jugs
jugs
Joined: Mar 31, 2015
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 7
March 31st, 2015 at 1:45:42 AM permalink
Hi All, nice to meet everyone!

I have a question regarding the probablilty of the player Vs the banker in baccarat during different parts of the shoe. I know overall that the banker bet has a slightly greater chance of winning compared to the player long term wise, but during mid-shoe or towards the end of the shoe, is the probability the same or is it statistically higher for banker to win towards end of the shoe? Or is the probability the same throughout the entire 6-deck game for banker or player?

I am no good at maths and hope someone can help me out here!

thanks in advance.
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
Joined: Jun 22, 2011
  • Threads: 87
  • Posts: 3719
March 31st, 2015 at 6:20:30 AM permalink
You aren't the first person to ask this. I looked into this through simulation, and could not detect any difference in the probabilities (or at least not enough of a one to overcome the house advantage for either player or banker) between the beginning of the shoe and the end of the shoe - or at any other point in the shoe, for that matter.

Here are the results of 150 million 8-deck shoes. Each row is for how many cards into the shoe the hand started. (Note that it is impossible for a hand to start 1, 2, 3, or 7 cards into a shoe, which is why those rows are missing.) The first two percent columns are for player wins and banker wins if you include ties; the last two are for player wins and banker wins if you ignore ties.
For example, from the start of a shoe, there were 44.6237% player wins and 45.8626% banker wins (and 100 - (44.6237 + 45.8626 = 9.5137% ties); ignoring the ties, 49.3154% of the hands were player wins, and 50.6846% were banker wins.


Cards dealtPlayerBankerPlayer (no ties)Banker(no ties)
044.6237%45.8626%49.3154%50.6846%
444.6208%45.8554%49.3178%50.6822%
544.6185%45.8685%49.3093%50.6907%
644.6167%45.8592%49.3134%50.6866%
844.6476%45.8523%49.3344%50.6656%
944.6307%45.8604%49.3206%50.6794%
1044.6191%45.8668%49.3105%50.6895%
1144.6116%45.8730%49.3030%50.6970%
1244.6334%45.8496%49.3279%50.6721%
1344.6367%45.8555%49.3265%50.6735%
1444.6159%45.8589%49.3130%50.6870%
1544.6143%45.8600%49.3116%50.6884%
1644.6271%45.8618%49.3178%50.6822%
1744.6219%45.8653%49.3130%50.6870%
1844.6325%45.8480%49.3283%50.6717%
1944.6368%45.8534%49.3278%50.6722%
2044.6157%45.8635%49.3104%50.6896%
2144.6362%45.8470%49.3309%50.6691%
2244.6193%45.8607%49.3140%50.6860%
2344.6314%45.8573%49.3226%50.6774%
2444.6194%45.8657%49.3113%50.6887%
2544.6211%45.8588%49.3160%50.6840%
2644.6194%45.8678%49.3102%50.6898%
2744.6384%45.8483%49.3314%50.6686%
2844.6183%45.8545%49.3168%50.6832%
2944.6351%45.8508%49.3282%50.6718%
