Average field goals per game
November 7th, 2011 at 11:18:16 AM
permalink
From the 2000 to 2010 seasons the average field goals per game was 2.98. This season so far the average is 3.38. Who cares, you might ask? This is important for a lot of props I do, which tend to abhor field goals.
Assuming 2.98 is the expected mean, the 3.38 average this season is 2.6 standard deviations too high. The chances of that, assuming a true mean of 2.98, is 1 in 216.
I've been doing badly on prop bets this season, mainly due to this glut of field goals. My question is, have there been any changes in the rules of football, or just the way the game has been played this season, that is causing more field goals, or is just a fluke? I know about the rule kicking off 5 yards further down the field, but I don't see how that would have much of an effect. Maybe fewer special teams touchdowns, thus replacing some of them with field goals, but there were never that many special teams touchdowns begin with.
Assuming 2.98 is the expected mean, the 3.38 average this season is 2.6 standard deviations too high. The chances of that, assuming a true mean of 2.98, is 1 in 216.
I've been doing badly on prop bets this season, mainly due to this glut of field goals. My question is, have there been any changes in the rules of football, or just the way the game has been played this season, that is causing more field goals, or is just a fluke? I know about the rule kicking off 5 yards further down the field, but I don't see how that would have much of an effect. Maybe fewer special teams touchdowns, thus replacing some of them with field goals, but there were never that many special teams touchdowns begin with.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
November 7th, 2011 at 11:38:22 AM
permalink
Quote: WizardMy question is, have there been any changes in the rules of football, or just the way the game has been played this season, that is causing more field goals, or is just a fluke? I know about the rule kicking off 5 yards further down the field, but I don't see how that would have much of an effect. Maybe fewer special teams touchdowns, thus replacing some of them with field goals, but there were never that many special teams touchdowns begin with.
Has the trend been up, down or choppy? Are attempts way up, or are kickers making more FG's?
The lack of training and pre-season games to get the ground game in shape, may have put coaches in more 4th and long situations than before. Pure speculation on my part.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
November 7th, 2011 at 11:42:24 AM
permalink
Also, the first half of the season has the better weather. Not only do kickers kick better, but also coaches are more willing to kick longer field goals. What is the average number of FGs through the first nine weeks of the average NFL season?
November 7th, 2011 at 11:54:13 AM
permalink
Quote: 7outlineawayAlso, the first half of the season has the better weather. Not only do kickers kick better, but also coaches are more willing to kick longer field goals. What is the average number of FGs through the first nine weeks of the average NFL season?
I'm afraid I didn't study it by week. I just looked at the team scoring summaries season to date at ESPN.com. However, I do seem to recall having this concern in a past year, but by the end of the year things averaged out. Then again, I am of the opinion that weather is generally overrated when it comes to football. Baseball too. Wind is important, but I have not noticed a correlation between total points scored and temperature. However, I have never studied the correlation between temperature and field goals.
On a related note, is there a ball warmer, so if there is an attempt on a cold day the kicker can grab a nice warm ball out of it?
Of practical concern, I'm showing the bet on first score to be a touchdown on Monday Night Football to be a good bet. However, given the deluge of field goals this season, I'm scared to bet it.
Follow up -- I just studied it. Here is the average number of field goals by week from 2000 to 2010.
| Week | FG/game |
|---|---|
| 1 | 2.91 |
| 2 | 3.20 |
| 3 | 3.01 |
| 4 | 2.99 |
| 5 | 3.14 |
| 6 | 3.00 |
| 7 | 2.80 |
| 8 | 3.02 |
| 9 | 3.06 |
| 10 | 3.08 |
| 11 | 2.96 |
| 12 | 3.01 |
| 13 | 3.03 |
| 14 | 2.91 |
| 15 | 3.00 |
| 16 | 2.70 |
| 17 | 2.95 |
If you graph it, you'll see a slight downward trend through the year. A least squared regression line goes from about 3.05 in week 1 to 2.90 in week 17. So, I think this might explain it a little bit, but the temperature effect alone doesn't explain an extra 0.4 field goals per game.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
November 7th, 2011 at 12:43:12 PM
permalink
I bet the new kick off rules ARE a factor.... way more touchbacks than in the past, so more teams are starting drives at their 20 vs. further up the field, so more drives stall out in field goal range
November 7th, 2011 at 12:53:29 PM
permalink
I thought this year scoring has, in general, been higher?
