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egalite
egalite
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June 27th, 2013 at 4:19:08 AM permalink
In the UK the two main casino chains offer what is called the "super egalite".

In a nut shell you have to predict the score of a Tie, while that doesn't sound easy, this Baccarat side bet offers the biggest return of any casino game at 160-1 for a Tie on zero. Casinos that offer this side bet also have to change the normal Tie odds to 9-1.


Basic Outline Rules / How to Play

‘Super Pay Egalite’ is an additional optional wager in the basic game of Punto Banco, the rules of which can be found on this website.

Players do not need to place a standard wager on either the Player, the Banker or Egalite, in order to place a “Super Pay Egalite” side wager. They may place wagers on more than one “Super Pay Egalite” betting position if they wish to do so.

The wager is that the two hands will be of an equal score, (i.e. an Egalite) but will be in a range of specific scores. The wager will win if any of the specific scores in the selected range is the outcome of the tied hand.

If the score is not an Egalite, all wagers on Super Pay Egalite will lose.

If the score is an Egalite, all Super Pay Egalite wagers on the specific range of numbers that includes the winning score will win & be paid odds. All Super Pay Egalite wagers on a range of numbers that does not include the winning score will lose and be surrendered to the bank.

The range of numbers and usual odds payable are:-

Egalite Score Odds
Zero.................160 to 1
1,2 or 3.............70 to 1
4 or 5................60 to 1
6 or 7............... 22 to 1
8 or 9................40 to 1

£4k payout for a pony "£25" on a successful zero Tie wager!

House Edge details

Egalite Score Odds
Zero................6.65%
1,2 or 3..........10.86%
4 or 5..............7.28%
6 or 7..............8.94%
8 or 9............. 9.75%

Other than card tracking, I was wondering if their is a way to exploit this, something along the lines of take all the above "super egalite" options and place a wager of double that amount on the Banco for an entire shoe.

Tie less shoes are indeed a rare breed but can happen, Punto dominated shoes are not so rare.

The majority of UK games comprise of six decks.
DMSCR
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June 27th, 2013 at 3:30:34 PM permalink
Quote: egalite

Incidentally, in the classy Palm Beach London you can put £100 on "the Super Egalite", so I have been informed, £100 x 160-1, mind boggling.


Quote: GBV

Careful here, they are one of a very few places to bar me for counting baccarat.


Quote: egalite

I'm also not allowed in the place.



LOL. Not only being banned in various online forums such as the WoV but 86'd in casinos as well. Now Palm Beach London is a Genting casino, this means egalite is banned in all Genting establishments around the world! Not for being a good player I have heard but being a disruption and disrespectful towards casino employees.
GBV
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June 27th, 2013 at 6:26:48 PM permalink
Quote: egalite



Other than card tracking, I was wondering if their is a way to exploit this, something along the lines of take all the above "super egalite" options and place a wager of double that amount on the Banco for an entire shoe.



Thanks for posting the details on this interesting bet.

Any combination of negative expectation bets yields an expected loss.

Do you know how many cards they cut off? Could you also describe the shuffle?
egalite
egalite
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June 27th, 2013 at 9:07:42 PM permalink
Post removed
egalite
egalite
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June 27th, 2013 at 9:10:38 PM permalink
Quote: GBV

Thanks for posting the details on this interesting bet.

Any combination of negative expectation bets yields an expected loss.

Do you know how many cards they cut off? Could you also describe the shuffle?

Getting back on track, before the idiotic intrusion. They wash the cards, then rifle 3 decks into each other once. There are no burn cards, the cut card is usually placed 12 cards in. So for a six deck game approx 300 cards will be dealt.

Incidentally the £25 limit is applicable to where I play, in other cities such as London you can bet much much higher on this side bet, not bad for 160-1 odds.
Mission146
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June 28th, 2013 at 5:11:59 AM permalink
Quote: DMSCR

No wonder your board is bleeding members and seeing through your fluff. If there is a solution to exploit this wager who would be dumb enough to tell anyone especially a mooching parasite like yourself?

