MLB picks
May 22nd, 2012 at 3:35:41 AM
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A net loss yesterday of -115 which took the YTD to a net win of +1,337. There were 2 +130dogs, which split for a net win of +37 and that YTD is now a net gain of +1,935. Not happy with the fact that we've now had 2 consecutive losing days, however, I am happy with the fact that they have been small losses.
Today's slate of picks are:
Kansas City Royals 168
Boston Red Sox -118
Miami Marlins -127
Chicago Cubs 114
San Francisco Giants 105
Today's slate of picks are:
Kansas City Royals 168
Boston Red Sox -118
Miami Marlins -127
Chicago Cubs 114
San Francisco Giants 105
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 23rd, 2012 at 6:12:16 AM
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WTF. Yesterday was a net loss of -113 which brought the YTD to +1,224. Even a +130dog lost and that YTD is now +1,835. That's the 3rd. consecutive losing day. Being a positive thinker, I mention the following, although we've lost on 4 days out of the last 8 days, it has been for a total of -420. However, on the 4 winning days out of the last 8, we've had net winnings totaling +1,050. I guess I will take that trade...............here's hoping for a winning day.
Today's games:
Tampa Bay Rays -113
Washington Nationals 150
Cleveland Indians 108
Chicago White Sox -155
Los Angeles Dodgers -105
Today's games:
Tampa Bay Rays -113
Washington Nationals 150
Cleveland Indians 108
Chicago White Sox -155
Los Angeles Dodgers -105
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 23rd, 2012 at 7:11:24 AM
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Do you think you have enough of a sample size yet to prove that you should just bet your dogs, and leave the rest alone?
May 23rd, 2012 at 8:41:33 AM
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FinsRule, I had thought about it, however, the YTD numbers are somewhat deceiving since I had made a major change to the formula on April 26th. Since that time the total net win on ALL picks is +2,419 while the +130dogs over that same period are a total of +1,799. In addition, I've made a couple of other smaller tweaks since then that seem to have improved the net win but it is too early to tell as to size of their impact. For example, in today's picks is a favorite
(the Chicago White Sox) that prior to 05/18 would not have been a pick. The formula for this additional pick is 2 and 0 YTD for a +200 and therefore is too small a sample size yet to ascertain whether it is worth continuing. To sum it up, right now, I believe that the overall is performing better than just picking the +130dogs.
As an FYI, since April 26th. the formula has produced 149 picks and the record is 81 and 68 for a win rate of 54.36%.
(the Chicago White Sox) that prior to 05/18 would not have been a pick. The formula for this additional pick is 2 and 0 YTD for a +200 and therefore is too small a sample size yet to ascertain whether it is worth continuing. To sum it up, right now, I believe that the overall is performing better than just picking the +130dogs.
As an FYI, since April 26th. the formula has produced 149 picks and the record is 81 and 68 for a win rate of 54.36%.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 23rd, 2012 at 9:40:54 AM
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FWIW, here's the breakdown by day since 04/26:
Date +130dogs Others Total
4/26/2012 315 -103 212
4/27/2012 -100 -160 -260
4/28/2012 -100 173 73
4/29/2012 -100 72 -28
4/30/2012 -150 -110 -260
5/1/2012 56 115 171
5/2/2012 275 0 275
5/3/2012 142 108 250
5/4/2012 189 -113 76
5/5/2012 103 103
5/6/2012 154 100 254
5/7/2012 157 179 336
5/8/2012 346 -10 336
5/9/2012 -6 -6
5/10/2012 -100 0 -100
5/11/2012 -200 -442 -642
5/12/2012 55 342 397
5/13/2012 140 16 156
5/14/2012 577 -131 446
5/15/2012 -200 116 -84
5/16/2012 170 250 420
5/17/2012 56 116 172
5/18/2012 135 311 446
5/19/2012 145 -133 12
5/20/2012 -100 -8 -108
5/21/2012 37 -152 -115
5/22/2012 -100 -13 -113
Total 1799 620 2419
Date +130dogs Others Total
4/26/2012 315 -103 212
4/27/2012 -100 -160 -260
4/28/2012 -100 173 73
4/29/2012 -100 72 -28
4/30/2012 -150 -110 -260
5/1/2012 56 115 171
5/2/2012 275 0 275
5/3/2012 142 108 250
5/4/2012 189 -113 76
5/5/2012 103 103
5/6/2012 154 100 254
5/7/2012 157 179 336
5/8/2012 346 -10 336
5/9/2012 -6 -6
5/10/2012 -100 0 -100
5/11/2012 -200 -442 -642
5/12/2012 55 342 397
5/13/2012 140 16 156
5/14/2012 577 -131 446
5/15/2012 -200 116 -84
5/16/2012 170 250 420
5/17/2012 56 116 172
5/18/2012 135 311 446
5/19/2012 145 -133 12
5/20/2012 -100 -8 -108
5/21/2012 37 -152 -115
5/22/2012 -100 -13 -113
Total 1799 620 2419
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 23rd, 2012 at 3:46:55 PM
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I find the below somewhat interesting. It's the results by day of the week.
