gr8player
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March 8th, 2014 at 10:10:40 AM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

I can write up phoney trip reports as well.



Yes, I suppose any one of us can....
.....but, towards what end? Self-aggrandizement? From whom....faceless people on the 'net? And who's got the time or energy for any of that?

No, Ibeatyouraces, I think that I cannot be bothered to "write up phoney trip reports". Sorry.
AxelWolf
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March 8th, 2014 at 11:48:23 AM permalink
Quote: gr8player

Yes, I suppose any one of us can....
.....but, towards what end? Self-aggrandizement? From whom....faceless people on the 'net? And who's got the time or energy for any of that?

No, Ibeatyouraces, I think that I cannot be bothered to "write up phoney trip reports". Sorry.

How about at least giving us one ounce of proof you even play baccarat.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
soxfan
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March 8th, 2014 at 1:15:31 PM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

Totally reasonable with a negative progression. How much do you lose when it goes bad?



A progression bustout clips me for 175 units. But, I often cpature 40-50+ units profits from winning shoes so a single progression bust don't eat up too much accumulated profits. And, with my style I can win, well and regular with a paltry stike rate of just 16.66666666666666666 percents, hey hey!
" Life is a well of joy; but where the rabble drinks too, all wells are poisoned!" Nietzsche
AxiomOfChoice
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March 8th, 2014 at 9:09:15 PM permalink
Quote: gr8player

Yes, I suppose any one of us can....
.....but, towards what end? Self-aggrandizement?



From you? Unthinkable!
gr8player
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March 10th, 2014 at 11:13:41 AM permalink
Quote: soxfan

And, with my style I can win, well and regular with a paltry stike rate of just 16.66666666666666666 percents, hey hey!



God Bless you, Soxster....absolutely amazing. You've gotta have balls of steel, my friend.

As always, I wish you all continued successes.
gr8player
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March 10th, 2014 at 11:25:48 AM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

From you? Unthinkable!



Yeah, I get it, AxiomOfChoice, the apparent braggadocio...I get it.

I do so enjoy conversing about Baccarat. That said, I do understand that there exists differences of opinion regarding my posted methodologies and theories and the results thereof.

My posts are not ego-driven. I might be a bit over-zealous at times, but that's nothing more than my exhilaration speaking.

I love the challenge that this game poses, and I enjoy getting the better of it when I can. I am, after all is said and done, a very, very conservative player.

So "getting the better of it" can mean something totally different to me than it might to someone else.

But, IMHO, that does nothing to diminish my victories and how I feel about them.

That's what you're reading into my posts, not self-aggrandizement or braggadocio. Rather, exhilaration from a job darn-well done.
AxelWolf
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March 10th, 2014 at 11:37:35 AM permalink
Quote: gr8player I am, after all is said and done, a very, very conservative player.
.[/q

You would have to be after a "250k loss". So...... I'm not sure how(amusing you even play) you can ever make that up playing 15 bucks a hand?

>>IF<< you are playing and consistently winning, That may be due to variance, since you are already down 250k that would make some sense.

♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
gr8player
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March 10th, 2014 at 1:04:32 PM permalink
"15 bucks a hand", AxelWolf?

How did you come up with that one?

Does the truth matter, or, rather, is it only what you think that matters?

You never cease to amaze me, AxelWolf.
DMSCR
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March 10th, 2014 at 10:23:08 PM permalink
gr8,

When you are at the Borgata, did you ever run into a day where the darn place opens up all their baccarat tables? Or at least most of them?

I may drop by there come the weather is warming up and the pot holes are fixed. Need new scenery! Plus the place is very generous with room comps plus it only costs me a mere $34 on the Lucky Streak at Times Square instead of dragging myself to JFK towards the great Vegas.
michael99000
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March 10th, 2014 at 11:34:18 PM permalink
Quote: gr8player

Your offer, as stated, remains as an insult to my intelligence. I respectfully decline, yet again.



The standard reply every time someone claiming to beat a -EV game is asked to back it up with proof LOL
gr8player
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March 11th, 2014 at 10:19:39 AM permalink
Quote: DMSCR

gr8,

When you are at the Borgata, did you ever run into a day where the darn place opens up all their baccarat tables? Or at least most of them?

