Thread Rating:

Beethoven9th
Beethoven9th
Joined: Jul 30, 2012
  • Threads: 75
  • Posts: 5072
August 22nd, 2013 at 8:19:36 AM permalink
Quote: gr8player

Thank you so very much, ongsoc2, for taking the time and interest to post your opinions. You've no idea how satisfying it is for me to read of a fellow Bac player that actually "gets it" and, just as importantly, takes the time to post of their appreciation.

There are people around here that believe that my time is wasted because no one is listening, but they are not privy to any of my private conversations with players that really are trying to improve their Bac games.

Those that actually play this game, and do so in a serious manner with rather strict limits for themselves, know exactly what good Baccarat theories and plays look like, and those people are most appreciative.

On the contrary, those that DO NOT actually play this game, and are pretty much against anyone that dares takes this game seriously, know exactly how to discourage and discredit anything and everything Baccarat-related. Shame on them......


To gr8player (my esteemed teacher),

Have you accepted the challenge yet?
Fighting BS one post at a time!
7craps
7craps
Joined: Jan 23, 2010
  • Threads: 18
  • Posts: 1977
August 22nd, 2013 at 9:17:01 AM permalink
Quote: gr8player

Historical: my recorded statistics on each trend over 1000 shoes.

#1) Is it your claim that over 1000 shoes you have a net profit from all your wagers?
or is it from more than 1000 shoes.

#2) and because you showed a profit from your method of play this
should mean 100% of all others (Baccarat players)
that 'duplicate your exact method of play'
would also show a net profit after 1000 shoes played.
Is this also a claim of yours?

#3) How many such total wagers did you make in 1000 shoes?
2,000
5,000
10,000 (this would be an average of 10 wagers per shoe)

#4) what percentage of total wagers are flat bets only and
are not part of a negative betting progression?

Observation:
You must know that out of 100,000 blind Gorillas playing Baccarat for bananas only and
making 10,000 total wagers on Banker only, blindly,
about 12,638 (on average)
will end up (and did in my sample test)
end up showing a profit... and some won so much (flay betting only)
they are offered big $$$ to appear on Oprah and Ellen to share their secrets.

No trend betting, betting only when they wanted a banana.

#5) why are you different from those winning Gorillas? (other than you must be a human)

1 in 8 is really nothing special statistically playing Baccarat
(But winning Gorillas over 10k bets IS NEWS!)
and someone has to be on the right side of the bell curve.
#6) Agree?
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
gr8player
gr8player
Joined: Mar 2, 2013
  • Threads: 8
  • Posts: 606
August 22nd, 2013 at 9:19:41 AM permalink
Quote: DeMango

So how can you be a good player at Bac??? I once took out a quarter, Delaware George. Heads=Banker. Flipped it 8 times, won 7 hands. Gave it to the astonished Asian girl next to me. So I am a good player, no?



Not any more you're not, DeMango, you gave away the winning quarter....lol
gr8player
gr8player
Joined: Mar 2, 2013
  • Threads: 8
  • Posts: 606
August 22nd, 2013 at 9:36:44 AM permalink
Quote: 7craps

#1) Is it your claim that over 1000 shoes you have a net profit from all your wagers?
or is it from more than 1000 shoes.

#2) and because you showed a profit from your method of play this
should mean 100% of all others (Baccarat players)
that 'duplicate your exact method of play'
would also show a net profit after 1000 shoes played.
Is this also a claim of yours?

#3) How many such total wagers did you make in 1000 shoes?
2,000
5,000
10,000 (this would be an average of 10 wagers per shoe)

#4) what percentage of total wagers are flat bets only and
are not part of a negative betting progression?

Observation:

You must know that out of 100,000 blind Gorillas playing Baccarat for bananas only and
making 10,000 total wagers on Banker only, blindly,
about 12,638 (on average)
will end up (and did in my sample test)
end up showing a profit... and some won so much (flay betting only)
they are offered big $$$ to appear on Oprah and Ellen to share their secrets.

No trend betting, betting only when they wanted a banana.

#5) why are you different from those winning Gorillas? (other than you must be a human)

1 in 8 is really nothing special statistically playing Baccarat
(But winning Gorillas over 10k bets IS NEWS!)
and someone has to be on the right side of the bell curve.
#6) Agree?



1.) I have a net profit from those 1000 shoes that I tested.

2.) No. I play a "subjective" game, with "start(s)" and "stop(s)" triggers. Only I can play my Bac game exactly the way I play my Bac game.

3.) In those 1000 tested shoes, I'd say roughly 12,000 bets, or a dozen a shoe.

4.) Hmmm....with my mode of play, where I'm in and out of bet "adjustments" rather frequently, that question is a very, very difficult one to answer. Sorry.

5.) IMHO, I'm much better lookin'......

6.) No. This game owes no one anything. I work (and I mean I work hard) for every dollar at this game, make no mistake of it. If it were easy, any gorilla could do it.
Zcore13
Zcore13
Joined: Nov 30, 2009
  • Threads: 39
  • Posts: 3521
August 22nd, 2013 at 10:22:28 AM permalink
I think you might be in for a rude awakening during your next 1,000 shoes. We'll (you mostly) will soon find out. You probably wouldn't believe the number of people that have come through here with systems that worked for their first 12,000 tested hands.

