Worst sidebet on a table game?
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So any sidebets that are worse?
Quote: 100xOddsFirebet in Craps has a 20% house edge. And I thought the Big Wheel (https://wizardofodds.com/games/big-six/) at 19% HE was bad!
So any sidebets that are worse?
Yeah, there's (I think it's called) Lucky Ladies that's 24%; might have the name wrong, but it's a BJ sidebet that stays just under the Nevada restriction of 25% HE.
https://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/appendix/5/
At the MGM Grand in Detroit is a sidebet similar to Fire Bet, though no specific points are required just based on total PL wins before seven-out, the HE on $1 bet is 27.1883%. The Max win may be $5,000, and if so, the HE on a $100 bet would be 49.22%.
Sharp Shooter (Same Source) is based on Points made with a HE of 21.87%.
Replay, at Boulder Station (Same Source, report based on 2010) is a bet made that involves making any specific point three or more times before Seven-Out. One could theoretically, "Win," more than once in a hand, but only the highest win is paid. The House Edge is 24.79%.
Twice as Nice is at an unknown casino in Biloxi, must throw any specific pair twice before a Seven, HE is 29.4%.
Quote: IbeatyouracesOverall, probably the dollar jackpot progressives at their beginning seeds, i.e. TCP ($1000), Caribbean Stud ($10,000), etc.
Even the average meter on Caribbean Stud is worse than 24% edge at least in most jurisdictions. It's 29% usually, making it barely legal in Missouri (max house edge on table game bets is 30% there; 20% for slots/VP).
http://www.mikohn.net/manuales/tables/Doc01.pdf
Quote: Ibeatyouraces
Before the Fire Bets came along on craps, Motorcity ran a promotion a few times where if you threw all six points before a seven out, it paid $4000 to the shooter. No side bet required.
That's a cool promo, the EV of that on an initial Pass Line bet is:
0.000162434749269826 * 4000 = 0.64973899707
The Expected Loss on a $5 Pass Line bet is:
5 * .0141 = .0705
Therefore:
0.64973899707/.0141 = 46.081
It would seem that any initial Pass Line bet of $46.081, or less, would be an advantage play.
However, in order to succeed, at least six negative expectation bets must be made and likely more.
How do you guys look at this? Should the EV be based upon the initial Pass Line bet, (if a Point is made successfully prior to a Seven-Out, and the shooter does not bet more on the Pass Line on any subsequent attempt, then the shooter cannot lose money, overall, with exception to Crap numbers on the CO) or should the EV be based on the total (average) number of Pass Line bets that will be made per attempt?
Quote: WThe Three Faces bet pays 16 to 1 and wins if the dealer has three face cards. The probability of winning is 1.00% and the house edge is 83.08% (ouch!).
http://wizardofmacau.com/games/threecardbaccarat.html
in the short term they tend to have more skewness, i ran the exact numbers for let it ride in another post.
the $1 "sucker bet" has a u=-.22 sd=29.0
the $5 main bet has u=-.18 sd=27.8
or for 900 hands..
the $1 "sucker bet" has a u=-198 sd=870
the $5 main bet has u=-162 sd=834
--
to answer the question though, doing a side bet where the payout could exceed the maximum table payout would be terrible.
Quote: beachbumbabsYeah, there's (I think it's called) Lucky Ladies that's 24%; might have the name wrong, but it's a BJ sidebet that stays just under the Nevada restriction of 25% HE.
Would it surprise you to know that Lucky Ladies is countable and profitable?
LL is my favorite. High counts = large bet in circle + large sidebet. It does get pretty obvious when I'm catching a suited 20 every time I put a $5/$10 bet out though.
-1 insurance
Receive:
2000 for a Royal Flush
1000 for a Straight Flush
300 for a Four of a Kind
100 for a Full house
Otherwise, even straight or flush loses
Almost 80% of house edge
Hit five numbers twice last weekend for $5,000 in pays and probably spent $300 on it.
Last night where the table max is $5 hit four numbers for $125 and it was on the fourth shooter -- so total outlay was $20.
Sure I've had weekends when I never even saw a four number payoff, but in 2013 I saw five-number payoffs five times, in 2012 I didn't keep track but since the Fire Bet started I've seen two 6-number payoffs -- one for $5,000 and one for $10,000.
Yeah, it's a bad bet... but people win bad bets.
On the other hand betting max odds is a wonderful bet, and I have a friend who dumped $20,000 one night taking 100x odds (when it was available) playing at Casino Royale, and I have another friend who lost I don't know how much because he wouldn't tell me, making 1000X odds bets at the Riviera one weekend when they had it.
