maumelle
maumelle
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April 21st, 2015 at 2:15:46 PM permalink
Can anyone tell me what the house advantage is when using a max bet blind stratgy in UTH with no trips bet.
Thanks
beachbumbabs
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April 21st, 2015 at 4:43:44 PM permalink
Quote: maumelle

Can anyone tell me what the house advantage is when using a max bet blind stratgy in UTP with no trips bet.
Thanks



I'm assuming you're talking about Ultimate Texas Hold-Em, which we commonly abbreviate as UTH.

I'm interested in the result, because I've tried playing a second hand like this a couple times, though my casino only requires 3x bet on it, not 4x.

However, you asked about 4x, so I used the Wizard's UTH page to amend the bet results on his 52 different outcomes, and grouped them by who won and what the optimal strategy says the bet should be. The revised house edge is in the lower right.



Pretty bad news. However, the Wizard uses Element of Risk rather than House Edge to more accurately describe and compare this game to others. You're always betting 6 units, so 52.9422/6 is 8.8237%. Not as bad. But still really high IMO.

The first grouping is the same, since the large bet in optimal strategy is always 4x. The second grouping is where you get most of any positive result blind betting; as you can see the positive outweighs the negative. However, it's downhill from there, and especially disastrous to bet an extra 4 units on a hand that should have been folded. There is probably a certain amount of those hands, small but likely significant, that you would win despite the strategy guidance to fold them, so your actual results will probably be a bit better than the numbers show here. However, house edge is calculated using optimal strategy, so a precise number of those hands that SHOULD be folded, but weren't because of the blind strategy, and STILL won, is not available at this time. At least not by me; I'm not a math bozy. :)

EDIT: Just in case anybody besides me is interested, playing blind with a 3x max bet is worse: 58.9835% HE, or EOR of 11.7967%.

For comparison, optimal strategy is 2.185% HE, EOR is .526 (again from the WoO page).
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
maumelle
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April 21st, 2015 at 5:23:08 PM permalink
Thank You and Yes I meant UTH newbie mistake. Your analysis makes sense, but I am having a hard time wrapping my head around where the house gains an advantage. I know there has to be a house advantage or the game would not be in the casino. I am just trying to understand exactly where they get a edge if push is no action and we both have the same random hold cards.
Thanks Again
beachbumbabs
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April 21st, 2015 at 5:34:01 PM permalink
Quote: maumelle

Thank You and Yes I meant UTH newbie mistake. Your analysis makes sense, but I am having a hard time wrapping my head around where the house gains an advantage. I know there has to be a house advantage or the game would not be in the casino. I am just trying to understand exactly where they get a edge if push is no action and we both have the same random hold cards.
Thanks Again



The house makes their money 2 ways. The first is the blind bet; it is a negative expectation bet that balances against your opportunity to bet 4x on your good hands. They take your blind bet when you lose head-to-head, but they only pay the blind bet when you have a straight or better, which only happens about 8% of the time when you win.

The other place they make money, and it's most of what they make, is from player mistakes. Most players are not aggressive enough to bet their good hands, which is where you make all your money. So they're paying less than they should on your good hands, but taking all the same chips on your bad ones, no matter how well you play. People won't bet Ace+nothing until the end, when any ace should be bet 4x automatically, for instance. The only way to make money on this game is:

1. Learn the bet 4x-2x-1x-fold strategy, either the simple one from the Wizard, or the complex one from Grosjean, which the Wizard recommends.

2. Learn the Wizard's kicker formula for whether to bet or fold at the end by counting your outs.

3. Have a little bit of positive variance on a very volatile game to overcome the .52 EOR using those strategy tips.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
Hunterhill
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April 21st, 2015 at 5:47:03 PM permalink
I think you meant the blind bet .They don't pay the blind unless straight or better and they don't pay the ante when the dealer does not qualify.
The mountain is tall but grass grows on top of the mountain.
beachbumbabs
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April 21st, 2015 at 5:47:59 PM permalink
Quote: Hunterhill

I think you meant the blind bet .They don't pay the blind unless straight or better and they don't pay the ante when the dealer does not qualify.



You're right, hunter; I'll correct that, thanks. Brain-o writing it.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
Hunterhill
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April 21st, 2015 at 5:48:47 PM permalink
The way many players play they would be better off betting 4× blind.
The mountain is tall but grass grows on top of the mountain.
maumelle
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April 21st, 2015 at 6:11:52 PM permalink
Thanks it now makes sense
miplet
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April 21st, 2015 at 6:19:07 PM permalink
I'm having a little déjà vu.
“Man Babes” #AxelFabulous
beachbumbabs
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April 21st, 2015 at 6:29:14 PM permalink
Quote: miplet

I'm having a little déjà vu.



That was a VERY busy week for me, miplet; I totally forgot there was a thread discussing this, so I'm really glad you posted the link to it or had done the calculations.

I'm also glad for my own sake I ran the numbers for the 3x blind bet; since it breaks even worse, I probably won't do it again. Though I might on occasion to change the dealer's hand; it seems to help with that sometimes. :)

I do have a question, though; how can you assume anything about a hand that should have been folded but you blind bet it? Those could include player wins or loses, dealer qualifies or doesn't, pushes when the board plays, and pushes on copy hands whether qualifying or not. Or maybe that's what you corrected, and I'm not following your train of thought?