I may drop by there come the weather is warming up and the pot holes are fixed. Need new scenery! Plus the place is very generous with room comps plus it only costs me a mere $34 on the Lucky Streak at Times Square instead of dragging myself to JFK towards the great Vegas.



Hello, D-man, I trust all is well with you.

You hit the nail on the head regarding the Borgata...they are reluctant to open new Bac tables. As a matter of fact, they replaced two of them with Pai Gow tables. So you'd think they'd open tables early and willingly; alas, neither is the case. I find myself waiting for a seat more often than not. Very frustrating.

But, they are generous with their comps. Especially room comps, all that is necessary is the Borgata Black card for most accommodations. As to their point structure, though, one must bear in mind that any store purchase is expensed at 2 comp dollars for each dollar of purchase.

Yeah...c'mon out and take in AC...the doldrums of Winter appear in our rear-view mirrors, and AC is a much better attraction in the Spring/Summer.

Stay well, my friend.
gr8player
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March 11th, 2014 at 11:07:54 AM permalink
Quote: michael99000

The standard reply every time someone claiming to beat a -EV game is asked to back it up with proof LOL



Hello, michael99000, I trust all is well with you.

Proof? Is that all.....?

You appear as an intelligent man to me.

Pardon my indulgence as I ask you a question, hypothetically of course:

If you had worked long and hard at this game and finally came up with a bet selection process that yields positive numbers (read: strike rates above 50%) on a very consistent basis (relatively); would you be hesitant to detail precisely said method on any public forum?

Of course you would....as, my friend, would I.

Proof? Do I owe you something? Anything?
Ibeatyouraces
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March 11th, 2014 at 11:47:57 AM permalink
deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
DMSCR
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March 11th, 2014 at 3:25:40 PM permalink
Quote: gr8player

Hello, D-man, I trust all is well with you.

You hit the nail on the head regarding the Borgata...they are reluctant to open new Bac tables. As a matter of fact, they replaced two of them with Pai Gow tables. So you'd think they'd open tables early and willingly; alas, neither is the case. I find myself waiting for a seat more often than not. Very frustrating.

But, they are generous with their comps. Especially room comps, all that is necessary is the Borgata Black card for most accommodations. As to their point structure, though, one must bear in mind that any store purchase is expensed at 2 comp dollars for each dollar of purchase.

Yeah...c'mon out and take in AC...the doldrums of Winter appear in our rear-view mirrors, and AC is a much better attraction in the Spring/Summer.

Stay well, my friend.



Blah! Thanks for the info. Sticking with Vegas for now I guess. I hate AC. They have tons of tables but only open a fraction of them. Only Ballys and Caesars have all their tables opened.
gr8player
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March 11th, 2014 at 4:07:20 PM permalink
It's funny that you brought up Ballys and Caesars; I was talking about those casinos and their numerous Bac tables to the Pit Boss at Borgata while I was waiting for another Bac game to open up.

No doubt, there's much more Bac action in either of those joints.

But I'm not a fan of Ballys....neither my host nor their rooms suit my taste. Alas, it appears as if I'll have to bite the bullet on this one and get back to CET. I was a Diamond player there, but got knocked down to Platinum when I gave Ballys up for aforementioned reasons.

My Bac play takes precedence over my qualms about the joint, so I'll be re-calling my host soon enough. Borgata, as much as I love the hotel, does not run their Bac games very well.

Lastly, D-man, as to your "I hate AC" comment....can't blame you, my friend. It's AC's own fault...the place is almost depressing. Sans a couple of hotels, the accommodations are second-rate, as is what used to serve as attractions. Shame, really....how the mighty have fallen.

Stay well.

Oh, and as to LV, I agree...head and shoulders above AC...but, alas, I am not a good flyer, preferring my feet (along with the rest of my body) grounded.
michael99000
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March 11th, 2014 at 4:56:18 PM permalink
Quote: gr8player

Hello, michael99000, I trust all is well with you.

Proof? Is that all.....?