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
November 7th, 2011 at 1:15:51 PM
permalink
I don't know what to tell you. I can't make heads or tails of this season, it just seems like a different game. Who would've bet we'd already see a 60+ point game, the 49ers and Lions leading divisions, the Colts 0-for... it's shook up for sure.
I don't know about a warmer per se, but there are "kicking balls" that get subbed in for kickoffs and field goal tries. I would think they would improve kicking, whether it be just because they're new and clean, made warmer by the ball boy constanly holding it, or actually put in a warmer. But this has been practice for years, and wouldn't really explain this years increase in field goals.
If I had to wager a guess as to the cause, I would put it on the preseason issues. The practice season was shortened quite a bit, so the TD machine isn't really sharpened up like it has been in previous years.
Quote: WizardOn a related note, is there a ball warmer, so if there is an attempt on a cold day the kicker can grab a nice warm ball out of it?
I don't know about a warmer per se, but there are "kicking balls" that get subbed in for kickoffs and field goal tries. I would think they would improve kicking, whether it be just because they're new and clean, made warmer by the ball boy constanly holding it, or actually put in a warmer. But this has been practice for years, and wouldn't really explain this years increase in field goals.
If I had to wager a guess as to the cause, I would put it on the preseason issues. The practice season was shortened quite a bit, so the TD machine isn't really sharpened up like it has been in previous years.
The opinions of this moderator are for entertainment purposes only.
November 7th, 2011 at 1:21:57 PM
permalink
I would have guessed that's it's purely that the average drive is a little bit longer this year... so there's more TDs and more FGs in general. I'd also believe that the punching it in in short yardage is being less effective this year (I've seen several 1st and short goals being defended this year to go for a FG or a turnover on downs).
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
November 7th, 2011 at 2:09:35 PM
permalink
Quote: thecesspitI thought this year scoring has, in general, been higher?
Yes. I don't have an exact number average score, but can tell you this:
Total TDs=631
Total FGs=436
Games played=129
If we count all touchdowns as 7, and of course a field goal is 3, that would be 44.38 points per game. Before this season the average was about 41.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
November 7th, 2011 at 3:38:48 PM
permalink
That would suggest more scoring in general, which fits with my hypothesis.
Looks like there's half a FG and 1/3 of TD more per game... do you have similar info on Turnover's as well?
Related Trivia Quiz : When was the last time an offence scored 2 points on a normal play? (Not a point after attempt/2-point conversion) in the NFL?
Looks like there's half a FG and 1/3 of TD more per game... do you have similar info on Turnover's as well?
Related Trivia Quiz : When was the last time an offence scored 2 points on a normal play? (Not a point after attempt/2-point conversion) in the NFL?
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
November 7th, 2011 at 3:55:34 PM
permalink
Quote: thecesspitLooks like there's half a FG and 1/3 of TD more per game... do you have similar info on Turnover's as well?
No.
Quote:Related Trivia Quiz : When was the last time an offence scored 2 points on a normal play? (Not a point after attempt/2-point conversion) in the NFL?
Do you mean like sacking the QB in the end zone for a safety?
Is it just me, or did anyone else notice the Rams scored two safeties in the same quarter yesterday. I made up an Ask the Wizard question about it, as follows:
Quote: Anon E. MouseIn the Rams vs Cardinals game of November 6, 2011 the Rams scored two safeties in the third quarter. What are the odds of that?
The probability of at least one safety per game is 5.77%, based on historical experience.
The expected number of safeties per game would be -ln(1-0.0577) = 0.0594.
The expected number per quarter per team would be 0.0594/8 = 0.0074.
