PGP - Dragon hand

I haven't been able to find much literature on this topic. When a Dragon hand is offered (for those who don't know, it's an additional hand offered to the players after all other player hands have been set), is there any known practical strategy in deciding whether or not to take it?

I would think the only cards with any real value to consider would be the Aces and Joker. Let's say all spots except for one are occupied at the table so that you can know how many of those cards are in players' hands. If none of them are held by players, the Dragon hand will likely contain some of those cards and probably be a strong hand. However at that point the dealer has the same chance of having the same strength hand. I just can't figure if there's any Monte Hall effect going on where there's some value to be gained from switching.

I tend to think there isn't and that essentially I'm buying another hand at the same price as my first one, only now we are doing battle over hands that have a higher expected strength than when I placed my original wager. The thing that nags at me though is that it seems like there should be some value in being able to see/know so many of the cards already dealt. I just can't figure out where that value would come from. So that's why I pose my quandary to the many great minds on this forum.

Quote: gts4ever

I haven't been able to find much literature on this topic. When a Dragon hand is offered (for those who don't know, it's an additional hand offered to the players after all other player hands have been set), is there any known practical strategy in deciding whether or not to take it?

I would think the only cards with any real value to consider would be the Aces and Joker. Let's say all spots except for one are occupied at the table so that you can know how many of those cards are in players' hands. If none of them are held by players, the Dragon hand will likely contain some of those cards and probably be a strong hand. However at that point the dealer has the same chance of having the same strength hand. I just can't figure if there's any Monte Hall effect going on where there's some value to be gained from switching.

I tend to think there isn't and that essentially I'm buying another hand at the same price as my first one, only now we are doing battle over hands that have a higher expected strength than when I placed my original wager. The thing that nags at me though is that it seems like there should be some value in being able to see/know so many of the cards already dealt. I just can't figure out where that value would come from. So that's why I pose my quandary to the many great minds on this forum.

I've never accepted the dragon hand, but now that you mention it, if you are in the middle of the table and can see everyone elses cards plus yours and notice the joker is still available it might be a good play. Yes, the dealer could have it, but with a 50/50 chance (on a full table) of having the joker, that seems better than the chance of your original hand winning???


ZCore13

Quote: Zcore13

I've never accepted the dragon hand, but now that you mention it, if you are in the middle of the table and can see everyone elses cards plus yours and notice the joker is still available it might be a good play. Yes, the dealer could have it, but with a 50/50 chance (on a full table) of having the joker, that seems better than the chance of your original hand winning???

It could also be in the last four soda cards, so it's a 7/18 chance, not quite 50:50.

Quote: Deucekies

It could also be in the last four soda cards, so it's a 7/18 chance, not quite 50:50.

True, but that's pretty good odds for a very important card. Especially if you can play bonus bet on dragon hand. I don't know if you can. That may be the key.

ZCore13

Quote: Zcore13

I've never accepted the dragon hand, but now that you mention it, if you are in the middle of the table and can see everyone elses cards plus yours and notice the joker is still available it might be a good play. Yes, the dealer could have it, but with a 50/50 chance (on a full table) of having the joker, that seems better than the chance of your original hand winning???

The joker is just as valuable in the dealer's hand as it is in yours. You aren't gaining anything here.

Quote: AxiomOfChoice

The joker is just as valuable in the dealer's hand as it is in yours. You aren't gaining anything here.

But how often are you going to have an almost 50% chance of having the joker?

Also - possible flush draws - full table - and no one has a particular suit...

Quote: Deucekies

But how often are you going to have an almost 50% chance of having the joker?

What does that have to do with anything?

Suppose that there was a very simple game where there were 7 cards in the deck: 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 and ace. Ace is high. Everyone (including the dealer) gets one card. You win if your card is higher than the dealer, and they take a 5% commission on wins. Basically, casino war with a 7-card deck no war You win 50% of the time.

Now, say they dealt it like pai gow poker. You look around and see everyone else's cards are 2, 3, 4, 5, 6. Say you have the option of taking the dragon hand. You have a 50% chance of getting an ace, and a 50% chance of getting the 7. Great! You are guaranteed one of the two highest cards. So what? Your chances of winning that hand are still 50%.

Quote: AxiomOfChoice

What does that have to do with anything?

Suppose that there was a very simple game where there were 7 cards in the deck: 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 and ace. Ace is high. Everyone (including the dealer) gets one card. You win if your card is higher than the dealer, and they take a 5% commission on wins. Basically, casino war with a 7-card deck no war You win 50% of the time.

Now, say they dealt it like pai gow poker. You look around and see everyone else's cards are 2, 3, 4, 5, 6. Say you have the option of taking the dragon hand. You have a 50% chance of getting an ace, and a 50% chance of getting the 7. Great! You are guaranteed one of the two highest cards. So what? Your chances of winning that hand are still 50%.

The side bet is where it would make a difference. A great chance of having THE card in the game that makes it easier to hit a bonus hand. It fills in anywhere for a straight or flush (or better yet a straight flush)

ZCore13

Quote: Zcore13

The side bet is where it would make a difference. A great chance of having THE card in the game that makes it easier to hit a bonus hand. It fills in anywhere for a straight or flush (or better yet a straight flush)

ZCore13

My understanding is that most places don't let you bet the bonus on the dragon hand.

I wonder if the expectation on the bonus would ever be positive if you could see enough cards?

I do not believe I've ever seen side bets allowed on the Dragon hand.

Quote: gts4ever

I do not believe I've ever seen side bets allowed on the Dragon hand.

I guess the question is IF someplace did allow it, at what point is it advantagouse to take it? You see 3 hands and no joker? 4 hands and no joker? 5 hands?

ZCore13

Since no one else mentioned it ... this article is on beating the Dragon hand.

http://apheat.net/2013/11/15/hole-carding-pai-gow-poker/

Quote: teliot

Since no one else mentioned it ... this article is on beating the Dragon hand.

http://apheat.net/2013/11/15/hole-carding-pai-gow-poker/

That is definitely one way to beat it if you can see that bottom card of the dragon hand.

But I think getting information on the other 4 player hands at the table might be easier, if you're at a "friendly" table.