bigpete88
bigpete88
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March 18th, 2012 at 8:05:03 AM permalink
Using the rough estimates that NBA teams end up with a score between 85 and 105 80% of the time and the other 20% between 70 and 115, if the line is off by 5 points, what would be the % advantage? Also base the odds at -110 to win 100. 52.38% to break even.

I do not have a clue how to fomulate those equations....

Thanks a lot!!!
WatchMeWin
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March 18th, 2012 at 8:35:23 AM permalink
I dont think you have a clue about what your asking either... lol
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
bigpete88
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March 18th, 2012 at 8:45:26 AM permalink
I think that there is an unemployed comedian site elsewhere :-)

Someone will give a productive response, unlike yours.
WatchMeWin
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March 18th, 2012 at 8:49:20 AM permalink
Do you have a job Pete?
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
steeldco
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March 18th, 2012 at 9:12:34 AM permalink
Quote: bigpete88

Using the rough estimates that NBA teams end up with a score between 85 and 105 80% of the time and the other 20% between 70 and 115, if the line is off by 5 points, what would be the % advantage?

The two datapoints are unrelated. The 5 point line difference would need to be compared to the average spread between 2 teams, not the total scores. I think.....I'm just a dumbass.......just ask Watch :-)

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
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March 18th, 2012 at 9:13:43 AM permalink
See that. I obviously couldn't determine how to use quote and reply..........
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
bigpete88
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March 18th, 2012 at 9:25:03 AM permalink
Thanks Steeldco!!

I knew that there would be a 2 part answer but one answer is fine. To rephrase...

Can you figure what is the advantage of a 2 team NBA game, one with a 5 point advantage? Final scores between 80 and 105, 80% of the time, if that matters.
bigpete88
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March 18th, 2012 at 9:29:22 AM permalink
Average line between teams is roughly 6, just glancing at 20 games
steeldco
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March 18th, 2012 at 9:38:49 AM permalink
Yo Pete,
Maybe I'm being thick-headed here. Sorry.

If you are saying that final scores are between 80 and 105, 80% of the time, then you are not looking at the data correctly since you can have a score of 81 occuring 99 games out of 100 while the remaining 1 game is a score of 90. That would present a vastly different scenario than one in which a score of 104 has been attained 99 games out of 100 while the remaining 1 game is a score of 103. Yet in both of those scenarios the scores would have been between 80 and 105.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
bigpete88
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March 18th, 2012 at 9:57:40 AM permalink
Thanks for looking at it Steeldco. I also sent the data to a mathematician. There is a way to get rough numbers, and like you, he may have some questions to give a more definitive answer. Good Luck!!
mustangsally
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August 6th, 2012 at 2:49:17 PM permalink
Quote: bigpete88

Thanks Steeldco!!

I knew that there would be a 2 part answer but one answer is fine. To rephrase...

Can you figure what is the advantage of a 2 team NBA game, one with a 5 point advantage? Final scores between 80 and 105, 80% of the time, if that matters.

This is just too confusing.
I thought in NBA one bets on the total points of both teams.
Can one bet on just the points scored by one team?

80% does not even sound right for the interval you state.
For the last 12 years of NBA I show this
data from
http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2012_games.html

One team totals:
mean: 97.30282891
sd: 12.22352152

Final scores between 80 and 105 for one team
68.4%

Both team totals:
mean: 194.7358596
sd: 20.62984009

What are the normal lines? -110 to win 100?
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Ayecarumba
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August 7th, 2012 at 9:38:26 AM permalink
Are you betting the spread between the two teams or the over/under on the total score? I don't think the average score of each team makes an actionable difference to the spread.

If you asked it another way would it be, "The Lakers average between 85 and 110 points per game, and Miami between 80 and 110. The Lakers are currently -3. Can I use this information to make a wager that is to my advantage?"
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dwheatley
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August 7th, 2012 at 9:43:31 AM permalink
It's not even clear which bet you are asking about... The over/under? How do you know the line is off by 5 points? Are you basing that on the 2 team's individual expected scores, or the average scores of all teams?

You can send your question to as many mathematicians as you want. You'll just get the same "wuzzah?"
Wisdom is the quality that keeps you out of situations where you would otherwise need it
buzzpaff
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August 7th, 2012 at 10:53:13 AM permalink
Have you factored in that the winning team scores more points 100% of the time ?
bigpete88
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August 7th, 2012 at 8:38:01 PM permalink
MustangSally,

You can on one team on totals at 5dimes. I am not sure about Vegas.

I thought that the NBA single team final score between 80 and 105 would be at a much higher % than 68%. I was wrong!!
bigpete88
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August 7th, 2012 at 8:40:53 PM permalink
A person would make his own line and then look at the point spread. Is there another way? I was talking about sides and not totals. Thanks for asking.
bigpete88
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August 7th, 2012 at 8:47:44 PM permalink
A person would make his own line and then look at the point spread. Is there another way? I was talking about sides and not totals. Thanks for asking.
mustangsally
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August 7th, 2012 at 10:44:29 PM permalink
Quote: steeldco

If you are saying that final scores are between 80 and 105, 80% of the time,
then you are not looking at the data correctly since you can have a score of 81 occuring 99 games out of 100 while the remaining 1 game is a score of 90.
That would present a vastly different scenario than one in which a score of 104 has been attained 99 games out of 100 while the remaining 1 game is a score of 103. Yet in both of those scenarios the scores would have been between 80 and 105.



