TCP - House edge
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October 27th, 2013 at 4:10:06 AM
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Can anyone tell me the house edge for this three card poker game?
The game is played with Thai baht currency.
The anti bet is minimum 100 baht to maximum 2,000 baht.
The back bet must be equal to the anti if the player decides to carry on.
The Dealer needs Queen and eight or higher to qualify and if not pays anti only.
winning hands are paid the following for the back bet(anti paid 1 to 1);
one pair or less: 1 to 1 (even money)
flush: 2 to 1
straight 3 to 1
three of a kind 5 to 1
straight flush 10 to 1
royal flush 100 to 1
there is no cap on wins.
Also i would like to know if the dealer qualifies with just a Queen instead of queen & eight would this affect the house edge by much?
Also there is a 25 baht side bet which pays the amounts below(the 25 baht bet is taken even when winning). The top three progressive Jackpots can be won by combining the players and dealers cards in any order. e.g. player could have ace and jack of hearts and a 3 of diamonds and the dealer queen, king and 10 of hearts and the player will win the 5 card royal flush.
straight flush(6 cards) progressive jackpot starting at 400,000 baht
royal flush(5 cards) progressive jackpot starting at 80,000 baht
straight flush(5 cards) wins progressive jackpot starting at 8,000 baht
royal flush(players 3 cards) wins 4,000 baht
straight flush(players 3 cards) wins: 1,500 baht
Three of a kind(players 3 cards) wins: 1,500 baht
Thanks
Thanks
The game is played with Thai baht currency.
The anti bet is minimum 100 baht to maximum 2,000 baht.
The back bet must be equal to the anti if the player decides to carry on.
The Dealer needs Queen and eight or higher to qualify and if not pays anti only.
winning hands are paid the following for the back bet(anti paid 1 to 1);
one pair or less: 1 to 1 (even money)
flush: 2 to 1
straight 3 to 1
three of a kind 5 to 1
straight flush 10 to 1
royal flush 100 to 1
there is no cap on wins.
Also i would like to know if the dealer qualifies with just a Queen instead of queen & eight would this affect the house edge by much?
Also there is a 25 baht side bet which pays the amounts below(the 25 baht bet is taken even when winning). The top three progressive Jackpots can be won by combining the players and dealers cards in any order. e.g. player could have ace and jack of hearts and a 3 of diamonds and the dealer queen, king and 10 of hearts and the player will win the 5 card royal flush.
straight flush(6 cards) progressive jackpot starting at 400,000 baht
royal flush(5 cards) progressive jackpot starting at 80,000 baht
straight flush(5 cards) wins progressive jackpot starting at 8,000 baht
royal flush(players 3 cards) wins 4,000 baht
straight flush(players 3 cards) wins: 1,500 baht
Three of a kind(players 3 cards) wins: 1,500 baht
Thanks
Thanks
October 27th, 2013 at 7:20:56 AM
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andrew,
The house edge would vary greatly depending on how many decks are used. This looks like it must be a multideck shoe game. Do you know how many decks they were using?
Queen eight instead of just a Queen is pretty significant, math-wise, I think. There must have been a low HE for them to need the 8 as well, on a total guess in the range of .8 to 1.2 difference.
I like the sidebet very much. It's quite similar in form and payout to the 6 card sidebet Harrah's is playing called something like the million dollar diamond, except that it also pays some 3 card hands.
The house edge would vary greatly depending on how many decks are used. This looks like it must be a multideck shoe game. Do you know how many decks they were using?
Queen eight instead of just a Queen is pretty significant, math-wise, I think. There must have been a low HE for them to need the 8 as well, on a total guess in the range of .8 to 1.2 difference.
I like the sidebet very much. It's quite similar in form and payout to the 6 card sidebet Harrah's is playing called something like the million dollar diamond, except that it also pays some 3 card hands.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
October 27th, 2013 at 8:30:42 AM
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Beachbumbabs,
It's a 1 deck game.
Yes i think the side bet will make this game popular. Similar to a slot Jackpot.
My concern is the regular bets.
If the house edge is too much the customers might sense they are losing money too fast and switch to a different game.