Given that you have been playing for so long as you have always proudly proclaim, don't you know these high paying sucker bets should be always avoided? Also a total waste of time that drags the table. The smart consistently profitable players (not blind greedy gamblers like yourself) only focus on either wagering on Player or Banker only. Duh.

So what else you have other than stalking people online with your multiple usernames and then leaving violent messages on their voice mails?

Stop trying to generate all this garbage in the hopes of trying to attract people into joining your bullshit forums. If only baccarat is as predictable as your bullshit, many more folks can make a living out of this. LOL.

Now stop the begging.



Personal Insult, One Week.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
24Bingo
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June 30th, 2013 at 12:15:48 PM permalink
Quote: egalite

Other than card tracking, I was wondering if their is a way to exploit this, something along the lines of take all the above "super egalite" options and place a wager of double that amount on the Banco for an entire shoe.



To be blunt, you're not going to find "something like" that for any game, ever. You're going to have to count cards somehow, although I can't say how; if you're not somehow subverting the assumptions under which the game is offered, you'll never have the edge.

Although it wouldn't surprise me if a simple count of tens could give you the edge on this, or if an even/odd count could give you the edge much faster than with the traditional tie bet.
The trick to poker is learning not to beat yourself up for your mistakes too much, and certainly not too little, but just the right amount.
egalite
egalite
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June 30th, 2013 at 11:44:38 PM permalink
Quote: 24Bingo

To be blunt, you're not going to find "something like" that for any game, ever. You're going to have to count cards somehow, although I can't say how; if you're not somehow subverting the assumptions under which the game is offered, you'll never have the edge.

Although it wouldn't surprise me if a simple count of tens could give you the edge on this, or if an even/odd count could give you the edge much faster than with the traditional tie bet.

Putting aside trying to crack this via some progression, even though you can have over 450+ stabs at it (I stopped at 450, because it wasn't feasible due to the cost involved).

Often you can get a Tie on the score of Baccara (zero), without 6 x tens involved. So while tracking 10 cards may help, you won't capture all the zero Ties. I'm just back from the casino and recorded the Tie scores, in shoe #5 their was a zero-zero tie, but that was the 2nd hand of the shoe.

In shoe #2 there was a Tie 3 hands from the end with a score of 7 (so counting tens I doubt would have helped).
Shoe #3, the final hand was a Tie on 6
Shoe #4, the final hand was a Tie on 4
Shoe #5, 8 hands from the end a tie on 7
Shoe #6, 4 hands from the end, Tie on 7
Shoe #8, 3 hands from the end, tie on 4

IMO, only tracking 10's alone, won't cut it.

Incidentally, in the classy Palm Beach London you can put £100 on "the Super Egalite", so I have been informed, £100 x 160-1, mind boggling.
GBV
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July 1st, 2013 at 2:13:07 AM permalink
Quote: egalite



Incidentally, in the classy Palm Beach London you can put £100 on "the Super Egalite", so I have been informed, £100 x 160-1, mind boggling.



Careful here, they are one of a very few places to bar me for counting baccarat.
egalite
egalite
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July 1st, 2013 at 6:41:48 AM permalink
Quote: GBV

Careful here, they are one of a very few places to bar me for counting baccarat.

I'm also not allowed in the place.
egalite
egalite
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July 7th, 2013 at 10:21:53 PM permalink
After carefully monitoring Ties over the last couple of weeks covering at a minimum 40 shoes . Where they occur in a shoe (have seen a few zero scores "only once comprising of 6 x 10's", that was very early in a shoe), card composition when they do occur, relevant face values, odd v's even, high v's low). I have to say it is an absolute myth that any form of card tracking is going to aid anybody in not only predicting a tie, but also the score of the Tie.
teliot
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October 30th, 2013 at 10:37:56 AM permalink
Quote: egalite

I have to say it is an absolute myth that any form of card tracking is going to aid anybody in not only predicting a tie, but also the score of the Tie.


