On Winning (for some 'On Losing')

For those of you who doubt, I deleted it, thanks!

How Many time a year do you play?

Quote: AxelWolf

How Many time a year do you play?

Now, 4 to 6 in Vegas or another high limit jurisdiction. Midwest lower limits for fun and a occasional few hours, (limits $25/50 min to $3k max) maybe 12 times a year? /2 x's maybe 3 x's a month. Last year 2014, zero. Prior to that maybe 12-15 times per year??. Prior to 2002 when I lived in New Jersey maybe 6 times per month. (times are trips whether 1 or 2 or 3 days) virtually every weekend in AC or CT or Flying to Vegas.

2 x's the same question was pm'd to me. Plateau is not the same as a win-goal. To me, they are very different. I do have win goals and that is roughly double to triple my buy in. But depending on how it comes, if it does, will determine how long I will play.

A "plateau" only seems that way because that's some point on the variance curve that you're unlikely to go above.

Or for APs, my "plateaus" happen because the casino backs me off so I CAN'T win more than a certain amount. I've never hit a win over 100K in a session.

Sure enough, my last trip, my team of 4 was up around 85K (I was the BP, so almost all of that was in front of me) and all of us got trespassed at that point.

From this context I would presume "plateau" could be replaced with "3 standard deviations." It's actually quite similar in other games, counting or not. For the amount one is betting (even if there is a spread), one can predict maximum wins/losses with over 99% certainty. Another words I could tell you on any one trip, giving your betting spread/game/HE/etc, a range you'll fall in with 99% certainty. From this you could draw your maximum win or loss "plateau."

So it sounds like you have a general 'feel' (given your experiences) for your standard deviations, which you refer to as your plateau win. I'd be interested to see how accurate that is. i.e. you give the info of what you play, then give your prediction on your max possible 'plateau win,' then compare this to the top end of 3 standard deviations to see how far off (or close =P) they are.

Quote: Baccaratfrom79

I talked to him a few days later and he puts his hand on my shoulder and says, I don't know what the f**k I was thinking, I gave it all to the other place. He further says, I probably never will win that much again.

That reminds me of the legendry Asian woman who took $9 Million from the Crown in Oz, then proceeded to blow the lot at rival interstate casinos, then there was a famed Roulette player from many years back whom was lucky one particular day and won £170k, went back the next day for some more and blow the lot, now is struggling to make ends meet.

A few acquaintances of mine from a very small bankroll managed to get £34k ahead, again playing Roulette. The casino told them we don't have the cash to pay you? So they said a cheque will do, the casino said we can't find the cheque book, can you come back tomorrow and we'll have the money ready. So they did and they played with £2k they had on them, lost that, then broke into the £34k waiting to be collected, taking £5 from it. To cut a long story short, the left with nothing, a FAT ZERO, ZILCH. They got played true and proper by the casino.

It is good to publicise stories like these, as it serves as a reminded to lock profits away.

Deleted, not a problem, ! Thanks.