NBA Picks
April 5th, 2012 at 4:39:51 AM
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7craps,
Hope you're feeling better. Thanks for the input. I do......still believe. I'll be making a change today. Hopefully for the better. It seems that my calculations, in terms of the outliers, may actually be calling for a directional change (playing worse after playing great and vice versa). Kinda a reversion to the mean. We'll see. I've assigned a numerical value to it and will be using it as a pick in the future.
Hope you're feeling better. Thanks for the input. I do......still believe. I'll be making a change today. Hopefully for the better. It seems that my calculations, in terms of the outliers, may actually be calling for a directional change (playing worse after playing great and vice versa). Kinda a reversion to the mean. We'll see. I've assigned a numerical value to it and will be using it as a pick in the future.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
April 6th, 2012 at 6:12:32 AM
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Yestereday was 0 and 1 again. I am now 16 and 24 YTD. I have made a slight change to my calculations and will be keeping an old and new method record from now on. Today's one pick is Washington +5.5.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
April 7th, 2012 at 7:08:44 AM
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Well, this is gettin' monotonous.....0 and 1 again. YTD is now 16 and 25.
The pick today is Portland +5
The pick today is Portland +5
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
April 8th, 2012 at 8:40:11 AM
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Yet another 0 and 1 day yesterday. I now stand at 16 and 26, or a loss rate of around 62%. 3 Picks today.
Cleveland +7.5
Philadelphia +3.5
Houston -3.5
Cleveland +7.5
Philadelphia +3.5
Houston -3.5
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
April 9th, 2012 at 8:41:48 AM
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A winning day going 2 and 1.........maybe I shouldn't have changed the formula. Oh well, I am now 18 and 27 in total with the results of the new formula at 2 and 1.
One pick today. Oklahoma City -3.
One pick today. Oklahoma City -3.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
April 10th, 2012 at 3:34:57 AM
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OK City covers and I go 1 and 0 yesterday. My YTD stands at 19 and 27 and since the formula change, I am 3 and 1.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
April 10th, 2012 at 3:35:52 AM
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Forgot. 1 pick today and it is Miami -7.5
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
April 11th, 2012 at 6:05:19 AM
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0 and 1 yesterday and my YTD stands at 19 and 28. 3 and 2 since the modeling change.
2 picks tonight. They are:
Cleveland +8
Atlanta +3
2 picks tonight. They are:
Cleveland +8
Atlanta +3
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
April 11th, 2012 at 7:36:24 AM
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Quote: steeldco0 and 1 yesterday and my YTD stands at 19 and 28. 3 and 2 since the modeling change.
Why did you 'change'? Seriously, you implied that you did a full analysis before you started this thread, and were convinced you had a mathematical model that would succeed. What new data, that you did not have before you used your first model, has come to light that you are now using, that you did not use on your 'old' model? I would hope that by now you would realize that you may as well be flipping a coin, and just that you have been 'unlucky' to be that far below .500, and that if this new 'model' goes above .500, the great likelihood is that you were just flipping the coin better.
I am convinced that there may be ways to get above .500, maybe even enough to beat the vig, but that even .600 is likely unattainable.
April 12th, 2012 at 4:10:58 AM
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This is comment that I made before I actually made the change. "It seems that my calculations, in terms of the outliers, may actually be calling for a directional change (playing worse after playing great and vice versa). Kinda a reversion to the mean. We'll see. I've assigned a numerical value to it and will be using it as a pick in the future."
Now, you may not care for it, but that doesn't matter. There's no greater fool than the one who thinks he knows it all. I do not know it all. Never claimed to. I started out with a belief that I had a model that worked. I'm refining it. Trying to show that it can be done. I still believe that it can....
Now, you may not care for it, but that doesn't matter. There's no greater fool than the one who thinks he knows it all. I do not know it all. Never claimed to. I started out with a belief that I had a model that worked. I'm refining it. Trying to show that it can be done. I still believe that it can....
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
April 12th, 2012 at 4:12:13 AM
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Yesterday I was 2 and 0 and my YTD now stands at 21 and 28. 5 and 2 since the modeling change.