The probability of exactly two safeties by the same team in a single quarter would be e-0.0074×0.00742/fact(2) = 1 in 36,505.
In an NFL season there are 267 games, and 267×8=2,136 team quarters. So, according to my estimate, this will occur on average once every 36,505/2,136 = 17.1 years.
This should be considered as just a rough guess. I'm ignoring overtime, kickoff rules, assuming all teams are equally likely to score a safety, and an exponential distribution for the time between safeties.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
November 7th, 2011 at 4:22:28 PM
permalink
Quote: thecesspitRelated Trivia Quiz : When was the last time an offence scored 2 points on a normal play? (Not a point after attempt/2-point conversion) in the NFL?
When Jim Marshall ran an interception the wrong way? Technically his safety qualifies as being scored by the offense, since the 49ers offense was on the field at the time. I forget when that was. The 60s is the closest I can get to a date.
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
November 7th, 2011 at 4:28:15 PM
permalink
Not that one. But that would have counted for sure. It's more recent than that.
And not a QB sack... that would be scored by the defence.
I didn't notice the Rams scoring safeties... I didn't catch that game or see the highlights. That's awesome...
And not a QB sack... that would be scored by the defence.
I didn't notice the Rams scoring safeties... I didn't catch that game or see the highlights. That's awesome...
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
November 7th, 2011 at 4:29:34 PM
permalink
Quote: JohnzimboI bet the new kick off rules ARE a factor.... way more touchbacks than in the past, so more teams are starting drives at their 20 vs. further up the field, so more drives stall out in field goal range
In my opinion Johnzimbo hit the nail on the head. Most football experts thought scoring as a whole would be down compared to previous years based on the new kickoff rules, but that has not been the case. However, the new kickoff rules, which has caused many more touch backs, has not had a direct impact on the overall scores per game because of the favorable rules for offenses. Generally, offenses that pass more, which is just about everyone now, have more difficulty in the red zone because of the condensed field and lack of space to operate the passing offense. Therefore, as Johnzimbo says, the drives stall out in the field goal range.
November 7th, 2011 at 4:30:11 PM
permalink
Quote: thecesspitNot that one. But that would have counted for sure. It's more recent than that.
I concede, then.
And now that i think of it, Marshall returned a fumble...
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
November 7th, 2011 at 4:38:08 PM
permalink
Do intentional safeties count? These happen when an offensive player (usually the QB or punter) intentionally kneels in the endzone or runs out of it to avoid a fumble or blocked punt that the defense may recover for a touchdown.
Last one of these I remember was the intentional safety the Broncos took in the Ernest Byner fumble game. That was back in the 1990s, though, so there may have been a more recent occurrence.
Last one of these I remember was the intentional safety the Broncos took in the Ernest Byner fumble game. That was back in the 1990s, though, so there may have been a more recent occurrence.
November 7th, 2011 at 4:41:09 PM
permalink
Nope. I'm thinking of a situation where the offence put points on the their side of the board by scoring a safety.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
November 7th, 2011 at 5:03:38 PM
permalink
Does it involve a defensive player intercepting the ball near his team's goal line, running into the endzone thinking that causes a touchback, but being tackled by an offensive player who then scores a safety? The rules on this have changed over the years, but I recall a playoff game in the early 80s where this happened.
November 7th, 2011 at 5:06:10 PM
permalink
Quote: NareedWhen Jim Marshall ran an interception the wrong way? Technically his safety qualifies as being scored by the offense, since the 49ers offense was on the field at the time. I forget when that was. The 60s is the closest I can get to a date.
I could picture a bunch of disputed props if that happened in a Super Bowl, assuming it were treated as a score by the offense. For example, would that count as a score for a prop on total number of scores by the 49ers?
About intentional safeties, I can remember one in recent years, roughly about 3 to 5 years ago, in a playoff game I think. I had a no safety bet that game too.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
November 7th, 2011 at 5:21:02 PM
permalink
Quote: 7outlineawayDoes it involve a defensive player intercepting the ball near his team's goal line, running into the endzone thinking that causes a touchback, but being tackled by an offensive player who then scores a safety? The rules on this have changed over the years, but I recall a playoff game in the early 80s where this happened.
