MLB picks

Quote: avargov

Ok, thanks for that. Quite a roller coaster ride. Now if you will, and if you have time, divide your win/loss (I think it is $221?) by your total amount wagered. That would be your "true" return on investment, since you have "invested" money everyday to see the $221 return.

I am trying to get you to not delude yourself into thinking your ROI up to this point (4/26-present) is in the 20% range.

Quote: steeldco

I would challenge anyone to tell me where ANYTHING that I have stated is incorrect.

Quote: steeldco

That's not the amount invested. I've listed the amount necessary every day in the recent prior posts.

avargov, you're seem like a good person. Look at how ROI is computed. I know you may think that I'm lying or something, but I'm calculating the return correctly and conservatively. I can assure you that if I can achieve a 30% ROI, as I've calculated it, then I can turn $30K into $ 1 million awfully quickly. Quickly as in 4-5 years.

Quote: steeldco

That's not the amount invested. I've listed the amount necessary every day in the recent prior posts.

Quote: avargov

Technically it isn't. I guess I am just trying to show you what I consider a better way to analyze your formula.

Consider this, imagine you are a slot player. You invest $100 into a machine that has a 90% return. You roll through that money 1 time. You have a balance of $90. a ROI of -10%. You run the $90 through one time, you are left with $81. ROI of -19%. However, the machine returned 90%, just as advertised, taking only 10% of your money, because you actually "invested" $190 through the machine, in 190 independent $1 bets.

Anyway, I guess we are comparing apples to oranges. Your formula is showing a profit of $2.30 a day. Either up your bets or start flipping a coin, that wouldn't even pay the juice on the $1400 or so you were down before April 26th.

Quote: steeldco

avargov,
there is an old saying that goes " ya gotta have money to make money".
It's pretty much true. For example, if my ROI holds up........and it very well may not, then with the right amount of initial capital I can easily knock down a very large profit annually. Huge. That ROI is critical to understanding where best to place your money. A typical investment these days returns 2% or even less. If you can achieve 30%, you'd be nothing short of a spectacular performer. I'm not there. Don't profess to be. But I hope to be.

Quote: SOOPOO

I now understand steel's thinking, and will show why it won'y work. If you define your "ROI" based on a starting bankroll of say, $1000, and at some point you are up $300, you say your ROI is 30%. So what you are saying is that you will risk YOUR ENTIRE bankroll to gain 30%. You would succeed trying this at any low variance casino game (pai gow, baccarat, blackjack, pass line craps) far more often than you would fail.
But using your system you likely will have made bets, even starting with a 'bankroll' (bankroll in this case just really means how much you are willing to lose) of $1000, of tens if not hundreds of thousands of dollars. So winning $300 after 300 $100 bets really means that you are making 1% on each investment, not 30% on an investment.

Quote: SOOPOO

So winning $300 after 300 $100 bets really means that you are making 1% on each investment, not 30% on an investment.

Quote: SOOPOO

So winning $300 after 300 $100 bets really means that you are making 1% on each investment, not 30% on an investment.

Quote: SOOPOO

I now understand steel's thinking, and will show why it won'y work. If you define your "ROI" based on a starting bankroll of say, $1000, and at some point you are up $300, you say your ROI is 30%. So what you are saying is that you will risk YOUR ENTIRE bankroll to gain 30%. You would succeed trying this at any low variance casino game (pai gow, baccarat, blackjack, pass line craps) far more often than you would fail.
But using your system you likely will have made bets, even starting with a 'bankroll' (bankroll in this case just really means how much you are willing to lose) of $1000, of tens if not hundreds of thousands of dollars. So winning $300 after 300 $100 bets really means that you are making 1% on each investment, not 30% on an investment.

Quote: steeldco

good morning avargov,
i think that i have previously stated that one of my many weaknesses is an inability to properly articulate my thoughts and this is just another instance of it. all i can suggest is that you take some time and research how ROI is calculated.