3044.6180%45.8634%49.3118%50.6882%
3144.6334%45.8515%49.3269%50.6731%
3244.6187%45.8678%49.3098%50.6902%
3344.6097%45.8768%49.2998%50.7002%
3444.6265%45.8616%49.3175%50.6825%
3544.6285%45.8509%49.3245%50.6755%
3644.6292%45.8539%49.3232%50.6768%
3744.6232%45.8659%49.3133%50.6867%
3844.6181%45.8680%49.3093%50.6907%
3944.6187%45.8616%49.3132%50.6868%
4044.6122%45.8659%49.3072%50.6928%
4144.6180%45.8654%49.3107%50.6893%
4244.6247%45.8485%49.3236%50.6764%
4344.6163%45.8677%49.3085%50.6915%
4444.6243%45.8614%49.3164%50.6836%
4544.6181%45.8711%49.3077%50.6923%
4644.6270%45.8541%49.3219%50.6781%
4744.6230%45.8535%49.3200%50.6800%
4844.6247%45.8578%49.3186%50.6814%
4944.6301%45.8533%49.3241%50.6759%
5044.6203%45.8586%49.3157%50.6843%
5144.6293%45.8596%49.3201%50.6799%
5244.6330%45.8501%49.3275%50.6725%
5344.6016%45.8762%49.2956%50.7044%
5444.6270%45.8558%49.3210%50.6790%
5544.6355%45.8419%49.3333%50.6667%
5644.6097%45.8760%49.3003%50.6997%
5744.6235%45.8575%49.3181%50.6819%
5844.6256%45.8615%49.3170%50.6830%
5944.6250%45.8521%49.3219%50.6781%
6044.6429%45.8430%49.3369%50.6631%
6144.6267%45.8559%49.3208%50.6792%
6244.6230%45.8610%49.3159%50.6841%
6344.6234%45.8591%49.3172%50.6828%
6444.6252%45.8604%49.3174%50.6826%
6544.6375%45.8438%49.3334%50.6666%
6644.6200%45.8618%49.3138%50.6862%
6744.6157%45.8737%49.3049%50.6951%
6844.6389%45.8506%49.3305%50.6695%
6944.6191%45.8537%49.3177%50.6823%
7044.6355%45.8506%49.3286%50.6714%
7144.6217%45.8628%49.3142%50.6858%
7244.6224%45.8599%49.3161%50.6839%
7344.6140%45.8737%49.3039%50.6961%
7444.6369%45.8571%49.3258%50.6742%
7544.6070%45.8631%49.3058%50.6942%
7644.6350%45.8458%49.3309%50.6691%
7744.6211%45.8760%49.3067%50.6933%
7844.6215%45.8615%49.3148%50.6852%
7944.6319%45.8574%49.3229%50.6771%
8044.6228%45.8553%49.3189%50.6811%
8144.6237%45.8556%49.3192%50.6808%
8244.6429%45.8423%49.3372%50.6628%
8344.6549%45.8381%49.3462%50.6538%
8444.6227%45.8655%49.3133%50.6867%
8544.6347%45.8570%49.3246%50.6754%
8644.6122%45.8795%49.2997%50.7003%
8744.6251%45.8616%49.3167%50.6833%
8844.6224%45.8639%49.3140%50.6860%
8944.6233%45.8598%49.3167%50.6833%
9044.6373%45.8488%49.3306%50.6694%
9144.6116%45.8726%49.3032%50.6968%
9244.6120%45.8718%49.3039%50.6961%
9344.6239%45.8589%49.3175%50.6825%
9444.6211%45.8652%49.3126%50.6874%
9544.6516%45.8384%49.3443%50.6557%
9644.6283%45.8563%49.3214%50.6786%
9744.6067%45.8661%49.3040%50.6960%
9844.6219%45.8634%49.3140%50.6860%
9944.6240%45.8598%49.3171%50.6829%
10044.6239%45.8677%49.3128%50.6872%
10144.6389%45.8435%49.3343%50.6657%
10244.6046%45.8719%49.2997%50.7003%
10344.6222%45.8626%49.3146%50.6854%
10444.6270%45.8625%49.3173%50.6827%
10544.6347%45.8510%49.3279%50.6721%
10644.6309%45.8519%49.3253%50.6747%
10744.6218%45.8626%49.3144%50.6856%
10844.6138%45.8639%49.3091%50.6909%
