Baccarat - Treasury Casino, Brisbane, Australia
The cut card is place exactly 14 cards from the back of the shoe.. Out of all gaming ive ever seen.. this is the only time i have seen a situation where u can place a bet 100% knowing that u are going to win.. you are just gambling with your time, not money.....
My question is.. if you sit there and marked the cards off as you went.. so you know exactly what cards are in the shoe once the cut card come out.. (from which there is one more hand dealt) this could be anywhere from 14 cards to 9..
if you know for a fact there is 100% picture cards (more likely) or 100% of any individual card.. Then the hand has to be a tie..
The biggest table accessible to someone, you can bet $9,375 on tie.. netting you $65,625.. Finding this shoe once or twice a year would be a boring.. but very livable income
Odds wise how long would u have to sit there before this event occurs? and is it a viable option?
Cheers
Quote: GoodShekkyHi, At Treasury Casino, there baccarat uses 8 decks
The cut card is place exactly 14 cards from the back of the shoe.. Out of all gaming ive ever seen.. this is the only time i have seen a situation where u can place a bet 100% knowing that u are going to win.. you are just gambling with your time, not money.....
My question is.. if you sit there and marked the cards off as you went.. so you know exactly what cards are in the shoe once the cut card come out.. (from which there is one more hand dealt) this could be anywhere from 14 cards to 9..
if you know for a fact there is 100% picture cards (more likely) or 100% of any individual card.. Then the hand has to be a tie..
The biggest table accessible to someone, you can bet $9,375 on tie.. netting you $65,625.. Finding this shoe once or twice a year would be a boring.. but very livable income
Odds wise how long would u have to sit there before this event occurs? and is it a viable option?
Cheers
The probability that even the last nine cards of the shoe are of the same rank is quite small. There are 32 cards of each of nine ranks and 128 tens in an eight-deck shoe, so the probability that the last nine cards are of the same rank is, in excel notation, =(9*combin(32,9)+combin(128,9))/combin(416,9), which is 0.00002023 or about 1 in 49,436. The corresponding probabilities for 10, 11, 12, 13, and 14 cards are 1 in 169,082; 1 in 581,757; 1 in 2,013,777; 1 in 7,013498; and 1 in 24,577,738; respectively.
So, the probability that the cards remaining in the shoe before the last hand are of the same rank is some weighted average of the above probabilities. A simple average of the above probabilities is 1 in 210,223 for an average wait of 210,223 shoes for a sure tie bet win. I don't know how much time a shoe of baccarat is but at one hour per shoe, for example, 210,223 shoes would take 24 years of continuous play!
Edit: A rough simulation of the number of cards remaining before the last hand gives these approximate weights: 9 cards - 7%, 10 cards - 13%, 11 cards - 20%, 12 cards - 21%, 13 cards - 21%, 14 cards - 19%. So the weighted average probability of a sure tie bet would be about 1 in 386,000. And playing 386,000 shoes at one hour per shoe would take about 44 years.
