2011-12 College Bowls Over Unders
December 15th, 2011 at 4:06:42 PM
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Any thoughts on straight betting of unders with the inflated numbers to gain a small edge? Or do you pick and choice the games?
December 15th, 2011 at 4:14:25 PM
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I've never looked into it. However, my educated guess is that the advantage by being a contrarian, betting the opposite way as the squares, would be roughly offset by the 4.76% juice. If you combine shopping around for a good number you would probably have a small advantage. If forced, about a 2% advantage, at best.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
December 15th, 2011 at 4:23:50 PM
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Thanks for the quick reply. Your advice is always appreciated and, as always factualy correct!
December 18th, 2011 at 2:04:16 PM
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2 Overs, 1 under last night. Both went over in the last 10 seconds of the game, but keeping the faith.
December 21st, 2011 at 4:26:57 PM
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The Marshall game was under last night. Going to up the play with TCU under 56 tonight. Anyone else?
December 21st, 2011 at 10:04:45 PM
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Quote: BozGoing to up the play with TCU under 56 tonight. Anyone else?
Sounds like that was a good move... the Poinsettia Bowl was a total score of 55, so I guess you win at under 56.
Elsewhere a LOW STAKES poker player bought a 50 grand ticket for Over 57 as well as a 30 grand ticket for Over 56.
Does that mean the LOW STAKES player dropped 80 grand on this one game of little interest?
December 21st, 2011 at 11:54:24 PM
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He did and maybe even 88K if they were win 80.
December 22nd, 2011 at 3:18:48 AM
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Response lifted from elsewhere:Quote: FleaStiffElsewhere a LOW STAKES poker player bought a 50 grand ticket for Over 57 as well as a 30 grand ticket for Over 56.
Does that mean the LOW STAKES player dropped 80 grand on this one game of little interest?
"I think his only hope was possibly OT at the end.
Had he shopped around he could have got 55 and at least pushed part of the bet.
Still sick to bet that much on some stupid low level bowl game where one team (TCU) was probably disinterested in the game. "
The team may have been disinterested, the bookies weren't.
December 22nd, 2011 at 4:32:46 PM
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Going with under 68 tonight in the LV Bowl. Line has moved up 1.5 points today, so there is heavy action again on the over. Boise may score a lot of points, but I still see the value in the under so I am riding this train to the end.
December 22nd, 2011 at 4:51:55 PM
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Quote: BozGoing with under 68 tonight in the LV Bowl. Line has moved up 1.5 points today, so there is heavy action again on the over. Boise may score a lot of points, but I still see the value in the under so I am riding this train to the end.
Good luck Boz! Unfortunately, I don't share your enthusiasm for the under tonight.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
December 24th, 2011 at 3:53:39 PM
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Here we go again. O/U was 60.5 for weeks, now is up to 64 at most books. Once again, going with the under as the value play. Through 6 games it is 3-3 with 29 bowls to go. So my Christmas Eve wish is for a low scoring game with the Wolfpack holding their own, though I am only on the under.
Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to all!
Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to all!
December 28th, 2011 at 10:49:42 AM
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Well after yesterdays pair of overs it is 6 overs and 4 unders this bowl season. Even with the large jumps in lines, the games keep going over.