Close... wrong decade, and the teams in question were not even close to the playoffs that year.
I should also say it might not be the last time it happened, but I doubt it, but it caused a very minor dispute, as I claimed I should have got 2 points in one of my fantasy league the player who made the tackle scoring a safety. Safety's don't generally get awarded to a player though so I was S.O.L. And no, those 2 points made no difference to my position that year.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
November 7th, 2011 at 6:09:39 PM
permalink
Quote: WizardFrom the 2000 to 2010 seasons the average field goals per game was 2.98. This season so far the average is 3.38. Who cares, you might ask? This is important for a lot of props I do, which tend to abhor field goals.
Assuming 2.98 is the expected mean, the 3.38 average this season is 2.6 standard deviations too high. The chances of that, assuming a true mean of 2.98, is 1 in 216.
I've been doing badly on prop bets this season, mainly due to this glut of field goals.
Did you have the same problem last year?
Looking at some stats...
Field Goals NFL
2010 thru 9 weeks
404 made
499 attempted
80.96%
avg week
2.69 1
2.75 2
3.13 3
2.79 4
4.36 5
2.64 6
4.07 7
2.85 8
2.78 9
3.11 avg for first 9 weeks
----------------------------------------
2011 thru 9 weeks (edit)
440 made
511 attempted
86.11%
avg week
2.69 1
3.44 2
4.00 3
3.63 4
3.23 5
3.62 6
3.15 7
3.00 8
3.50 9
3.37 avg for first 9 weeks
Without breaking it all down to the length of field goals, seems to me the kickers are just making more of them.
November 8th, 2011 at 10:40:52 AM
permalink
I'll give the answer I know off. If it's happened since, I'll stand corrected
Week 8 of the 2009 regular season, Detroit Lions at the St Louis Rams. Matthew Stafford threw a pass that was intercepted by James Butler. He exited the end zone, but stepped back in and was tackled by running back Kevin Smith, giving up the safety. If he hadn't left the end zone it would have been a touch back. What he was thinking off, I am not sure.
Thus the Lions took an offensive snapped and scored 2 points.
Week 8 of the 2009 regular season, Detroit Lions at the St Louis Rams. Matthew Stafford threw a pass that was intercepted by James Butler. He exited the end zone, but stepped back in and was tackled by running back Kevin Smith, giving up the safety. If he hadn't left the end zone it would have been a touch back. What he was thinking off, I am not sure.
Thus the Lions took an offensive snapped and scored 2 points.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
November 8th, 2011 at 11:26:27 AM
permalink
Very interesting event.Quote: thecesspitThus the Lions took an offensive snapped and scored 2 points.
I am curious about the official terminology -- on plays that involve a change of possession, do the designations "offense" and "defense" remain the same throughout, or do they change at the change of possession? Does it matter whether it is an intentional change (kickoff, punt) vs. unintentional? I know that in common parlance a pick-6 is a defensive touchdown, but is that the way the rules describe the teams after the turnover? I think there are some rules applied differently to the offense and defense, such as holding (?), so does the application of those rules switch with a change of possession or not?
November 8th, 2011 at 7:50:40 PM
permalink
Quote: DocVery interesting event.
I am curious about the official terminology -- on plays that involve a change of possession, do the designations "offense" and "defense" remain the same throughout, or do they change at the change of possession? Does it matter whether it is an intentional change (kickoff, punt) vs. unintentional? I know that in common parlance a pick-6 is a defensive touchdown, but is that the way the rules describe the teams after the turnover? I think there are some rules applied differently to the offense and defense, such as holding (?), so does the application of those rules switch with a change of possession or not?
At least as far as the common man is concerned, the designations remain the same. Regardless if a turnover is nullified due to a penalty, or a simple yardage penalty is issued with the turnover upheld, players are always refered to as the "team" the play began with.
