Starting bankroll and strategy (Craps)

Does the starting bankroll dictate the betting strategy when it comes to how aggressively you play?

I usually take $100 to the table to start with. If I were to double that would it change the strategy of say playing the passline with odds and 6 and 8?

Quote: derik999

Does the starting bankroll dictate the betting strategy when it comes to how aggressively you play?

Not entirely. A betting strategy should take into account three things at least:

1) Goal
2) The player's temperament or personality
3) Bankroll

If your goal is to play a long time without regard to winning or losing, and if you're ok with small bets, then you can use a conservative strategy to minimze loses and employ a small bankroll.

If your goal is to clean up, you'd be better off with high risk, large bets. But only if you're comfortable betting such amounts, and if you have the large bankroll to see you through it (in any case your chances aren't good unless you're s dice controller). By high risk I don't mean high house edge bets, BTW, but more like taking 100X odds on all PL/DP bets and all come/don't come bets (risking $5 on a PL bet without odds is a smaller risk than betting $50 with 100X odds). Some people can risk a week's pay on a craps session, some can't.

There's no order to the factors, but they are interdependent. You won't clean up if you're a timid bettor, no matter how large your bankroll is, for example. And you won't play long if you have a small bankroll and take huge risks.

$100 is not enough.

If you really don't like busting out, take at least $200. If you are playing line and odds and six and eight, that's way too much variance even at a $3 table.

I take it you're not playing at a $.50 minimum table?

Quote: derik999

Does the starting bankroll dictate the betting strategy when it comes to how aggressively you play?

I usually take $100 to the table to start with. If I were to double that would it change the strategy of say playing the passline with odds and 6 and 8?

Here's a re-post from a similar thread:

Quote: dwheatley

You need to decide what risk of ruin % you can tolerate to determine the starting bankroll requirements. If you want a 0% risk of ruin in one hour, just figure out how much you could possibly lose if you lost every hand (given your speed of play), and that's your max bankroll requirement.

The essential factors you need to consider are:

the rate of play, i.e. how many bets per hour
the minimum bet you can make
the house edge and standard deviation of the bet or bets you are going to make (most important)
the "risk of ruin" you will accept

For example, take craps, making $5 passline bets and taking double odds. The average bet will be $11.67, since odds are taken only 2/3 of the time, the ev per bet is -.0707 and the standard deviation per bet is $14.29.

How many rolls per hour? Of course, this will vary considerably, depending on how many players at the table, what kind of bets are being made, etc. Let's assume 100 rolls/hour. Passline bets are resolved, on average, in 3.375 rolls, so we would expect to resolve about 30 of these bets. That means the ev is 30 * -.0707 = -$2.21 and the standard deviation is $14.29 * sqrt 30 = $78.27.

Now, if your luck is such that you end up one standard deviation worse than the ev, that would be losing about $80. How about two SD worse? That's about $160 down. The probability of being two standard deviations WORSE (one-tail test) than expectation is 2.28%, or odds of about 43 to 1 against. So, if you started with $160, you'd have an excellent chance of lasting an hour. BTW, the same probability applies to ending up two SD BETTER than expectation, which would be -2.21 + (2 * 78.27) = + about $150.

This is pretty detailed, but the point is that the most important factor is the volatility of the bets you are going to be making, a factor poorly covered in most gambling books.
Cheers,
Alan Shank

Thanks for breaking it down for me. My approach if I were to start with $200 would be the $5 passline, and then once the point is made then I'd place all the numbers, $6 for 6 and 8, $5 for the others. I'd alternate getting paid and then pressing all numbers but 4 and 10 which I'd press every time and buy either at $10 or $20. I could also take place bet wins and put it on the passline odds instead of pressing.

The .50 minimum is the only table they have at the casino I play at. It's relatively small and the area I live in is a retirement community for the most part, so you have a lot of older folks playing with .50 chips. Makes it attractive to them I guess since they can have fun and not spend the kind of money the more "serious" gamblers do.

What do you mean by too much variance?

If it's a $.50 minimum, do whatever the hell you like. Play the hardways, red seven, horn high 'yo', whatever. Go crazy--you aren't going to lose too much money, and you can try out whatever strategy you like.

It's a pretty good strategy, I've seen a lot of people use yours. Perhaps Alan will do an analysis of it. Variance is the amount of swing you will see in your bankroll. It's related to the standard deviation. You can read a lot about it in other threads and posts.