Finally finished my blog article on this one -- it has the distinction of being the #1 most beatable baccarat side bet:

http://apheat.net/2013/10/30/card-counting-the-super-pay-egalite-baccarat-side-bet/
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ssho88
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March 3rd, 2014 at 7:07:30 PM permalink
Quote: egalite

I'm also not allowed in the place.



1)uk casinos normally use 6 deck for baccarat ?
2)What are the uk casinos offer egalite sidebet ?
3) what is the betting limits for egalite ?
4) What is the penetration for baccarat ? 12 cards from bottom ?
DeMango
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March 4th, 2014 at 1:05:06 AM permalink
Egalite is not allowed in this place either.
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
DMSCR
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July 6th, 2014 at 3:26:33 PM permalink
Quote: egalite

Incidentally, in the classy Palm Beach London you can put £100 on "the Super Egalite", so I have been informed, £100 x 160-1, mind boggling.


Quote: GBV

Careful here, they are one of a very few places to bar me for counting baccarat.


Quote: egalite

I'm also not allowed in the place.



LOL. Not only being banned in various online forums such as the WoV but 86'd in casinos as well. Now Palm Beach London is a Genting casino, this means egalite is banned in all Genting establishments around the world!
CyrusV
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September 26th, 2017 at 7:31:14 AM permalink
Quote: ssho88

1)uk casinos normally use 6 deck for baccarat ?
2)What are the uk casinos offer egalite sidebet ?
3) what is the betting limits for egalite ?
4) What is the penetration for baccarat ? 12 cards from bottom ?



They offer U R Way egalite as well as Super Pay Egalite, normal ties paid at 9-1

Betting limits £20 on SPE (exception £10 for zero), or £10 per score for UR Way egalite, £250 for 9-1 tie.

Penetration now changed to a minimum of 52 cards cut from 8 deck shoe in most Genting venues in UK. Sole Grosvenor casino in North that still offers Baccarat, cut cards = 16 from end for 6 deck shoe, no casino in UK burns cards at start of shoe.
Jacblacc911
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January 31st, 2023 at 7:12:00 AM permalink
With regards to the the effect reduced penetration has on the player edge, bet frequency and overall EV, do you know what the figures would be for the same 8 deck game but with 26, 52, 78 cards left in the shoe? I believe your sim was based on 14 cards left in the shoe.
Jacblacc911
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January 31st, 2023 at 7:15:10 AM permalink
Quote: teliot

Quote: egalite

I have to say it is an absolute myth that any form of card tracking is going to aid anybody in not only predicting a tie, but also the score of the Tie.


Finally finished my blog article on this one -- it has the distinction of being the #1 most beatable baccarat side bet:

/2013/10/30/card-counting-the-super-pay-egalite-baccarat-side-bet/
link to original post



With regards to the the effect reduced penetration has on the player edge, bet frequency and overall EV, do you know what the figures would be for the same 8 deck game but with 26, 52, 78 cards left in the shoe? I believe your sim was based on 14 cards left in the shoe.
heatmap
heatmap
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January 31st, 2023 at 5:21:18 PM permalink
im just glad this thread was brought back up ... it started like all other "claim" threads in this forum

then teliot said fug you people who didnt do the simulations and not a single person knew what to do
Jacblacc911
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February 1st, 2023 at 7:42:34 AM permalink
@ heatmap

What do you mean by 'claim' threads?
heatmap
heatmap
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February 1st, 2023 at 2:44:42 PM permalink
well when this thread came out OP was somewhat in his own way hinting that he/she thought that there may be an advantage to be had essentially "claiming" it...

and everyone like the good little parrots that they are started to attack them with more "claims" that he was wrong and that all side bets are sucker bets etc...

this is what i mean by claim threads
teliot
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February 1st, 2023 at 5:07:16 PM permalink
Quote: heatmap

then teliot said fug you people who didnt do the simulations and not a single person knew what to do
link to original post

This is either nonsense or false, I can't decide which.
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charliepatrick
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teliot
February 1st, 2023 at 5:31:19 PM permalink
Quote: heatmap

...teliot said... ...you people who didnt do the simulations and not a single person knew what to do...