For example, if a defensive player holds a player on pick return after it was picked, it is stated "Holding, #99, defense", even though the ball has changed possession. If a defensive player holds a receiver before the pick was made, thereby nullifying the turnover, it is still "Holding, #99, defense". The same holds true for "kicking" turnovers. Whether it was a hold during the return that incurs penalty yards, or a roughing the kicker that negates the turnover of the kick, it's always stated "(infraction), #99, return team"
Since I don't have the rule book I couldn't bet my life on this, but I'd say I'm pretty sure "team" doesn't matter in this case. Just to add some more info so you can draw your own conclusions, all the rules I could think of apply the same for both teams except those that wouldn't matter in this case. (The offense could never incur an Encroachment, Neutral Zone, or Roughing the Passer penalty, nor could defense get dinged for Illegal Formation, Illegal Man in Motion, or Intentional Grounding. These would be "team specific penalties") All others (at least those I could recall - Clipping, Holding, Interference, Unnecessary Roughness, Illegal Block, Illegal Forward Pass, Facemask, Tripping, etc...) are called equally for both "teams".
Since thecesspit offered a "things you never see" trivia, I'll add my own for your pleasure. When was the last "free kick field goal" attempted? (bonus points given if you even know what a "free kick field goal" is ;))
The opinions of this moderator are for entertainment purposes only.
November 8th, 2011 at 7:56:40 PM
permalink
Wasn't it Doug Flutie a few years back? Last game of the season or last game of his career or something... and I think it won them the game too... unless I just dreamed the whole thing.Quote: Face
Since thecesspit offered a "things you never see" trivia, I'll add my own for your pleasure. When was the last "free kick field goal" attempted? (bonus points given if you even know what a "free kick field goal" is ;))
Happiness is underrated
November 8th, 2011 at 7:58:38 PM
permalink
Quote: FaceSince thecesspit offered a "things you never see" trivia, I'll add my own for your pleasure. When was the last "free kick field goal" attempted? (bonus points given if you even know what a "free kick field goal" is ;))
You can kick a field goal in any down, of course. If, say, the QB or punter takes the ball, not in an FG formation, he can, I think, bounce the ball on the turf and kick it. if it goes through the uprights, it's field goal. Am I close to right?
No idea who was the last to do it. I've a feeling Tom Brady tried it recently, but I think that was just a surprise punt.
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
November 8th, 2011 at 8:13:26 PM
permalink
Quote: TheNightflyWasn't it Doug Flutie a few years back? Last game of the season or last game of his career or something... and I think it won them the game too... unless I just dreamed the whole thing.
You were not dreaming. Flutie did indeed kick a "Canadian Field Goal" and made it, but that is not a "free kick". I think the technical term for that is "dropkick", but I could be wrong. +1 for at least offering something strange =)
Quote: NareedYou can kick a field goal in any down, of course. If, say, the QB or punter takes the ball, not in an FG formation, he can, I think, bounce the ball on the turf and kick it. if it goes through the uprights, it's field goal. Am I close to right?
No idea who was the last to do it. I've a feeling Tom Brady tried it recently, but I think that was just a surprise punt.
You are exactly right in that anyone can "punt" a ball for 3 points as long as the ball strikes the ground first, but like TheNightFly, you are incorrect in answering the trivia. Don't feel bad; up until a few days ago, I had no idea this rule even existed ;)
I'll save the explanation of "free kick field goal" for now in case anyone else wants to take a whack at it.
The opinions of this moderator are for entertainment purposes only.
November 8th, 2011 at 11:24:21 PM
permalink
The free kick is an option given to a recieving team who take a fair catch. The kick is an option even if time has expired. I have no idea who last even attempted one. Flutie, a CFL hall of famer, was the last man to kick a drop goal in the NFL. Its more common in the cfl due to the rules on when the bal is live. And because on side players can recover a kick. The 2nd down trick punt is used every season it seems.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
November 9th, 2011 at 12:55:11 AM
permalink
Cor blimey! 0.o The Canadian by way of UK gets it! =D C'mon guys, it's FUTBOL AMERICANO! Bad enough we suck at geography.... ;)
Just to elaborate, once a team takes a fair catch they have the option of kicking a field goal from the spot of the catch. A holder is implemented same as a regular field goal, but there is no snap. The kicker lines up 10yards back same as he would a kickoff, runs up and gives it das boot. The defense cannot rush him on this play. Imagine a windy weather kickoff with no tee... that's basically what it looks like.