10944.6372%45.8413%49.3346%50.6654%
11044.6477%45.8512%49.3351%50.6649%
11144.6325%45.8543%49.3249%50.6751%
11244.6327%45.8547%49.3248%50.6752%
11344.6213%45.8605%49.3152%50.6848%
11444.6180%45.8603%49.3135%50.6865%
11544.6281%45.8428%49.3287%50.6713%
11644.6228%45.8591%49.3168%50.6832%
11744.6260%45.8574%49.3195%50.6805%
11844.6094%45.8779%49.2991%50.7009%
11944.6234%45.8622%49.3155%50.6845%
12044.6072%45.8774%49.2981%50.7019%
12144.6211%45.8497%49.3210%50.6790%
12244.6413%45.8447%49.3350%50.6650%
12344.6238%45.8625%49.3155%50.6845%
12444.6236%45.8640%49.3146%50.6854%
12544.6222%45.8611%49.3154%50.6846%
12644.6222%45.8555%49.3184%50.6816%
12744.6186%45.8633%49.3122%50.6878%
12844.6250%45.8589%49.3182%50.6818%
12944.6323%45.8547%49.3246%50.6754%
13044.6136%45.8699%49.3057%50.6943%
13144.6325%45.8575%49.3231%50.6769%
13244.6177%45.8677%49.3093%50.6907%
13344.6192%45.8571%49.3159%50.6841%
13444.6143%45.8595%49.3119%50.6881%
13544.6228%45.8630%49.3147%50.6853%
13644.6311%45.8629%49.3194%50.6806%
13744.6254%45.8507%49.3229%50.6771%
13844.6367%45.8423%49.3338%50.6662%
13944.6238%45.8565%49.3189%50.6811%
14044.6204%45.8555%49.3174%50.6826%
14144.6372%45.8514%49.3291%50.6709%
14244.6268%45.8615%49.3178%50.6822%
14344.6243%45.8599%49.3172%50.6828%
14444.6234%45.8698%49.3113%50.6887%
14544.6254%45.8554%49.3203%50.6797%
14644.6312%45.8486%49.3272%50.6728%
14744.6285%45.8452%49.3276%50.6724%
14844.6175%45.8697%49.3080%50.6920%
14944.6234%45.8613%49.3160%50.6840%
15044.6331%45.8465%49.3295%50.6705%
15144.6233%45.8585%49.3174%50.6826%
15244.6296%45.8603%49.3200%50.6800%
15344.6270%45.8615%49.3179%50.6821%
15444.6454%45.8416%49.3390%50.6610%
15544.6181%45.8644%49.3113%50.6887%
15644.6402%45.8462%49.3336%50.6664%
15744.6249%45.8622%49.3163%50.6837%
15844.6215%45.8565%49.3175%50.6825%
15944.6260%45.8617%49.3172%50.6828%
16044.6252%45.8564%49.3196%50.6804%
16144.6160%45.8722%49.3059%50.6941%
16244.6224%45.8602%49.3160%50.6840%
16344.6222%45.8525%49.3201%50.6799%
16444.6216%45.8538%49.3191%50.6809%
16544.6300%45.8668%49.3167%50.6833%
16644.6169%45.8662%49.3096%50.6904%
16744.6222%45.8673%49.3121%50.6879%
16844.6319%45.8534%49.3250%50.6750%
16944.6435%45.8420%49.3378%50.6622%
17044.6322%45.8551%49.3242%50.6758%
17144.6227%45.8550%49.3190%50.6810%
17244.6226%45.8594%49.3165%50.6835%
17344.6339%45.8501%49.3279%50.6721%
17444.6228%45.8627%49.3149%50.6851%
17544.6347%45.8471%49.3300%50.6700%
17644.6374%45.8443%49.3331%50.6669%
17744.6333%45.8504%49.3275%50.6725%
17844.6476%45.8456%49.3381%50.6619%
17944.6202%45.8592%49.3153%50.6847%
18044.6010%45.8737%49.2966%50.7034%
18144.6413%45.8434%49.3358%50.6642%
18244.6252%45.8639%49.3155%50.6845%
18344.6323%45.8552%49.3243%50.6757%
18444.6341%45.8598%49.3228%50.6772%
18544.6258%45.8582%49.3190%50.6810%