Quote: steeldco

soopoo, i'm not sure if this would be helpful to you.........but here it goes. let's look at it using a bank savings account and apply your logic. lets say that i have an account at a bank that pays 2% interest on my balance. according to your logic, if i had $100 and deposited it at the beginning of the day and then withdrew it at the end of the day only to deposit it the next day, for 300 consecutive days, the bank should have to pay me 2% on $30,000? No. They would pay me 2% on $100.

Quote: steeldco

7craps, in the above set of plays, there was a cash need of 16.4 on April 15th. That would be your investment. Since there was a loss at the end of 14.1, the ROI would have been a negative -85.45. I would have lost 14.1 of my total needed investment of 16.4, or -85.45%. That would be the ROI. NOT -17.09%.

Quote: steeldco

Actually, a correction here. The -85.45% would be your return. NOT the ROI since it would need to annualized and therefore the ROI is actually something well in excess of -400% since the -85.45% return was over a 2 month or so period.

Quote: 7craps

You are now trying to tell me and my investors that after making 82.5 units wagered from your NBA picks, my return is NOT -17.09%?

I really see My return is 82.91%.

The NBA season now has to be annualized to show my investors that your picks returned -400%???

The 16.4 units was the bankroll invested. Depends on the accounting method applied.

Using the non-simple ROI formula
(-14.1) - (-16.4) / -16.4 = -0.140243902 * 100 = -14% ROI

I show the -14% ROI to my investors

You show the -400% to your investors

Quote: mustangsally

I am not an accountant, I do know one, so here is what I see...

$100 savings and after the first year I now have $105.
I made $5.
5/100

$100 savings and in one month I made $5 so I now have $105.
5/100

The cost of my investment was the same. $100.
I made $5 in each case.

Is ROI always a yearly value?
Looks to me to be many ways to express it depending on what value you want to return.

Sally

Quote: thecesspit

Betting RoI's I've never seen annualized. To me it's meaningless to annualize it...

RoI should be a simple function of money in/money out, so you have a reasonable idea of what each bet earns you.

If RoI is the wrong term to use, due to confusion with a business metric, then choose a different term.

Quote: steeldco

The below is from a website www.1101sports.com. They have an ROI calculator on the site and the below are the results for someone wanting to wager $100 per play. Note that it properly calculates ROI based upon the balance started with and NOT the sum total of all bets made. This is the correct way to compute an ROI and note that they do it for a Year.

In the interest of fair reporting, however, I have found websites that calculate it based upon the sum total of all the wagers. This is the WRONG methodology if you want true ROIs to compare to other investments.

Quote: steeldco

"If we start with $5,000 in our sports betting account, and after a year of making some solid progress our initial balance is now $6,000 yes we can say that our return on investment over 12 months has been 20%. We come to this figure by dividing the $1,000 profit by our initial stake of $5,000 and then multiply it by 100 to get a 20% return. If we lost $1,000 our return on investment would be -20%.

Quote: duckston09

Anyway, I wanted to bring up what I feel interesting pertaining to the Atlanta Braves.
If they lose tonight, they will be two shy of what Baltimore did in the 2009-2010 season.
Baltimore lost 20 Mondays in a row.
Atlanta is 0 -13 this year and played seven home games and six away games.
They scored a total of ten runs at home and ten runs on the road.
They never exceeded more than eight hits in all 13 games.
They are heavy favorites tonight over Miami. Atlanta hasn't won on a Monday since August 22 of last season. Just thought someone might find that interesting.

Quote: mustangsally

I think this is easy to follow. But I see a problem.

ALL $5,000 was not not ask risk at any one bet or possibly during the season of betting.

When you buy $5,000 worth of stock, ALL of your $5,000 is now at risk. so Net/$5000 makes sense.

You start a business and spend $5000 to start up
but have $100,000 sitting in the bank and your year profit after expenses is $20,000

is it 20,000/5,000
or
20,000/105000

Sally