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odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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Mission146
July 22nd, 2021 at 7:14:33 AM permalink
Quote: unJon

When is it 18 outs to count vs 21?

This is missing completely from the Wizard Simple Strategy, which he warns you about it being simple after all.

Mission, too, should take note [coudn't resist, sorry] that for the cases where you "play the board" the rule is not 21 outs but 18 outs. An exception seems to be a 4 OAK on the board where as far as I can tell, it's 21 outs again.

I learned this from the LVA strategy card, and confirmed it with the Wizard calculator
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: ďThanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!Ē She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Mission146
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ThisIsMyJam
July 22nd, 2021 at 7:34:20 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

You evidently are able to count the outs without even realizing you are counting them. I'm serious. It's a 3 step process for newbies. Step one, you note the outs on the initial board. Step 2, note cards missing from the board that are 4-card outs. Step 3, count. OK, even I soon was melding step one and two together, but evidently all 3 steps meld together as one function for you. I never got there.



Thank you for the intended compliment and I agree. It should be a prerequisite for anyone who intends to play this game in a live casino. If a person does not instantly recognize the number of dealer one card outs, then they should simply never play this game. They should practice on the WoO game until they DO instantly know the number of dealer one card outs. I'm still terrible at this game, most people are worse than I am, thus most people should never play it absent something that really swings the overall expectation into the profitable.

Quote:

The Wizard's Simple Strategy skips over it too, though I guess he'd defend himself and say he doesn't tell you to skip inside straights with one gap, he just doesn't mention them. The LVA strategy card says to dismiss 'all' 4-card straights at the outset when you just have the kicker decision. I looked into that, and can't exactly remember why that makes sense, but it does for simple strategy. Your ease with recognizing them makes you a little blind I think.



Someone who does not recognize these, instantly, as dealer outs should never play ANY five-card hand poker based game, much less this one.

Quote:

The one time you have to count dealer outs with this one is so rare you can play the Wizard trainer game for I don't know how long, days maybe, and not run into it fully qualified with JJ+ as part of the pairs. But, OK, I agree you need to know how to count outs, but you won't need to. [Does it make sense to makes a distinction between 'do need' and 'won't need'? ha ha]



Memorizing a chart for one specific game in order to play marginally less badly helps a person play a game that they should not be playing in the first place less badly. Learning how to recognize and count outs will help a player play many games less badly and actually forces them to, God forbid, think. I am thinking. You are thinking because you are coming up with a chart. Thinking is good. Making decisions using a chart without understanding why they are the right decisions is bad.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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Mission146ThisIsMyJam
July 22nd, 2021 at 7:36:59 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

Trial 2: Five minutes, 47 hands, zero errors.

I checked it out and go at half that speed, greatly assisted by learning the automatic play I advocate. I checked it out and with my satellite internet service it can't go faster than about 15 per minute, and that's when you click on 'raise' instantly, right or wrong.

Dude, you are fast.

[snips]

Quote:

For most people, it would be like playing Magnus Carlsen in chess---he will beat you quickly, decisively and effortlessly. They will have learned nothing from him beating them. Hopeless endeavor all around. They will not even learn how to be better at chess, even if they analyze the game, because they won't ever be able to figure out why Magnus Carlsen beat them if he is playing as well as he can.

You are absolutely correct about this. Every time I would play a really good player, I learned nothing. Even studying the game afterward didn't really help much.

re: the rest of your post. Well, you are making the point about it being better not playing at all, I agree. It's also better financially for me that I quit hunting, fishing, going to movies, fine dining, the list goes on and on. OK I will concede that most people who aren't gamblers think "especially gambling" . But I feel you are constantly criticizing that we are trying to beat a -EV game. You are saying we are stupid. Now you have me going!! Sorry. I usually delete stuff like that after I write it but maybe I need to show I'm human too, ha ha

As for claiming you 'suck' at the game, come on, clearly you do not. As for you not being able to beat a -EV game either, yeah we know that.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: ďThanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!Ē She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Mission146
Mission146
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July 22nd, 2021 at 7:44:38 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

I checked it out and go at half that speed, greatly assisted by learning the automatic play I advocate. I checked it out and with my satellite internet service it can't go faster than about 15 per minute, and that's when you click on 'raise' instantly, right or wrong.

Dude, you are fast.



Thank you for the compliment. Please note that I am still terrible at this game, so if a person cannot play perfectly faster than this, then they should not play this game at all. I will make a mistake (usually second decision point) if I play enough hands. Probably 200-300.

