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senee
senee
Joined: Jul 4, 2012
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July 4th, 2012 at 8:00:10 PM permalink
Dear all,
I got a question on baccarat house edge on tie bet.
I usually travel to play in various Casinos at Poi Pet, Cambodia.

Most casinos use following baccarat rules;
- 8 decks, manual shuffle, penetrate around 85-90% of shoe
- burn out cards at the beginning of the shoe and burn one card before each turn
- No commission, B6 (pay 50%) or Punto Banco 2000 rule

I understand that the probability for above rules are;
Banker (non 6): 40.47%
Banker (6): 5.39%
Tie : 9.52%

and the house edge are;
Banker: 1.46
Player: 1.24
Tie: 14.36

That's why we count a tie bet as the worst bet. But... above 14.36 house edge is calculated from tie bet pay rate of 1 to 8.
If the tie bet pay rate is 1 to 9, which can be found somewhere, the house edge will reduce to only 4.84.

But... many casinos at Poi Pet pay for tie bet at 1 to 10....
So... i'm quite confused on probability and house edge of this tie pay rate.
If i do not understand wrong, it will turn to be player advantage of around 4%.
I do not believe that any casino will make any bet advantage to player.

I've tested always bet 1 unit on tie with 12 shoes actual records and found that it was really an advantage.
The result was:

61 bets / 4 ties = minus 17 units
62 bets / 6 ties = plus 4 units
61 bets / 8 ties = plus 27 units
64 bets / 4 ties = minus 20 units
60 bets / 11 ties = plus 61 units
63 bets / 3 ties = minus 30 units
61 bets / 9 ties = plus 38 units
63 bets / 5 ties = minus 8 units
60 bets / 5 ties = minus 5 units
62 bets / 8 ties = plus 26 units
62 bets / 6 ties = plus 4 units
63 bets / 8 ties = plus 25 units

In summary, always bet on tie for above 12 shoes was a plus of 105 units.
Tie occurred at 10.4% which was close to probability of 9.5%.

Do you have any comments or correction? Do i understand something wrong?

PS: Sorry for my bad English.
teddys
teddys
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July 4th, 2012 at 8:17:48 PM permalink
Ties occur every 10.5 hands, on average. So a tie bet paying 10 to 1 would result in a player advantage of 4.57%. I doubt there is any casino in the world that offers that bet. Are you sure it's not a 10 for 1 payout?
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
heather
heather
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July 4th, 2012 at 8:18:51 PM permalink
I've never had the pleasure of playing Baccarat in Cambodia. What's penetration like in Poi Pet? I ask because, if you're interested in ties, they start to get countable towards the end of the shoe (although the cut card normally keeps this from being anything more than a vaguely interesting observation).

Although I'm sure that you've already seen it, the Wizard has a page here that shows an increase in positive expectation for tie bets by a factor of one thousand if penetration is increased from 90% to 98%. So, depending on how deep into the shoe they go in Poi Pet, you could have something potentially useful. Although, as that page also notes, to only bet on ties when the penetration is very deep would require one to sit through quite a few hands waiting for the shoe to go "hot". Same problem that Blackjack card counters have, only moreso. Fortunately, Baccarat is a fun game in and of itself, so you don't have to sit there not betting for 475 hands waiting for the planets to align.

It is pretty cool that they're paying out 10:1 on Ties instead of 8:1 or 9:1. Definitely something to chew on there!
Wizard
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Wizard
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July 4th, 2012 at 8:43:48 PM permalink
They used to pay 9 to 1 on a tie at Binion's. Bovada has always paid 9 to 1. My page on baccarat indicates the house edge under the 9 to 1 rules as 4.844% with eight decks.

Now, if I may ask you a question, do they have the game Dragon Tiger in Cambodia?
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
senee
senee
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July 4th, 2012 at 9:08:17 PM permalink
Quote: heather

I've never had the pleasure of playing Baccarat in Cambodia. What's penetration like in Poi Pet? I ask because, if you're interested in ties, they start to get countable towards the end of the shoe (although the cut card normally keeps this from being anything more than a vaguely interesting observation).

Although I'm sure that you've already seen it, the Wizard has a page here that shows an increase in positive expectation for tie bets by a factor of one thousand if penetration is increased from 90% to 98%. So, depending on how deep into the shoe they go in Poi Pet, you could have something potentially useful. Although, as that page also notes, to only bet on ties when the penetration is very deep would require one to sit through quite a few hands waiting for the shoe to go "hot". Same problem that Blackjack card counters have, only moreso. Fortunately, Baccarat is a fun game in and of itself, so you don't have to sit there not betting for 475 hands waiting for the planets to align.

