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odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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Thanks for this post from:
Mission146aceside
July 13th, 2021 at 4:47:48 AM permalink
Quote: aceside

Can you explain a little more about your advanced strategy of “you out kick the board or not”? 




You're giving me too much dap, btw, to say this is 'my' strategy, but thanks. But I think you said you had only studied the Wizard's Simple Strategy, and he stops at 21 outs consideration, while the strategy for when you can't outkick the board is an 18+ consideration for the most part. 


My particular way of looking at the strategy involves recognizing the cards. Before I was fleshing it out, practicing myself recently, I thought the 'can't outkick' would be hard to learn. It is more complicated in one sense, but as I've practiced I've come to think of it as actually easy to play correctly. I am not being corrected by the trainer game, the challenge only coming down to recognizing the condition of 'can't outkick the board'


Let's look at what I've got so far. Gladly will I correct any errors anyone can find most happily, thanks in advance. Another post will follow with some examples. The table at the bottom I find really does work well.


Can't Outkick


The following is for when your kicker can't outkick the board. The situation is more complicated because a single card can't trump all other outs in some cases. 


Situation 1. If the board doesn't have a pair or better, "don't play the board" per LVA strategy card. 


Most of the other situations below use the 18+ rule. 


Can't Outkick Situation 2. One pair, 11 outs, and there are 3 cards that represent kicker situations. These 3 need to be Ace through Jack, any combination, otherwise there are 2 cards that the dealer could have that will add 8 more outs = 19. If the pair consists of AA, KK, QQ, or JJ, succession to A through 10, any combination, is good. 


Can't Outkick Situation 3. Board has Two Pair representing 7 outs. Q is good, succession is good. 


Can't Outkick Situation 4. Board has Trips representing 7 outs, with two cards that represent kicker situations. These two need to be Ace through J, any combo again, to keep the dealer from having 3 more possible outs. If the Trips consist of AAA, KKK, QQQ, or JJJ, succession to A through 10, any combination, is good. 


Can't Outkick Situation 5. Board has Two Pair representing 4 outs! The one other card is lower again than the pairs. This time the 2 pair need to contain a pair of Jacks or higher, otherwise dealer can have Ace through Jack and 16 more outs. Look for this situation and this time I finally agree to just count the outs! If 18+, fold. 


Can't Outkick Situation 6. Board has 4 OAK, 3 outs. 10-card is good, succession is good. This seems to be a 21+ outs situation. 


>>>


       

       

       

       

       

               
You Can Not Outkick the Board Action Indicated
1. The board doesn't have a pair or better    "don't play the board" 
2. Board Has One Pair, 11 outs Combination of 3: Ace thru Jack, any comb, succession to A-10, any comb
3. Board has Two Pair representing 7 outs Q is good, succession is good
4. Board has Trips and 7 outs Combination of 2: Ace thru J, any comb, succession to A-10, any comb
5. Board has Two Pair representing 4 outs!  Need one pair JJ+, count the outs! If 18+, fold.
6. Board has 4 OAK, 3 outs 10-card is good, succession is good.
Last edited by: odiousgambit on Jul 13, 2021
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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Thanks for this post from:
Mission146aceside
July 13th, 2021 at 5:46:45 AM permalink
I'd suggest checking these things out using the Wizard Calculator below. I indicate a suit but you can skip suits to follow along, just make sure you rainbow what you put in


Your cards: an awful unsuited 2c, 3d that dies for pairs/straights/flushes/anything

Board: 8h, 8s, Ac, Kd, Jh ... that is a one pair board and the dealer board represents 11 outs, the table situation #2. [edited per Mission's point] .............. The Table [and Calc.] says to bet

Change the Jh to 10h, note that you don't have to start over, just click on the Jh
Now the Table says 10s make it a 'fold' situation, and the calc confirms

So how do we get succession to A-10?

Leave it as is but change the 8,8 to a pair of Queens. Get it?