No picks today.
No picks today.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
April 12th, 2012 at 5:05:18 AM
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BTW, (and this should really drive you crazy), I'm looking at a formula in MLB. It's had 4 successive winning days. Does that mean that it will continue working or not require further tweaking? I think not. One of the things that bothers me about it currently is that it yields a bunch of picks daily. I want to reduce the risk. I'd like to reduce the picks to a few. We'll see.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
April 13th, 2012 at 6:50:01 AM
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Only 1 pick today and that's
Cleveland +11.5
Cleveland +11.5
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
April 13th, 2012 at 9:51:49 AM
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Quote: steeldcoBTW, (and this should really drive you crazy), I'm looking at a formula in MLB. It's had 4 successive winning days. Does that mean that it will continue working or not require further tweaking? I think not. One of the things that bothers me about it currently is that it yields a bunch of picks daily. I want to reduce the risk. I'd like to reduce the picks to a few. We'll see.
steel-- baseball is a tad more complicated, as the lines are predicated on exactly which two pitchers are starting. If your formula does not include that info, toss it out. Also, if your formula just picks 'winners', you can toss it out also, as unless it gives you a likelihood of winning it would not be able to be used for money line (not even-money) games, which are almost all of the baseball games.
April 14th, 2012 at 7:41:38 AM
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SOOPOO,
Thanks. I will take that under consideration. I find it rather fun to mess with the data, but some winning would be nice...........still believe......
Thanks. I will take that under consideration. I find it rather fun to mess with the data, but some winning would be nice...........still believe......
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
April 14th, 2012 at 7:43:49 AM
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With yesterday's loss I am now 21 and 29. 5 and 3 since the model revision.
2 picks today. They are:
Phoenix +9
New Jersey +6.5
2 picks today. They are:
Phoenix +9
New Jersey +6.5
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
April 15th, 2012 at 6:31:37 AM
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2 losses yesterday so I am now 21 and 31 YTD. 5 and 5 since the revision. Looking like I certainly need to go back to the drawing board, but I have not lost faith. 3 picks today. They are:
Boston -9
Houston +3.5
New Orleans +5
Also, I threatened to start a MLB thread. I'm doing it today. Maybe that will yield some fun...........
Boston -9
Houston +3.5
New Orleans +5
Also, I threatened to start a MLB thread. I'm doing it today. Maybe that will yield some fun...........
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
April 16th, 2012 at 5:47:32 AM
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2 and 1 yesterday. 23 and 32 YTD. 7 and 6 since the revision. 3 picks today. They are:
New Orleans -6.5
Indiana -10
San Antonio -10
New Orleans -6.5
Indiana -10
San Antonio -10
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
April 17th, 2012 at 3:22:23 AM
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Yesterday's 3 and 0 puts me at 26 and 32 YTD. 10 and 6 since the model revision. There may be 1 pick today. I do not have a published line on it as of yet and that is Boston. Boston is a pick today if the published line is Boston -5 or less. Otherwise, there is no pick.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
April 17th, 2012 at 8:52:24 AM
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I see where Boston has been posted as a 3 point dog so they are indeed today's pick. Boston +3............and I say they win by 5...........
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
April 18th, 2012 at 7:17:09 AM
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Nothin' like lookin' like an ass.......LOL.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
April 18th, 2012 at 7:19:03 AM
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Yesterday's 0 and 1 leaves me at 26 and 37 YTD and 10 and 7 since the revision.
2 picks today.
Chicago -13
New Orleans +7.5
2 picks today.
Chicago -13
New Orleans +7.5
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
April 19th, 2012 at 4:08:42 AM
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Geez....it'd be nice to finish with some sort of a streak.
Yesterday was 1 and 1 leaving me at 27 and 38 YTD and 11 and 8 since the revision.
Today's picks:
Chicago +3
Detroit -5.5
Yesterday was 1 and 1 leaving me at 27 and 38 YTD and 11 and 8 since the revision.
Today's picks:
Chicago +3
Detroit -5.5
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
April 19th, 2012 at 8:04:15 AM
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Your bookie asked me to try and talk you into increasing your bets. His mistress has a birthday next week !