You appear as an intelligent man to me.

Pardon my indulgence as I ask you a question, hypothetically of course:

If you had worked long and hard at this game and finally came up with a bet selection process that yields positive numbers (read: strike rates above 50%) on a very consistent basis (relatively); would you be hesitant to detail precisely said method on any public forum?

Of course you would....as, my friend, would I.

Proof? Do I owe you something? Anything?



Your posts provide nothing but humor, in so much as your claims are so false they are funny.

I would not want to wager on it either if I were you, why add further monetary losses beyond what the game itself causes.

Best of luck to you in coming out ahead playing a game with a built in house edge in each and every hand. After hundreds of years and countless attempts by others not nearly as savvy as you, you finally figured out how to beat the game.
AxelWolf
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March 11th, 2014 at 5:11:05 PM permalink
Quote: gr8player

"15 bucks a hand", AxelWolf?

How did you come up with that one?

Does the truth matter, or, rather, is it only what you think that matters?

You never cease to amaze me, AxelWolf.

OK, fine .........10 bucks a hand. Jeez! give a guy a hard time for being $5 off
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
gr8player
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March 11th, 2014 at 5:34:37 PM permalink
Quote: michael99000

Your posts provide nothing but humor, in so much as your claims are so false they are funny.



I take issue with this comment, as it is both dismissive and derogatory.

Quote: michael99000

After hundreds of years and countless attempts by others not nearly as savvy as you, you finally figured out how to beat the game.



I'm not so sure about that, michael99000. I don't know that I've yet "figured out how to beat the game"; only time will tell.

As of this moment in time, I am feeling very good about my prospects, but, as we all know, things change. We shall see, eventually, if, in fact, I have this game beaten. I hope so. But only time will tell. (As will I....stayed tuned.)
DMSCR
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March 11th, 2014 at 7:16:33 PM permalink
Quote: gr8player

It's funny that you brought up Ballys and Caesars; I was talking about those casinos and their numerous Bac tables to the Pit Boss at Borgata while I was waiting for another Bac game to open up.

No doubt, there's much more Bac action in either of those joints.

But I'm not a fan of Ballys....neither my host nor their rooms suit my taste. Alas, it appears as if I'll have to bite the bullet on this one and get back to CET. I was a Diamond player there, but got knocked down to Platinum when I gave Ballys up for aforementioned reasons.

My Bac play takes precedence over my qualms about the joint, so I'll be re-calling my host soon enough. Borgata, as much as I love the hotel, does not run their Bac games very well.

Lastly, D-man, as to your "I hate AC" comment....can't blame you, my friend. It's AC's own fault...the place is almost depressing. Sans a couple of hotels, the accommodations are second-rate, as is what used to serve as attractions. Shame, really....how the mighty have fallen.

Stay well.

Oh, and as to LV, I agree...head and shoulders above AC...but, alas, I am not a good flyer, preferring my feet (along with the rest of my body) grounded.



I have only been to the Borgata three times and they were all very frustrating. I am in no way the level you are in tier since I am just the simple red card holder, the comps are still pretty generous. Best one out of all the casinos I go to. Just don't like the fact that I have to wait for a table where there are many instances I miss my chances. Plus only the EZ bac tables were opened where I got pushed a few times because of that Dragon 7. Instead of getting the pay out and hit my target and leave. I have to end up staying longer which is not something I like to do. In Vegas it may be just a mere 10 to 20 minutes but at the Borgata things end up being 40 minutes to an hour and a half. There are the Dragon Bonus tables but they are always filled up too since there are so few of them. Two from what I remember.

Only reason I like Ballys is it is the main bus terminal for the Lucky Streak. Plus that noodle bar has some awesome food. Played there only once but I found the place too worn down and depressing. Which describes AC in general which is sad really. Just like Total Rewards because of good room discounts across their properties in the U.S.