The last one was relatively recently, say within 5-7 years. ARZ vs NYG. With 5 seconds left in the half, ARZ attempted a 68 yarder by this method. After a whole bunch of lining it up, making sure the holder held it just right, licking a finger and testing the wind, the kicker booted a line drive that shanked left, bouncing at about the 30yd line ><
Just to elaborate, once a team takes a fair catch they have the option of kicking a field goal from the spot of the catch. A holder is implemented same as a regular field goal, but there is no snap. The kicker lines up 10yards back same as he would a kickoff, runs up and gives it das boot. The defense cannot rush him on this play. Imagine a windy weather kickoff with no tee... that's basically what it looks like.
The last one was relatively recently, say within 5-7 years. ARZ vs NYG. With 5 seconds left in the half, ARZ attempted a 68 yarder by this method. After a whole bunch of lining it up, making sure the holder held it just right, licking a finger and testing the wind, the kicker booted a line drive that shanked left, bouncing at about the 30yd line ><
The opinions of this moderator are for entertainment purposes only.
November 9th, 2011 at 6:40:16 AM
permalink
Quote: FaceCor blimey! 0.o The Canadian by way of UK gets it! =D C'mon guys, it's FUTBOL AMERICANO!
It's not that bad. That's an esoteric rule rarely invoked. What are the chances of getting a fair catch about 40-50 yards from the uprights?
What surprised me was a few seasons back a game ended in a tie, and some of the players were surprised to learn such things existed in the NFL. It seems they thought they'd keep playing after 15 minutes of OT ran out. Now, granted ties are rare in Football, they're not unheard of.
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
November 9th, 2011 at 10:08:45 AM
permalink
The free kick would only be taken in the final seconds of a half. It might happen if a team took a penalty applied to a kick off, so they kick from the 20 (or punted from deep, but why a team would be punting with seconds left, I'm not sure, when taking a knee should un off the clock), and then on the ensuing kick off, there was a unsportsmanlike conduct, adding 15 yards to the fair catch marker.
This is pretty much the situation I first heard about it, though the catch was made at teams own ~ 30, with the 15 yards penalty assessed for a intentional face mask (I think), making a kick from the 45... a 65 yarder. Wasn't attempted. Which seemed odd to me... why wouldn't you? The ball isn't dead after the kick, so i guess if it fails you have to play coverage, but if it's last gasp anyways, any team not recovering and taking a knee is not thinking (see the Iggle Tied game, as Nareed mentioned).
I can think of other times it might occur, but they are much like a retiring QB kicking a drop goal with his last play of his professional career (which I still think was an awesome thing for the Pats to let him do).
This is pretty much the situation I first heard about it, though the catch was made at teams own ~ 30, with the 15 yards penalty assessed for a intentional face mask (I think), making a kick from the 45... a 65 yarder. Wasn't attempted. Which seemed odd to me... why wouldn't you? The ball isn't dead after the kick, so i guess if it fails you have to play coverage, but if it's last gasp anyways, any team not recovering and taking a knee is not thinking (see the Iggle Tied game, as Nareed mentioned).
I can think of other times it might occur, but they are much like a retiring QB kicking a drop goal with his last play of his professional career (which I still think was an awesome thing for the Pats to let him do).
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
November 9th, 2011 at 11:31:54 AM
permalink
Back to the increase in FG's: Not mentioned yet was the shortened offseason due to the labor dispute. Less off season workouts, shorter training camps, etc. But now the defenses are catching up and the yards/scores being posted are going down.
January 3rd, 2012 at 8:42:47 AM
permalink
Here is an update to this topic. Naturally, as soon as I quit betting first score to be a touchdown and under 3.5 field goals the number of field goals came down per game came down. Here are the totals for the regular season.
