UncleMo
UncleMo
Joined: Feb 11, 2014
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February 17th, 2014 at 4:17:01 AM permalink
Downstream Casino in Quapaw, OK offers a $1 Progressive side bet on its Crazy 4 Poker game by Shufflemaster. I was hoping to have a returns and break-even analysis done a la Ultimate Texas Hold-em. The pay-schedule is:

4 Aces - 100% of Progressive (Seeded at $1000)
Envy for 4 Aces - $100
4 of a Kind - Pays 300 for 1
Envy for 4 of a Kind - $25
Straight Flush - 100 for 1
3 of a Kind - 15 for 1

According to the charts, getting 4 Aces in Crazy four is more difficult than getting a Royal Flush in Ultimate Texas Hold-em so I'm expecting the break-even for this bet to be somewhere in the $27,000 range.

Hopefully this analysis will not be too time consuming. Also I'm curious to know if this progressive is offered at any other locations.

Thanks!

UncleMo
miplet
miplet
Joined: Dec 1, 2009
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February 17th, 2014 at 8:04:30 AM permalink
Seeded return: 0.5032166713
Each $1000 in the jackpot raises the return by 0.01846892603
Each other player raises the return by 0.007387570413
Break even: $27898 1/3
Each other player lowers the break even amount by $400

You still need to play the main game so the actual break even numbers are higher. Higher than that when you include taxes.

HandPaysCombinationsProbabilityReturnEnvyEnvy Return
4 Aces1000480.000018468926030.018468926031000.001846892603
Four of a kind3005760.00022162711240.06648813372250.00554067781
Straight flush10020720.00079724197370.0797241973700
Three of a kind15586560.022569027610.338535414200
Loser025376080.9763936344000
Total259896010.50321667130.007387570413
“Man Babes” #AxelFabulous
hwccdealer
hwccdealer
Joined: Jun 4, 2013
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February 17th, 2014 at 8:42:09 AM permalink
Someone else beat me to it.
beachbumbabs
Administrator
beachbumbabs
Joined: May 21, 2013
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February 17th, 2014 at 11:00:25 AM permalink
Quote: miplet

Seeded return: 0.5032166713
Each $1000 in the jackpot raises the return by 0.01846892603
Each other player raises the return by 0.007387570413
Break even: $27898 1/3
Each other player lowers the break even amount by $400

You still need to play the main game so the actual break even numbers are higher. Higher than that when you include taxes.

HandPaysCombinationsProbabilityReturnEnvyEnvy Return
4 Aces1000480.000018468926030.018468926031000.001846892603
Four of a kind3005760.00022162711240.06648813372250.00554067781
Straight flush10020720.00079724197370.0797241973700
Three of a kind15586560.022569027610.338535414200
Loser025376080.9763936344000
Total259896010.50321667130.007387570413



Nice job, Miplet! Impressive estimate on the breakeven, UncleMo; you were right on it.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
UncleMo
UncleMo
Joined: Feb 11, 2014
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February 17th, 2014 at 1:33:56 PM permalink
Nicely done, and so dammed fast too! Thanks for putting that together. I need to get up to speed on math concerning probabilities and the usage of Excel to calculate them.

It's a tough progressive to hit as far as Shufflemaster games go. A recent progressive paid over $44,000 to a lucky winner. As each dollar bet adds $0.125 to the jackpot meter, that's a lot of dollar bets.
cestanl
cestanl
Joined: Aug 31, 2011
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September 4th, 2015 at 4:03:10 PM permalink
Don't mean to bring this back from the dead.... But the Downstream progressive on this is currently over $41k. I played for about an hour today and got a straight flush for a nice return :)
beachbumbabs
Administrator
beachbumbabs
Joined: May 21, 2013
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September 5th, 2015 at 6:28:14 AM permalink
Quote: cestanl

Don't mean to bring this back from the dead.... But the Downstream progressive on this is currently over $41k. I played for about an hour today and got a straight flush for a nice return :)



From my (limited) experience there, you were lucky to get on the game at all. The locals seem to do a total dog-in-the-manger on the game to keep transients off it, including slapping down 2nd hands on an open spot whenever someone approaches. Congrats on the SF!
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
cestanl
cestanl
Joined: Aug 31, 2011
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September 22nd, 2015 at 12:32:19 AM permalink
Stopped by Downstream again, and the Progressive bet on Crazy 4 still hasn't hit. It's currently sitting at $55,300ish. Pretty amazing

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