I have not played in the East Coast casinos for a good while and only focus on my time in Vegas nowadays. Would play so again in the East Coast if Steve Wynn gets his way and gets to build his urban Wynn in Everett if not and most preferably in New York if he doesn't win the license for MA.
michael99000
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March 11th, 2014 at 11:16:06 PM permalink
Quote: gr8player

.....actually:

Develop a bet selection process with either 2 or 3 (at most) preferred selections that carry relatively high strike rates and relatively tight variances. Play the selection (or selections) that THIS PARTICULR SHOE (or portion thereof) is disposed to dispense. Adjust bet sizes should certain variance "drops" occur, in order to recoup efficiently. Combine this with conservative win goals per shoe/session, and you are GOLDEN. Why:

BECAUSE YOUR RISK OF RUIN IS VIRTUALLY NIL.

When you get your Bac game to that point, you'll know it.

As always, I wish you all the best of it.



Anytime you decide you're willing to back up this useless trash of a claim with a real money wager, count me in for a piece of the action betting against you.. For as much money as you're willing to bet.

I will , however, need some proof beforehand that you can pay me if you lose. The financial stability of anyone who plays baccarat regularly has to be questioned.
treetopbuddy
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March 12th, 2014 at 1:54:38 PM permalink
Is it true that the hold on Baccarat is approximately 15%? If true, the house advantage of 1.5% seems to be a meaningless number.
Each day is better than the next
gpac1377
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March 12th, 2014 at 2:23:05 PM permalink
Quote: treetopbuddy

Is it true that the hold on Baccarat is approximately 15%? If true, the house advantage of 1.5% seems to be a meaningless number.


I'm not sure what you're suggesting. There's some good prior discussion here:

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/general/3327-what-is-hold-percentage/

and here:

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/tables/3503-hold-percentage/

The hold depends on a variety of factors, whereas I would say the house advantage is a more straightforward statistic.
"Scientists tell us that the fastest animal on earth, with a top speed of 120 feet per second, is a cow that has been dropped out of a helicopter."
treetopbuddy
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March 12th, 2014 at 2:32:01 PM permalink
Thanks for links……reinforced my initial thought. Seems like the hold is a very important number when considering ones chances for success in any given game. The house edge might be 2% but if the hold is 15-20% why would the houses mathematical edge really matter? Not arguing, trying to understand.
Each day is better than the next
thecesspit
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March 12th, 2014 at 2:39:41 PM permalink
Quote: treetopbuddy

Thanks for links……reinforced my initial thought. Seems like the hold is a very important number when considering ones chances for success in any given game. The house edge might be 2% but if the hold is 15-20% why would the houses mathematical edge really matter? Not arguing, trying to understand.



As from the previous discussion, the hold is dependent on length of time playing and how people play. The house edge is static and consequence of the rules of the game. The hold is variable and dependent on not only the game, but the way people play it.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
treetopbuddy
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March 12th, 2014 at 2:46:35 PM permalink
Quote: thecesspit

As from the previous discussion, the hold is dependent on length of time playing and how people play. The house edge is static and consequence of the rules of the game. The hold is variable and dependent on not only the game, but the way people play it.



Sorry to belabor the point…..but if the hold is 15% in the long run (whatever that is), which then represents a cross section of play, it just seems to me the hold is a more telling number vs. house edge.
Each day is better than the next
gpac1377
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March 12th, 2014 at 2:53:49 PM permalink
Quote: treetopbuddy

Sorry to belabor the point…..but if the hold is 15% in the long run (whatever that is), which then represents a cross section of play, it just seems to me the hold is a more telling number vs. house edge.


No problem.

The hold is multiplied against your buy-in amount.

The house edge is multiplied against your total amount of action.

Let's say you buy in for $500, and your total action is $5,000.

The hold calculation would be $500 x 15% = $75.

The house edge calculation would be $5,000 x 1.5% = $75.

Different ways of measuring the same thing.
"Scientists tell us that the fastest animal on earth, with a top speed of 120 feet per second, is a cow that has been dropped out of a helicopter."
gpac1377
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March 12th, 2014 at 3:09:16 PM permalink
I'll try one other note of explanation.

If my bet amount is $50, and the house edge is 1.5%, I can expect to lose an average of 75 cents per bet.

From there, it's simply a question of how many bets. If I play 60 bets, I lose $45. If I play 200 bets, I lose $150.

