ssho88
ssho88
Joined: Oct 16, 2011
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June 23rd, 2015 at 10:31:50 AM permalink
A casino offers this game to me :-

1) Baccarat, Min bet = $100, Max bet = $10000

2) Player buy chips worth 60K with cash 60K and casino will give chips worth 30K for FREE. Total chips = 90K.

3) You CAN'T cash out the chips until your chips total amount worth MORE than 90K, the amount you can cash out = current chips amount - 90K. You can cash out as many times as you like. For example, after few rounds of betting, your total chips is worth 125K, you can cash out 35K ONLY, after cashing out, your remaining chips is 90K, and you can continue to play. You will lose all your chips eventually. Please note that you may have chance to cash out many times before lose all 90K.

My betting strategy, bet on BANKER only, cash out once your total chips more than 90K :-
a) Bet 3k per round, simulation shows that the EV = $2970, no of rounds = 853 before lose all.
b) Bet 6k per round, simulation shows that the EV = $14430, no of rounds = 246 before lose all.
c) Bet 10k per round, simulation shows that the EV = $19750, no of rounds = 97 before lose all.

Anyone/Eliot would like to check my figure?
MaxPen
MaxPen
Joined: Feb 4, 2015
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June 23rd, 2015 at 12:11:12 PM permalink
Did you hear about the blackjack game with .75% advantage? It come with bonuses as well.
bigfoot66
bigfoot66
Joined: Feb 5, 2010
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June 23rd, 2015 at 12:16:47 PM permalink
I think that if you bet your whole bankroll and cash out after every win then your EV approaches +50%
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charliepatrick
charliepatrick
Joined: Jun 17, 2011
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June 23rd, 2015 at 12:49:33 PM permalink
The obvious strategy is to bet banker and cash out every time you go back over 90k. It seems reasonable to try and get larger chunks out as fast as possible before House Edge eats at your bank. It does seem that making bets of (edit) 5k would make a profit, but lower ones wouldn't.
Hands Dealt
Bet Size
Rounds
Winnings
Take Outs
Average
Hands per game
80 591 812
$90,000
35 964 992
$3,159,743,899,500
36 956 069
$87,856
2.241
80 591 679
$10,000
829 362
$66,264,174,577
7 749 302
$79,898
97.173
80 594 929
$5,000
234 434
$16,956,905,770
4 047 924
$72,331
343.785
80 591 223
$2,000
46 792
$2,530,502,736
1 527 781
$54,080
1722.329
80 589 799
$1,000
15 754
$563,196,512
682 328
$35,749
5115.513
Edit : I had a small bug in my program which was had the player/banker reversed. As you can see I now get close to the 19k profit. I also changed it to stop when the bank went below $100, but before that it would bet all the bank when lower than the "betsize".
teliot
teliot
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
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June 23rd, 2015 at 1:06:12 PM permalink
Quote: ssho88

A casino offers this game to me :-

1) Baccarat, Min bet = $100, Max bet = $10000

2) Player buy chips worth 60K with cash 60K and casino will give chips worth 30K for FREE. Total chips = 90K.

3) You CAN'T cash out the chips until your chips total amount worth MORE than 90K, the amount you can cash out = current chips amount - 90K. You can cash out as many times as you like. For example, after few rounds of betting, your total chips is worth 125K, you can cash out 35K ONLY, after cashing out, your remaining chips is 90K, and you can continue to play. You will lose all your chips eventually. Please note that you may have chance to cash out many times before lose all 90K.

My betting strategy, bet on BANKER only, cash out once your total chips more than 90K :-
a) Bet 3k per round, simulation shows that the EV = $2970, no of rounds = 853 before lose all.
b) Bet 6k per round, simulation shows that the EV = $14430, no of rounds = 246 before lose all.
c) Bet 10k per round, simulation shows that the EV = $19750, no of rounds = 97 before lose all.

Anyone/Eliot would like to check my figure?

I don't understand what you've written. Can you cash out *everything* once you are over $90k? or just the surplus? In other words, what is the relevance of the $30k in free chips?

Thinking about it, I suppose the $30k just moves the lower boundary further away, giving you extra chances to cash out. Okay. You (or someone on your team) are a strong programmer. You are probably right. I would also do this by simulation. [Edit. see next post.]
Poetry website: www.totallydisconnected.com
teliot
teliot
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
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June 23rd, 2015 at 2:12:35 PM permalink
Quote: ssho88

A casino offers this game to me :-
c) Bet 10k per round, simulation shows that the EV = $19750, no of rounds = 97 before lose all.
Anyone/Eliot would like to check my figure?

I simulated 100M players betting $10k per round. I got 97.16 rounds, on average, and $19,820 in profit, on average.
Poetry website: www.totallydisconnected.com
ssho88
ssho88
Joined: Oct 16, 2011
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June 23rd, 2015 at 2:33:26 PM permalink
Quote: teliot

I don't understand what you've written. Can you cash out *everything* once you are over $90k? or just the surplus? In other words, what is the relevance of the $30k in free chips?

Thinking about it, I suppose the $30k just moves the lower boundary further away, giving you extra chances to cash out. Okay. You (or someone on your team) are a strong programmer. You are probably right. I would also do this by simulation.



You are correct, you only can cash out the surplus and the 30k give you extra chances to cash out.
ssho88
ssho88
Joined: Oct 16, 2011
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June 23rd, 2015 at 2:35:21 PM permalink
Quote: teliot

I simulated 100M players betting $10k per round. I got 97.16 rounds, on average, and $19,820 in profit, on average.



Thanks for your verification. My team mate did it :=)
teliot
teliot
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
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June 23rd, 2015 at 2:42:39 PM permalink
Quote: ssho88

Thanks for your verification. My team mate did it :=)

Someone will be out of a job soon, I fear. Probably some nice lady with 2 kids, who really needs her job. Or maybe the pressure was on some low-level marketing team to come up with a promotion for their high rollers in a highly competitive market. Who knows, it could even be the director of marketing. But this will be bad news for some nice people, regardless of how incompetent they may be. Just so you know, there is often collateral damage, not just monetary damage.

On the other hand, if not you, then someone else.
Poetry website: www.totallydisconnected.com
ssho88
ssho88
Joined: Oct 16, 2011
  • Threads: 47
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June 23rd, 2015 at 2:50:03 PM permalink
Quote: teliot

Someone will be out of a job soon, I fear. Probably some nice lady with 2 kids, who really needs her job. Or maybe the pressure was on some low-level marketing team to come up with a promotion for their high rollers in a highly competitive market. Who knows, it could even be the director of marketing. But this will be bad news for some nice people, regardless of how incompetent they may be. Just so you know, there is often collateral damage, not just monetary damage.



Do you think that casinos care about million of gamblers out there ? There are also many gamblers with more than 3 kids .You want us to care about casino staffs ?

We are beating their own game within rules set by them.

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