Taking Advanatge of 1% Cashback on Rapid Roulette?
I watched a player betting 100 on Red and 100 on Black at the same time on each spin. (No it wasn't Varmenti, lol) I had to ask him why he was doing this. He said he was just trying to make $50 by getting the 1% cashback on the 5000 he will put in play if he lasts for 25 spins. He said he was willing to risk the 200 hoping that the 0 would not come out in the 25 spins. I tried to recommend that it would be better to just play a single color and in addition to the cashback hopefully he would win more. He said no thanks, continued on and was lucky enough for the 0 not to come out.
Looking up the stats on nope27's Blog at https://wizardofvegas.com/member/nope27/blog/ it shows that the probability of a single number coming out (at least once) in 25 spins is just under 50% at 49.59%, therefore this is a terrible bet risking 200 to make 50 on basically a coin flip.
I know there is no way to make this profitable on this negative expectation game, but for those who play roulette, how would you try to take advantage of this 1% cashback?
Quote: EdgeLooker
I watched a player betting 100 on Red and 100 on Black at the same time on each spin. (No it wasn't Varmenti, lol) I had to ask him why he was doing this. He said he was just trying to make $50 by getting the 1% cashback on the 5000 he will put in play if he lasts for 25 spins.
Many casinos don't let you bet both at once,
and they certainly wouldn't count it towards
any comps. They would count it as a non
bet. It's an old trick for a team of two to
bet opposite each other just for the comps,
and the casino will kick them out if caught.
Or at least back them off, it's a form of
cheating.
So, all your bets have a house edge of 2.7%. You get 1% back. So you are losing 1.7% in EV on every dollar you bet. If you play through $5k your expected loss is $135 - $50 cash back = a total expected loss of $85.
1.7% is a reasonable house edge for a game, but still kind of high if you are just going to bet red/black. You'd do better by going and playing baccarat with no cash back (which is another game that requires no skill).
Can you get the cash back on any other game? Or is it roulette only?
Quote: EvenBobMany casinos don't let you bet both at once,
and they certainly wouldn't count it towards
any comps. They would count it as a non
bet. It's an old trick for a team of two to
bet opposite each other just for the comps,
and the casino will kick them out if caught.
Or at least back them off, it's a form of
cheating.
Only if the people who run the casino are idiots. They should encourage you to do this. You are giving them their full house edge with greatly reduced variance.
Its an electronic video machine, although the live dealer spins a ball on an actual roulette table, the live video is displayed on the screen. The roulette table is in front of about 30 seats/video machines.
Axiom,
Its actually just the normal comps they put on the players cards here, each point is redeemable for cash or gift cards, it just happens to be 1% on this roulette game. This game also has a Random Jackpot that is paid out before it hits 1K on the meter. All players who play a minimum of 100 are eligible. When the meter hits 850 everyone races over to play.
The other games like BJ ($10 min equates to about $8 an hour in comps), Carib Stud ($10 min ante equates to about $5 an hour). But I've seen huge swings in the comps/per hour, winning some days and making 300-400 in just 10 hours, and losing big some days and getting only 50 back.
Thanks.
Quote: EdgeLooker
Its actually just the normal comps they put on the players cards here, each point is redeemable for cash or gift cards, it just happens to be 1% on this roulette game. This game also has a Random Jackpot that is paid out before it hits 1K on the meter. All players who play a minimum of 100 are eligible. When the meter hits 850 everyone races over to play.
The other games like BJ ($10 min equates to about $8 an hour in comps), Carib Stud ($10 min ante equates to about $5 an hour). But I've seen huge swings in the comps/per hour, winning some days and making 300-400 in just 10 hours, and losing big some days and getting only 50 back.
Thanks.
A minimum of $100 a spin is needed to qualify for the random jackpot? Ouch.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceOnly if the people who run the casino are idiots. They should encourage you to do this. You are giving them their full house edge with greatly reduced variance.
No kidding, try telling them that. I run into this
all the time in Vegas. An empty table and I
want to bet r/b to advance the wheel. No way,
the pit tells me, no free spins. When I tell them
the HE is exactly the same if I bet both, they
stare at me like I was from Mars. Idiots.
Quote: EdgeLookerBob,
Its an electronic video machine, although the live dealer spins a ball on an actual roulette table, .
So he's risking $200 to win $50? Sucker..
Quote: Ibeatyouraces$8 an hour in comps betting $10 a hand at bj? Where do I sign up??
2 questions...
1. Does it scale? If you bet $100/hand will you get $80/hr in comps? Will $1000/hand get you $800/hr?
2. What are the blackjack rules like? Is it real BJ or some 6:5 crap?
Quote: EdgeLooker
I know there is no way to make this profitable on this negative expectation game, but for those who play roulette, how would you try to take advantage of this 1% cashback?