Row Labels Sum of +130dogs Sum of Others Sum of Total
Sunday 94 180 274
Monday 621 -214 407
Tuesday 102 208 310
Wednesday 445 244 689
Thursday 413 121 534
Friday 24 -404 -380
Saturday 100 485 585
Grand Total 1799 620 2419
Row Labels Sum of +130dogs Sum of Others Sum of Total
Sunday 94 180 274
Monday 621 -214 407
Tuesday 102 208 310
Wednesday 445 244 689
Thursday 413 121 534
Friday 24 -404 -380
Saturday 100 485 585
Grand Total 1799 620 2419
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 23rd, 2012 at 4:04:57 PM
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Fridays seem to make alot of sense since I have previously discovered that I need to lay off of any game in which one of the teams had traveled the day before.
These numbers seem to support that theory.............
These numbers seem to support that theory.............
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 23rd, 2012 at 4:06:15 PM
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"had traveled the day before". I meant to say "had a day off before".
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 24th, 2012 at 5:42:55 AM
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Okay. The consecutive day losing streak was again stopped at 3 days. Yesterday was a net win of +103 which took the YTD to +1,327. The +130dogs had a loser for a net loss of -100 and the YTD on those is now +1,735. Also, with the White Sox win, the newest tweak to the formula has added 3 winners and 0 losers so far.
There is only 1 pick today.
St. Louis Cardinals -144
There is only 1 pick today.
St. Louis Cardinals -144
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 24th, 2012 at 8:40:51 AM
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So should I be doubling up on Wednesdays and not picking on Fridays?
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 25th, 2012 at 3:32:10 AM
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Wow. This been boring the past few days.......up a unit.....down a unit.....down a unit. Yesterday was a net loss of -144 and YTD is now a net win of +1,183.
There were no +130dogs yesterday and that YTD stayed at a net win of +1,735.
Fridays have been terrible. I have a feeling though that today will be a little regression to the mean......we'll win.
Today's picks are:
San Francisco Giants 130
San Diego Padres 105
Minnesota Twins 127
Chicago White Sox -107
Philadelphia Phillies -118
There were no +130dogs yesterday and that YTD stayed at a net win of +1,735.
Fridays have been terrible. I have a feeling though that today will be a little regression to the mean......we'll win.
Today's picks are:
San Francisco Giants 130
San Diego Padres 105
Minnesota Twins 127
Chicago White Sox -107
Philadelphia Phillies -118
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 25th, 2012 at 4:45:12 AM
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Quote: FinsRulePrediction - Done picking by Memorial Day.
Memorial Day Weekend is here and he's up over 1k. Sometimes there are too many haters on this board.
EvenBob: "Look America, I have a tiny wee-wee, can anybody
help me?"
May 25th, 2012 at 8:09:12 AM
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I'll admit I was half wrong.
His picks in the beginning were more favorites and I didn't think he could survive doing it. He changed his formula, and is doing better.
His picks in the beginning were more favorites and I didn't think he could survive doing it. He changed his formula, and is doing better.
May 25th, 2012 at 12:08:16 PM
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Quote: JimMorrisonMemorial Day Weekend is here and he's up over 1k. Sometimes there are too many haters on this board.
Jim,
Thank you and as long you bring it up, I ask this...........
I dabble in the stock market and visit and post on stock message boards. The one thing that I have found is that there is just a whole bunch of hatred in the posts. Many times even when you've shown to do well. So here's my question........what happened to the Great American people who used to support and root for the underdog? Why the hatred for those who are simply trying to do their best? I guess I don't fault a guy like Fins since I was doing pretty poorly but for others to cut a guy off at the knees just when he's starting.......naw. Not the Americans that I remember.......root for the guys who at least put forth an effort. Root for them and maybe, just maybe, good things will happen for you.
