3 card poker w 1 dealer card exposed
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September 6th, 2013 at 2:53:30 AM
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my friend thinks one dealer card exposed gives a player a 5% edge over the dealer. seems like quite the swing since you'd really only be able to take advantage of the few times the card exposed isn't an akq AND you have queen high but worse than q64 you'd bet anyway.
how big of an advantage do you gain exposing one card as the dealer? could I deal this game ask for 4% back from player wins and have an edge?
how big of an advantage do you gain exposing one card as the dealer? could I deal this game ask for 4% back from player wins and have an edge?
September 6th, 2013 at 4:25:38 AM
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September 6th, 2013 at 8:55:23 AM
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Wach,
I had understood the advantage somewhat differently; if you know the dealer has a 2-J (40/52) you take away some of the disadvantage of having to act first. The thing that kills you in 3CP is having to fold or raise before the dealer shows their cards. If you know at least one card is a non-qualifier, it's a safer bet for you to stay on a bad hand yourself (always raise on 2-J is the advice), because the house pays your ante and pushes your play if they don't qualify, without you having to beat the dealer to get that pay (you can stand on 5-4-2 offsuit and win money against jack high). Of course, either of the two cards you can't see or the hand as a whole can still be qualifiers and you will lose both ante and play bets, but knowing one still turns the game from house edge to player's edge. You can also know to fold a lower qualifier, as you said, but the advantage is there for any type of hand, not just in limited situations.
I had understood the advantage somewhat differently; if you know the dealer has a 2-J (40/52) you take away some of the disadvantage of having to act first. The thing that kills you in 3CP is having to fold or raise before the dealer shows their cards. If you know at least one card is a non-qualifier, it's a safer bet for you to stay on a bad hand yourself (always raise on 2-J is the advice), because the house pays your ante and pushes your play if they don't qualify, without you having to beat the dealer to get that pay (you can stand on 5-4-2 offsuit and win money against jack high). Of course, either of the two cards you can't see or the hand as a whole can still be qualifiers and you will lose both ante and play bets, but knowing one still turns the game from house edge to player's edge. You can also know to fold a lower qualifier, as you said, but the advantage is there for any type of hand, not just in limited situations.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
September 7th, 2013 at 11:26:49 AM
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3.48% if you can differentiate the paints and you don't confuse aces with low cards.
September 7th, 2013 at 1:37:59 PM
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AHH yes I think a lot of people fool themselves BELIEVING they can see cards they cant which would account for the horrible results people were reporting. people were losing after many hours of play on a 3.5% advantage. After hearing of many guys having bad results ran searched Google for "who's having bad results on 3 card poker".Quote: anonimuss3.48% if you can differentiate the paints and you don't confuse aces with low cards.
I believe when state line first got this game dealers were hand pitching the cards. Some of them were very sloppy often times you could see 2 and possibly 3.
Last edited by: unnamed administrator on Aug 7, 2024
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
September 7th, 2013 at 1:49:51 PM
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DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
September 7th, 2013 at 2:19:20 PM
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Do you hole card 3cp often? If so are you doing well? Are you finding many opportunities?Quote: IbeatyouracesI've seen two cards once and as luck would have it, it was two 7's! Luckily for me I had a garbage hand. Oh and this was with the flush mounted shufflers.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
September 7th, 2013 at 3:23:41 PM
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DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
September 7th, 2013 at 4:46:12 PM
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I used to HC 3CP, but like many, I no longer do. The variance is crazy. There are better games out there.
September 7th, 2013 at 8:21:26 PM
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When the casinos got wise and started straightening out the dealers many people who were playing profitably in the beginning got stubborn and refused to quit playing, Those are a lot of the losers. People grossly underrate the cost of errors in that game.
September 8th, 2013 at 11:44:26 AM
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Quote: SwitchEdge is 3.48%
Exposed Card
Yeah, if you run the numbers through a computer simulation that's what you get.
I'm not quite as certain about this as others. The reason being that players tend to send the
cards back to the dealer in poker hand order. That has a noticeable effect on the true odds
in a hand shuffled game using no stripping and few riffles.
Now, the general assumption is that shuffling machines mostly used with 3 CP randomize the
card order so this doesn't happen. I'm not so sure. Those devices are far from perfect.
Several types of shuffling machine have been proven to have exploitable non-randomness
by people with credibility like Persi Diaconis.
The danger with an over-reliance on computer simulation is that you get the wrong numbers
by making incorrect assumptions. It would be nice to see some actual data from others collated
on the card distribution, under real casino conditions. On the basis of the limited data sample
I've collected, my guess is there is some effect of the order of tenths of a %, but it is just a guess.
(Please no one start lecturing me about SD, I know. I am actually above expectation at 3CP
anyway, so negative flux is not my personal concern).
September 8th, 2013 at 12:27:10 PM
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DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
September 8th, 2013 at 12:56:59 PM
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Quote: IbeatyouracesNo different than if you figure out every possible computation of players hand, dealers hand and flashed HC. Comes out to 3.48%.
Here's a question I haven't seen an answer for. What are the dealer qualification percentages on each flashed 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, or jack seperately?
No fair asking questions when I need to sleep. If someone doesn't answere by the time I get up, Excel and I will have a date. :+)
“Man Babes” #AxelFabulous
September 8th, 2013 at 12:59:16 PM
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DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
September 8th, 2013 at 6:18:10 PM
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Quote: IbeatyouracesI'm guessing they'd each have to be less than 66% in order to play trash hands. Its not super important, just more of a curiosity. So sleep all you wish :)
2,j: 750/1275 (about 58.8%)
3,10: 765/1275 (60%)
4 to 9: 780/1275 (about 61.2%)
“Man Babes” #AxelFabulous
September 9th, 2013 at 3:25:44 AM
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Quote: IbeatyouracesNo different than if you figure out every possible computation of players hand, dealers hand and flashed HC. Comes out to 3.48%.