The first thing is, I wouldn't.
Okay, with that out of the way:
Did you not say he had to be betting at least $100 total?
(0.50410315728 * 50) - ((1-0.50410315728) * 200) = -73.97421068
(0.25411999318*50) - ((1-0.25411999318) * 100) = -61.882001023
Since he is going to walk away on any loss, anyway, even though his supposed, "Value," is still there and he's leaving some of it on the table by walking away on a loss he would have a lower Expected Loss by simply betting $50/Red and $50/Black and hoping to go fifty spins without the zero showing up.
I still wouldn't do this, obviously, can't emphasize that enough, really.
1) Sit out most of the spins or bet low - ten dollars on black and ten on red for one out of every five spins hoping to miss the zero.
2) Whenever a zero hit, I would make the one hundred vs one hundred dollars spin. Sine this is single zero roulette chances of a back to back zero are slim although certainly possible.
3) Use two machines and two different players cards. If your casino is strict about using two separate accounts, make a deal with a friend to come in. Bet one card black and the other red so it looks like you are really gambling!!! This works on e-games.
4) Once both cards have the cash back that's one-hundred dollars in your pocket instead of just 50.
5) this should trigger some good comps. Even though you sat out 1 out of 5 spins you will have logged several hours and time is a big factor.
6) grab the free-play offers made to you next month when they rate your couple thousand dollars/several hours worth of play. If your two cards get $20 bucks two times a week, that can add up to $80 in free-play a week, over three hundred in a month and depending on your casino's comps system, you may get more. Also, some comps systems last for more than just one month. Add it all up and you now have positive expectation on this scenario.
Quote: darkozIf I was going to take advantage of this I would do the following.
2) Whenever a zero hit, I would make the one hundred vs one hundred dollars spin. Sine this is single zero roulette chances of a back to back zero are slim although certainly possible.
hahaha! Martingale! I actually like it (if for no other reason other than the impending doom)
Quote:6) grab the free-play offers made to you next month when they rate your couple thousand dollars/several hours worth of play. If your two cards get $20 bucks two times a week, that can add up to $80 in free-play a week, over three hundred in a month and depending on your casino's comps system, you may get more. Also, some comps systems last for more than just one month. Add it all up and you now have positive expectation on this scenario.
That part (positive expectation) seems unlikely. This is a machine so they know exactly how much you bet (this is like coin-in with slots) and the know exactly what the theoretical is. Presumably they are not dumb enough to give you more than your expected loss back in free stuff.
Quote: darkozIf I was going to take advantage of this I would do the following.
1) Sit out most of the spins or bet low - ten dollars on black and ten on red for one out of every five spins hoping to miss the zero.
2) Whenever a zero hit, I would make the one hundred vs one hundred dollars spin. Sine this is single zero roulette chances of a back to back zero are slim although certainly possible.
1 in 37, to be precise. Exactly the same as getting any other number after a zero.
This is what I was talking about Bob. Some day I will explain what they are doing to you.Quote: EvenBobSo he's risking $200 to win $50? Sucker..
I suggested he take the chance that after the ball has landed in the zero pocket, he bet big for one spin then go back small regardless of win or loss until he's reached his goal of fifty dollars cashback. Hardly a martingale.
Quote: darkozAxiom - that is not a martingale. I am not suggesting betting double the loss until a win is achieved.
I suggested he take the chance that after the ball has landed in the zero pocket, he bet big for one spin then go back small regardless of win or loss until he's reached his goal of fifty dollars cashback. Hardly a martingale.
Oh. Well that's a lot less fun.
What's the point of the one-spin bet increase?
Quote: AxelWolfThis is what I was talking about Bob. Some day I will explain what they are doing to you.
Making sucker bets? That takes a lot of brainpower.
Quote: darkozThe OP was trying to make it through 25 spins at 100 dollars on black and 100 dollars on red so that he could get $50 in cashback which would be total profit IF he didn't hit a zero. So after each zero(if he skipped the spin, he would lose nothing or if it was on a ten dollar bet he lost $20 bucks,) he would take the big gamble in the hopes the zero was not a repeater.
So, you think that, once a zero has come up, the chances of the next number being a zero are less than usual?
That's completely wrong. If it was true you could easily beat roulette.
Individually, each spin has the same chances of the zero occurring. If you bet red and black 25 times (each time after a zero had just spun) I doubt you would hit a zero as often as if you just spun 25 spins straight.
Yes, it will happen, but the losses would be made back from the comps
Quote: darkozIf you bet red and black 25 times (each time after a zero had just spun) I doubt you would hit a zero as often as if you just spun 25 spins straight.
I understand that you think that. That's why you're wrong.
Quote:Individually, each spin has the same chances of the zero occurring.