Man, I've got to find out what casino you play at. Don't suppose you'd tell me where it is? :)

Quote: derik999

The .50 minimum is the only table they have at the casino I play at. It's relatively small and the area I live in is a retirement community for the most part, so you have a lot of older folks playing with .50 chips. Makes it attractive to them I guess since they can have fun and not spend the kind of money the more "serious" gamblers do.

What do you mean by too much variance?

"Too much variance..." - enough variance (volatility) in a betting strategy that results in a "risk of ruin" higher than the player wants.

Any value-judgment term must be relative to the INDIVIDUAL player. The more variance, the more likely the player is to bust, but also the less luck necessary to overcome the house edge and come out even or better. It's a double-edged sword, just like most everything in gambling (and life).

With $200 to start, betting $5 pass and placing all the numbers, then pressing, is going to result in a pretty high probability of losing the entire $200. You've got around $32 out there, which is almost one-sixth of your stake.
Cheers,
Alan Shank

Quote: teddys

If it's a $.50 minimum, do whatever the hell you like. Play the hardways, red seven, horn high 'yo', whatever. Go crazy--you aren't going to lose too much money, and you can try out whatever strategy you like.

It's a pretty good strategy, I've seen a lot of people use yours. Perhaps Alan will do an analysis of it. Variance is the amount of swing you will see in your bankroll. It's related to the standard deviation. You can read a lot about it in other threads and posts.

Man, I've got to find out what casino you play at. Don't suppose you'd tell me where it is? :)

I don't play the minimum. The minimum for me is $5 since I'd like to make some money if the dice are kind that night. But yeah most people play all the sucker bets when they are just betting 50 cents.

I play at the 7 Cedars Casino in Sequim, WA. Little retirement town that drew Californians like flies to crap when the housing bubble had yet to burst, lol.

Quote: goatcabin

"Too much variance..." - enough variance (volatility) in a betting strategy that results in a "risk of ruin" higher than the player wants.

Any value-judgment term must be relative to the INDIVIDUAL player. The more variance, the more likely the player is to bust, but also the less luck necessary to overcome the house edge and come out even or better. It's a double-edged sword, just like most everything in gambling (and life).

With $200 to start, betting $5 pass and placing all the numbers, then pressing, is going to result in a pretty high probability of losing the entire $200. You've got around $32 out there, which is almost one-sixth of your stake.
Cheers,
Alan Shank

What can I do to lower the variance? Not press and get paid on each number rolled?

Quote: derik999

What can I do to lower the variance? Not press and get paid on each number rolled?

Well, that's one thing. You could also stay off the outside numbers, as placing 4/10 has a house edge of almost 7%. That would reduce your expected loss and your variance, both.
Cheers,
Alan Shank

Quote: goatcabin

Well, that's one thing. You could also stay off the outside numbers, as placing 4/10 has a house edge of almost 7%. That would reduce your expected loss and your variance, both.
Cheers,
Alan Shank

Sounds good, thanks!

Quote: goatcabin

Well, that's one thing. You could also stay off the outside numbers, as placing 4/10 has a house edge of almost 7%. That would reduce your expected loss and your variance, both.
Cheers,
Alan Shank

Are you taking odds on your passline bet? Compare placing the 4/10 to taking odds when they become the point:

for the place 4, the HA is 6.67% and the standard deviation is 1.32 times the amount of the bet
for taking odds on the 4, the HA is zero, and the standard deviation is 1.41 times the amount of the bet

So, you get more variance per bet, but less overall, since you only get the 4/10 for a point every 6th comeout, on average. Plus the variance costs you nothing, instead of $.33 a pop.

At the risk of sounding arrogant, I suggest you read all of my blog posts, in the order they were posted; they cover the issue of variance pretty thoroughly, in my view.
Cheers,
Alan Shank

When you say taking the odds on the 4 do you mean buying the true odds for the 4?

No worries about sounding arrogant, I'm always open to learning more. I'm still green when it comes to playing craps. I'm curious to know what strategies the more seasoned craps players used, or those that play consistently throughout the year.

There are plenty of strategies... not sure if any particular one are successful.

The issue with craps is that most people who have played craps for a long time are bet junkies. They love the rush and the corresponding disappointment when bets win or lose. That causes seasoned long time craps players to make dumb bets.

What makes a smart, seasoned player is someone who knows that the dice are truly random and to play the bets that lose them the least amount of money at the amounts and variance their personal situation can tolerate. They don't let superstition get to them.