18644.6026%45.8762%49.2962%50.7038%
18744.6330%45.8571%49.3236%50.6764%
18844.6292%45.8526%49.3239%50.6761%
18944.6065%45.8840%49.2942%50.7058%
19044.6079%45.8855%49.2941%50.7059%
19144.6144%45.8619%49.3106%50.6894%
19244.6319%45.8547%49.3243%50.6757%
19344.6087%45.8763%49.2995%50.7005%
19444.6083%45.8737%49.3008%50.6992%
19544.6315%45.8559%49.3235%50.6765%
19644.6263%45.8555%49.3207%50.6793%
19744.6349%45.8460%49.3307%50.6693%
19844.6241%45.8606%49.3167%50.6833%
19944.6227%45.8573%49.3178%50.6822%
20044.6253%45.8556%49.3202%50.6798%
20144.6185%45.8640%49.3118%50.6882%
20244.6312%45.8635%49.3191%50.6809%
20344.6292%45.8571%49.3215%50.6785%
20444.6196%45.8601%49.3145%50.6855%
20544.6369%45.8505%49.3294%50.6706%
20644.6287%45.8554%49.3221%50.6779%
20744.6426%45.8363%49.3403%50.6597%
20844.6388%45.8523%49.3295%50.6705%
20944.6131%45.8662%49.3075%50.6925%
21044.6190%45.8665%49.3107%50.6893%
21144.6336%45.8536%49.3258%50.6742%
21244.6346%45.8458%49.3307%50.6693%
21344.6277%45.8662%49.3157%50.6843%
21444.6268%45.8566%49.3204%50.6796%
21544.6138%45.8775%49.3017%50.6983%
21644.6361%45.8513%49.3285%50.6715%
21744.6223%45.8628%49.3145%50.6855%
21844.6194%45.8677%49.3102%50.6898%
21944.6318%45.8559%49.3236%50.6764%
22044.6266%45.8547%49.3214%50.6786%
22144.6227%45.8623%49.3150%50.6850%
22244.6209%45.8577%49.3165%50.6835%
22344.6168%45.8651%49.3102%50.6898%
22444.6228%45.8649%49.3137%50.6863%
22544.6341%45.8551%49.3254%50.6746%
22644.6176%45.8698%49.3081%50.6919%
22744.6214%45.8551%49.3182%50.6818%
22844.6139%45.8804%49.3002%50.6998%
22944.6232%45.8644%49.3142%50.6858%
23044.6347%45.8601%49.3229%50.6771%
23144.6132%45.8701%49.3054%50.6946%
23244.6367%45.8488%49.3302%50.6698%
23344.6244%45.8575%49.3186%50.6814%
23444.6319%45.8517%49.3259%50.6741%
23544.6231%45.8606%49.3162%50.6838%
23644.6154%45.8713%49.3060%50.6940%
23744.6295%45.8461%49.3277%50.6723%
23844.6310%45.8559%49.3232%50.6768%
23944.6363%45.8472%49.3309%50.6691%
24044.6102%45.8762%49.3005%50.6995%
24144.6174%45.8670%49.3095%50.6905%
24244.6069%45.8829%49.2949%50.7051%
24344.6070%45.8740%49.2999%50.7001%
24444.6212%45.8716%49.3091%50.6909%
24544.6224%45.8654%49.3131%50.6869%
24644.6225%45.8680%49.3118%50.6882%
24744.6291%45.8643%49.3175%50.6825%
24844.6229%45.8624%49.3151%50.6849%
24944.6242%45.8586%49.3179%50.6821%
25044.6116%45.8703%49.3045%50.6955%
25144.6241%45.8550%49.3198%50.6802%
25244.6292%45.8618%49.3189%50.6811%
25344.6213%45.8621%49.3144%50.6856%
25444.6276%45.8453%49.3271%50.6729%
25544.6352%45.8508%49.3283%50.6717%
25644.6221%45.8556%49.3183%50.6817%
25744.6260%45.8610%49.3176%50.6824%
25844.6415%45.8420%49.3366%50.6634%
25944.6275%45.8591%49.3195%50.6805%
26044.6010%45.8892%49.2882%50.7118%
26144.6148%45.8625%49.3105%50.6895%
26244.6369%45.8453%49.3322%50.6678%