I hope you can keep it up. If I had Bac at my place I'd comp you a room and have you over... :)

ZCore13
I am an employee of a Casino. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
thecesspit
thecesspit
Joined: Apr 19, 2010
  • Threads: 53
  • Posts: 5936
August 22nd, 2013 at 10:30:52 AM permalink
Quote: gr8player

6.) No. This game owes no one anything. I work (and I mean I work hard) for every dollar at this game, make no mistake of it. If it were easy, any gorilla could do it.



You miss the point. Around 10% of the Gorillas can do it after 12,000 bets. If you your average bet size is much bigger than your flat bet size, it's similar to making less than 12,000 flat bets, so more likely than by random play you would be after 12,000 bets.

It's a good way to test. Take your 12,000 bets, apply them to a random string of results and see the likely hood of getting the same results as you did by chance. If it's 10% then it's nothing special. If it's 1% it's interesting, if it's 0.01% then you can tell yourself you have something.

But 12,000 bets is not enough. Obviously you can't simulate your method (from what you've said), so you'll have to continue to practice and play and hope that it's not random chance. Because it could be. You have to understand that for all your work, there's a strong possibility that you just got lucky.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
gr8player
gr8player
Joined: Mar 2, 2013
  • Threads: 8
  • Posts: 606
August 22nd, 2013 at 10:40:18 AM permalink
Whoa, fellas, hold on a sec....

While I've tested but 1000 shoes, that was years ago.....I've played countless hands since then, and I'm still going strong. I'll be in Mohegan tonight and Friday.

But, that said, I do appreciate both your interests and your insights, Zcore13 and thecesspit. Much appreciated, thanks.
JimRockford
JimRockford
Joined: Apr 17, 2012
  • Threads: 12
  • Posts: 533
August 22nd, 2013 at 10:56:22 AM permalink
Quote: gr8player


Those that actually play this game, and do so in a serious manner with rather strict limits for themselves, know exactly what good Baccarat theories and plays look like, and those people are most appreciative.



Are you here to teach us what good baccarat plays look like, because after reading your posts I have no idea. Here is the advice I have gleaned from your writings.
- win one unit as often as possible
- minimize losses
- Each shoe has characteristics
- Through years of experience you can identify these characteristics and exploit them

Surely you can see that these lessons are of no value to me. What are these characteristics?
"Truth is ever to be found in the simplicity, and not in the multiplicity and confusion of things." - Isaac Newton
EvenBob
EvenBob
Joined: Jul 18, 2010
  • Threads: 423
  • Posts: 24014
August 22nd, 2013 at 12:42:44 PM permalink
bubble
"It's not enough to succeed, your friends must fail." Gore Vidal
gr8player
gr8player
Joined: Mar 2, 2013
  • Threads: 8
  • Posts: 606
August 22nd, 2013 at 12:49:21 PM permalink
Hello, JimRockford, and thank you for your inquiry.

I'm not here to "teach" anyone anything. I came to this forum seeking some good Baccarat discussion, a discourse among like-minded members.

And what you have gleaned, JimRockford, you should not be so dismissive of, IMHO. Winning one unit and minimizing losses are paramount to one's long term success, and while those words all come easy, they can be the toughest things to actually accomplish....limiting and accepting short losses and graciously accepting short wins.

Lastly, you ask about shoe "charateristics":

Well, to begin with you should be familiar with the fact that, on average, a single shoe will contain 18 - 20 singles, 8 - 10 doubles, and 3 - 5 triples (or mores). On average. So you have an idea of what to expect and what to look for inside of most shoes.

Then you can begin to think about forming a bet selection process for yourself. Now, think about it a minute....while forming that bet selection process, you must be aware of what your "nemesis" is going to be....what you might lose to....think about it.....would you want those to be the singles, knowing they occur as often as they do? Alternatively, might you be best served in forming a bet selection process that uses those singles?

Just a start, just food for thought.

Now, trends are another matter. I concentrate on the first three holes on my Bac scorecard, the 1-, 2- and 3-holes. I'll treat the Banker and Player side as the totally separate entities that they are. Is the Banker hitting the 3-hole at each sighting of a double-Banker? Or, is it stopping at the double? Either way, it's a trending opportunity. Give the Player's side equal weight and, hence, an equal look. Shoes will have these propensities, especially when you view each side individually......learn to pounce on them.

Now, that's the good news. What about the bad? What of those shoes that are holding virtually no trends? (Rare, but happens.) Time to put your hands in your pockets. There's no bet to be had. If you don't have the patience to wait it out, you're nothing more than just another chump. If you don't have the discipline to play your preferred plays, again, it's chump-ville for you.

Last, but certainly not least, is bet size "manipulation". Therein lies the rub, my friend. For we must bet more into our winners than we do into our losers. Wow, talk about "easier said than done". Ahh, but it is doable. Learn to adjust your bet size up a bit as your personal variance is, apparently, on the upswing. IOW, when you're winning. If you're betting three units (say $15), in a positive swing, raise your bet one unit to $20. If you happen to win that $20 bet, you can safely add one unit at each consecutive winner, because it was all paid for already when you won that first $20 bet. It costs you nothing after you hit that first one-unit raise, and you're taking advantage of a possibly good personal variance upswing.

Now, JimRockford, that is not exactly how I go about it. But the idea is the same and the theory is the same. Work on it, my friend, and keep me posted at to your progress.

I wish you all the very best of it.

  • Jump to: