Ask the W : Pai Gow Poker
Thread Rating:
November 22nd, 2013 at 7:42:10 AM
permalink
https://wizardofodds.com/ask-the-wizard/282/
the PGP question: I have to assume this is about somehow knowing what your first card is going to be before you place your bet?
the PGP question: I have to assume this is about somehow knowing what your first card is going to be before you place your bet?
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
November 22nd, 2013 at 7:50:46 AM
permalink
deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
November 22nd, 2013 at 7:51:18 AM
permalink
Quote: odiousgambitI have to assume this is about somehow knowing what your first card is going to be before you place your bet?
It is. You can see why Eliot asked here.
Last edited by: unnamed administrator on Aug 7, 2024
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
November 22nd, 2013 at 6:05:50 PM
permalink
Quote: WizardIt is. You can see why Eliot asked here.
Aha!
Quote:two of the industry’s best, Charles Mousseau and Michael Shackleford
If not allowed to bet more than a player did in his own hand on the Dragon hand, seems to me it would be possible to, say, bet 8X the minimum in one's own hand, then vary the dragon bet with either the minimum or 8X the minimum "depending" and still have an advantage play - player would need a respectable bankroll. Or no?
Last edited by: unnamed administrator on Aug 7, 2024
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
November 22nd, 2013 at 6:23:18 PM
permalink
My question is how often could you hole card this? Was it easy?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
November 22nd, 2013 at 6:27:07 PM
permalink
The way I would play it is if I saw a joker or ace then bet the full amount of my primary hand, and if not, bet nothing on the dragon. There will be a joker or ace 5/53 = 9.43% of the time. The expected win in such hands is .1608 units. So, the expected win on the Dragon per Ante bet is (5/53)*0.1608 = 0.0152. That is not enough to overcome the house edge of 2.73% on my primary hand.
However, if I'm going to play pai gow poker anyway, this would be a good way to cut down the overall house edge.
However, if I'm going to play pai gow poker anyway, this would be a good way to cut down the overall house edge.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
November 22nd, 2013 at 7:02:23 PM
permalink
deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
November 22nd, 2013 at 7:10:29 PM
permalink
Only reason I ask is because I will often hear of someone who claims to be hole carding. MY EYES GET BIG and I think WOW. I rarely see this opportunity any more. Admittedly I don't spend a lot of time looking. 10 min later they are asking to borrow money. I'm like WTF ...How do you not have a ton of money while hole carding? The truth comes out, they MAY see one in a blue moon.
After this information, I think I will spend more time looking at pai gow
After this information, I think I will spend more time looking at pai gow
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
November 22nd, 2013 at 7:11:07 PM
permalink
I just played Pai Gow at the Orleans yesterday and it had Dragon Hand. Not only that, but it was a very low sit down table I was on. I'm pretty sure I could have seen some hole cards. Wish I would have known...
ZCore13
ZCore13
I am an employee of a Casino. Former Table Games Director,, current Pit Supervisor. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
November 22nd, 2013 at 7:11:49 PM
permalink
The play is basically dead now. It was a great play for a few years.
Happy days are here again
November 22nd, 2013 at 7:14:41 PM
permalink
How can you not know? if you can see hole cards certainly, you would know there had to be some kind an opportunity. I just figured they would be protecting it more. Do you remeber the dealers name? PM please, can you Edit out name of casino please?Quote: Zcore13I just played Pai Gow at the Orleans yesterday and it had Dragon Hand. Not only that, but it was a very low sit down table I was on. I'm pretty sure I could have seen some hole cards. Wish I would have known...
ZCore13
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
November 22nd, 2013 at 7:23:19 PM
permalink
I had always just heard there was no advantage to be had by hole carding Pai Gow so trying to see a card was no real interest to me. I'm just thinking back now and thinking about how low I felt sitting down and that the dealer chair seemed a little high.
I never played the Dragon Hand, but other did, so I'm pretty sure they only allow a bet equal to the original on the Dragon Hand, so there is no advantage to be had. But since I would play anyway, any reduction in house advantage given for free I would take...
ZCore13
I never played the Dragon Hand, but other did, so I'm pretty sure they only allow a bet equal to the original on the Dragon Hand, so there is no advantage to be had. But since I would play anyway, any reduction in house advantage given for free I would take...
ZCore13
I am an employee of a Casino. Former Table Games Director,, current Pit Supervisor. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
November 22nd, 2013 at 8:10:58 PM
permalink
deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
November 24th, 2013 at 12:35:13 PM
permalink
I am proud to have published the analysis of this advantage play, with big thanks to Charles, Mike and the surveillance director who told me about it. Both Mike and Charles were all over this question within a few hours of my asking for some help.Quote: HunterhillThe play is basically dead now. It was a great play for a few years.
Hole-carding the Dragon hand is still a valid play at any game that allows players to make a larger wager on the Dragon hand than on their main hand. Surely there must still be a few of these opportunities out there from time to time.
Are there any current plays going on against Pai Gow Poker of this magnitude?
Climate Casino: https://climatecasino.net/climate-casino/
November 24th, 2013 at 12:47:49 PM
permalink
Quote: teliotSurely there must still be a few of these opportunities out there from time to time.
I bet there are some casinos outside the US that the news of this play hasn't arrived to yet. For one thing, the Palma Real in San Jose, Costa Rica, had several tables of it, and they were heavily played by local Asian players.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
November 24th, 2013 at 1:00:21 PM
permalink
Ya and let's keep it that way.Quote: WizardI bet there are some casinos outside the US that the news of this play hasn't arrived to yet. For one thing, the Palma Real in San Jose, Costa Rica, had several tables of it, and they were heavily played by local Asian players.
Happy days are here again
November 24th, 2013 at 1:11:31 PM
permalink
Quote: WizardI bet there are some casinos outside the US that the news of this play hasn't arrived to yet. For one thing, the Palma Real in San Jose, Costa Rica, had several tables of it, and they were heavily played by local Asian players.
I guarantee you there are some in the U.S. I have talked to many Tribal Table Games Managers and most have no motivation or interest in learning about these types of things. Some, even to this day, would not know a hole carder or side bet count if it punched them in the nose. Las Vegas is a whole different world than your average Tribal Casino.
ZCore13
I am an employee of a Casino. Former Table Games Director,, current Pit Supervisor. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
November 24th, 2013 at 1:16:22 PM
permalink
No.Quote: odiousgambitIf not allowed to bet more than a player did in his own hand on the Dragon hand, seems to me it would be possible to, say, bet 8X the minimum in one's own hand, then vary the dragon bet with either the minimum or 8X the minimum "depending" and still have an advantage play - player would need a respectable bankroll. Or no?
Climate Casino: https://climatecasino.net/climate-casino/
November 25th, 2013 at 11:28:02 AM
permalink
Quote: teliotAre there any current plays going on against Pai Gow Poker of this magnitude?
Why would you even ask this here? I'm all for spreading information and breaking new ground mathematically, and I don't hold you up as some kind of demon as many APs do, but why would expect that anyone who knew about one of these plays would disclose it here, on the public internet, to you?
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
November 25th, 2013 at 11:36:40 AM
permalink
Yes, of course, but there is some humor in asking the question.Quote: AcesAndEightsWhy would you even ask this here? I'm all for spreading information and breaking new ground mathematically, and I don't hold you up as some kind of demon as many APs do, but why would expect that anyone who knew about one of these plays would disclose it here, on the public internet, to you?
Climate Casino: https://climatecasino.net/climate-casino/