26344.6148%45.8775%49.3023%50.6977%
26444.6325%45.8572%49.3233%50.6767%
26544.6305%45.8516%49.3252%50.6748%
26644.6275%45.8618%49.3180%50.6820%
26744.6103%45.8728%49.3024%50.6976%
26844.6299%45.8576%49.3216%50.6784%
26944.6277%45.8563%49.3211%50.6789%
27044.6284%45.8532%49.3231%50.6769%
27144.6104%45.8715%49.3032%50.6968%
27244.6303%45.8548%49.3234%50.6766%
27344.6255%45.8606%49.3175%50.6825%
27444.6268%45.8612%49.3180%50.6820%
27544.6224%45.8650%49.3134%50.6866%
27644.6294%45.8527%49.3240%50.6760%
27744.6347%45.8548%49.3258%50.6742%
27844.6364%45.8453%49.3319%50.6681%
27944.6247%45.8648%49.3148%50.6852%
28044.6308%45.8576%49.3221%50.6779%
28144.6265%45.8578%49.3196%50.6804%
28244.6087%45.8717%49.3021%50.6979%
28344.6322%45.8392%49.3329%50.6671%
28444.6202%45.8628%49.3134%50.6866%
28544.6285%45.8572%49.3210%50.6790%
28644.6118%45.8732%49.3030%50.6970%
28744.6282%45.8533%49.3230%50.6770%
28844.6183%45.8739%49.3062%50.6938%
28944.6162%45.8694%49.3075%50.6925%
29044.6153%45.8645%49.3097%50.6903%
29144.6037%45.8752%49.2973%50.7027%
29244.6323%45.8540%49.3249%50.6751%
29344.6218%45.8547%49.3187%50.6813%
29444.6236%45.8585%49.3176%50.6824%
29544.6316%45.8507%49.3263%50.6737%
29644.6380%45.8492%49.3307%50.6693%
29744.6361%45.8477%49.3305%50.6695%
29844.6281%45.8557%49.3217%50.6783%
29944.6274%45.8598%49.3191%50.6809%
30044.6126%45.8681%49.3062%50.6938%
30144.6292%45.8658%49.3168%50.6832%
30244.6195%45.8649%49.3118%50.6882%
30344.6419%45.8433%49.3362%50.6638%
30444.6236%45.8677%49.3126%50.6874%
30544.6219%45.8605%49.3156%50.6844%
30644.6138%45.8714%49.3050%50.6950%
30744.6420%45.8464%49.3345%50.6655%
30844.6220%45.8619%49.3149%50.6851%
30944.6255%45.8487%49.3240%50.6760%
31044.6379%45.8461%49.3324%50.6676%
31144.6303%45.8548%49.3234%50.6766%
31244.6183%45.8679%49.3095%50.6905%
31344.6237%45.8538%49.3202%50.6798%
31444.6160%45.8754%49.3041%50.6959%
31544.6200%45.8625%49.3134%50.6866%
31644.6336%45.8480%49.3289%50.6711%
31744.6252%45.8637%49.3157%50.6843%
31844.6251%45.8710%49.3116%50.6884%
31944.6313%45.8533%49.3247%50.6753%
32044.6209%45.8619%49.3142%50.6858%
32144.6328%45.8512%49.3267%50.6733%
32244.6235%45.8562%49.3187%50.6813%
32344.6176%45.8697%49.3081%50.6919%
32444.6251%45.8498%49.3232%50.6768%
32544.6345%45.8507%49.3280%50.6720%
32644.6170%45.8678%49.3088%50.6912%
32744.6334%45.8556%49.3247%50.6753%
32844.6340%45.8498%49.3282%50.6718%
32944.6253%45.8570%49.3194%50.6806%
33044.6301%45.8500%49.3258%50.6742%
33144.6325%45.8554%49.3243%50.6757%
33244.6225%45.8653%49.3133%50.6867%
33344.6133%45.8622%49.3098%50.6902%
33444.6142%45.8735%49.3041%50.6959%
33544.6257%45.8520%49.3223%50.6777%
33644.6154%45.8590%49.3127%50.6873%
33744.6036%45.8760%49.2969%50.7031%
33844.6328%45.8537%49.3254%50.6746%
33944.6409%45.8452%49.3346%50.6654%
34044.6303%45.8609%49.3200%50.6800%