Of course, monte carlo analysis and combinatorial analysis should give you the same results.
The point was that the figure may not be 3.48% under actual casino conditions.
September 9th, 2013 at 6:24:54 AM
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DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
September 9th, 2013 at 9:51:13 AM
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Quote: IbeatyouracesOnly because under real play conditions, you won't see every possible senario without duplication first. I've personally had AKQ of spades twice but never had AKQ of diamonds yet and I've played well over 22,100 hands of TCP.
LOL. He's talking about Shufflemaster voodoo and spaceships changing the order of the cards from mathematical models.
September 9th, 2013 at 9:59:50 AM
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Grosjean completely discredited such a bias in BC-II. I explained the issue in this post: Three Card Poker and the Ace Shuffler Hole-Carding BiasQuote: anonimussLOL. He's talking about Shufflemaster voodoo and spaceships changing the order of the cards from mathematical models.
Last edited by: unnamed administrator on Aug 7, 2024
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September 9th, 2013 at 11:11:25 AM
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Quote: teliotGrosjean completely discredited such a bias in BC-II. I explained the issue in this post: Three Card Poker and the Ace Shuffler Hole-Carding Bias
You have stated repeatedly that you can't get a copy of BC-II and begged for one publicly like a lovesick schoolgirl, so I'm mystified how you would know this. The frequency with which you refer to your boy crush is becoming tedious. Grosjean's circle always made it very clear they despised you, and that's putting it very kindly.
The hypothesis in question is not addressed by your article in any case. This post http://www.beyondcounting.com/bb/viewtopic.php?t=488 summarizes the hypothesis I'm talking about.
It is trivial to prove this phenomena exists in manual shuffle games.
Experiment:
Order a deck cards in poker hand order.
Perform n number of riffles, with minimal or no stripping.
Take data on initial and post-shuffle card order.
Test for statistical significance.
Observe that the cards stay in close proximity with more frequency than pure chance would dictate.
This is very different from gambler's fallacies to do with biased RNG's, TARGET and all that crap, this is a genuine scientific phenomena that exists at 3CP in those casinos where they don't use shuffling machines. It is the basis of the AP technique known variously as ace location, card location or sequencing.
Now, perhaps the shuffling machine thoroughly randomizes the cards. Perhaps it doesn't. Perhaps people who brag about this amazing 3.48% edge they know at GC parties, should maybe consider whether it actually exists first.
Last edited by: unnamed administrator on Aug 7, 2024
September 9th, 2013 at 11:57:31 AM
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Crush? I can't remember the last post that I made about advantage play that you didn't respond to. Maybe you and I should just have sex and get it over with.Quote: GBVyour boy crush is becoming tedious.
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September 9th, 2013 at 12:02:39 PM
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DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
September 9th, 2013 at 1:37:22 PM
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So you tried the game and got destroyed. That's not proof aliens are inside Shufflemasters conspiring against you. Play better games. And pay attention to Grosjean. He's a far better source than you.
September 9th, 2013 at 3:29:42 PM
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Quote: anonimussSo you tried the game and got destroyed. That's not proof aliens are inside Shufflemasters conspiring against you. Play better games. And pay attention to Grosjean. He's a far better source than you.
You obviously didn't read the part where I said "I won above expectation at 3CP", or anything else for that matter.
If Grosjean is such a great source, why are you trying to sell his book currently?
September 9th, 2013 at 3:34:18 PM
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Quote: teliotCrush? I can't remember the last post that I made about advantage play that you didn't respond to. Maybe you and I should just have sex and get it over with.
You have never and will never get to have sex with anything organic.
I have ignored you for the best part of twelve years. I posted maybe a dozen times recently, mainly in response to an article you wrote about me on your website.
September 9th, 2013 at 3:58:15 PM
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Quote: GBVYou have never and will never get to have sex with anything organic.
I have ignored you for the best part of twelve years. I posted maybe a dozen times recently, mainly in response to an article you wrote about me on your website.
If that's the case, then perhaps his website would be the best venue to discuss the matter with him and/or make insults. PM is also an option available to you.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
September 9th, 2013 at 4:39:37 PM
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For those who missed it:Quote: GBVI posted maybe a dozen times recently, mainly in response to an article you wrote about me on your website.
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September 9th, 2013 at 5:39:22 PM
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Quote: GBVYou obviously didn't read the part where I said "I won above expectation at 3CP", or anything else for that matter.
If Grosjean is such a great source, why are you trying to sell his book currently?
The book sold in 4 hours. I made my 6 figures and am retired. Why do you go from forum to forum desperately seeking attention while everybody laughs at you?
September 9th, 2013 at 5:50:02 PM
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Quote: anonimussThe book sold in 4 hours. I made my 6 figures and am retired. Why do you go from forum to forum desperately seeking attention while everybody laughs at you?
I think everybody is laughing at the notion that you think 6 figures is some kind of indication of success...
September 9th, 2013 at 7:15:29 PM
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Quote: GBVI think everybody is laughing at the notion that you think 6 figures is some kind of indication of success...
I'm not, the indication of success is the fact that he made six figures and knows he can invest that well enough to retire.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
September 10th, 2013 at 9:40:29 AM
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Just to help you , six figures spans 100,000 - 999,999. My career as an ap was over 25 years. The info I used from BC was over 3 years of that while I played other games as well. And any indication of success is better than no indication of success, as in your case, isn't it?