It's a 1 deck game.
Yes i think the side bet will make this game popular. Similar to a slot Jackpot.
My concern is the regular bets.
If the house edge is too much the customers might sense they are losing money too fast and switch to a different game.
October 27th, 2013 at 9:27:23 AM
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With a Q82 qualifying dealer hand, I calculate a house edge of 1.3210%.
With a Q32 qualifying dealer hand, I calculate a player edge of 1.9452%.
I did not analyze the side bet.
With a Q32 qualifying dealer hand, I calculate a player edge of 1.9452%.
I did not analyze the side bet.
October 27th, 2013 at 10:25:12 AM
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Quote: JBWith a Q82 qualifying dealer hand, I calculate a house edge of 1.3210%.
With a Q32 qualifying dealer hand, I calculate a player edge of 1.9452%.
I did not analyze the side bet.
Wow. I was too low by 2.0662%, but I was basing the guess on a 6 to 8 deck shoe, which I think would have been worth around 1% of that. thanks JB! I gotta learn how to do that. I'm almost there.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
October 27th, 2013 at 10:28:34 AM
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Thanks JB,
Are the following odds correct?
6 card straight flush: 565,513 to 1
5 card royal Flush: 110,643 to 1
5 card straight flush: 12,293 to 1
3 card royal flush: 5,524 to 1
3 card straight flush: 459 to 1
three of a kind: 424 to 1
Are the following odds correct?
6 card straight flush: 565,513 to 1
5 card royal Flush: 110,643 to 1
5 card straight flush: 12,293 to 1
3 card royal flush: 5,524 to 1
3 card straight flush: 459 to 1
three of a kind: 424 to 1
October 28th, 2013 at 10:09:58 AM
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Can anyone analyse the side bet?
October 28th, 2013 at 10:34:17 AM
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This game will open 1 November in a Casino 9,000 miles from Vegas.
Two tables to start.
I will let everyone know how it performs end of November.
Giddy up!
Two tables to start.
I will let everyone know how it performs end of November.
Giddy up!
October 28th, 2013 at 11:23:38 AM
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Quote: andrew888Thanks JB,
Are the following odds correct?
6 card straight flush: 565,513 to 1
5 card royal Flush: 110,643 to 1
5 card straight flush: 12,293 to 1
3 card royal flush: 5,524 to 1
3 card straight flush: 459 to 1
three of a kind: 424 to 1
Assuming you only get paid on the highest winner:
| Hand | Combos | Probability | 1 in | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 card sf | 720 | 0.000001768301429 | 565513.4444444445 | |
| 5 royal | 3680 | 0.000009037985079 | 110643.13043478261 | |
| 5 card sf | 32480 | 0.000079770042223 | 12535.03448275862 | |
| 3 card royal | 73692 | 0.000180985651216 | 5524.299896868045 | |
| 3 card sf | 810516 | 0.001990606389855 | 501.35948457525825 | |
| 3 of a kind | 958048 | 0.002352941176471 | 424.00000000000006 | |
| Nothing | 405291264 | 0.995384890453726 | ||
| Total | 407170400 | 1 | 215.67958040290856 |
Your 5 card straight flushes is off because for most of the straight flushes,the 6th card can only be 1 of 45 cards (exclude 5 in the straight flush and 1 higher and 1 lower),or it will make a 6 card straight flush.
same problem with 3 card straight flush: I thinkyou are only exluding the dealer having a lower straight flush,but in most cases there are 4 possible dealer hands that will make a 6 card straight flush.....ooopps forgot the 5 card straight flushes,. back to Excell I go. (see even I missed that one)
“Man Babes” #AxelFabulous
October 28th, 2013 at 11:31:43 AM
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Miplet,
Yes you only get paid on the highest winner.
Thanks.
Yes you only get paid on the highest winner.
Thanks.
October 28th, 2013 at 11:34:46 AM
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I edited my post. 3 card straight flushes and 3 card Royal flushes are both wrong. It will be a while to fix.
“Man Babes” #AxelFabulous
October 29th, 2013 at 5:06:09 AM
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Much appreciated.
October 29th, 2013 at 9:44:30 AM
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One more question. Last i promise.