34144.6275%45.8627%49.3175%50.6825%
34244.6118%45.8730%49.3031%50.6969%
34344.6300%45.8656%49.3173%50.6827%
34444.6265%45.8556%49.3209%50.6791%
34544.6272%45.8588%49.3195%50.6805%
34644.6251%45.8512%49.3224%50.6776%
34744.6284%45.8586%49.3202%50.6798%
34844.6249%45.8592%49.3180%50.6820%
34944.6269%45.8592%49.3191%50.6809%
35044.6368%45.8516%49.3287%50.6713%
35144.6301%45.8503%49.3257%50.6743%
35244.6209%45.8719%49.3088%50.6912%
35344.6304%45.8598%49.3207%50.6793%
35444.6336%45.8528%49.3263%50.6737%
35544.6343%45.8567%49.3246%50.6754%
35644.6310%45.8610%49.3204%50.6796%
35744.6197%45.8691%49.3096%50.6904%
35844.6134%45.8558%49.3134%50.6866%
35944.6086%45.8710%49.3024%50.6976%
36044.6265%45.8591%49.3189%50.6811%
36144.6306%45.8569%49.3224%50.6776%
36244.6184%45.8660%49.3106%50.6894%
36344.6194%45.8658%49.3113%50.6887%
36444.6145%45.8659%49.3084%50.6916%
36544.6071%45.8722%49.3009%50.6991%
36644.6189%45.8650%49.3114%50.6886%
36744.6238%45.8613%49.3162%50.6838%
36844.6251%45.8518%49.3221%50.6779%
36944.6243%45.8554%49.3197%50.6803%
37044.6249%45.8665%49.3140%50.6860%
37144.6321%45.8490%49.3275%50.6725%
37244.6381%45.8523%49.3291%50.6709%
37344.6243%45.8559%49.3194%50.6806%
37444.6336%45.8511%49.3273%50.6727%
37544.6240%45.8623%49.3157%50.6843%
37644.6355%45.8496%49.3291%50.6709%
37744.6255%45.8595%49.3181%50.6819%
37844.6165%45.8605%49.3125%50.6875%
37944.6146%45.8625%49.3104%50.6896%
38044.6265%45.8600%49.3184%50.6816%
38144.6253%45.8647%49.3152%50.6848%
38244.6165%45.8652%49.3100%50.6900%
38344.6419%45.8469%49.3341%50.6659%
38444.6249%45.8604%49.3173%50.6827%
38544.6338%45.8523%49.3267%50.6733%
38644.6290%45.8552%49.3224%50.6776%
38744.6274%45.8538%49.3223%50.6777%
38844.6311%45.8545%49.3240%50.6760%
38944.6292%45.8496%49.3256%50.6744%
39044.6120%45.8731%49.3031%50.6969%
39144.6171%45.8689%49.3083%50.6917%
39244.6171%45.8696%49.3079%50.6921%
39344.6304%45.8546%49.3235%50.6765%
39444.6127%45.8655%49.3077%50.6923%
39544.6194%45.8679%49.3101%50.6899%
39644.6296%45.8554%49.3227%50.6773%
39744.6073%45.8756%49.2992%50.7008%
39844.6286%45.8556%49.3220%50.6780%
39944.6208%45.8654%49.3123%50.6877%
40044.6442%45.8509%49.3333%50.6667%
40144.6250%45.8680%49.3132%50.6868%
40244.6111%45.8714%49.3036%50.6964%
40344.6247%45.8588%49.3180%50.6820%
40444.6282%45.8604%49.3192%50.6808%
40544.6315%45.8514%49.3258%50.6742%
40644.6294%45.8606%49.3197%50.6803%
40744.6176%45.8596%49.3137%50.6863%
40844.6196%45.8652%49.3117%50.6883%
40944.6216%45.8672%49.3117%50.6883%

jugs
jugs
Joined: Mar 31, 2015
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 7
March 31st, 2015 at 6:11:44 PM permalink
Thanks for your help mate! Appreciate your time.
Seems like statistically there is no difference then :)

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