It is pretty cool that they're paying out 10:1 on Ties instead of 8:1 or 9:1. Definitely something to chew on there!



----

Thank you for reply.

Actually, i have just started visiting Cambodia Casino couple of months ago.
As i "observed", the penetrations were quite deep. Usually in play around 7 decks (or less), so it is around 85-90% penetration.
Quite opposite to Blackjack shoes which they cut shallow, remain unplay for at least 2 decks (penetrate 70%-75%).
That's why i quit card counting on blackjack.

At first, i also couldn't believe they pay at 10 to 1 for tie bet because i think casino will definitely know that tie game has probability of 9.5% (pay rate must be lower than 9.5 to 1 for house advantage), but i has already confirmed.

Yes, it will not be fun at all to only always bet on tie. How about thinking of it as a bonus (if there is advantage)? Have fun betting Banker or Player as usual while always bet on tie. Or... hire someone to bet and only check at the end of each shoe.

I will visit Poi Pet again this weekend. But i will first check for minimum tie occurence on every shoes to see at least 3 tie games and may test actual tie bet for 5-10 shoes if it's profitable.
senee
senee
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July 4th, 2012 at 9:12:27 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

They used to pay 9 to 1 on a tie at Binion's. Bovada has always paid 9 to 1. My page on baccarat indicates the house edge under the 9 to 1 rules as 4.844% with eight decks.

Now, if I may ask you a question, do they have the game Dragon Tiger in Cambodia?



Thank you for reply.
Yes, there are Dragon-Tiger in some Casino, but not many. I saw it only in Golden Crown and Genting Crown. Strangly, for Dragon-Tiger, they bet with cash not casino chips. I don't know why...
heather
heather
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July 4th, 2012 at 10:04:01 PM permalink
Quote: senee

As i "observed", the penetrations were quite deep. Usually in play around 7 decks (or less), so it is around 85-90% penetration.
Quite opposite to Blackjack shoes which they cut shallow, remain unplay for at least 2 decks (penetrate 70%-75%).



The smaller number of decks may make penetration seem greater than normal. What I'm used to seeing is an eight deck shoe with the cut card placed either 14 or 16 cards from the end. In the US, you can normally get them to deal a hand past the cut card if you're using the Macau-style scoring system, or act superstitious about it. Sometimes you can get them to show you the rest of the cards if you're curious, but I've never had luck trying to get more than one extra hand dealt out of the shoe. No idea how it is in Cambodia, but I would guess that it would be more difficult to get the dealers to do that sort of thing, Baccarat being a lot more popular in East Asia, and not as much of a high-end game where the staff are going out of their way to cater to players.

I hadn't thought about it earlier, but there might be other aspects of dealing Baccarat that are different in Poi Pet. Do they let you see the cards that get burned at the beginning, at least after the first one that determines how many will be burned? Could mess up an attempt to count if they don't.


Quote: senee

At first, i also couldn't believe they pay at 10 to 1 for tie bet because i think casino will definitely know that tie game has probability of 9.5% (pay rate must be lower than 9.5 to 1 for house advantage), but i has already confirmed.



Wow; that's amazing. Never had any interest in visiting Cambodia until now. You're absolutely right; you could always bet Tie and come out ahead even without counting. Doesn't mean that it wouldn't still be fun to try, however ....

Quote: senee

Yes, it will not be fun at all to only always bet on tie. How about thinking of it as a bonus (if there is advantage)? Have fun betting Banker or Player as usual while always bet on tie. Or... hire someone to bet and only check at the end of each shoe.



I had a system of betting in Baccarat at one point where I was betting both Banker and Tie on every hand. It worked out really well for me, but I don't remember exactly what I was doing now (could probably figure it out if I needed to, though). What's nice about betting one of the main bets along with Tie is that you can bet less than the table minimum on the tie bet.
senee
senee
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July 4th, 2012 at 11:12:12 PM permalink
Quote: heather

The smaller number of decks may make penetration seem greater than normal. What I'm used to seeing is an eight deck shoe with the cut card placed either 14 or 16 cards from the end. In the US, you can normally get them to deal a hand past the cut card if you're using the Macau-style scoring system, or act superstitious about it. Sometimes you can get them to show you the rest of the cards if you're curious, but I've never had luck trying to get more than one extra hand dealt out of the shoe. No idea how it is in Cambodia, but I would guess that it would be more difficult to get the dealers to do that sort of thing, Baccarat being a lot more popular in East Asia, and not as much of a high-end game where the staff are going out of their way to cater to players.