Here is the distribution for the last 12 NBA seasons
One team totals
When you add up the probabilities for 80 to 105 you should get 68.365%

One team totals:
mean: 97.3
sd: 12.2
pointsfreqprobor less
5310.00003482860.0000348286
5410.00003482860.0000696573
5500.00000000000.0000696573
5650.00017414320.0002438005
5710.00003482860.0002786291
5840.00013931460.0004179437
5950.00017414320.0005920869
6060.00020897190.0008010588
6130.00010448590.0009055447
6290.00031345780.0012190025
6360.00020897190.0014279744
64200.00069657290.0021245472
65260.00090554470.0030300919
66300.00104485930.0040749512
67350.00121900250.0052939537
68430.00149763170.0067915854
69450.00156728890.0083588743
70560.00195040400.0103092784
71860.00299526330.0133045417
721140.00397046530.0172750070
731250.00435358040.0216285874
741750.00609501250.0277235999
751710.00595569800.0336792979
762080.00724435780.0409236556
772270.00790610200.0488297576
782530.00881164670.0576414043
793140.01093619390.0685775982
803570.01243382560.0810114238
813640.01267762610.0936890499
824030.01403594320.1077249930
835470.01905126780.1267762608
845030.01751880750.1442950683
855850.02037475620.1646698245
866550.02281276120.1874825857
876650.02316104760.2106436333
887010.02441487880.2350585121
898070.02810671500.2631652271
907790.02713151300.2902967400
918300.02890777380.3192045138
928840.03078852050.3499930343
938920.03106714960.3810601839
949450.03291306770.4139732516
959240.03218166620.4461549178
969350.03256478130.4787196991
979340.03252995260.5112496517
989730.03388826970.5451379214
999860.03434104210.5794789635
1008650.03012677630.6096057398
1019040.03148509330.6410908331
1028480.02953468930.6706255224
1038250.02873363050.6993591530
1047640.02660908330.7259682363
1057540.02626079690.7522290332
1066970.02427556420.7765045974
1076840.02382279190.8003273892
1086030.02100167180.8213290610
1095760.02006129840.8413903594
1105200.01811089440.8595012538
1114950.01724017830.8767414322
1124120.01434940090.8910908331
1133950.01375731400.9048481471
1143440.01198105320.9168292003
1153130.01090136530.9277305656
1162870.00999582060.9377263862
1172690.00936890500.9470952912
1182170.00755781550.9546531067
1191790.00623432710.9608874338
1201750.00609501250.9669824464
1211340.00466703820.9716494845
1221280.00445806630.9761075508
123990.00344803570.9795555865
124880.00306492060.9826205071
125780.00271663420.9853371413
126560.00195040400.9872875453
127600.00208971860.9893772639
128420.00146280300.9908400669
129410.00142797440.9922680412
130260.00090554470.9931735860
131170.00059208690.9937656729
132280.00097520200.9947408749
133230.00080105880.9955419337
13470.00024380050.9957857342
135180.00062691560.9964126498
136100.00034828640.9967609362
137100.00034828640.9971092226
13860.00020897190.9973181945
13980.00027862910.9975968236
140140.00048760100.9980844246
14140.00013931460.9982237392
14210.00003482860.9982585678
14310.00003482860.9982933965
14440.00013931460.9984327111
14510.00003482860.9984675397
14620.00006965730.9985371970
14730.00010448590.9986416829
14800.00000000000.9986416829
14920.00006965730.9987113402
15000.00000000000.9987113402
15130.00010448590.9988158261
15220.00006965730.9988854834
15300.00000000000.9988854834
15410.00003482860.9989203121
15500.00000000000.9989203121
15600.00000000000.9989203121
15710.00003482860.9989551407
15800.00000000000.9989551407
15900.00000000000.9989551407
16000.00000000000.9989551407
16110.00003482860.9989899694
16200.00000000000.9989899694
16300.00000000000.9989899694
16400.00000000000.9989899694
16500.00000000000.9989899694
16600.00000000000.9989899694
16700.00000000000.9989899694
16810.00003482860.9990247980
16900.00000000000.9990247980
17000.00000000000.9990247980



The Top 20 scores
pointsfreqprobor less
999860.0343410420.034341042
989730.033888270.068229312
949450.0329130680.101142379
969350.0325647810.133707161
979340.0325299530.166237113
959240.0321816660.19841878
1019040.0314850930.229903873
938920.031067150.260971023
928840.030788520.291759543
1008650.0301267760.321886319
1028480.0295346890.351421009
918300.0289077740.380328782
1038250.0287336310.409062413
898070.0281067150.437169128
907790.0271315130.464300641
1047640.0266090830.490909724
1057540.0262607970.517170521
887010.0244148790.5415854
1066970.0242755640.565860964
1076840.0238227920.589683756
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