Okay. I'll get off my soap box.........but thanks again Jim.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 25th, 2012 at 12:50:23 PM
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Steel, I want you to do well for sure. I want everyone to do well. But I know that to win, you need a formula that can identify the right underdogs to bet on. Maybe you've found it...
I'll be in Vegas this weekend. I'll be looking at the +130 MLB bets a little closer that usual.
I'll be in Vegas this weekend. I'll be looking at the +130 MLB bets a little closer that usual.
May 25th, 2012 at 2:05:56 PM
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Thanks FinsRule. Good Luck in Vegas! Take down a house or two..........
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 25th, 2012 at 3:41:37 PM
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Just for grins...........these are the picks that, in the past, would have been included. I have excluded these based upon my thesis that because a team involved in each of these games was off yesterday it screwed up my formula and therefore should be left off. If I'm correct, each of these will be losers. These will NOT be counted in my record for the year. This is only in the interest of being transparent and also looking to see whether there is a reason to start including the flipside of these picks.
Baltimore Orioles -136
Arizona DiamondBacks -125
New York Yankees -140
Hopefully all three lose so that I won't be left feelin' like an ass..........
Baltimore Orioles -136
Arizona DiamondBacks -125
New York Yankees -140
Hopefully all three lose so that I won't be left feelin' like an ass..........
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 26th, 2012 at 7:19:24 AM
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Yesterday was one of those days that left me scratching my head and since i can't scratch my head and type at the same time, I'll withhold further comment.
We had a net loss of -100 which brought the YTD to +1,083. The +130dogs also had a loss for -100 and its YTD is now +1,635.
Also, somewhat feeling like an ass, I had left off 3 games of which 2 were winners. That's okay. Maybe my theory wasn't validated but it won't be done in just a day. Lastly, again as a positive thinker, I see that we have had 5 losing days out of the last 6. But they have only amounted to a net loss of -477. It's a loss, but a minimal one. I look forward to a big day............hopefully it will be to the positive side.
Today's picks:
Detroit Tigers -129
Toronto Blue Jays 167
Oakland Athletics 156
San Francisco Giants 110
Chicago White Sox -141
Chicago Cubs 109
Philadelphia Phillies 150
Tampa Bay Rays 110
Houston Astros 110
Milwaukee Brewers -119
We had a net loss of -100 which brought the YTD to +1,083. The +130dogs also had a loss for -100 and its YTD is now +1,635.
Also, somewhat feeling like an ass, I had left off 3 games of which 2 were winners. That's okay. Maybe my theory wasn't validated but it won't be done in just a day. Lastly, again as a positive thinker, I see that we have had 5 losing days out of the last 6. But they have only amounted to a net loss of -477. It's a loss, but a minimal one. I look forward to a big day............hopefully it will be to the positive side.
Today's picks:
Detroit Tigers -129
Toronto Blue Jays 167
Oakland Athletics 156
San Francisco Giants 110
Chicago White Sox -141
Chicago Cubs 109
Philadelphia Phillies 150
Tampa Bay Rays 110
Houston Astros 110
Milwaukee Brewers -119
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 27th, 2012 at 6:22:15 AM
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I kinda thought that things were due to break open a little.....unfortunately, yesterday was to the downside. It was our worst day since 05/11, 16 days ago.
It was a good run since 05/11 but we have again hit 3 consecutive losing days for the 2nd. time since then. Hopefully the streak ends here. The net loss yesterday was -369 which took the YTD to +714. The +130dogs had a net loss of -50 and its YTD is now +1,585. Today's picks are:
San Diego Padres 130
Tampa Bay Rays 104
Chicago White Sox -147
Toronto Blue Jays 180
New York Yankees -123
Houston Astros 140
Arizona DiamondBacks -142
Seattle Mariners 140
One note, the San Diego Padres and Tampa Bay Rays are the result of a small change in formula. Previously, these would not have been picked. I ran across a trend that, thru some back testing since 04/26, showed a 16 and 7 record.
It was a good run since 05/11 but we have again hit 3 consecutive losing days for the 2nd. time since then. Hopefully the streak ends here. The net loss yesterday was -369 which took the YTD to +714. The +130dogs had a net loss of -50 and its YTD is now +1,585. Today's picks are:
San Diego Padres 130
Tampa Bay Rays 104
Chicago White Sox -147
Toronto Blue Jays 180
New York Yankees -123
Houston Astros 140
Arizona DiamondBacks -142
Seattle Mariners 140
One note, the San Diego Padres and Tampa Bay Rays are the result of a small change in formula. Previously, these would not have been picked. I ran across a trend that, thru some back testing since 04/26, showed a 16 and 7 record.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 27th, 2012 at 8:19:53 AM
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Quote: steeldcoOne note, the San Diego Padres and Tampa Bay Rays are the result of a small change in formula. Previously, these would not have been picked. I ran across a trend that, thru some back testing since 04/26, showed a 16 and 7 record.