But there are quite a few different types of players:

The pass liners - these are the people who will play the pass line with some odds and place the six and eight, with no other bets. Over time, these people will likely lose the least.

The pass and comers - these are the people who will play the pass line with odds and then place come bets with odds, with no other bets. Over time, these people will also lose the least, but the variances are higher.

The placers -- these people will place all of the numbers and perhaps buy the four and ten. They may play the pass line too. The placers like to press their bets when they hit and ride a good shooting wave. The problem with these players is that their money is far too susceptible to the 7 and rarely do they take their bets down.

The dark siders -- these people play the don't pass exclusively and might do a couple of don't come bets as well. They generallly do quite well at a cold table.

The idiots -- these people ride a wave of field bets, hardways and center action looking to win a lucky bet. Sometimes they even win.

That said, your betting style will match your personality. My wife likes to play a pass line bet with nothing else. I like to play the 6/8 and a come bet, pressing my come bets as they come in. My wife's betting style is more conservative and less volatile, while mine can be quite volatile. I have to be careful to not be too greedy and to only press my bets when winning, which is difficult to do.

Quote: derik999

When you say taking the odds on the 4 do you mean buying the true odds for the 4?

No worries about sounding arrogant, I'm always open to learning more. I'm still green when it comes to playing craps. I'm curious to know what strategies the more seasoned craps players used, or those that play consistently throughout the year.

There are three ways to be on the 4 (or 10):

1. make a passline (or come) bet, get a point of 4 and take the odds
2. make a place bet on the 4, in multiples of $5, which pays $9
3. buy the 4, which pays double the bet, but with a 5% vig

In the first one, you place your odds bet behind your passline bet. It gets paid at 2 to 1, just like the buy bet, but there is no vig. When a come bet goes to a point, the dealer moves your come bet to the point box. To take odds, you put chips on the table and tell the dealer you're taking the odds. He/she will "heel" your odds bet on the come bet. Different casinos allow odds bets in different multiples of the flat bet; most common these days, I believe, is 3, 4 5X odds, meaning triple on the 4/10, quadruple on the 5/9 and quintuple on the 6/8. In each case, the payoff is six times the flat bet, plus the flat bet itself.

Of course, you have to make the "flat" bet (the even-money bet) in order to get a chance to take the odds. You can also lay the odds on don't pass/don't come bets, betting the "long end", i.e. bet $20 to win $10.
Cheers,
Alan Shank

Quote: goatcabin

* make a place bet on the 4, in multiples of $5, which pays $9
* buy the 4, which pays double the bet, but with a 5% vig

There is very little advantage to making a place bet on the 4 or the 10. If you make a place bet for $20 (=4*$5) then you are paid $36 (=4*$9). The only possible advantage is if you are too broke and you don't want to risk $20. In this case, I would suggest simply placing 6's and 8's.

If you buy the bet for $20, then you are paid the initial $40 , but you must pay $1 commission. So you are paid $39 (which is better than $36). The downside is that some casinos collect the vig of $1 every time you make the bet, not just when you win. So you have to factor in the number of times you lose and you still have to pay the vig. But even in the case where they collect every time you are statistically better off buying instead of placing.

Bottom line is why collect $36 when you could be collecting more for the same bet.


A very popular play is to place bets on all of five of the numbers, except for the point. The player is missing on the advantage of buying over placing. It takes you a few extra seconds to say what you want, but you can place the 6 & 8, and buy the 4,5, 9 & 10 . Some casinos are considerate enough to consider all bets on the 4 and the 10 to default to buy bets (but that is still kind of rare).


And as mentioned in other places on this forum, the Santa Ana casino in New Mexico doesn't collect the vig at all when you buy the 4 and the 10, making it a "no house advantage" bet. So far no other casino has chosen to copy this promotion.

The 5 and 9's commission HA on the place is 4%. The buy bet on the 5 and 9 is 4.76% when they collect the vig up front. I've never seen anyone buy a 5 and 9. Buying a 4 and 10 where the Vig is paid only on the win is a good bet but because it hits on average only 1 time in 3, you've got to have the bankroll to see long stretches of time where these bets never hit.

I thought of another approach to betting that I'm not sure is worthwhile or not so I'll pass it on to you guys for an evaluation. If the point were 4 or 10, would it be worth playing the inside place bets and then playing the don't pass with odds? On the surface it appears like it would be a good type of damage control given the 4 and 10 are the least likely numbers to come up; so if you are hitting the inside numbers for awhile and then crap out you are going out with a win for that hand after winning on the place bets.