I hadn't thought about it earlier, but there might be other aspects of dealing Baccarat that are different in Poi Pet. Do they let you see the cards that get burned at the beginning, at least after the first one that determines how many will be burned? Could mess up an attempt to count if they don't.



In most casinos in Poi Pet, baccarat tables usually occupied 80% of tables. I usually play in a casino called Star Vegas, they have like 30 baccarat tables, 1 Casino war, 1 Pok-Daeng, 2 Tri Card Poker, 1 Caribbean Poker, and 3 Blackjack (8 Decks, HS17, No Hole Card, DD on 9-10-11, split 2 times, Early Surrender). As you can see, baccarat is also quite popular there in Cambodia.

I never see less than 8 decks baccarat in Poi Pet. If i estimate correctly, cut card always be placed around one deck. After the cards are shuffled manually and put into the shoe. The first card will be shown to determine how many cards to burn out for that shoe (burn out according to first card value). It is absolutely not possible to see burnt out card (both at the beginning and before each turn). No matter how curious i am, it is not possible to ask to see the rest cards.


Quote: heather

Wow; that's amazing. Never had any interest in visiting Cambodia until now. You're absolutely right; you could always bet Tie and come out ahead even without counting. Doesn't mean that it wouldn't still be fun to try, however ....

I had a system of betting in Baccarat at one point where I was betting both Banker and Tie on every hand. It worked out really well for me, but I don't remember exactly what I was doing now (could probably figure it out if I needed to, though). What's nice about betting one of the main bets along with Tie is that you can bet less than the table minimum on the tie bet.



I don't know, but i don't think to count card for baccarat. It will burn my brain before i gain.
You're lucky to have working bet system. No matter how i try to figure out (patterns, pascal number, balance and unbalance, cards repetition, etc), i still cannot find system that work at least 75%.
This is the first time i see light in the darkness that i may have advantage... to bet on tie.
heather
heather
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July 5th, 2012 at 5:08:09 AM permalink
I think you're probably doing the right thing by always betting Tie and betting Player/Banker as usual at the same time. I am sure that the house understands their payouts and (if Cambodian casinos are anything like US casinos), they would probably try to move you to another game if you just sat there betting Tie without any other bets on every hand.

I would definitely try to take advantage of this situation while you can. Things could change at any time.

Quote: senee

I don't know, but i don't think to count card for baccarat. It will burn my brain before i gain.



No need to, really, with payouts like that. I just thought that counting for the Tie might be the next thing to explore. It sounds like your penetration might actually be lower than US penetration, though, but, again, no need to count for ties when the Tie bet pays better than true odds anyway. (Although I personally dislike the B6/no commission rule, it's hardly a dealbreaker here, because the unusual Tie payout makes up for it.)

Quote: senee

You're lucky to have working bet system. No matter how i try to figure out (patterns, pascal number, balance and unbalance, cards repetition, etc), i still cannot find system that work at least 75%.



If I recall correctly, I was just martingale betting Banker and Tie simultaneously starting at a 7:1 proportion and starting over if either bet paid. I could be wrong (I play differently now). If I get a chance latter I'll try doing that at an online casino and see if it feels right. The problem with online Baccarat, though, is that nobody offers a wide enough range of betting limits to really get anywhere with martingales. At real casinos in the US, I frequently see Baccarat table limits as being $100min/$10000 max, so you can get a pretty good spread in if your bankroll can take it.

What are minimums and maximums in Poi Pet? I'm mostly interested in how much you could hope to cover with progressive betting. Another question would be about player's clubs and comps -- do they exist there/are they any good? You could possibly factor some extra value into your bets that way.

Good luck -- definitely sounds like a fun place to play! One day I gotta go to some of these East Asian casinos where Baccarat is the most popular game. It seems to be getting harder to find here in the US, unfortunately.
Wizard
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Wizard
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July 5th, 2012 at 6:01:13 AM permalink
I tend to doubt anyone is paying 10 to 1. That would have a 4.67% player advantage. Perhaps they are paying 10 for 1.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.

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