I think I posted something like this earlier, but posts don't cost anything, so what the heck...
CHECK YOUR FORMULA against last season! You'll have all results from all games. I'm guessing you can also find what the odds were. It seems like you are still in a search for a formula that will work. If you are changing the formula because of a 16 out of 23 streak, then you are still searching....
May 27th, 2012 at 8:30:15 AM
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Of course. I am constantly searching. I cannot take the time to go thru the entire last season. I don't have it. It would take several solid weeks.
Even if I run across something that hits 99%, I will change if I see an improvement that can be made. It's the hunt...........
Even if I run across something that hits 99%, I will change if I see an improvement that can be made. It's the hunt...........
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 27th, 2012 at 8:33:33 AM
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Besides.....if I came on here and said that I had checked last year's results and I had 65% winners to the tune of XX,XXX, would you believe me? You shouldn't. So then what is the point? I can satisfy myself that what I am doing will yield what it has? Not good enough.....I need improvement.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 28th, 2012 at 7:59:45 AM
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There's good news and there's bad news. The good news was that yesterday was a net win of +4.....lol, but it broke the 3 consecutive day losing streak. So far this year, consecutive losing days have not exceeded 3. YTD is now +718.
The bad news is that the +130dogs went 0 and 4 and have now lost 11 of the last 13. Worst streak for them ever. The YTD on them now stands at +1,185.
The new additional picks with the formula change went 1 and 1.
Today's picks are:
Pittsburgh Pirates -105
Detroit Tigers 125
Minnesota Twins -136
San Diego Padres 126
Houston Astros 106
Chicago White Sox 103
Kansas City Royals 120
Toronto Blue Jays -130
Seattle Mariners 180
Los Angeles Dodgers -110
The most recent formula change had added San Diego and Houston to the above list.
Lastly, although it's been a terrible week, or 8 days, today begins a whole new slate of games with different opponents. The average loss for the past 8 days has been -105 per day. If this is as bad as it gets then we'll end up doing awfully well because I saw nothing that would cause me to think that something has changed in the way the formula works. It was just a down cycle. I'll just attribute it to bad pairings. We'll see.
A new day has dawned and I look forward to winning a bunch..........
The bad news is that the +130dogs went 0 and 4 and have now lost 11 of the last 13. Worst streak for them ever. The YTD on them now stands at +1,185.
The new additional picks with the formula change went 1 and 1.
Today's picks are:
Pittsburgh Pirates -105
Detroit Tigers 125
Minnesota Twins -136
San Diego Padres 126
Houston Astros 106
Chicago White Sox 103
Kansas City Royals 120
Toronto Blue Jays -130
Seattle Mariners 180
Los Angeles Dodgers -110
The most recent formula change had added San Diego and Houston to the above list.
Lastly, although it's been a terrible week, or 8 days, today begins a whole new slate of games with different opponents. The average loss for the past 8 days has been -105 per day. If this is as bad as it gets then we'll end up doing awfully well because I saw nothing that would cause me to think that something has changed in the way the formula works. It was just a down cycle. I'll just attribute it to bad pairings. We'll see.
A new day has dawned and I look forward to winning a bunch..........
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 28th, 2012 at 8:06:51 AM
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Quote: avargovI remember an old timer telling me once that as long as you are betting on people, there is no way you can win in the end. I believe him.
That should be betting on other people. I bet on myself no problem, but not others, ever.
"Poker sure is an easy game to beat if you have the roll to keep rebuying."
May 29th, 2012 at 9:25:35 AM
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Yesterday was a net loss of -207 and YTD is now +511. The +130dogs were -100 and YTD is +1,085.
Today's picks are:
Chicago Cubs -143
Cleveland Indians -147
St. Louis Cardinals EV
New York Mets 104
Boston Red Sox 144
LA Angels of Anaheim -130
Today's picks are:
Chicago Cubs -143
Cleveland Indians -147
St. Louis Cardinals EV
New York Mets 104
Boston Red Sox 144
LA Angels of Anaheim -130
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 30th, 2012 at 5:15:50 AM
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We had a net win yesterday of +201 and our YTD now stands at +712. The +130dogs was a winner for +144 and its YTD is now +1,229.
