Can anyone tell me what the house advantage is when using a max bet blind stratgy in UTP with no trips bet.
I'm assuming you're talking about Ultimate Texas Hold-Em, which we commonly abbreviate as UTH.
I'm interested in the result, because I've tried playing a second hand like this a couple times, though my casino only requires 3x bet on it, not 4x.
However, you asked about 4x, so I used the Wizard's UTH page to amend the bet results on his 52 different outcomes, and grouped them by who won and what the optimal strategy says the bet should be. The revised house edge is in the lower right.
Pretty bad news. However, the Wizard uses Element of Risk rather than House Edge to more accurately describe and compare this game to others. You're always betting 6 units, so 52.9422/6 is 8.8237%. Not as bad. But still really high IMO.
The first grouping is the same, since the large bet in optimal strategy is always 4x. The second grouping is where you get most of any positive result blind betting; as you can see the positive outweighs the negative. However, it's downhill from there, and especially disastrous to bet an extra 4 units on a hand that should have been folded. There is probably a certain amount of those hands, small but likely significant, that you would win despite the strategy guidance to fold them, so your actual results will probably be a bit better than the numbers show here. However, house edge is calculated using optimal strategy, so a precise number of those hands that SHOULD be folded, but weren't because of the blind strategy, and STILL won, is not available at this time. At least not by me; I'm not a math bozy. :)
EDIT: Just in case anybody besides me is interested, playing blind with a 3x max bet is worse: 58.9835% HE, or EOR of 11.7967%.
For comparison, optimal strategy is 2.185% HE, EOR is .526 (again from the WoO page).
Thank You and Yes I meant UTH newbie mistake. Your analysis makes sense, but I am having a hard time wrapping my head around where the house gains an advantage. I know there has to be a house advantage or the game would not be in the casino. I am just trying to understand exactly where they get a edge if push is no action and we both have the same random hold cards.
The house makes their money 2 ways. The first is the blind bet; it is a negative expectation bet that balances against your opportunity to bet 4x on your good hands. They take your blind bet when you lose head-to-head, but they only pay the blind bet when you have a straight or better, which only happens about 8% of the time when you win.
The other place they make money, and it's most of what they make, is from player mistakes. Most players are not aggressive enough to bet their good hands, which is where you make all your money. So they're paying less than they should on your good hands, but taking all the same chips on your bad ones, no matter how well you play. People won't bet Ace+nothing until the end, when any ace should be bet 4x automatically, for instance. The only way to make money on this game is:
1. Learn the bet 4x-2x-1x-fold strategy, either the simple one from the Wizard, or the complex one from Grosjean, which the Wizard recommends.
2. Learn the Wizard's kicker formula for whether to bet or fold at the end by counting your outs.
3. Have a little bit of positive variance on a very volatile game to overcome the .52 EOR using those strategy tips.
I think you meant the blind bet .They don't pay the blind unless straight or better and they don't pay the ante when the dealer does not qualify.
You're right, hunter; I'll correct that, thanks. Brain-o writing it.
I'm having a little déjà vu.
That was a VERY busy week for me, miplet; I totally forgot there was a thread discussing this, so I'm really glad you posted the link to it or had done the calculations.
I'm also glad for my own sake I ran the numbers for the 3x blind bet; since it breaks even worse, I probably won't do it again. Though I might on occasion to change the dealer's hand; it seems to help with that sometimes. :)
I do have a question, though; how can you assume anything about a hand that should have been folded but you blind bet it? Those could include player wins or loses, dealer qualifies or doesn't, pushes when the board plays, and pushes on copy hands whether qualifying or not. Or maybe that's what you corrected, and I'm not following your train of thought?