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odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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Mission146
July 22nd, 2021 at 6:08:36 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

I just did a five minute test and did 41 hands in five minutes on WoO.

stay tuned [later]


Quote:

Of course, there's some variance on that.  I had 14, "Insta-Raise," hands, so I might get more or less than that if I did it again.  Actually, if the 14 Insta-Raise hands, four of them were in a row which---while not extremely unusual, is notable.  14 Insta-Raise hands is roughly expected in that sample size as it's expected to happen something like 37-39% of the time...I forget exactly what.  


I don't know if I was trying to play as fast as possible, because I imagine I'd make mistakes if I did.  The hand that took me the most time was a pair of eights on the board with K J 10 because I had to think about the push, but decided the dealer had too many straights.  


Board: 8, 8, K, J, 10


So, if you count outs for this hand, you have:


8's-2
K's-3
J's-3
10's-3
A's-4
Q's-4

OK, as comparison, with the no-count strategy, with 6,7 for your hole cards, it's a 'can't outkick' table.  For one pair on the board, the cards that are un-paired have to be A-J, any combo, so this is a fold. 


Oh, one thing that could be unclear with it, and it catches me too with not enough practice because it's too rare. Succession check for out-ranking cards only applies to the pair, so the presence of those high cards in the cards that are unpaired is not relevant for succession rules to kick in. 


Quote:

With that, the out count  gets you to nineteen.

It's an 18+ for folds situation. You can stop right there.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Mission146
Mission146
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ThisIsMyJam
July 22nd, 2021 at 6:24:06 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

stay tuned [later]


OK, as comparison, with the no-count strategy, with 6,7 for your hole cards, it's a 'can't outkick' table.  For one pair on the board, the cards that are un-paired have to be A-J, any combo, so this is a fold. 


Oh, one thing that could be unclear with it, and it catches me too with not enough practice because it's too rare. Succession check for out-ranking cards only applies to the pair, so the presence of those high cards in the cards that are unpaired is not relevant for succession rules to kick in. 


It's an 18+ for folds situation. You can stop right there.



That all may be the case, but the words in the chart are meaningless for me because I would have to compare my hand to the chart. I can just do the math. The math is faster.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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Mission146
July 22nd, 2021 at 6:31:30 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

That all may be the case, but the words in the chart are meaningless for me because I would have to compare my hand to the chart. I can just do the math. The math is faster.

I really do disagree in the cases where you play the board. It becomes instant decision. Skip all the rest of it but learn the cases where A-J is what you look for. Don't look at the chart, it's too easy to memorize

Also, it seems the 18+ change from 21+ is a hole in your game, sir
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Mission146
Mission146
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July 22nd, 2021 at 6:44:57 AM permalink
Trial 2: Five minutes, 47 hands, zero errors.

This one was interesting because I had three consecutive Insta-Raises on three separate occasions, so that made it a bit faster. I had either seventeen or eighteen Insta-Raises in total, which is roughly as expected. The only specific sequence I remember is 99, K5 (off) and AK (off).

I might have been a little slower, except none of the, "Last decision," points were at all difficult in this sequence, except for one out count that was needed to decide whether or not to play for the push. It wasn't a difficult scenario (straightforward 21 count), except I did have to stop for that. You should also keep in mind the maximum rate that the game can even play is taking up some of this time.

For all of that, I finished down seventeen base bets. Isn't that fun? Well, I guess that's what perfect play on a -EV game will get you, isn't it?

It's important to keep in mind that I am NOT EVEN GOOD at this game, not that it would matter if I was, because it's a negative expectation game anyway. I figure every 200-300 hands I will likely make a mistake at the second decision point, which means I am AWFUL at this game.

Most people, taking their time, will play this game worse than I do playing as fast as I am capable---and I am AWFUL at this game---so what does that tell you? They should NOT worry about any strategy chart because they should not play this game in the first place unless there is something that is the case outside of the cards on the table and a mostly competent dealer.

This is a negative expectation game. What? Are they going to lose better than other people lose? Losing is losing.