Today's picks are:
San Francisco Giants -124
Cleveland Indians -122
Detroit Tigers 135
Seattle Mariners 220
Today's picks are:
San Francisco Giants -124
Cleveland Indians -122
Detroit Tigers 135
Seattle Mariners 220
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 31st, 2012 at 3:58:05 AM
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Yesterday, despite a nice pick and winner with Seattle, was a net loss of -126. YTD is now +586. The +130dogs was a net win of +220 and its YTD is now +1,449.
Today's picks are:
Boston Red Sox -138
Houston Astros 109
Milwaukee Brewers -118
Today's picks are:
Boston Red Sox -138
Houston Astros 109
Milwaukee Brewers -118
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 1st, 2012 at 6:30:08 AM
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Only won 1 out of 3 yesterday for a net loss of -138 which left the YTD at +448. There were no +130dogs yesterday. Its YTD remains at +1,449.
There is only 1 pick today since most teams did not play yesterday:
Colorado Rockies -110
There is only 1 pick today since most teams did not play yesterday:
Colorado Rockies -110
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 2nd, 2012 at 7:54:13 AM
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Yesterday was a net win of +100 and YTD is now +548. There were no +130dogs.
I woke up feeling like we were going to go off on a nice run starting today......until I saw that today's picks yielded 4 favorites out of the 6 total.......
Today's picks are:
Miami Marlins 142
St. Louis Cardinals -108
Colorado Rockies -138
Pittsburgh Pirates 130
Detroit Tigers -101
Cleveland Indians -136
I woke up feeling like we were going to go off on a nice run starting today......until I saw that today's picks yielded 4 favorites out of the 6 total.......
Today's picks are:
Miami Marlins 142
St. Louis Cardinals -108
Colorado Rockies -138
Pittsburgh Pirates 130
Detroit Tigers -101
Cleveland Indians -136
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 3rd, 2012 at 7:45:21 AM
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Yesterday was a net loss of -240 and my YTD is now +308. The +130dogs yesterday were a net win of +42 and its YTD is now +1,491.
Looking back it's been a fairly miserable 14 days. I've looked and cannot spot an underlying reason or trend. I continue to believe that this down cycle is going to end. Maybe today......... since we finally have a slate where most of the picks are underdogs. Today's picks are:
Boston Red Sox 107
Philadelphia Phillies -103
Houston Astros 134
Oakland Athletics 111
Seattle Mariners 166
Los Angeles Dodgers 111
Texas Rangers -105
Chicago Cubs 132
Arizona DiamondBacks -117
New York Mets -102
Looking back it's been a fairly miserable 14 days. I've looked and cannot spot an underlying reason or trend. I continue to believe that this down cycle is going to end. Maybe today......... since we finally have a slate where most of the picks are underdogs. Today's picks are:
Boston Red Sox 107
Philadelphia Phillies -103
Houston Astros 134
Oakland Athletics 111
Seattle Mariners 166
Los Angeles Dodgers 111
Texas Rangers -105
Chicago Cubs 132
Arizona DiamondBacks -117
New York Mets -102
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 4th, 2012 at 6:18:07 AM
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Wow, this is getting tiresome. Yesterday was a net loss of -169 and YTD is now +139. The +130dogs continue to lose but at a lesser rate. They were a net loss of -66 and their YTD is now +1,425.
I don't have anything in this other than my pride and sense of accomplishment and I find it difficult doing so poorly. How friggin' dumb is that? There are people with much greater problems in this world and I worry about feeling like an ass.............
Today's pick is, there's only 1 (and things WILL get better):
Texas Rangers -133
I don't have anything in this other than my pride and sense of accomplishment and I find it difficult doing so poorly. How friggin' dumb is that? There are people with much greater problems in this world and I worry about feeling like an ass.............
Today's pick is, there's only 1 (and things WILL get better):
Texas Rangers -133
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 4th, 2012 at 10:59:17 AM
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Brother.....I am proud that you continue the fight. However, it is fruitless. Whatever wins and losses you have accrued to this point have nothing to do with whatever formulas you are trying to develop. I contend, and I think it was Face or AZDuffman, proved, that you can do just about as good flipping a coin.
As long as there are people playing on those baseball teams, you will not find a way to accurately predict winners with very much consistency. Just have fun with it, use your gut on occasion, and hope you can a little better than 52%.
With that being said, we have a kindred spirit, and I have enjoyed following this thread!