If you asked me to play this game in a casino, I would say no. I am not comfortable that I play this game well enough to justify sitting down at a table with no element that provides me an advantage. We have a mutual friend who has asked me to play this game several times, even offered to, "Put me up," on it...and you can ask him---I have declined every time on the grounds that I do not know this game well enough to play it competently.

Quote:

[snips]

You are absolutely correct about this. Every time I would play a really good player, I learned nothing. Even studying the game afterward didn't really help much.

re: the rest of your post. Well, you are making the point about it being better not playing at all, I agree. It's also better financially for me that I quit hunting, fishing, going to movies, fine dining, the list goes on and on. OK I will concede that most people who aren't gamblers think "especially gambling" . But I feel you are constantly criticizing that we are trying to beat a -EV game. You are saying we are stupid. Now you have me going!! Sorry. I usually delete stuff like that after I write it but maybe I need to show I'm human too, ha ha

As for claiming you 'suck' at the game, come on, clearly you do not. As for you not being able to beat a -EV game either, yeah we know that.



I am awful at the game. It is a negative expectation game. Anything less than absolute perfection is total failure when you can only lose in the first place. Play that is sub-optimal is unacceptable, absent some other factor that lends a decisive advantage.

It's hard enough to win when you have an advantage, much more when you are supposed to lose. Play enough hands, and mathematically speaking, you reach a point where winning has become impossible---not that very many people will actually play that many.

I'm not saying anyone is stupid; I am saying that playing this game is stupid.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
unJon
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Mission146odiousgambit
July 22nd, 2021 at 7:56:13 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

This is missing completely from the Wizard Simple Strategy, which he warns you about it being simple after all.

Mission, too, should take note [coudn't resist, sorry] that for the cases where you "play the board" the rule is not 21 outs but 18 outs. An exception seems to be a 4 OAK on the board where as far as I can tell, it's 21 outs again.

I learned this from the LVA strategy card, and confirmed it with the Wizard calculator



Got it. Thank you.

Iíve always just played Wizard Easy strategy when I play. And as youíll note from my earlier post in this thread, I donít play it perfectly as I missed the 4card straight.

My one tweak, which I have no idea if itís correct is that I add a one count to the outs if thereís a three flush or three straight on the board. I think the chance of the dealer having two of the right suited cards, for example (3.6%) is close enough to the chance he had a particular out (4.4%).

(Math corrected)
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
Mission146
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unJonodiousgambit
July 22nd, 2021 at 8:16:17 AM permalink
Quote: unJon



Got it. Thank you.

Iíve always just played Wizard Easy strategy when I play. And as youíll note from my earlier post in this thread, I donít play it perfectly as I missed the 4card straight.

My one tweak, which I have no idea if itís correct is that I add a one count to the outs if thereís a three flush or three straight on the board. I think the chance of the dealer having two of the right suited cards, for example (3.6%) is higher than the chance he had a particular out (2.2%).



Flush Blocker:

nCr(8,2)*nCr(37,0)/nCr(45,2) = 0.0282828282828283

No Flush Blocker:

nCr(9,2)*nCr(36,0)/nCr(45,2) = 0.0363636363636364

In either case on the flush, this is fine.

The straights are similar, but a little less. The reason why is because the unblocked straight is eight cards and the blocked straight is seven. You can do the same function because all possible combinations of these cards will have the dealer beating you with either a straight---or other combinations are an inside pair. The one card blocked straight with only one two-card way to make a straight is only seven cards for two card outs:

nCr(7,2)*nCr(38,0)/nCr(45,2) = 0.0212121212121212

A little under, but you probably still want to call this a full out if you are going to make a rule out of it, so I agree.

It's a very good tweak.

I'm actually glad I did this because it helps me improve my thinking on the one hand that had me actually actively thinking. I was wondering about the 79 two-card straights (one block) that the dealer could have as well as the 66 and 77 pairs the dealer could have that I had blocked, but just the 7-9 two-card straight was enough to make it a fold at that stage of the process, so thank you.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
odiousgambit
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Mission146
July 22nd, 2021 at 8:42:36 AM permalink
Quote: unJon

Quote: odiousgambit

This is missing completely from the Wizard Simple Strategy, which he warns you about it being simple after all.

Mission, too, should take note [coudn't resist, sorry] that for the cases where you "play the board" the rule is not 21 outs but 18 outs. An exception seems to be a 4 OAK on the board where as far as I can tell, it's 21 outs again.

I learned this from the LVA strategy card, and confirmed it with the Wizard calculator


My one tweak, which I have no idea if itís correct is that I add a one count to the outs if thereís a three flush or three straight on the board. I think the chance of the dealer having two of the right suited cards, for example (3.6%) is close enough to the chance he had a particular out (4.4%).