People may tend to underestimate their number of bets, I would guess.
"Scientists tell us that the fastest animal on earth, with a top speed of 120 feet per second, is a cow that has been dropped out of a helicopter."
gr8player
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March 12th, 2014 at 3:21:48 PM permalink
Quote: gpac1377

The hold is multiplied against your buy-in amount.

The house edge is multiplied against your total amount of action.

Let's say you buy in for $500, and your total action is $5,000.

The hold calculation would be $500 x 15% = $75.

The house edge calculation would be $5,000 x 1.5% = $75.

Different ways of measuring the same thing.



Nope, sorry.
gr8player
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March 12th, 2014 at 3:22:29 PM permalink
Quote: thecesspit

As from the previous discussion, the hold is dependent on length of time playing and how people play. The house edge is static and consequence of the rules of the game. The hold is variable and dependent on not only the game, but the way people play it.



Correct.
gr8player
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March 12th, 2014 at 3:27:19 PM permalink
Quote: treetopbuddy

Is it true that the hold on Baccarat is approximately 15%? If true, the house advantage of 1.5% seems to be a meaningless number.



That's true, and I put more weight into the casino hold than I do the casino edge; so do the casinos.

I don't want to spend hours on this, but that is why I deem the edge virtually meaningless, frankly, a mere nuisance.

Thank Goodness the casinos make their real money with their true hold; if that weren't the case, I'd have been given my walking papers long ago.
thecesspit
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March 13th, 2014 at 10:14:18 AM permalink
Quote: gr8player

That's true, and I put more weight into the casino hold than I do the casino edge; so do the casinos.

I don't want to spend hours on this, but that is why I deem the edge virtually meaningless, frankly, a mere nuisance.

Thank Goodness the casinos make their real money with their true hold; if that weren't the case, I'd have been given my walking papers long ago.



(head-desk).

It's not meaningless at all. As a player, you should be concerned about the edge. The HOLD is meaningless to an individual player (in general... I am sure someone can think of a way to use the hold for their play, but of the top of my head, I can't see why it matters to me). Unless you wanted to calculate your own 'hold' for your own play, I guess. But that's easy to work out : = Sum of (Expected Value X bet size) for all bets made. That's your expected hold. Your actual hold will vary from session to session, just like... your actual value varies from session to session.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
gr8player
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March 13th, 2014 at 10:45:27 AM permalink
Hello, thecesspit, I trust all is well with you.

OK, maybe "meaningless", as it pertains to the house edge, wasn't my best choice of words.

But, "...concerned about the edge"? Maybe as I was developing my Bac play. But, now, I'm way, waayyy past it.

Now, to me, the house edge is nothing more than one of the necessary costs of doing business. A mere business expense, as would any utility or rent bill be to any thriving business.
gr8player
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March 15th, 2014 at 7:50:55 AM permalink
As promised....

Thursday night session 9:30 P.M. buy-in

Ouch.....
First shoe W3 L11 (actually, there were two bets, both losers, from the tail end of the prior shoe, then the entire next one) as I said...Ouch...had to go into "2-ville" of my progression rather early in this crap session.
Second shoe W10 L8 had to get into "3-ville" at one point, which is a rarity for me, but I needed a "4-over" in the 3rd level, and man, that took quite some t..i..m..e...
Third shoe W9 L7 finally...got my "4-over" after 3 1/4 slow and exhausting shoes...session ended at 1 o'clock in the morning.

Session total: Won only 22 of 48 bets for a paltry 46% strike rate, ending with a +1 unit on my scorecard but a -1 in my pocket. Why? Commission. Mohegan Sun has commission-only Bac games, and, after a long time in "3-ville", the commissions amassed relatively quickly. That's what happens in "extended, tougher-than-ususal" sessions, and that's why I prefer the Dragon baccarat with its no commish charges.