Quote: boymimbo

The 5 and 9's commission HA on the place is 4%. The buy bet on the 5 and 9 is 4.76% when they collect the vig up front. I've never seen anyone buy a 5 and 9. Buying a 4 and 10 where the Vig is paid only on the win is a good bet but because it hits on average only 1 time in 3, you've got to have the bankroll to see long stretches of time where these bets never hit.

If you can buy the 5/9 for $30 and pay just $1 vig, collected only on a win, the HA is just 1.33%, actually a tad lower than the line bets. Those conditions may be hard to find, however. Raleigh Craps, I believe, has found those conditions.
Cheers,
Alan Shank

Quote: derik999

I thought of another approach to betting that I'm not sure is worthwhile or not so I'll pass it on to you guys for an evaluation. If the point were 4 or 10, would it be worth playing the inside place bets and then playing the don't pass with odds? On the surface it appears like it would be a good type of damage control given the 4 and 10 are the least likely numbers to come up; so if you are hitting the inside numbers for awhile and then crap out you are going out with a win for that hand after winning on the place bets.

Not sure exactly what you mean, here. If you mean you bet against the 4/10 with a don't pass, you can't do that. You cannot make a don't pass bet after the comeout; you could make a don't come, but the only way it would interact with the pass point is if the next roll is a seven - you'd lose them both. You could make a lay bet against the 4 or 10, but lay bets require you to bet the long end of the odds, so you bet $40 to win $20 and pay a $1 vig. Also, lay bets do not gain as much advantage from the "collect only on a win" rule as buy bets, because lay bets win more often than they lose.

BTW, consider that any time you hedge, IOW, make bets that partially offset each other, you pay the HA on BOTH of them while you REDUCE variance. In your situation you could reduce variance and expected loss by simply betting in smaller amounts, since that's a $.50 table, a rarity nowadays.
Cheers,
Alan Shank

Quote: derik999

If the point were 4 or 10, would it be worth playing the inside place bets and then playing the don't pass with odds?

I think you mean DontCome. If its an immediate 7, the DontCome will soften the impact on you of the shooter failing to make his point, but the PassLine bet that became a point of 4or10 is a separate bet from your subsequent DontCome bets although I often have played this way the dealers clearly think I'm an idiot.
>and then crap out
You mean and then Seven Out.

Quote: FleaStiff

I think you mean DontCome. If its an immediate 7, the DontCome will soften the impact on you of the shooter failing to make his point, but the PassLine bet that became a point of 4or10 is a separate bet from your subsequent DontCome bets although I often have played this way the dealers clearly think I'm an idiot.
>and then crap out
You mean and then Seven Out.

Yeah I think I had the two confused, and yeah I mean Seven Out, lol.

Quote: FleaStiff

I think you mean DontCome. If its an immediate 7, the DontCome will soften the impact on you of the shooter failing to make his point, but the PassLine bet that became a point of 4or10 is a separate bet from your subsequent DontCome bets although I often have played this way the dealers clearly think I'm an idiot.

If a pass bet goes to a point (any point) and you then make a don't come bet and the next roll is a seven, you lose BOTH the pass and the don't come. If you make a come bet, then it would win on a seven, offsetting the loss of the pass bet.
Cheers,
Alan Shank

Quote: goatcabin

If you can buy the 5/9 for $30 and pay just $1 vig, collected only on a win, the HA is just 1.33%, actually a tad lower than the line bets. Those conditions may be hard to find, however. Raleigh Craps, I believe, has found those conditions.
Cheers,
Alan Shank

I know this is a Vegas oriented site, and I feel like I am shilling for MS, but Biloxi and Tunica both have this favorable bet. $30 buy on the 5 and 9 pays you $44 on the win, $60 buy pays you $87. On the trip at the end of this month I intend to find out exactly where the round ups occur, so I can make the correct sized wagers to minimize the HA.
Of course, now that goatcabin has shown me the error of my place/buy ways, I guess this information will be wasted since all I should be doing is PL/CB with max odds. ;-)

I just booked my trip to RIO for May, so it's not all MS for me. :-)

ruin for $160 with $5 and 2X odds
pass line
30 of them
calculated (takes a few minutes to setup)

much higher than using the SD method the wrong way
so it is

Google Docs (my Excel)
name: pass-2x-1211-recursion
https://goo.gl/JcQdBl

nice too (1+1)
Sally