(Math corrected)

The math I can't do, but the consensus seems to be to not count as an out anything that requires two dealer cards, both of his cards that is, to complete. I have noticed that a 3 card straight flush is picked up as a full out by the Wizard calculator, though... perhaps this is not true "every time"

I can't follow the last post by Mission
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: ďThanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!Ē She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
unJon
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Mission146
July 22nd, 2021 at 8:45:08 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

Quote: unJon

Quote: odiousgambit

This is missing completely from the Wizard Simple Strategy, which he warns you about it being simple after all.

Mission, too, should take note [coudn't resist, sorry] that for the cases where you "play the board" the rule is not 21 outs but 18 outs. An exception seems to be a 4 OAK on the board where as far as I can tell, it's 21 outs again.

I learned this from the LVA strategy card, and confirmed it with the Wizard calculator


My one tweak, which I have no idea if itís correct is that I add a one count to the outs if thereís a three flush or three straight on the board. I think the chance of the dealer having two of the right suited cards, for example (3.6%) is close enough to the chance he had a particular out (4.4%).

(Math corrected)

The math I can't do, but the consensus seems to be to not count as an out anything that requires two dealer cards, both of his cards that is, to complete. I have noticed that a 3 card straight flush is picked up as a full out by the Wizard calculator, though... perhaps this is not true about "every time"



If I have some time later, Iíll run an example through the calculator and see what happens. What you want is a 20 out rainbow board compared to a 20 board with a three flush. Can then do same with up and down three straight.

Remember you donít need a full out to make the best decision change between 20 and 21 outs!
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
Mission146
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odiousgambit
July 22nd, 2021 at 9:18:00 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

The math I can't do, but the consensus seems to be to not count as an out anything that requires two dealer cards, both of his cards that is, to complete. I have noticed that a 3 card straight flush is picked up as a full out by the Wizard calculator, though... perhaps this is not true "every time"

I can't follow the last post by Mission



In Poker parlance, "Blocked," just means that I have a card in my hand that could potentially help another player, but in the case of UTH, it's the dealer. Therefore, when I see a three-flush on the board and am concerned that the dealer might be wired in that suit, I either have a blocker or I don't. If I have one of that suit in my hand, then that means I have the dealer partially blocked as I have one of the cards that could otherwise give the dealer a two card flush.

If I don't have the dealer partially blocked, then I don't have any of the three-card community suit in my hand.

When it comes to, "Blocking pairs," if you have two cards that are not the same thing, then you are always partially blocking two inside pairs---either that or you have at least one pair using something on the board and your other card partially blocking an inside pair.

This sometimes comes into the equation in certain Texas Hold 'Em hands, probably most frequently with flushes and high cards. Take a community board like:

Qs Jd 4h 6h 9h

And imagine that I have QhKs, and for some reason I am not all-in already (which I should be) and my opponent has acted first and made a big bet:

Ignoring that the thought process might include an opponent's previous behavior, I might think:

Okay, did he catch the flush? I've got some two-card flushes blocked here with my Queen, so that's good. Is this a gutshot or backdoor straight situation? What did he do after the flop? K-10 maybe and then he catches the backdoor low out? I don't know, because I have a King blocked. You'd think a wired pair plays more aggressively here, especially aces, and again, I've got wired kings partially blocked on this one. I mean, a gutshot...are you really calling anything with 10/8 after this flop...is this guy really calling the preflop raise with 10-8, maybe suited, I guess, but that seems really unlikely.

Could be J-9, but do you really cede Jacks post-flop without testing the waters with a lead bet? You're only calling the preflop raise with J-9 suited, I would think.

So, he's maybe beating me with a Flush or he's basically just dead-calling an open-ended straight draw Flop and Turn? I don't think you would just be calling any kind of trips here, either, unless the nine GAVE him the trips. Check-Call, Check-Call and then a nine and he leads...it's either a bluff or it's a straight, flush or trip nines. If it's a straight, then it almost has to be K-10 and I have a king blocked. I have a flush card blocked.

Is there any value in shoving on this? No. There's nothing that calls a shove where I don't lose, so this is very much call or fold.

It's probably the flush, or he's repping a flush. I should have shoved the Turn after he called the flop. I'm going to get beat by a flush. I call.


Except, this wouldn't have happened because he would have checked after the flop and I would have shoved all-in, but you know how it is.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
unJon
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Mission146
July 22nd, 2021 at 9:27:42 AM permalink
Mission, Iím beginning to understand why you arenít very good at poker. :-)
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.

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