Quote:AlanMendelson
Sure I've had weekends when I never even saw a four number payoff, but in 2013 I saw five-number payoffs five times, in 2012 I didn't keep track but since the Fire Bet started I've seen two 6-number payoffs -- one for $5,000 and one for $10,000.
Yeah, it's a bad bet... but people win bad bets.
When playing craps this is a statement that will make you money if you are betting those bad bet!
Yeah, it's a bad bet... but people win bad bets
Just ask one of your friendly dealers how many times they see a 4, or 5 point fire bet hit, there are times that the shooters are killing that bet and nobody is betting it.
Quote:Mission146
Replay, at Boulder Station (Same Source, report based on 2010) is a bet made that involves making any specific point three or more times before Seven-Out. One could theoretically, "Win," more than once in a hand, but only the highest win is paid. The House Edge is 24.79%.
I loved this bet before they took it out of BS, they still have it at The Orleans, the problem there is you can never find a table that isnt full!
Quote:AlanMendelson
On the other hand betting max odds is a wonderful bet, and I have a friend who dumped $20,000 one night taking 100x odds (when it was available) playing at Casino Royale, and I have another friend who lost I don't know how much because he wouldn't tell me, making 1000X odds bets at the Riviera one weekend when they had it.
From what Ive been told, they now have 20 x odds at Casino Royale!
...
Quote: superrick
Just ask one of your friendly dealers how many times they see a 4, or 5 point fire bet hit, there are times that the shooters are killing that bet and nobody is betting it.
A couple of weeks ago at Caesars I walk up to an empty table and start to chat with the dealers. They told me how about an hour earlier one shooter made all six numbers... but NO ONE was on the Fire Bet. Yet... and this is the funny part... several players took out their cell phones to snap photos of the six lamers on the felt showing that all six numbers were hit.
So a dealer asks, "why are you taking the photo when no one bet it?"
Last time at Caesars when I hit 5 numbers on the fire bet I was the only player who made a fire bet. After I hit the five numbers, every player at the table was making fire bets... and there were no more winners.
Quote: AlanMendelsonA couple of weeks ago at Caesars I walk up to an empty table and start to chat with the dealers. They told me how about an hour earlier one shooter made all six numbers... but NO ONE was on the Fire Bet. Yet... and this is the funny part... several players took out their cell phones to snap photos of the six lamers on the felt showing that all six numbers were hit.
So a dealer asks, "why are you taking the photo when no one bet it?"
Last time at Caesars when I hit 5 numbers on the fire bet I was the only player who made a fire bet. After I hit the five numbers, every player at the table was making fire bets... and there were no more winners.
Do the tables go through the trouble to mark with lamers if no one bets the fire?
Quote: petroglyphDo the tables go through the trouble to mark with lamers if no one bets the fire?
Yes.
Does the dealer on the side of the table without any players move the puck to the point? Of course he does.
Quote: AlanMendelsonYes.
Does the dealer on the side of the table without any players move the puck to the point? Of course he does.
Wasn't sure Alan. I guess I was thinking of the ATS bet where if no one was betting it they didn't mark all the numbers rolled, but that would require the box person doing something.
I just didn't know. They don't have the fire in Laughlin and removed the ATS.
I have come to tables on a come out roll and seeing a lamer or two tells me it's too late for the fire bet for this shooter. Imagine a dispute that could erupt if there were no lamer and a new player came to the table after a point had been made.
Putting the lamer on the point(s) made tells new players "too late" so there can't be a dispute.
Congrats on your recent win!
Did you hit any horns on the co's?
Quote: 1BBWould it surprise you to know that Lucky Ladies is countable and profitable?
No, because I read it here that it was both! Gotta love this forum.
That reason doesn't work. Many casinos do not allow Fire bets after the first roll, even if that first roll is not a point.Quote: AlanMendelsonThere is a very practical reason for marking the fire bets as they hit: if a new player comes to the table he can see that the fire bet is already in play.
I have come to tables on a come out roll and seeing a lamer or two tells me it's too late for the fire bet for this shooter. Imagine a dispute that could erupt if there were no lamer and a new player came to the table after a point had been made.
Putting the lamer on the point(s) made tells new players "too late" so there can't be a dispute.
The real reason is much more basic. Procedure. Habit. Rules.
And particularly for new players who have never seen the Fire Bet. When they see the markers, they might ask what it's for.
Quote: DJTeddyBearThat reason doesn't work. Many casinos do not allow Fire bets after the first roll, even if that first roll is not a point.
The real reason is much more basic. Procedure. Habit. Rules.
And particularly for new players who have never seen the Fire Bet. When they see the markers, they might ask what it's for.
Even better, they want EVERYONE to know when it hits, even if no one bet on it. Dealers can say "hey look at that, y'all would have just won 250-1 if you had put your money down at the beginning...so sad..."