As long as there are people playing on those baseball teams, you will not find a way to accurately predict winners with very much consistency. Just have fun with it, use your gut on occasion, and hope you can a little better than 52%.
With that being said, we have a kindred spirit, and I have enjoyed following this thread!
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
June 4th, 2012 at 11:24:29 AM
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Avargov,
I disagree with you to a certain degree. I think it may be possible to develop a formula that can exploit some weakness in some lines. Games are still played by humans, so obviously nothing can be perfect. But considering lines are set with formulas, and bet on by humans, it's possible that there could be a formula that can beat a line.
Whether or not the OP has the formula is a completely different story.
I disagree with you to a certain degree. I think it may be possible to develop a formula that can exploit some weakness in some lines. Games are still played by humans, so obviously nothing can be perfect. But considering lines are set with formulas, and bet on by humans, it's possible that there could be a formula that can beat a line.
Whether or not the OP has the formula is a completely different story.
June 4th, 2012 at 12:29:15 PM
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Fins,
While I do not disagree with you that a formula could be developed to find and exploit a weakness in the "line", I stand behind my assertion that a formula to "beat" the line (winning bets consistently) if futile.
Lines are set "on paper", therefore, the formulas used to set the lines are based on stats, injuries, weather, et cetera....on paper. You know the old cliche about "that's why they play the game"...I have been doing this for many, many years. I have finally resigned myself to the fact that it can't be beaten long term.
But, I am pleased to see that there will always be those that keep looking and looking for the magic. It is alluring, the thought of easy money by coming up with a great formula or whatever. And I will continue to follow this, and many other threads just like it. I still have a great interest in sports betting in general, just choose not to wager my hard earned money anymore. And I also hope the OP continues to try to find the winning mix. Sadly, however, I think the ups and downs will continue, just like they have. And at the end of the day, he will be up or down, just a little, and it will be as good as flipping the coin.
Sorry for the ramble folks....really tired and scatterbrained at the moment....
While I do not disagree with you that a formula could be developed to find and exploit a weakness in the "line", I stand behind my assertion that a formula to "beat" the line (winning bets consistently) if futile.
Lines are set "on paper", therefore, the formulas used to set the lines are based on stats, injuries, weather, et cetera....on paper. You know the old cliche about "that's why they play the game"...I have been doing this for many, many years. I have finally resigned myself to the fact that it can't be beaten long term.
But, I am pleased to see that there will always be those that keep looking and looking for the magic. It is alluring, the thought of easy money by coming up with a great formula or whatever. And I will continue to follow this, and many other threads just like it. I still have a great interest in sports betting in general, just choose not to wager my hard earned money anymore. And I also hope the OP continues to try to find the winning mix. Sadly, however, I think the ups and downs will continue, just like they have. And at the end of the day, he will be up or down, just a little, and it will be as good as flipping the coin.
Sorry for the ramble folks....really tired and scatterbrained at the moment....
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
June 5th, 2012 at 3:37:54 AM
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Thanks to both FinsRule and avargov for their thoughts and comments. I obviously continue to believe that this can be accomplished so I am not giving up.
Yesterday was an 0-fer and a net loss of -133. YTD stands at a huge +6 net win. The +130dogs had no play and therefore remain at +1,425 for the YTD.
Dad used always say that if there's a problem then you've got to work to change it. It won't just go away. So I spent sometime looking at the last couple of weeks of picks and found a subset that seemed to do pretty well. They involved home teams under certain circumstances. Despite the fact that I normally would not make a change without acquiring more data, I'm going to go ahead and do it anyway. However, here's the thing......I do not want to change the formula for the picks being made currently since I think that ultimately there will be value there.....yet I want to have this subset play a larger part in the win/loss rate. So here's what I'm going to do, I'm going to list this subset as a 2X's play. Meaning 2 units will be wagered on these instead of 1. There are none of these today however.
Here's today's slate of picks:
Philadelphia Phillies -175
Arizona DiamondBacks -148
Oakland Athletics 150
Yesterday was an 0-fer and a net loss of -133. YTD stands at a huge +6 net win. The +130dogs had no play and therefore remain at +1,425 for the YTD.
Dad used always say that if there's a problem then you've got to work to change it. It won't just go away. So I spent sometime looking at the last couple of weeks of picks and found a subset that seemed to do pretty well. They involved home teams under certain circumstances. Despite the fact that I normally would not make a change without acquiring more data, I'm going to go ahead and do it anyway. However, here's the thing......I do not want to change the formula for the picks being made currently since I think that ultimately there will be value there.....yet I want to have this subset play a larger part in the win/loss rate. So here's what I'm going to do, I'm going to list this subset as a 2X's play. Meaning 2 units will be wagered on these instead of 1. There are none of these today however.