This sentence...
Quote:If you bet red and black 25 times (each time after a zero had just spun) I doubt you would hit a zero as often as if you just spun 25 spins straight.
and this sentence cannot both be true, can it? That's an error you are making in your logic there.
The chances of you making through 25 spins at 37:1 odds means you should hit a zero once or twice during a session and sometimes not at all.
If you are betting ten dollars on red with (lets say Axioms card) and 10 on black with Cesspits card then they can expect to lose $20 whenever the zero hits or nothing if it is one of their skipped spins. Total game time to pass 25 zeros is at least a few hours. I would be suspicious if the zero popped up 25 times within sixty minutes.
Each time the zero pops up you make a 100 dollar bet on red(Axiom) and a $100 bet on Black(Cesspit).
Assuming the worst(you hit the zero three times after a zero just hit) then you've lost six hundred bucks but on average you will only get hit with the zero one time or none at all. If none, total loss is zero. (Obviously Axiom and Cesspit are partners here and are refunding each other on the red and black decisions)
Meanwhile EACH of you has been credited with hours of play plus at least $2,500 in bets(actually more because those $10 bets have also added up.
You each get $50 in cash back and future comps.
If you made it through the twenty five large spins without hitting a zero you get 100% profit from the cashback and future comps. If not, deduct the losses and you will see you still have made a profit more times than if you simply gambed $100 a spin for 25 spins without betting against each other.
Quote: darkozIf not, deduct the losses and you will see you still have made a profit more times than if you simply gambed $100 a spin for 25 spins without betting against each other.
You are making $5000 worth of bets at a 2.7% house edge. Your expected loss is $135 no matter how you structure the bets or how many spins you skip.
You can certainly structure things so that you are ahead more often than not, but in exchange for doing this you will lose more when you do lose.
If the goal is just to be ahead more often than not, simply bet $145 on all but two numbers. You will have $5075 in total action, and 35 times out of 37 (almost 95% of the time!) you will end up ahead $145, in addition to the $50.75 you get in comps.
But the discussion seems to have missed this part that was mentioned in a follow-up comment:
Quote: EdgeLookerThis game also has a Random Jackpot that is paid out before it hits 1K on the meter. All players who play a minimum of 100 are eligible. When the meter hits 850 everyone races over to play.
Clearly it's profitable at some jackpot level, but we would need more information.
I would add to my strategy attempting to play near the 850 mark to maximize my return.
As for betting $145 on all but two numbers that would be ridiculous. You are risking 5K+ in a single spin. You receive very little to no credit for such a gamble for future comps as you spent almost no time at the table.
To me risking 5 gees is ludicrous when you can stretch it out. I see no one losing 5K in a single session my way. The zero would have to be a repeater 25 straight times. You can say its possible but so is the sun going supernova tomorrow. I wouldn't bet on it though.
Quote: darkozGood point Gpac _ did miss that.
I would add to my strategy attempting to play near the 850 mark to maximize my return.
As for betting $145 on all but two numbers that would be ridiculous. You are risking 5K+ in a single spin. You receive very little to no credit for such a gamble for future comps as you spent almost no time at the table.
To me risking 5 gees is ludicrous when you can stretch it out. I see no one losing 5K in a single session my way. The zero would have to be a repeater 25 straight times. You can say its possible but so is the sun going supernova tomorrow. I wouldn't bet on it though.
Time at table doesn't matter at machines. Its only the amount you actually wager.
If you take one spin at e-roulette for 10 grand and leave you will not get comped as well as if you gambled $100 for 100 spins.
Quote: AxiomOfChoice2 questions...
1. Does it scale? If you bet $100/hand will you get $80/hr in comps? Will $1000/hand get you $800/hr?
2. What are the blackjack rules like? Is it real BJ or some 6:5 crap?
1. On my next trip out, I'll get the exact numbers for the 10 minimum and 100 minimum. I won't know about anything higher-, way above my level.
2. 8D, S17, DAS, RSA, LS, 3/2, pen is 5/8 62.5%
Quote: EdgeLooker1. On my next trip out, I'll get thee exact numbers for the 10 minimum and 100 minimum. I won't know about anything higher-, way above my level.
2. 8D, S17, DAS, RSA, LS, 3/2, pen is 5/8 62.5%
If you're interested, and they really give you 0.8 bets/hr in comps, you can probably milk this. Especially at a slow shoe game if you play at a full table. It's boring though... a lot like work.
According to the Wizard's house edge calculator, it's only 0.3%. Even if you don't count, at a full table you might get in 60 hands per hour? Less? That's only 0.18 bets per hour of expected loss.
That comp rate seems really high for blackjack, though. Isn't the standard for them to comp you back 30% of your expected losses? How badly do you have to play to lose 2.7% at this game?