For most people, it would be like playing Magnus Carlsen in chess---he will beat you quickly, decisively and effortlessly. They will have learned nothing from him beating them. Hopeless endeavor all around. They will not even learn how to be better at chess, even if they analyze the game, because they won't ever be able to figure out why Magnus Carlsen beat them if he is playing as well as he can.

It's easy to figure out why one should lose at UTH---there's a House Edge. If everything in the context of the game is done properly, a player can ONLY have a losing expectation. In the long run, every single player WILL lose. One and all. Thus, they should not play in the first place unless there is some factor that changes that fact.

People should NOT play games to LOSE. They should play to WIN. Losing is failure. If a player is playing this game at all, absent some other factor, they have already failed to play the game optimally by the mere act of playing it in the first place.

And...they will probably be worse at losing than I am...and I already completely suck at this game.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
Mission146
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July 22nd, 2021 at 6:48:21 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

I really do disagree in the cases where you play the board. It becomes instant decision. Skip all the rest of it but learn the cases where A-J is what you look for. Don't look at the chart, it's too easy to memorize

Also, it seems the 18+ change from 21+ is a hole in your game, sir



My ass, it is. I played that set of hands perfectly. Zero errors. I'm not saying I would never make an error (quite the opposite, actually, which is why nobody should ever play this game), but I can't play a particular set of hands perfectly better. I played that set of hands perfectly. How can I do better than perfect?
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
unJon
unJon
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Mission146
July 22nd, 2021 at 6:50:27 AM permalink
When is it 18 outs to count vs 21?
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
Mission146
Mission146
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July 22nd, 2021 at 6:54:52 AM permalink
Quote: unJon

When is it 18 outs to count vs 21?



Apparently, a hole in my game.

Who needs to be able to instantly know the rough probability on a dealer having a particular inside pair given the number of unknown cards, comparing that to the number of pairs that the player's hand does not have at all blocked, multiplying, converting that to outs, adding that to the current number of outs that are easy to determine...figure out the other possible two-card dealer outs, estimate a rough probability on that, convert that to the dealer out card equivalent, add to the 20.3, realize that the result is safely over 21 and know to fold?

Within three seconds.

Serious hole in my game, there.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
Mission146
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July 22nd, 2021 at 7:01:06 AM permalink
And, again, I play UTH terribly. Thus, if you are not better than this, you should not play it, either.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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Mission146
July 22nd, 2021 at 7:05:40 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

My ass, it is. I played that set of hands perfectly. Zero errors. I'm not saying I would never make an error (quite the opposite, actually, which is why nobody should ever play this game), but I can't play a particular set of hands perfectly better. I played that set of hands perfectly. How can I do better than perfect?

Well I've been finding out new ways to insult people lately and I just found out what gets to Mission!! Sorry!

But you gave an example where you were pondering 21 outs when you only needed to get to 19. I can believe you got to 19 instantly but the rest of that post *had* to have you taking time. Maybe you didn't take the time while you were playing and only mused about it afterwards, but I missed it if you said that.

will wait for cooler heads before addressing Mission's other points, and in the meantime answer Unjon
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Mission146
Mission146
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July 22nd, 2021 at 7:10:32 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

Quote: Mission146

My ass, it is. I played that set of hands perfectly. Zero errors. I'm not saying I would never make an error (quite the opposite, actually, which is why nobody should ever play this game), but I can't play a particular set of hands perfectly better. I played that set of hands perfectly. How can I do better than perfect?

Well I've been finding out new ways to insult people lately and I just found out what gets to Mission!! Sorry!

But you gave an example where you were pondering 21 outs when you only needed to get to 19. I can believe you got to 19 instantly but the rest of that post *had* to have you taking time. Maybe you didn't take the time while you were playing and only mused about it afterwards, but I missed it if you said that.

will wait for cooler heads before addressing Mission's other points, and in the meantime answer Unjon



Well, yeah. It's like me saying 2 + 2 = 4 and someone saying I didn't do that right.

Anyway, apology accepted.

Yes, it did take time. That's why it slowed me down and I played faster the second set of hands...plus more Insta-Raises. It took me about three seconds to figure out that calling/folding decision. Also, I had to silence my phone at one point in the first run, so I forgot about that.

Also, I couldn't help looking at the timer the first run, so the second run I put it where I'd have to turn fully around to see it.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219

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