Here's today's slate of picks:
Philadelphia Phillies -175
Arizona DiamondBacks -148
Oakland Athletics 150
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 5th, 2012 at 6:35:30 AM
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Quote: steeldcoThanks to both FinsRule and avargov for their thoughts and comments. I obviously continue to believe that this can be accomplished so I am not giving up.
Yesterday was an 0-fer and a net loss of -133. YTD stands at a huge +6 net win. The +130dogs had no play and therefore remain at +1,425 for the YTD.
Am I interpretting this correctly that you are an abysmal -1,419 on all picks that are not at least +130 underdogs? So just flip your formula upside down every time it says to pick any team that is not in that category?
June 5th, 2012 at 9:33:23 AM
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Thanks. I appreciate the comments. However, at this time I'm not convinced that what you suggest is the answer. 3 weeks ago it wasn't. It is now. Might not be later. We'll see. This is a problem solving process and sometimes the obvious doesn't apply.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 5th, 2012 at 9:40:14 AM
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Am I interpreting this correctly that you are an abysmal -1,419 on all picks that are not at least +130 underdogs? So just flip your formula upside down every time it says to pick any team that is not in that category?
I suggested that prior to April 26. But there are none so blind as those who will not see.
Even if the truth hits them right in the wallet !
Sort of like saying I have this formula than can turn lead into GOLD, but I won't use it. Because I thought it would turn lead into steel. LOL
I suggested that prior to April 26. But there are none so blind as those who will not see.
Even if the truth hits them right in the wallet !
Sort of like saying I have this formula than can turn lead into GOLD, but I won't use it. Because I thought it would turn lead into steel. LOL
June 5th, 2012 at 3:19:09 PM
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Quote: buzzpaffAm I interpreting this correctly that you are an abysmal -1,419 on all picks that are not at least +130 underdogs? So just flip your formula upside down every time it says to pick any team that is not in that category?
I suggested that prior to April 26. But there are none so blind as those who will not see.
Even if the truth hits them right in the wallet !
Sort of like saying I have this formula than can turn lead into GOLD, but I won't use it. Because I thought it would turn lead into steel. LOL
Buzz, my man, I am just sitting back smiling!!! BTW, not to hijack a thread, but I was gonna message you as I met a friend of mine the other day on Towaoc. I know you are just up the street a piece in Grand Junction.
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
June 5th, 2012 at 3:44:44 PM
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When I moved here I said grand Junction was a one horse town. I have since apologized. TO THE HORSE !
June 6th, 2012 at 6:46:53 AM
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Well, it was not all too long ago (maybe 3 weeks?) that I stated that I would not see red again on a YTD basis.........the frequency of feelin' like an ass is getting to be ridiculous.
Yesterday was a net loss of -175 and YTD now stands at -169. The +130dogs was also a net loss of -100 and its YTD is now a net win of +1,325.
As I stated previously, my formula will remain unchanged, but there will be certain plays (it revolves around certain stats being achieved by a home team pick) that will be weighted with a 2X's unit pick. Again, to be clear, the formula remains unchanged. Here are today's picks and the first of the 2Xs picks:
Philadelphia Phillies -110 (2 UNITS)
New York Mets 141
Atlanta Braves 140
Pittsburgh Pirates 164
Houston Astros 122 (2 UNITS)
Milwaukee Brewers -200 (2 UNITS)
Toronto Blue Jays -116
Arizona DiamondBacks -133 (2 UNITS)
Oakland Athletics 137 (2 UNITS)
Lastly, since April 26th., date of last major tweak, there have been 222 picks made. As of right now I am 111-111. Exactly 50%........at one time I recall being above 58%. What a friggin' fall.....
Yesterday was a net loss of -175 and YTD now stands at -169. The +130dogs was also a net loss of -100 and its YTD is now a net win of +1,325.