I'm slightly confused.

It isn't trivial to create simulation software and even harder to run simulations that can evaluate the probabilities dynamically before each hand. Personally for things like this, unless it's a single deck, I don't have the computer power so would rely on creating a count (based on EORs) and track results against the running count. This can be used to create a good estimate for the expected potential profit per 100 hands.

From what I've seen Eliot did a lot of good work looking at sidebets that could be counted. Indeed I use the measure of countability he invented, when looking at some games. There may not be many people who can perform this level of analysis, but it would be wrong to say there isn't "a single person" on this forum who doesn't know what to do.

Sometimes several of us used to have a look at these types challenges, either as an academic exercise or just for fun. This often led to some interesting discussions.
heatmap
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February 1st, 2023 at 5:57:16 PM permalink
Quote: teliot

Quote: heatmap

then teliot said fug you people who didnt do the simulations and not a single person knew what to do
link to original post

This is either nonsense or false, I can't decide which.
link to original post



Did you not prove the people who doubted this side bet wrong? They said sidebets are not profitable and you did the simulations for this particular one and prove that it could be beat if you were counting perfectly (which I know counting perfectly is impossible)?
Wizard
Administrator
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February 2nd, 2023 at 3:02:00 AM permalink
Quote: heatmap

im just glad this thread was brought back up ... it started like all other "claim" threads in this forum

then teliot said fug you people who didnt do the simulations and not a single person knew what to do
link to original post



Personal insult/misquoting -- Three-day suspension.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Jacblacc911
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February 3rd, 2023 at 7:37:22 AM permalink
Quote: Jacblacc911

With regards to the the effect reduced penetration has on the player edge, bet frequency and overall EV, do you know what the figures would be for the same 8 deck game but with 26, 52, 78 cards left in the shoe? I believe your sim was based on 14 cards left in the shoe.
link to original post



Getting back to the question above, is anyone able to tell me whether or not the player advantage still exists if 52 or 78 cards are cutoff from the 8 deck game? If so, how much as a percentage and also is there still enough bet frequency at these penetrations to make it worthwhile?

original info from 'Advanced Advantage Play' by Eliot Jacobson 2013:
Average edge: 17%
Bet frequency: 20%
This was based off the sim which used only 14 cards cutoff.
charliepatrick
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February 3rd, 2023 at 4:59:29 PM permalink
I have no idea what a "Tie Player" (as opposed to a "Tie Banker") is but I've stumbled across an old investigation I must have done, and it shows that the sidebet could make $33.12/100 hands/$100 playing 8.4% of hands for 83% penetration of 8 decks, and the advantage nearly doubled to $60.86 (12.5% of hands played) for 95% penetration. From my experience of analysing Blackjack the advantage by counting six decks reduces by about 1/3 if they cut at two decks ($18.36) rather than one ($27.20).

Thus, as a guess, there would probably be some kind of advantage, but I have no idea whether it's worth it. Obviously any kind of risky bet, as the tie ones are, has a huge variance, so it's a big risk. Furthermore I would also guess that the casino, by using these cutoff numbers, has done the analysis; so is happy there is asmaller risk.
Jacblacc911
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February 5th, 2023 at 10:48:39 AM permalink
Quote: charliepatrick

I have no idea what a "Tie Player" (as opposed to a "Tie Banker") is but I've stumbled across an old investigation I must have done, and it shows that the sidebet could make $33.12/100 hands/$100 playing 8.4% of hands for 83% penetration of 8 decks, and the advantage nearly doubled to $60.86 (12.5% of hands played) for 95% penetration. From my experience of analysing Blackjack the advantage by counting six decks reduces by about 1/3 if they cut at two decks ($18.36) rather than one ($27.20).

