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Wizard
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Wizard
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September 13th, 2014 at 6:29:42 PM permalink
Earlier this week there was a show on the Discovery Channel called Beating the House. Part of the show featured Andy Bloch making the claim that the best way to turn $30 into $1000 was to bet the full $30 on a single number in double-zero roulette.

The probability of success with that strategy is 1/38=2.63%.

An obviously superior strategy would be to bet just $27 on a single number. If you win, you'll be at $975. If you lose you'll be at $3. Either way, make the smallest bet possible that will put you at exactly $1000 on any of the available bets, or your full bankroll if you don't have enough to reach $1000 in one bet. If such optimal bet is not an integer, then round down. Keep repeating until you get to $1000 or $0. I find the probability of success is 2.81%.

However, an even better strategy of betting 1/6 of your bankroll on the pass line in craps, followed by max odds (assume 3-4-5x allowed). If this would put you over $1,000 or cause a bet that isn't evenly divisible by $1, or cause a win that isn't divisible by $1, then round the bet down. I find such a strategy has a probability of success of 2.91%.

I'm going to look at the don't pass plus laying odds next.

The question for the poll is what would be your first bet if the goal was to maximize your chance of turning $30 into $1000? Let's assume the standard casino games available in any medium-sized casino.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Ayecarumba
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September 13th, 2014 at 6:39:25 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

...The question for the poll is what would be your first bet if the goal was to maximize your chance of turning $30 into $1000? Let's assume the standard casino games available in any medium-sized casino.



How about Craps? Hop a pair for the first leg, then go don't pass/lay odds for the balance?
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
AxiomOfChoice
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September 13th, 2014 at 6:47:42 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

The question for the poll is what would be your first bet if the goal was to maximize your chance of turning $30 into $1000? Let's assume the standard casino games available in any medium-sized casino.



Video poker might be worth looking into. A royal at 25c denom conveniently pays $1000. The problem becomes one of semantics -- which video poker paytables can we use? 100%+ games are not uncommon at quarter denom.

It's also not clear if playing games that require actual skill violates the spirit of the question.
AxiomOfChoice
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September 13th, 2014 at 6:49:56 PM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

How about Craps? Hop a pair for the first leg, then go don't pass/lay odds for the balance?



The "first leg" only wins 2.78% of the time. That means that you succeed strictly less often than that.
Pokeraddict
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September 13th, 2014 at 6:52:02 PM permalink
I like the idea of the don't side because after the first win you can bet two numbers (or almost with odds) and a single roll would win both, perhaps avoiding a lay on 4/10. If you win with two bets out there then you risk three on the next shooter. I suppose you would then need a fourth roll to get you the rest of the way if you weren't raising your bet enough.

This strategy only really requires three or four sevens as opposed to six passes unless I am missing something. Of course, you could get picked off, but not all on the same roll.
Ibeatyouraces
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September 13th, 2014 at 6:52:21 PM permalink
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DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
Deucekies
Deucekies
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September 13th, 2014 at 6:53:04 PM permalink
Playing Devil's Advocate, what is the best way to turn $30 into $1000 given the condition that you must go all in on any wager? No grinding allowed.
Casinos are not your friends, they want your money. But so does Disneyland. And there is no chance in hell that you will go to Disneyland and come back with more money than you went with. - AxelWolf and Mickeycrimm
Boz
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September 13th, 2014 at 6:53:22 PM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

One other reason Andy is wrong as well is that he should have said SINGLE zero roulette.



Not easy to find with a $30 bet.
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
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September 13th, 2014 at 7:01:44 PM permalink
deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
Pokeraddict
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September 13th, 2014 at 7:09:37 PM permalink
Quote: Boz

Not easy to find with a $30 bet.



I can name six places on the Strip that have $25 min Single Zero during the day. Four of them have European rules. There are probably more MGMs that have them in high limit that will open upon demand.

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