So, the average field goals per game was 3.27. Compare that to 2.98 for the previous 11 seasons. You may recall it was 3.34 in my mid-season post at the beginning of this thread.
If we assume that 2.98 is the fair average, the probability of having an average of 3.24 or higher for an entire regular season is 0.37%. Is it just chance or did something change about the game? The answer to that I just don't know. It may be a combination.
Also note the percentage of field goals made to attempts was 82.9%. That figure will come in handy on the missed field goal prop on the Super Bowl.
| Team | Made | Attempted |
|---|---|---|
| Ariz | 19 | 24 |
| Atl | 27 | 29 |
| Bal | 30 | 39 |
| Buf | 23 | 31 |
| Car | 22 | 28 |
| Chic | 28 | 32 |
| Cin | 33 | 38 |
| Clev | 24 | 29 |
| Dal | 32 | 37 |
| Den | 19 | 25 |
| Det | 24 | 29 |
| GB | 24 | 28 |
| Hou | 32 | 38 |
| Ind | 23 | 27 |
| Jac | 23 | 25 |
| KC | 24 | 30 |
| Mia | 33 | 39 |
| Min | 22 | 28 |
| NE | 28 | 33 |
| NO | 28 | 34 |
| NYG | 19 | 24 |
| NYJ | 19 | 25 |
| Oak | 31 | 35 |
| Phil | 24 | 27 |
| Pitt | 23 | 31 |
| SD | 28 | 35 |
| SF | 44 | 52 |
| Sea | 25 | 30 |
| StL | 21 | 28 |
| TB | 26 | 28 |
| Ten | 29 | 32 |
| Wash | 31 | 41 |
| Total | 838 | 1011 |
| Average | 26.19 | 31.59 |
| Average per game | 1.64 | 1.97 |
So, the average field goals per game was 3.27. Compare that to 2.98 for the previous 11 seasons. You may recall it was 3.34 in my mid-season post at the beginning of this thread.
If we assume that 2.98 is the fair average, the probability of having an average of 3.24 or higher for an entire regular season is 0.37%. Is it just chance or did something change about the game? The answer to that I just don't know. It may be a combination.
Also note the percentage of field goals made to attempts was 82.9%. That figure will come in handy on the missed field goal prop on the Super Bowl.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
January 3rd, 2012 at 8:51:00 AM
permalink
Quote: WizardIf we assume that 2.98 is the fair average, the probability of having an average of 3.24 or higher for an entire regular season is 0.93%. Is it just chance or did something change about the game? The answer to that I just don't know. It may be a combination.
Well, kickoffs were moved up 5 yards, leading to more touchbacks and therefore more drives starting on the 20yd line vs. further upfield. At first blush that would seem to increase the number of drives ending in field goals vs. punts.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice."
-- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
January 3rd, 2012 at 9:29:05 AM
permalink
A couple of comments.
First, i think that over time, field goal kickers are getting better. 5 of the 9 field goals made over 60 yards occured in the last 6 years. This year is especially notable. I have two stories:
(ESPN: David Akers reigns as kicking king)
(LA Times: In the NFL, 50 (yards) is new 40).
Secondly, an anemic offense and strong defences will lead to more field goal attempts. With the absence of Favre and Manning, you might be able to argue that offenses are less potent.
First, i think that over time, field goal kickers are getting better. 5 of the 9 field goals made over 60 yards occured in the last 6 years. This year is especially notable. I have two stories:
(ESPN: David Akers reigns as kicking king)
(LA Times: In the NFL, 50 (yards) is new 40).
Secondly, an anemic offense and strong defences will lead to more field goal attempts. With the absence of Favre and Manning, you might be able to argue that offenses are less potent.
