Do Cacinos Adjust Odds

Do the casinos adjust their odds based on the amount bet on each side of a wager? In other words, if more money comes in on team A do they adjust the spread and/or the money-line payout in favor of team B?

I believe that is the sole function of a bookmaker... to be hedged so that he really doesn't care who wins or loses... he just maximizes the action by offering odds that meet the demand.

This is how illegal bookies can exist... they lay off the action amongst themselves to cover geographical team loyalty, rumors, etc.

Ideally, I want equal action on both sides, but it rarely happens. When it does happen, the action is usually light. For me, heavily bet games are usually one-sided affairs. It usually takes some large bets for me to move off the market number. When I do adjust on my own, I would prefer the next bet to be on the same side as the others. This surprises many people- they think I want action on the "other side." I'd rather have the next player lay 11/10 AND bet into a "bad" number. I'll take that type of action all day long. I have the bankroll to ride it out.

If they win, I pay them (they will eventually lose it back in the coming days/weeks).

I was hoping that was the answer. So, the Wizard talks about betting the underdog or the visiting team for an edge. What about betting against the team from the western U.S.? Most visitors to Las Vegas and all locals are from the Western U.S. I know many people don't favor the team from where they live, but I would guess that is mostly a random thing. Given these facts, wouldn't there be an abnormal number of Western U.S.-favoring gamblers pushing the odds towards their teams? Betting against that should create an advantage.

Quote: downtowner

I was hoping that was the answer. So, the Wizard talks about betting the underdog or the visiting team for an edge. What about betting against the team from the western U.S.? Most visitors to Las Vegas and all locals are from the Western U.S. I know many people don't favor the team from where they live, but I would guess that is mostly a random thing. Given these facts, wouldn't there be an abnormal number of Western U.S.-favoring gamblers pushing the odds towards their teams? Betting against that should create an advantage.

By and large, Las Vegas doesn't have a "Home" team and the locals who do bet on games tend to bet with their heads, not their hearts. I observed this when Arizona was in the Super Bowl a couple of years ago. If I remember correctly, the Steelers were heavy favorites and that prevented me from betting on the game. I didn't want to give up that many points.

Quote: downtowner

I was hoping that was the answer. So, the Wizard talks about betting the underdog or the visiting team for an edge. What about betting against the team from the western U.S.? Most visitors to Las Vegas and all locals are from the Western U.S. I know many people don't favor the team from where they live, but I would guess that is mostly a random thing. Given these facts, wouldn't there be an abnormal number of Western U.S.-favoring gamblers pushing the odds towards their teams? Betting against that should create an advantage.

Not sure how true that still is. Vegas has always had a reputation as a town of transients. When I was in Phoenix it was the same way. Cardinals and their stadium were both so terrible nobody cared. To be partly fair locals gravitated to locals and transplants to transplants so my view may be clouded, but not by much. Then there is the fact that Vegas (illegally) draws plenty of balancing-action. Bookie in Pittsburgh can't balance his action he can call a runner at his home in Henderson, send him to the strip to take the other side. Illegal? Very. Happens? We all know it does.

For changing odds, get a copy of "Confessions of an Ivy League Bookie" a good read which is on a slow path to being a movie. The subject goes to work and learns about balanced action. But he says part of balanced action is having action on a lot of games. Superbowl this is impossible, only one game to take bets on. But a regullar week there are 12-16 NFL games. You might have very unbalanced action on 4 of them. But chances are you will not take a bath on all 4, as a bookie you will win 1-2 and lose 1-2. So you really are in balance. The author says the supervisor in the wire room told him bookies accepted this and liked it since they felt the wagering public picked wrong long-term, so it was a moneymaker for them.

They did consider moving the line when a known sharp took heavy action, however. Moved the line right after they called their own outside bookies.

Often a college student will make book .... and lay off only something really substantial on a particular game.

I don't think bookies ever are truly "neutral" in all respects and only relying on the vigorish.

Dink of Dink, Inc supposedly started out as an inattentive bookie and didn't know some quarterback had been injured the night before a game. He made book at his previous nights line without checking the morning news and got cleaned out... had to go to a loan shark to make good but people noticed that he didn't disappear and so they continued to do business with him. (This is from Lay The Favorite by Beth Rayner... a memoir of life with her gambler-father and growing up to work for a Gambler and bookie in Vegas.

Interesting. Of course Las Vegas would end up being the (illegal) bank of last resort. And of course diversification can help a lot.

Still I wonder how much of the action is locals and how much is visitors. I still would think that a game with an underdog against a Southern California team would have at least some skewed odds. Beting the underdog, non-Cal team should pay over time.

Firstly remember bookies can always lay off their bets to other bookies to even things up. At UK horse racing they can now even try and lay it off to BetFair or similar. Of course the bookies of "last resort" are the large ones such as Ladbrokes - and remember it's actually good business to take a news-worthy loss every now and then (like Detori's 7 - and remember they went down to 2/1 for a 12/1 shot in the last).

Many years ago I was watching Monday night football and at half time was seeing the betting. The odds were usual (say -150 +130) but every now and then a bell would go and the odds shift by 10 or even 20.

It is now quite common on some UK horse races, if you're good at timing, to be able to find over book.

Sure they do, and even publish them every 3 or 6 hours, the "Glantz-Culver Line" in local newspapers is a good example. As for heavy action, in a one-time event like the Superbowl, action takes wild swings, especially late, and when injury reports are published. This may cause hourly adjudtments, or even "on-demand" adjustments. Good sports bettors know the timing of certain news-releases, and get to the sportsbook early, looking for early action and moves. As for this Superbowl, keep an eye on Gronk. Play/no play could cause quite a swing.

Quote: MakingBook

Ideally, I want equal action on both sides, but it rarely happens. When it does happen, the action is usually light. For me, heavily bet games are usually one-sided affairs. It usually takes some large bets for me to move off the market number. When I do adjust on my own, I would prefer the next bet to be on the same side as the others. This surprises many people- they think I want action on the "other side." I'd rather have the next player lay 11/10 AND bet into a "bad" number. I'll take that type of action all day long. I have the bankroll to ride it out.

If they win, I pay them (they will eventually lose it back in the coming days/weeks).

Does you ever layoff bets with a nickle line to cut possible losses? Or do you always fly solo?

I always fly solo.....at least so far.

Quote: charliepatrick

...some UK horse races...timing...find over book.

Here's a race from this week (Newcastle [UK], 1st February, 4:20pm) based on the show available in bookies
SP = 117.5% Best = 98.5%
Basically because Bardeli was backed down from 15/8 to 6/4 and Wolf Shield from 12/1 to 11/2 before retreating to 13/2.

6/4F Bardeli (op 11/8 touched 15/8)
9/2 Justjoe (op 6/1)
6/1 Vintage Times (op 9/2 touched 4/1)
13/2 Wolf Shield (op 12/1 touched 11/2)
9/1 King Of The Wolds (touched 11/1)
14/1 Brockwell Abbey (op 12/1 touched 16/1)
16/1 Yinfortheroad (op 18/1 touched 20/1)
20/1 Robin's Command (op 16/1)
40/1 Logical Approach (op 33/1)
100/1 Gymdoli (touched 150/1)
100/1 Native Optimist (op 150/1)