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98Clubs
98Clubs
Joined: Jun 3, 2010
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 1728
August 9th, 2013 at 8:07:55 PM permalink
Regular game 8 decks in a shoe, stop-card presumed 16 cards from end, and top card indicates cards to burn. On most charting, only the rounds "with at least one" Natural is displayed. If Natural 8 losers, and Natural Ties are accounted as 2 per round, how many Naturals are expected on average? Thanks.
Some people need to reimagine their thinking.
98Clubs
98Clubs
Joined: Jun 3, 2010
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 1728
August 10th, 2013 at 4:57:18 PM permalink
**UPDATE** I found my answer in Appendix #1
The average chance is 0.343045 Total. Of this fraction 0.035821 are 2 Naturals and 0.307224 are 1 Natural.
Given 416 cards per shoe and stop-card at #400, the average burn is 6.5 cards. the 393.5 cards are divided by 4.93881885 cards per round.
This means 79 full rounds are dealt. On the 80th round the stop-card appears. The 81st round is the last round.
In 81 rounds there will be 24.885 single Naturals and 2.902 Double Naturals.
Adding 2*2.902 + 24.885 yields a sum of 30.689 (30.7). This Natural count is 37.89% occurance considering the double Naturals.
Some people need to reimagine their thinking.

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