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/poker/15506-house-edge-on-playing-a-blind-hand-on-ultimate-texas-holdem/#post281805
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
miplet
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April 21st, 2015 at 6:44:52 PM permalink
I have a spreadsheet somewhere. I'll find it sometime tomorrow.
“Man Babes” #AxelFabulous
miplet
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April 22nd, 2015 at 11:17:16 AM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

I do have a question, though; how can you assume anything about a hand that should have been folded but you blind bet it? Those could include player wins or loses, dealer qualifies or doesn't, pushes when the board plays, and pushes on copy hands whether qualifying or not. Or maybe that's what you corrected, and I'm not following your train of thought?

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/poker/15506-house-edge-on-playing-a-blind-hand-on-ultimate-texas-holdem/#post281805


I couldn't find my spreadsheet, so I made a new one. All I did was break down the should have been folded hands in to wins, pushes,and losses. In reality, they could be:
Win with quads, dealer qualifies (15)
Win trips or less, dealer qualifies (5)
Win trips or less, dealer does not qualify (4)
Push (0)
Lose, dealer does not qualify (-5)
Lose, dealer qualifies (-6)

If we assume no quads and the dealer always qualified, the player EV is -0.4076007602 (it doesn't matte if the player always bet 4 or 3 times, the EV is the same)
http://miplet.net/uth/ has 2 spreadsheets. uthblind.xlsx is for playing blind. uthcheck.xlsx is just this post in a spreadsheet.
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JohnnyComet
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April 22nd, 2015 at 11:40:13 AM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs


The other place they make money, and it's most of what they make, is from player mistakes. Most players are not aggressive enough to bet their good hands, which is where you make all your money. So they're paying less than they should on your good hands, but taking all the same chips on your bad ones, no matter how well you play. People won't bet Ace+nothing until the end, when any ace should be bet 4x automatically, for instance. .



Slightly off topic, but it seems a lot of the Strip properties (was there last week) have raised their UTH minimums to scare off 3/4x bets. I couldn't believe the $25 minimums...
Deucekies
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April 22nd, 2015 at 6:18:29 PM permalink
Quote: JohnnyComet

Slightly off topic, but it seems a lot of the Strip properties (was there last week) have raised their UTH minimums to scare off 3/4x bets. I couldn't believe the $25 minimums...



Is that really why? I just figured there were enough players with big money that wanted to play it.
Casinos are not your friends, they want your money. But so does Disneyland. And there is no chance in hell that you will go to Disneyland and come back with more money than you went with. - AxelWolf and Mickeycrimm
JohnnyComet
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April 23rd, 2015 at 8:10:03 AM permalink
I can't speak to their strategy, but one of the dealers mentioned it as a reason. There are enough $100 Blackjack tables around that the dealer might have just been guessing.
teddys
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April 29th, 2015 at 4:00:40 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

1. Learn the bet 4x-2x-1x-fold strategy, either the simple one from the Wizard, or the complex one from Grosjean, which the Wizard recommends.

2. Learn the Wizard's kicker formula for whether to bet or fold at the end by counting your outs.

3. Have a little bit of positive variance on a very volatile game to overcome the .52 EOR using those strategy tips.



4. Bet on other players' play bets when they allow you to. :)
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
beachbumbabs
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April 29th, 2015 at 4:09:28 PM permalink
Quote: teddys

4. Bet on other players' play bets when they allow you to. :)



Wasn't even thinking about that. If the house would let me and I was playing with someone who wouldn't bet their aces and pairs, I'd 4bet them every time and let the other person pay me at the point they would have bet, split it that way when it wins. Good idea; no clue where they'd let me do that.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
Ibeatyouraces
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April 29th, 2015 at 4:15:18 PM permalink
I have a lady that lets me cover her 4x bets. She gets any portion where she'd normally bet.
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
beachbumbabs
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April 29th, 2015 at 4:40:22 PM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

I have a lady that lets me cover her 4x bets. She gets any portion where she'd normally bet.



Lucky you! That has to be incredibly +EV. You're not even risking the ante/blind. Wow.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
Ibeatyouraces
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April 29th, 2015 at 4:43:18 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

Lucky you! That has to be incredibly +EV. You're not even risking the ante/blind. Wow.


If you ever become a regular player and befriend others that are regulars, it's not hard. As long as you have the chips or cash in hand and are trustworthy.
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
miplet
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April 29th, 2015 at 6:04:26 PM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

If you ever become a regular player and befriend others that are regulars, it's not hard. As long as you have the chips or cash in hand and are trustworthy.


Heck, I do this with my mom. For some reason she doesn't like betting Q9 off suit. Q9 might not be a good example, but it is my mother after all.
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Commish
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September 9th, 2015 at 8:32:08 PM permalink
For the life of me I cannot figure out why anyone would bet this game blind. Your big advantage is to bet more when you have 2 good cards. If you find yourself betting blind and turn over 2,3 quod will be very disappointed. While it is true that any two cards can win, higher cards will win more often.
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