As I stated previously, my formula will remain unchanged, but there will be certain plays (it revolves around certain stats being achieved by a home team pick) that will be weighted with a 2X's unit pick. Again, to be clear, the formula remains unchanged. Here are today's picks and the first of the 2Xs picks:
Philadelphia Phillies -110 (2 UNITS)
New York Mets 141
Atlanta Braves 140
Pittsburgh Pirates 164
Houston Astros 122 (2 UNITS)
Milwaukee Brewers -200 (2 UNITS)
Toronto Blue Jays -116
Arizona DiamondBacks -133 (2 UNITS)
Oakland Athletics 137 (2 UNITS)
Lastly, since April 26th., date of last major tweak, there have been 222 picks made. As of right now I am 111-111. Exactly 50%........at one time I recall being above 58%. What a friggin' fall.....
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 6th, 2012 at 8:01:53 AM
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The key to winning is to bet big when you think you're going to win, and not bet at all if you're not confident.
If certain picks are 2X, then maybe you should ignore the 1X.
If certain picks are 2X, then maybe you should ignore the 1X.
June 6th, 2012 at 8:24:35 AM
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FinsRule,
I can't buy into what you've stated until I am sure that I have achieved consistant results. Consistantcy is the key. That's why I choose to use a formula for the picks as opposed to interjecting anything subjective. When you introduce subjectivity, you introduce inconsistantcy. For example, just a few short weeks ago I was extremely confidant with the results we were seeing. They winning at a great rate. What if I would have increased the size of the bets at that time? In real money terms, I would probably be bankrupt now.
I prefer to be the hare in the race. I'll be there at the end. Testing and trial first............
Thank you for the commentary and thoughts however. It's always a learning situation....every day.
I can't buy into what you've stated until I am sure that I have achieved consistant results. Consistantcy is the key. That's why I choose to use a formula for the picks as opposed to interjecting anything subjective. When you introduce subjectivity, you introduce inconsistantcy. For example, just a few short weeks ago I was extremely confidant with the results we were seeing. They winning at a great rate. What if I would have increased the size of the bets at that time? In real money terms, I would probably be bankrupt now.
I prefer to be the hare in the race. I'll be there at the end. Testing and trial first............
Thank you for the commentary and thoughts however. It's always a learning situation....every day.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 6th, 2012 at 8:40:31 AM
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Quote: steeldco
I prefer to be the hare in the race.
The hare lost.....
June 6th, 2012 at 8:54:58 AM
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All I am trying to say is that professional handicappers that actually make money betting sports do not bet 50% or more of the games in a day. The reason is what others have said before - there is no formula that can beat every line.
June 6th, 2012 at 9:07:27 AM
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LOLOL........yep. Meant to say turtle.....LOLOLOL
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 6th, 2012 at 9:19:54 AM
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I really do NOT want to be a "professional handicapper". I believe that most lose or make very little.
Nor am I looking to beat EVERY line. Nobody can. I just want to be "net", a winner. Whether or I not I accomplish that can only be told, in time. Keep the suggestions coming.....Lord knows I need help.......particularly us wascally wabbits (wannabee turtle).
Nor am I looking to beat EVERY line. Nobody can. I just want to be "net", a winner. Whether or I not I accomplish that can only be told, in time. Keep the suggestions coming.....Lord knows I need help.......particularly us wascally wabbits (wannabee turtle).
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 7th, 2012 at 3:47:41 AM
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We broke back into the black yesterday. It's only 1 day, but has provided an amazing relief. The net win yesterday was +254 and YTD is now +85. The +130dogs benefited from having 1 of them as a 2Xs play. The net win was +174 and its YTD is now +1,499. The 2Xs group by itself went 3 and 2 for a net win of +254.
Today's picks are:
Philadelphia Phillies -180 (2 UNITS)
Cleveland Indians 105
Tampa Bay Rays 135
Boston Red Sox -144 (2 UNITS)
Houston Astros 148 (2 UNITS)
Toronto Blue Jays 136
Today's picks are:
Philadelphia Phillies -180 (2 UNITS)
Cleveland Indians 105
Tampa Bay Rays 135
Boston Red Sox -144 (2 UNITS)
Houston Astros 148 (2 UNITS)
Toronto Blue Jays 136
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 7th, 2012 at 2:36:38 PM
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Quote: SOOPOOAm I interpretting this correctly that you are an abysmal -1,419 on all picks that are not at least +130 underdogs? So just flip your formula upside down every time it says to pick any team that is not in that category?
SOOPOO, if I understand correctly, the +130 dogs are a subset of his overall winnings. So the net loss of -133 reported in this post includes the +130 dogs in addition to all of the other bets. If he had bet JUST the +130 dogs he would have been +1425, if he had excluded them and bet everything else, he would be negative the large number you posted.
steeldco, correct me if I'm wrong. This thread is your baby, just chiming in :)
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
