Analysis Request for $1 Progressive on Crazy 4 Poker

Downstream Casino in Quapaw, OK offers a $1 Progressive side bet on its Crazy 4 Poker game by Shufflemaster. I was hoping to have a returns and break-even analysis done a la Ultimate Texas Hold-em. The pay-schedule is:

4 Aces - 100% of Progressive (Seeded at $1000)
Envy for 4 Aces - $100
4 of a Kind - Pays 300 for 1
Envy for 4 of a Kind - $25
Straight Flush - 100 for 1
3 of a Kind - 15 for 1

According to the charts, getting 4 Aces in Crazy four is more difficult than getting a Royal Flush in Ultimate Texas Hold-em so I'm expecting the break-even for this bet to be somewhere in the $27,000 range.

Hopefully this analysis will not be too time consuming. Also I'm curious to know if this progressive is offered at any other locations.

Thanks!

UncleMo

Seeded return: 0.5032166713
Each $1000 in the jackpot raises the return by 0.01846892603
Each other player raises the return by 0.007387570413
Break even: $27898 1/3
Each other player lowers the break even amount by $400

You still need to play the main game so the actual break even numbers are higher. Higher than that when you include taxes.

Hand	Pays	Combinations	Probability	Return	Envy	Envy Return
4 Aces	1000	48	0.00001846892603	0.01846892603	100	0.001846892603
Four of a kind	300	576	0.0002216271124	0.06648813372	25	0.00554067781
Straight flush	100	2072	0.0007972419737	0.07972419737	0	0
Three of a kind	15	58656	0.02256902761	0.3385354142	0	0
Loser	0	2537608	0.9763936344	0	0	0
Total		2598960	1	0.5032166713		0.007387570413

Someone else beat me to it.

Quote: miplet

Seeded return: 0.5032166713
Each $1000 in the jackpot raises the return by 0.01846892603
Each other player raises the return by 0.007387570413
Break even: $27898 1/3
Each other player lowers the break even amount by $400

You still need to play the main game so the actual break even numbers are higher. Higher than that when you include taxes.

Hand	Pays	Combinations	Probability	Return	Envy	Envy Return
4 Aces	1000	48	0.00001846892603	0.01846892603	100	0.001846892603
Four of a kind	300	576	0.0002216271124	0.06648813372	25	0.00554067781
Straight flush	100	2072	0.0007972419737	0.07972419737	0	0
Three of a kind	15	58656	0.02256902761	0.3385354142	0	0
Loser	0	2537608	0.9763936344	0	0	0
Total		2598960	1	0.5032166713		0.007387570413

Nice job, Miplet! Impressive estimate on the breakeven, UncleMo; you were right on it.

Nicely done, and so dammed fast too! Thanks for putting that together. I need to get up to speed on math concerning probabilities and the usage of Excel to calculate them.

It's a tough progressive to hit as far as Shufflemaster games go. A recent progressive paid over $44,000 to a lucky winner. As each dollar bet adds $0.125 to the jackpot meter, that's a lot of dollar bets.

Don't mean to bring this back from the dead.... But the Downstream progressive on this is currently over $41k. I played for about an hour today and got a straight flush for a nice return :)

Quote: cestanl

Don't mean to bring this back from the dead.... But the Downstream progressive on this is currently over $41k. I played for about an hour today and got a straight flush for a nice return :)

From my (limited) experience there, you were lucky to get on the game at all. The locals seem to do a total dog-in-the-manger on the game to keep transients off it, including slapping down 2nd hands on an open spot whenever someone approaches. Congrats on the SF!

Stopped by Downstream again, and the Progressive bet on Crazy 4 still hasn't hit. It's currently sitting at $55,300ish. Pretty amazing