UTH, the 21 Outs

Quote: unJon

Mission, I’m beginning to understand why you aren’t very good at poker. :-)

Please enlighten me. I am being 100% genuine in saying I'd really like to know! How should top pair not have just shoved post-flop?

Quote: Mission146

In Poker parlance, "Blocked," just means that I have a card in my hand that could potentially help another player, but in the case of UTH, it's the dealer. Therefore, when I see a three-flush on the board and am concerned that the dealer might be wired in that suit, I either have a blocker or I don't.

got it

If you want to check out some marginal situations, against an unpaired rainbow board, hole cards K,2 and Q,2 tend to be very marginal and we're often told by the Wizard trainer to fold if the dealer can scrounge up about anything extra.

I've added the below to my blog, the link is https://wizardofvegas.com/member/odiousgambit/blog/#post2310

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No Succession Super Simple 18-21 UTH

The discussion made it occur to me that there are certain things to be gleaned from the strategy where you use Succession, that you can use even if you are someone who has a great comfort level with counting the outs and want nothing to do with Succession. I have especially found that it is quickly picked up for the common situations where you 'play the board', and on this last statement I'd say if you don't agree, you're hard-headed.


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For the 'Can Outkick', 21+ outs:


Get this sequence down: K,Q,J,J


Then get this one down: rainbow, pair, 2 pair, trips .......... Which represents unpaired rainbow board, board with 1 pair, board w/2 pairs, board w/trips, resp.


Absent cards on the board that outrank, the K,Q,J,J cards, or better, that respectively go along with the other are instant-decision bettable. In all other situations including the presence of outranking cards, count the Total Dealer Outs


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For the 'Can't Outkick' 'play the board', 18+ outs:


Get this down, A-J ............... where A-J means Ace thru Jack in any combination


Then this: Board with one pair and Board with Trips


Absent those same cards being present in the pair or trips, the cards that are not part of the pair or the trips need to be that A-J, otherwise fold. With the presence of A-J in the pair or the trips, count the outs, fold if 18+ . Any other scenario on the board, count the outs also


However you might note that the bettable cards never include anything more expansive than A-10 no matter what as long as we are talking about these two cases only.


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There are exceptions but this is a simple strategy. I've tested very thoroughly with the Wizard calculator but will happily stand corrected if you can show it

Quote: Mission146

Please enlighten me. I am being 100% genuine in saying I'd really like to know! How should top pair not have just shoved post-flop?

Most importantly, you didn’t give effective stack and pot sizes so it’s an unanswerable question. I play much differently when we have a 200+ BB stacks vs 50BB stacks.

Second, I almost never give a 100% answer in poker. The answer is almost always a mixed Nash equilibrium.

Third, KQ sucks. Not as bad as K9. But still makes a lot of tempting second best hands.

Quote: unJon

Most importantly, you didn’t give effective stack and pot sizes so it’s an unanswerable question. I play much differently when we have a 200+ BB stacks vs 50BB stacks.

Second, I almost never give a 100% answer in poker. The answer is almost always a mixed Nash equilibrium.

Third, KQ sucks. Not as bad as K9. But still makes a lot of tempting second best hands.

I guess that's a fair point on the stack and pot sizes...and the fact that it doesn't change how I would play the hand is probably an indictment. Top pair, king kicker, is going to be a post-flop shove every time on a pot that I was the one to raise pre-flop on a rainbow board when the opponent checks. I'm almost always ahead in the hand here, so I want all my chips in there as soon as we can possibly do that please!

I guess it would have to be the small blind who called preflop for this to be the case, but it's a shove anyway. It's a shove if I don't have good position.

Quote: Mission146

I'm almost always ahead in the hand here, so I want all my chips in there as soon as we can possibly do that please!

quote truncated.

The right question isn’t if you are “almost always ahead” but if you are ahead of your opponents calling range. And I get that you will respond that you want your opponent to fold and are happy taking down the pot as is.

Quote: unJon

quote truncated.

The right question isn’t if you are “almost always ahead” but if you are ahead of your opponents calling range. And I get that you will respond that you want your opponent to fold and are happy taking down the pot as is.

I am NOT playing you at poker!

And let’s get back on topic. Here’s an interesting example.



19 out hand. So raise is the play. It’s marginal. Note that a 3 and 5 gives the dealer a wheel (though player has a blocker).

What happens if we turn that River card into a spade to also put a three flush on the board?



Now this 19 out hand is a fold! So is the three flush worth 2 outs? No but the combination of the gapped straight and flush is. Look what happens if we change that Ace into a King to remove the straight.



Back to a raise.

All of this is super marginal on the EV side. But interesting to me.

I couldn’t think of a 20 out board to test the flush without the straight impact.

Quote: unJon

All of this is super marginal on the EV side. But interesting to me.

me too. Sometimes I can't figure out why it's a fold. But all marginal, as you say.

Quote: odiousgambit

me too. Sometimes I can't figure out why it's a fold. But all marginal, as you say.

For now I’m sticking to 21 outs with three flushes and three straights counting as an out each. I’ll add the 18 outs if playing board to that. Thanks!

Maybe I’ll screw around later on whether up and down straights are worth more than an out.