Thus, as a guess, there would probably be some kind of advantage, but I have no idea whether it's worth it. Obviously any kind of risky bet, as the tie ones are, has a huge variance, so it's a big risk. Furthermore I would also guess that the casino, by using these cutoff numbers, has done the analysis; so is happy there is asmaller risk.
link to original post



By 'Tie Banker', I assume you mean a bet was placed on the tie as well as banker? Original poster stated that a bet could be placed solely on the tie, without a banker or player bet having to be played, however, this is not the case currently. So if one wants to play the tie, he must place a banker or player wager as well.
I'm not sure if Eliot's sim involved a single bet on tie (1 unit total bet) or if it required an accompanying bet on player or banker (2 units total bet).

Regarding the variance, yes, it is huge. Around 147 if I recall correctly, with an SD of 12.1.
charliepatrick
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February 5th, 2023 at 2:09:45 PM permalink
^ No I had been looking at a totally different sidebet called "Tie Banker" and "Tie Player", but was trying to draw parallels.

The last time I was In London you used to be able to bet the various Tie bets without playing elsewhere.

Usually one just analyses the sidebet without reference to other bets. The method Eliot uses, and I also have adopted, is assume you can wong in and out. The measure is how much you make if you watch 100 hands and bet $100 every time the sidebet is advantageous.

Sometimes the advantage will be very slim and other times quite nice. Typically the further you can go into a shoe there are more occasions where the advantage becomes good. In Blackjack it's a small House Edge to overcome, whereas in sidebets there's quite a hurdle to beat. That's why you'll see some games are described as [nearly] uncountable.
Jacblacc911
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February 7th, 2023 at 6:50:04 AM permalink
Quote: charliepatrick

^ No I had been looking at a totally different sidebet called "Tie Banker" and "Tie Player", but was trying to draw parallels.

The last time I was In London you used to be able to bet the various Tie bets without playing elsewhere.

Usually one just analyses the sidebet without reference to other bets. The method Eliot uses, and I also have adopted, is assume you can wong in and out. The measure is how much you make if you watch 100 hands and bet $100 every time the sidebet is advantageous.

Sometimes the advantage will be very slim and other times quite nice. Typically the further you can go into a shoe there are more occasions where the advantage becomes good. In Blackjack it's a small House Edge to overcome, whereas in sidebets there's quite a hurdle to beat. That's why you'll see some games are described as [nearly] uncountable.
link to original post



Thank you for your replies.
Yep the house edge on the side bet is very large, however, the average player edge that can be gained according to Eliot is also very high. But since this was based on a penetration that is pretty much non-existent these days (14 cards cutoff), I still want to find out at what limit of penetration it becomes unproductive.
Examples: If at 52 cards cutoff, there is still a player advantage, but the return is only $0.10 per 100hands with a $100 unit. Or, if there is still a large return, but the number of betting opportunities are so few and far between that you would have to play 50 shoes before you got a betting opportunity.
charliepatrick
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February 7th, 2023 at 9:23:17 AM permalink
Quote: Jacblacc911

...I still want to find out at what limit of penetration it becomes unproductive..

I understand your question but sadly I don't have the exact answer for you. That's why all I could do was to give you facts based on other simulations that I've done and leave you to draw your own conclusions. As I hinted it would be a lot of work to create a customised simulation.
DogHand
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teliot
February 8th, 2023 at 11:46:59 PM permalink
A very similar thread concerning this is available on Norm's site:

https://www.blackjacktheforum.com/showthread.php?45303-Baccarat-egalite-side-bet

There, I posted sim results for a cut of 52 cards.

Dog Hand
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