If i reduce payment for a flush from 2 to 1 to even money how much will that increase the house edge?
Thanks
If i reduce payment for a flush from 2 to 1 to even money how much will that increase the house edge?
Thanks
October 29th, 2013 at 11:42:53 AM
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"Tre Card Stud" actually exists in a casino?
I "Asked the Wizard" about that game once, and I had never even played the game in the casino. It was the only question he didn't answer when I asked him a question (I asked about 4 total maybe). Looking back, I don't blame him though. The game definitely failed in the US.
I "Asked the Wizard" about that game once, and I had never even played the game in the casino. It was the only question he didn't answer when I asked him a question (I asked about 4 total maybe). Looking back, I don't blame him though. The game definitely failed in the US.
October 29th, 2013 at 11:48:40 AM
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DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
October 29th, 2013 at 11:59:51 AM
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Quote: IbeatyouracesI submitted about Two Way Monte when it appeared at MGM Detroit but no answer either. Most likey due to it only being here and not main stream. Oddly though it is discussed in Beyond Counting CAA.
I wish I could apologize for all the worthy questions I've never answered. Back then my Email for public questions was very buggy, and a lot just got lost.
When I get asked about obscure games, especially if they are outside of Vegas, I usually reply that I will take more of an interest once the game as several placements, or makes it to Vegas.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
October 29th, 2013 at 12:07:24 PM
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DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
October 29th, 2013 at 12:12:05 PM
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Quote: IbeatyouracesYou don't have to apologize for anything. Its totally understandable especially given the circumstances of these games/situations.
I agree. I'm sure you had to shun a lot of questions away, or you would have had no life....lol
October 29th, 2013 at 12:43:33 PM
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DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
October 29th, 2013 at 12:49:04 PM
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I am not sure what you guys are on about. I am opening a new game in Asia in a few days. I have introduced several games in Casinos in the past. This game is different because we made the rules ourselves. We decided to have three Jackpots for a three card poker game and the idea came from slot Jackpots.
I would like to get some help because i am not a mathematician. I think the game is ready to go as is but some of my managers are concerned that the house edge is not enough.
I need help with the Math.
If I can contact The Wizard or one of his guys to help me that would be great. I can send some cash. For this game i don't have much time as i am committed to opening 1 November.
If we can communicate by email i don't have to expose my lack of mathematical ability.
Andrew
I would like to get some help because i am not a mathematician. I think the game is ready to go as is but some of my managers are concerned that the house edge is not enough.
I need help with the Math.
If I can contact The Wizard or one of his guys to help me that would be great. I can send some cash. For this game i don't have much time as i am committed to opening 1 November.
If we can communicate by email i don't have to expose my lack of mathematical ability.
Andrew
October 29th, 2013 at 1:02:25 PM
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Well, a lot of your rules for your base game are very similar to a copyrighted game in the united states called "Tre Card Stud", particularly the question on the Q-8 qualifier. It was originally owned by Mikohn, and then bought by Shufflemaster (SHFL).
http://www.mikohn.net/manuales/tables/Doc01.pdf
http://www.gamingtoday.com/articles/article/17439-Questions_about_Tre_Card_Stud_Poker
In your country, it's doubtful it's a copyright issue, but just an FYI.
http://www.mikohn.net/manuales/tables/Doc01.pdf
http://www.gamingtoday.com/articles/article/17439-Questions_about_Tre_Card_Stud_Poker
In your country, it's doubtful it's a copyright issue, but just an FYI.
October 29th, 2013 at 1:11:34 PM
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Ok i will check the links in the morning. The idea came from one of my shift managers. He is Malaysian, clever guy and for sure he has never seen that data. We do not have government oversight and we are free thinkers. The Q8 question came from me after reading the Wizards website. I was trying to manipulate the house edge.
October 30th, 2013 at 6:54:31 PM
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andrew,
With the 1.3 HE mentioned earlier, your game falls a little tighter than 6:5 blackjack, much tighter than 3 card poker or let it ride, larger HE than 3:2 blackjack, baccarat, or pai gow poker. Seems like that's a reasonable place to be for both the casino and the players. Single deck, it should deal at 45-50 hands per hour; not too bad a drain on them. JMHO. Good luck on Friday; hope it works for you (I suppose that's tomorrow, now, with the International Date Line.)