Friday afternoon session 1:45 P.M. buy-in

Yes!!!!....
First (and only) shoe W10 L1 Wow...I lost my first bet, and proceeded to win the next 10 in-a-row! Unbelievable! Needless to say, I took the money and ran, especially after last night's drag of a grind. (Sidenote: Whenever I'm fortunate enough to be there for the wedding, I don't ever want to be stupid enough to remain for the funeral.) Also, that last win...the 10th in-a-row...put me at a +9. And 9 appears as my "variance number". Read: In my difficult sessions, "9-under" seems to be the "bottom of the bottom"; that being the case, I'll naturally assume that "9-above" will serve as the "top of the top".

Session total: Won 10 of 11 bets for an amazing 91% strike rate, ending at a +9 units (+8 1/2 after comm and tip)

Trip totals: Won 32 of 59 bets for a 54% strike rate and a +8 units won.

Toughie session on Thursday night is draining....understand that I don't play every hand, I play a very deliberate and patient game, so when it's not going as well as planned, it can be (and is) a bit draining, as my recoup process is a conservative one....understand also that I work for a living, I'm up at 6:30 a.m. on Thursday morning to get to work, then I leave at 5 p.m. and pick up a rental car and drive 2 1/2 to 3 hrs then check-in and buy-in...all done late that same night...so when Thursday night sessions are difficult ones, it is draining on me in every sense of the word.

That all said, I was still able to "fight it off" (read: come out on top or even). As I've said countless times, loss avoidance is paramount to any serious player's play. Why? Well, simply witness my next session on Friday afternoon. A "breeze" of a win. And that session, and sessions like those that do go according to my stats and are relative "breezes", become PURE PROFIT.

So as draining as those loss avoidance sessions are, they are a necessity. Gotta fight off those tougher-than-usual sessions as best we can. Then the "normal" sessions can serve as pure profit. And that, my friends, will always suffice to make it all...the job, the hours, the travel, the play...WORTHWHILE.

I wish you all the very best of it.
treetopbuddy
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March 15th, 2014 at 8:54:17 AM permalink
The Ultimate Baccarat Strategy sold by Silverthorne is a decent system (I didn't buy it)……still a loser, but his Master Bet Placement and Master Bet Sizing ideas can keep a person playing for a while.
Each day is better than the next
gr8player
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March 15th, 2014 at 9:11:57 AM permalink
Hello, TTB, I trust all is well with you.

I know nothing of the systems that you're referencing just above, and, frankly, I think your "still a loser" comment suffices as my justification.

I'm not really interested in any "keep a person playing for a while" methods either. I prefer to play a plan that will serve to neutralize the negative expectancy of the game, hence yielding a long-term profit. I'm not interested in "playing for a while", unless it pertains to, well...sex.

Stay well, my friend.
treetopbuddy
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March 15th, 2014 at 9:25:08 AM permalink
Quote: gr8player

Hello, TTB, I trust all is well with you.

I know nothing of the systems that you're referencing just above, and, frankly, I think your "still a loser" comment suffices as my justification.

I'm not really interested in any "keep a person playing for a while" methods either. I prefer to play a plan that will serve to neutralize the negative expectancy of the game, hence yielding a long-term profit. I'm not interested in "playing for a while", unless it pertains to, well...sex.

Stay well, my friend.



Check it out…..the system calls for a mild negative progression to recapture loses. The bet placement strategy seems to capture streaks, chops, etc……good MM advice.
Each day is better than the next
gr8player
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March 15th, 2014 at 9:56:54 AM permalink
TTB, my "Gr8Player's Progression" is the "mild negative progression" that I utilize, as it not only "recaptures losses", it serves to put me into profit, as well.

As to the bet placement strategy, FLD (read: Follow Last Decision) will serve to capture the streaks, while OLD (read: Opposite Last Decision) will serve to capture the chops.

I much prefer my "one and done" bet placement methodology, where I hit the trend and then am off of it until its reoccurrence.

But, as they say, "to each his own", so if you happen to like your referenced method, by all means, go for it.

I wish you the very best of it.
Gamblor
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March 15th, 2014 at 11:17:51 AM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

His risk of ruin is 100%. That is minimized.




