fretting over the very small edge that's already on the Pass and Don't Pass (~1.37%) by losing a dollar on 35 of every 36 Come Out Rolls. Then on the roll that you do get the 12, you are still losing half of your combined Pass/Don't Pass. You may say, "Well, what's a dollar?" But the house edge on $10 Pass Line bet is a lot less than a dollar! Don't take a very good bet and think you can make it better by adding a bad bet!

I agree. Its better to just roll the dice and win or lose than to try to nickle and dime Lady Luck all night long. Oh sure, you can always put your entire bankroll on one bet, but that kinda smarts if it loses. So stretch things out a bit and get some free drinks but don't hedge. The PRICE of gambling is the house edge. Pay the price and have fun.Quote:cclub79Don't take a very good bet and think you can make it better by adding a bad bet!

Quote:nyyankee0101Yes A 12 will come up about 36 rolls, but that doesn't account for 36 Come Out rolls. What I'm saying is let the rolls with an established point do the work of increasing your odds and get paid betting the Come Out. I just think that the odds on betting the Horn 12 are different when only betting it on the Come Out.

The dice don't know it's a Come Out Roll or not, so the odds aren't different. It's a one roll bet, so the horrible odds are the same no matter when you place it, whether it's a hedge for you or not. I understand you aren't losing a dollar every roll, but on every Come Out that's a 2/3/7/11, you are losing it and automatically rebetting it. That's 11 out of every 36 Come Outs, or almost 1/3 of them. Trust us, adding a high house edge bet as a hedge is only INCREASING the amount you lose...it's not helping you.

Quote:nyyankee0101Yes A 12 will come up about 36 rolls, but that doesn't account for 36 Come Out rolls. What I'm saying is let the rolls with an established point do the work of increasing your odds and get paid betting the Come Out. I just think that the odds on betting the Horn 12 are different when only betting it on the Come Out.

Uhh...no, no, no. Why would the odds be different on the 12 on a come out roll compared with any other roll? You getting your mind stuck in what's known as Gambler's Fallacy.

The odds on ANY roll, come-out or not, being a 12 is 1 out of 36. But you only get paid 30-1. Some anectdotal evidence that you observed at a craps table does not change the odds. This is a BAD method, and will just make you lose money faster in the LONG RUN.

Now in the short run, it could work great. See a trip report of mine from a few weeks ago, when my buddy hit something like 5 or 6 randomly placed $5 12s in an evening.