April 20th, 2012 at 6:06:08 AM
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Well, it's the start of a streak.........0 and 2 yesterday.
27 and 40 YTD and 11 and 10 since the revision.
No picks today.
27 and 40 YTD and 11 and 10 since the revision.
No picks today.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
April 20th, 2012 at 6:19:14 AM
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No disrespect intended but don't you think its time to put this thread to bed.
IF YOU PLAY "PLAY TO WIN"
April 20th, 2012 at 6:38:55 AM
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I actually like this thread, I check periodically to see how the picks are progressing. I think to no one's surprise, it's not going nearly as advertised.
April 20th, 2012 at 6:42:57 AM
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No offense taken. As I learned in my experience, there are no gains without risk. My risk here was looking like an ass and I've done a grand job in doing so. That's okay. I WILL find a way........
Since the season is near an end, I intend on finishing it. I won't be continuing this during the playoffs.
Since the season is near an end, I intend on finishing it. I won't be continuing this during the playoffs.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
April 20th, 2012 at 7:00:44 AM
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I like your response, you bring a breath of fresh air to this forumn. good look in your endeavors!
IF YOU PLAY "PLAY TO WIN"
April 20th, 2012 at 4:03:01 PM
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You got your YTD out of wack. you were 26 and 31 B4 the Boston loss.Quote: steeldcoYesterday's 0 and 1 leaves me at 26 and 37 YTD and 10 and 7 since the revision.
2 picks today.
Chicago -13
New Orleans +7.5
You should be 26 and 32 on the 16th unless you had more losses that you did not post.
as of today I show you are 27 and 36 that looks like a -12.6 net
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
April 20th, 2012 at 4:44:49 PM
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Quote: only1choiceNo disrespect intended but don't you think its time to put this thread to bed.
Keep the tread alive. Playoffs begin in about one week- maybe reset the record at 0-0 for the playoffs?
"I don't have a gambling problem. I have a financial problem."
April 21st, 2012 at 8:13:19 AM
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7craps,
You're right. Thank you. Maybe part of the problem is that I can't count.......geez....damn embarrassing. I am 27 and 36 YTD.
One pick today and it is:
Washington +11
You're right. Thank you. Maybe part of the problem is that I can't count.......geez....damn embarrassing. I am 27 and 36 YTD.
One pick today and it is:
Washington +11
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
April 22nd, 2012 at 5:36:18 AM
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Okay. 1 and 0 last night. I now stand at 28 and 36 YTD and 12 and 10 since the model revision.
2 picks today. they are:
Atlanta -2.5
New Orleans +10
2 picks today. they are:
Atlanta -2.5
New Orleans +10
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
April 23rd, 2012 at 6:10:10 PM
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Yesterday was a split at 1 and 1. YTD is now 29 and 37 and 13 and 11 since the model revision.
There were no picks posted today since I had a family emergency to handle.
There were no picks posted today since I had a family emergency to handle.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
April 24th, 2012 at 3:14:34 AM
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1 pick today:
Oklahoma city -5
Oklahoma city -5
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
April 25th, 2012 at 9:52:10 AM
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Yesterday's win puts me YTD at 30 and 37. 14 and 11 since the model revision.
Today's picks are:
San Antonio +2
Milwaukee -6.5
Today's picks are:
San Antonio +2
Milwaukee -6.5
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
April 26th, 2012 at 5:31:22 AM
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Yessterday's 1 and 1 leaves me at 31 and 38 for the year. 15 and 12 since the model revision.
Today's picks are:
Utah -3
New Orleans +5.5
Minnesota +7.5
Today's picks are:
Utah -3
New Orleans +5.5
Minnesota +7.5
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
April 27th, 2012 at 5:31:16 AM
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I guess that yesterday was a fitting end. I went 0 and 3. End up at 31 and 41 for the year. 15 and 15 since I had made a revision to the model. Admittedly terrible, but as a lifelong Cubs fan would say "Wait until next year".............See ya then. Good Luck to everyone.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