I'd play with the calc for each and just keep checking it out. Let me know if you need more examples. Thank you Wizard for the great tools!

https://wizardofodds.com/games/ultimate-texas-hold-em/calculator/
Last edited by: odiousgambit on Jul 13, 2021
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Mission146
Mission146
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July 13th, 2021 at 5:57:29 AM permalink
Fifteen outs in the post above, you forgot the Queens, but same thing.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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Thanks for this post from:
Mission146
July 13th, 2021 at 6:06:26 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

Fifteen outs in the post above, you forgot the Queens, but same thing.



the inside straight with one gap raises it's ugly head again!

in theory that gives the dealer too many outs, so it's either an exception, or I'm confused see downthread
Last edited by: odiousgambit on Jul 13, 2021
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Mission146
Mission146
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Thanks for this post from:
odiousgambitThisIsMyJam
July 13th, 2021 at 6:08:10 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

the inside straight with one gap raises it's ugly head again!

in theory that gives the dealer too many outs, so it's either an exception, or I'm confused



It has nothing to do with the Q-10 straight possibility. The Queen would best the jack on the board and you would lose whether or not the dealer has a straight.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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July 13th, 2021 at 6:49:30 AM permalink
OK, I think I have this now

Q,Q,A,K,10 makes 2 queens, 3 aces, 3 kings, 3 tens, are 11 outs on the board BUT now there are no more outs *on the board*. So you add the Jacks as possible outs to trump the 10, or possible outs to make an inside straight, but there aren't 8 Jacks!

The board represents 11 outs in this system. The jacks make 15, less than 18+, and the decision is to bet 1x as the calculator confirms.

Thanks very much for the input, let's hope you don't show I have this wrong.

A board *itself* cannot have 19 outs either btw, I just realized, not in this system. It is not unreasonable in some other ways to make a simple strategy, to consider a 19 out board possible. In this system the 21+ or 18+ comes from finding cards still in the deck until dealer cards are revealed. I think this can indeed be from an inside straight, but the board is the board [edits]

[edits]
Last edited by: odiousgambit on Jul 13, 2021
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Mission146
Mission146
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July 13th, 2021 at 7:09:50 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

OK, I think I have this now

Q,Q,A,K,10 makes 2 queens, 3 aces, 3 kings, 3 tens, are 11 outs on the board BUT now there are no more outs *on the board*. So you add the Jacks as possible outs to trump the 10, or possible outs to make an inside straight, but there aren't 8 Jacks!

So you are wrong to say the board has 15 outs. The board has 11. The jacks make 15, less than 18+, and the decision is to bet 1x as the calculator confirms.

I told you it can be a wilderness. Thanks very much for the input, let's hope you don't show I have this wrong.

A board *itself* cannot have 19 outs either btw, I just realized. The 21+ or 18+ comes from finding cards still in the deck until dealer cards are revealed. I think this can indeed be from an inside straight, but the board is the board

[edits]



I was referring to your 88AKJ hand, the Queen beats the Jack.

Two Eights-Trips
Three Aces, Kings, Jacks (Nine Cards)-Two Pair
Four Queens-Queen outkicks Jack

4+9+2 = 15

Doesn’t change that it’s a call.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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Thanks for this post from:
Mission146
July 13th, 2021 at 7:17:45 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

I was referring to your 88AKJ hand, the Queen beats the Jack.

Keep em coming, I appreciate it.

for initial outs there are 2 eights, 3 aces, 3 kings, 3 jacks = 11 outs. When you use the strategy, btw, and see there are 11 outs in the table, this is what is counted, only, for these purposes

The Queen still in the deck represents 4 more outs that could be in the dealers 2 cards = 15, less than 18+

Check it out with the calculator, you bet 1x here
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
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Thanks for this post from:
Mission146
July 13th, 2021 at 7:29:21 AM permalink
I can't tell if we agree or not, you continued to edit while I posted

btw I *am* going to have to add an explanation. It is reasonable to sometimes consider an unpaired, rainbow board with an inside straight possibility a 19 out board. It has to be mentioned, I can see. I am thinking I should just mention it as creating an exception and that with the strategy represented, you never have a board with more than 15 outs. etc.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
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Thanks for this post from:
odiousgambit
July 13th, 2021 at 8:00:23 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

Keep em coming, I appreciate it.

for initial outs there are 2 eights, 3 aces, 3 kings, 3 jacks = 11 outs. When you use the strategy, btw, and see there are 11 outs in the table, this is what is counted, only, for these purposes

The Queen still in the deck represents 4 more outs that could be in the dealers 2 cards = 15, less than 18+

Check it out with the calculator, you bet 1x here



I know that. I was just correcting the number of outs. My post said, "Doesn't change that it's a call."

I should probably always use, "Play," instead of saying Raise and Call. I might be the only one who refers to the 1x Play as a, "Call," so that's my fault.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219

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