Thread Rating:

Poll

2 votes (7.69%)
No votes (0%)
2 votes (7.69%)
4 votes (15.38%)
4 votes (15.38%)
5 votes (19.23%)
3 votes (11.53%)
6 votes (23.07%)

26 members have voted

onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
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September 13th, 2014 at 9:10:42 PM permalink
2.9/100 will be able to listen, repeat, and act on these complicated plans. Then when you almost make it, "no roll" until 7. Clearly there isn't a chance of shenanigans so it's zero.
I am a robot.
Wizard
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Wizard
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September 13th, 2014 at 9:10:47 PM permalink
Quote: teddys

Didn't you do this already with the reality TV show and the frat guys and concluded the best bet was the don't pass plus max odds?



As I recall, I told them to bet the pass and take the odds and grind their way up. Maybe I was wrong.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
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September 14th, 2014 at 1:15:06 AM permalink
Okay, so betting 27 may be optimal but why count out 27 when 30 is so easy. The three bucks would go to the waitress anyway.

I might consider the craps table for this but you know the guy is going to try to weasel his way out of the controversy by claiming its not a one bet plan.
Wizard
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Wizard
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September 14th, 2014 at 11:27:49 AM permalink
I ran some longer simulations. Here are my probabilities of turning $30 into $1,000 under the various strategies discussed:

Bet $30 on a single number: 2.6316%
Bet $27 on a single number and grind: 2.8043%
Bet $5 on the pass line, take full odds, and grind: 2.9140%
Bet $4 on the don't pass, lay full odds, and grind: 2.9244%
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Ahigh
Ahigh
Joined: May 19, 2010
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September 14th, 2014 at 11:47:06 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

As I recall, I told them to bet the pass and take the odds and grind their way up. Maybe I was wrong.



Last night at the Silverton, I lost $4,100 betting don't pass and lay odds exclusively. I didn't win a single bet the entire session.

But I sure had some "good bets."

$75 don't pass, and laying $999 on the 5 to try to win $666 was one of them.

The last time I had this bad of luck at the Silverton I bought in for $666.

I had $1 in the rail after that. So at least I wasn't broke.

In "Vegas 2047, High Limit Advantage Play Pinball" a single game and bet can take you from $30 to $1000.

Not only that, but if you have better than average skill, it can be an advantage play with positive EV.
aahigh.com
petroglyph
petroglyph
Joined: Jan 3, 2013
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September 14th, 2014 at 12:40:26 PM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

Last night at the Silverton, I lost $4,100 betting don't pass and lay odds exclusively. I didn't win a single bet the entire session.

But I sure had some "good bets."

$75 don't pass, and laying $999 on the 5 to try to win $666 was one of them.

The last time I had this bad of luck at the Silverton I bought in for $666.

I had $1 in the rail after that. So at least I wasn't broke.

In "Vegas 2047, High Limit Advantage Play Pinball" a single game and bet can take you from $30 to $1000.

Not only that, but if you have better than average skill, it can be an advantage play with positive EV.




Given the business you are in can you write that loss off on your taxes?

Professional gamer or research or something?
Ahigh
Ahigh
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September 14th, 2014 at 12:47:50 PM permalink
Quote: petroglyph

Given the business you are in can you write that loss off on your taxes?

Professional gamer or research or something?



Absolutely not. Aside from everything else, I won about that much in the previous few weeks. Losses are only good to offset wins, really when it comes to tax time. NOBODY gets a break for coming out behind gambling in the casino. You have to gamble on the stock market in order to enjoy that benefit.

I'm doing better at the tables than I am in the stock market, but even that doesn't benefit from realized losses as I trade exclusively in my Ameritrade IRA account which is all pre-tax funds.
aahigh.com
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
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September 14th, 2014 at 1:52:12 PM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

laying $999 on the 5 to try to win $666 ... The last time I had this bad of luck at the Silverton I bought in for $666.



The Dice, the cards, they not only have no sense of justice but are actually endowed with a sense of cruel irony. This devolves from the 'nature of random'. Ironically so, don't you see. 
Wizard
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Wizard
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September 14th, 2014 at 1:54:27 PM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit



Trivia time! What is the sum of all the numbers on a roulette wheel?
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
wudged
wudged
Joined: Aug 7, 2013
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September 14th, 2014 at 1:58:08 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Trivia time! What is the sum of all the numbers on a roulette wheel?



Single or double zero?

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