With the 1.3 HE mentioned earlier, your game falls a little tighter than 6:5 blackjack, much tighter than 3 card poker or let it ride, larger HE than 3:2 blackjack, baccarat, or pai gow poker. Seems like that's a reasonable place to be for both the casino and the players. Single deck, it should deal at 45-50 hands per hour; not too bad a drain on them. JMHO. Good luck on Friday; hope it works for you (I suppose that's tomorrow, now, with the International Date Line.)
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
October 30th, 2013 at 7:10:13 PM
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Quote: beachbumbabsandrew,
With the 1.3 HE mentioned earlier, your game falls a little tighter than 6:5 blackjack, much tighter than 3 card poker or let it ride, larger HE than 3:2 blackjack, baccarat, or pai gow poker. Seems like that's a reasonable place to be for both the casino and the players. Single deck, it should deal at 45-50 hands per hour; not too bad a drain on them. JMHO. Good luck on Friday; hope it works for you (I suppose that's tomorrow, now, with the International Date Line.)
Pai Gow Poker? You letting a player bank every other hand to get a better edge? If Pai Gow usually did that, casinos probably ditch it since heads up is a lot more expensive. Given the pace and simplistic strategy of three card, I think 1.3% is pretty tight unless you force high minimums. And yes, I am generally a player advocate. OP is definitely NOT enforcing high minimums (~$3 ante).
October 30th, 2013 at 8:29:36 PM
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Hopefully no brainos this time:
| Hand | Combos | Probability | 1/P-1 | Base Pay | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 card sf | 720 | 0.000001768301429 | 565513.444444444 | 400000 | 0.707320571436431 |
| 5 royal | 3680 | 0.000009037985079 | 110643.130434783 | 80000 | 0.72303880635724 |
| 5 card sf | 32480 | 0.000079770042223 | 12535.0344827586 | 8000 | 0.638160337784868 |
| 3 card royal | 73508 | 0.000180533751962 | 5538.13043478261 | 4000 | 0.722135007849294 |
| 3 card sf | 805276 | 0.001977737085014 | 504.628380828436 | 1500 | 2.96660562752106 |
| 3 of a kind | 958048 | 0.002352941176471 | 424 | 1500 | 3.52941176470588 |
| Nothing | 405296688 | 0.995398211657822 | 0 | 0 | |
| Total | 407170400 | 1 | 216.306821966236 | 9.28667211565477 |
“Man Babes” #AxelFabulous
October 30th, 2013 at 8:59:09 PM
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Thanks guys for the information. Very much appreciated.
I changed the flush payout to 1 pay 1. It was a bit of a hassle as we already trained 350 dealers and 150 Inspectors.
I believe in giving the player fair odds but as we already have a version of caribbean stud poker people will expect similar results. Hopefully if it's popular and with a higher hand rate that will be possible.
I have checked with the local Heng Heng master and he tells me 11:09am is a good time to open tomorrow (when in Rome.....).
I changed the flush payout to 1 pay 1. It was a bit of a hassle as we already trained 350 dealers and 150 Inspectors.
I believe in giving the player fair odds but as we already have a version of caribbean stud poker people will expect similar results. Hopefully if it's popular and with a higher hand rate that will be possible.
I have checked with the local Heng Heng master and he tells me 11:09am is a good time to open tomorrow (when in Rome.....).
November 7th, 2013 at 4:00:29 AM
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Well its very very early days but this game has been operating since the first of the month and is popular. Results are looking good as well. I am a little concerned though. We have had 3 x 5 card straight flush wins. Approximately 8,000 hands have been played.
November 7th, 2013 at 11:21:42 AM
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^^^
2.7% chance of 3 or more of these happening given miplet's numbers. The house has to gamble too sometimes.
Glad it's going well for you generally though.
2.7% chance of 3 or more of these happening given miplet's numbers. The house has to gamble too sometimes.
Glad it's going well for you generally though.