How is his risk of ruin %100? Because he has been winning and is due for a loss? Variance? I keep hearing all these descriptions and words, I'll be honest I don't know all the definitions. But to think he is%100 to fail is not sound reasoning to me. Go easy, I know people who believe in the "voodoo" around here get it from all sides. He is winning but you say he will eventually lose? That sounds like gamblers fallacy to me. Quoted by the great wizard ..."The biggest gambling myth is that an event that has not happened recently becomes overdue and more likely to occur. This is known as the “gambler’s fallacy.” "". Maybe we need to make a mathematicians fallacy. I try to use math by quantum physics and see that the card is actually every card possible at once before it is turned over. Every possibility exists and is real until the card is flipped and observed by the observer. Changing it from a wave form to a particle form. (See: 2 slits experiment in quantum physics). So if we take the photon, that switches from a wave form to a particle (the same as the card) simply by being observed, the observer has the power to change "physical reality" only by observing. Transfer that to the baccarat tables, feel it, believe it, get in "the ZONE" and you have a system ;)
thecesspit
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March 15th, 2014 at 3:33:34 PM permalink
Quote: Gamblor

How is his risk of ruin %100? Because he has been winning and is due for a loss? Variance? I keep hearing all these descriptions and words, I'll be honest I don't know all the definitions. But to think he is%100 to fail is not sound reasoning to me.



Given no end point and a fixed bankroll, anyone playing a negative expectation game will eventually lose their entire bankroll, or be at a point it is so small they can not make a minimum bet anywhere.

Note those two very important caveats : No end point and fixed bankroll.

Quote:

Go easy, I know people who believe in the "voodoo" around here get it from all sides. He is winning but you say he will eventually lose? That sounds like gamblers fallacy to me. Quoted by the great wizard ..."The biggest gambling myth is that an event that has not happened recently becomes overdue and more likely to occur. This is known as the “gambler’s fallacy.” "". Maybe we need to make a mathematicians fallacy. I try to use math by quantum physics and see that the card is actually every card possible at once before it is turned over. Every possibility exists and is real until the card is flipped and observed by the observer. Changing it from a wave form to a particle form. (See: 2 slits experiment in quantum physics). So if we take the photon, that switches from a wave form to a particle (the same as the card) simply by being observed, the observer has the power to change "physical reality" only by observing. Transfer that to the baccarat tables, feel it, believe it, get in "the ZONE" and you have a system ;)



It's not the gambler's fallacy. Given a bankroll X and game with negative expectation, with each result a variable chance. And assume each result is independent of the previous one. X may rise and fall, but over the long term, X will go to 0. That is an emergent result by rules I stated. The gambler's fallacy is trying to predict near term events based on previous events. Given the game is random and each result is independent, the previous results don't matter. It's like starting from scratch each and every time.

Given a positive expectation game, X -may- fall to 0 eventually, but it is not 100% that it will happen.

Quantum effects do not work at the macro scale, according to what I learnt.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
soxfan
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March 15th, 2014 at 4:06:05 PM permalink
Quote: gr8player

Trip totals: Won 32 of 59 bets for a 54% strike rate and a +8 units won.

Toughie session on Thursday night is draining....understand that I don't play every hand, I play a very deliberate and patient game, so when it's not going as well as planned, it can be (and is) a bit draining, as my recoup process is a conservative one....understand also that I work for a living, I'm up at 6:30 a.m. on Thursday morning to get to work, then I leave at 5 p.m. and pick up a rental car and drive 2 1/2 to 3 hrs then check-in and buy-in...all done late that same night...so when Thursday night sessions are difficult ones, it is draining on me in every sense of the word.

That all said, I was still able to "fight it off" (read: come out on top or even). As I've said countless times, loss avoidance is paramount to any serious player's play. Why? Well, simply witness my next session on Friday afternoon. A "breeze" of a win. And that session, and sessions like those that do go according to my stats and are relative "breezes", become PURE PROFIT.

So as draining as those loss avoidance sessions are, they are a necessity. Gotta fight off those tougher-than-usual sessions as best we can. Then the "normal" sessions can serve as pure profit. And that, my friends, will always suffice to make it all...the job, the hours, the travel, the play...WORTHWHILE.

I wish you all the very best of it.



The gr88888888one comes through, again. You should really ditch yer regular job and make the baccarats yer fulltime gig, hey hey!
" Life is a well of joy; but where the rabble drinks too, all wells are poisoned!" Nietzsche
Buzzard
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March 15th, 2014 at 4:09:26 PM permalink
" the house edge does not include additional money bet (for example doubling in blackjack or raising in Three Card Poker) as money bet."

Does this seem right ?

As per Hold vs House edge, that's all very nice, but it's the WIN that matters to the casino.
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
Buzzard
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March 15th, 2014 at 4:24:27 PM permalink
If I play 100 hands of BJ, $100 each hand, following rules and HE

Number of decks of cards used: 1 2 4 5 6 8
Dealer hits or stands on a soft 17: Stands Hits
Player can double after a split: No Yes
Player can double on: Any first two cards 9-11 only 10-11 only
Player can resplit to: 2 3 4 hands
Player can resplit aces: No Yes
Player can hit split aces: No Yes
Player loses only original bet against dealer BJ: No Yes
Surrender rule: None Late
Blackjack pays: 3 to 2 6 to 5

Realistic HE 0.03119

What is this my expected loss ? ? ?
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
thecesspit
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March 15th, 2014 at 4:45:16 PM permalink
Quote: Buzzard

If I play 100 hands of BJ, $100 each hand, following rules and HE

Realistic HE 0.03119

What is this my expected loss ? ? ?



Assuming the house edge is 0.03119. $3.12/hand = $312 over the 100 hands.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
Buzzard
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March 15th, 2014 at 4:57:58 PM permalink
Somebody once told me
" the house edge does not include additional money bet (for example doubling in blackjack or raising in Three Card Poker) as money bet."

Would the element of risk be lower than the house edge in Blackjack ?
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
Buzzard
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March 15th, 2014 at 5:26:40 PM permalink
0.03119 % Sorry about that. I said I was math handicapped
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
AxiomOfChoice
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March 16th, 2014 at 12:19:48 PM permalink
Quote: soxfan

The gr88888888one comes through, again. You should really ditch yer regular job and make the baccarats yer fulltime gig, hey hey!



That would require him to actually be a winning player.
AxiomOfChoice
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March 16th, 2014 at 12:23:49 PM permalink
Quote: Buzzard

" the house edge does not include additional money bet (for example doubling in blackjack or raising in Three Card Poker) as money bet."

Does this seem right ?

As per Hold vs House edge, that's all very nice, but it's the WIN that matters to the casino.



It is right. It makes things a lot easier to calculate since the casino's expected win is just a percentage of the original amount bet. So if a player is flat-betting $100 and getting 60 hands per hour, they win (house edge * $100 * 60) per hour -- no need to worry about how often they are adding money to their original bet (because that's all included in the first calculation)
AxiomOfChoice
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March 16th, 2014 at 12:26:32 PM permalink
Quote: Buzzard

0.03119 % Sorry about that. I said I was math handicapped



This is basically a break-even game; I can't see a casino offering it. They are making 3c for every $100 bet. If you get 60 hands per hour, that is an average profit (for the casino) of $1.80 per hour for a black-chip player. That is not even going to pay for the guy's first free drink, never mind his comps.
treetopbuddy
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March 16th, 2014 at 12:39:27 PM permalink
Quote: soxfan

The gr88888888one comes through, again. You should really ditch yer regular job and make the baccarats yer fulltime gig, hey hey!



Hey Old Sport, if I'm not mistaken your the cool cat that has claimed big winnings in your Bac play………you must be a professional Bac player. Ho Ho
Each day is better than the next
Tanko
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March 16th, 2014 at 1:26:35 PM permalink
Quote: gr8player

I'm up at 6:30 a.m. on Thursday morning to get to work, then I leave at 5 p.m. and pick up a rental car and drive 2 1/2 to 3 hrs then check-in and buy-in...all done late that same night...so when Thursday night sessions are difficult ones, it is draining on me in every sense of the word.



Why go through all that hassle, plus expenses and six hours of driving, when you have RW twenty minutes from home?
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