-----
You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
January 3rd, 2012 at 10:10:46 AM
permalink
Except there was three QBs who passed for over 5000 yards this season.... I think offences where in general MORE potent this year (was their more points in total scored this year?), which would lead to in general more scoring, both FG and TDs.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
January 3rd, 2012 at 10:46:56 AM
permalink
Quote: MathExtremistWell, kickoffs were moved up 5 yards, leading to more touchbacks and therefore more drives starting on the 20yd line vs. further upfield. At first blush that would seem to increase the number of drives ending in field goals vs. punts.
It would seem the opposite to me. Drives are starting further back. Given the same yards advanced either way, what before might have been a field goal attempt would turn into a punt.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
January 3rd, 2012 at 10:55:28 AM
permalink
Quote: WizardIt would seem the opposite to me. Drives are starting further back. Given the same yards advanced either way, what before might have been a field goal attempt would turn into a punt.
By the same token, many touchdowns would turn into field goal attempts. Clearly it's not sound to reason precisely that way because offense changes based on field location, but I'm not sure which effect is more prevalent.
Can you correlate starting drive position with drive result? And then map that to the distribution of this year's starting drive position (which should be much heavier on the 20 yard line)?
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice."
-- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
January 3rd, 2012 at 12:29:34 PM
permalink
I didn't read the thread...so someone may have covered this BUT....Here is my 2 cents. Scoring in general will continue to increase. Thats what the NFL wants. More scoring means more excitement which means more fans. Rule changes on the defensive side of the ball have made scoring easier. Then add on top of that a real emphasis on protecting players, like WR's and QB's has also make the game easier for the offense. This makes it easier to throw across the middle. Because of these rule changes more teams have switched to a "west coast" style of "spread" style offense. This depends heavily on the pass. This means teams are drafting a different type of running back and different type of offensive lineman. The "3 yards and a cloud of dust" type of NFL is really coming to an end. As an offense moves the ball into the "red zone" it become easier for the defense becasue the field is smaller. And with a less effective running game it becasue harder for the offense to score. This means more field goals. Although this model doesn't always hold true. Like for example the 49ers....who have an excellent running game with Gore and a sub par passing game with Alex Smith. and their Field goal kicker David Akers broke the NFL record this year for field goals made.
January 3rd, 2012 at 12:36:18 PM
permalink
it would also be interesting to see data on number of possessions...to see it that has increased as well.....with less running and more passing the drives are shorter. and even a "3 and out" by the offense with 2 or 3 passing plays takes less off the clock then 2 or 3 running plays. Meaning "in theory" more total possession per game. So maybe the total field goals have increased per game becasue the average number of possessions have increased per game. I'm not gonna try and find the data LOL....but it could be the reason!
January 3rd, 2012 at 3:44:14 PM
permalink
Quote: FaceCor blimey! 0.o The Canadian by way of UK gets it! =D C'mon guys, it's FUTBOL AMERICANO! Bad enough we suck at geography.... ;)
Just to elaborate, once a team takes a fair catch they have the option of kicking a field goal from the spot of the catch. A holder is implemented same as a regular field goal, but there is no snap. The kicker lines up 10yards back same as he would a kickoff, runs up and gives it das boot. The defense cannot rush him on this play. Imagine a windy weather kickoff with no tee... that's basically what it looks like.
The last one was relatively recently, say within 5-7 years. ARZ vs NYG. With 5 seconds left in the half, ARZ attempted a 68 yarder by this method. After a whole bunch of lining it up, making sure the holder held it just right, licking a finger and testing the wind, the kicker booted a line drive that shanked left, bouncing at about the 30yd line ><
Here's the video:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kCBBUMnRqbo
All that drama and pffft....
Quote: NareedIt's not that bad. That's an esoteric rule rarely invoked. What are the chances of getting a fair catch about 40-50 yards from the uprights?
What surprised me was a few seasons back a game ended in a tie, and some of the players were surprised to learn such things existed in the NFL. It seems they thought they'd keep playing after 15 minutes of OT ran out. Now, granted ties are rare in Football, they're not unheard of.
It was Donovan McNabb, in the Eagles tie in 2008 (which was the last one in the NFL). He's tried to say he was just joking since then. But it wasn't "some" of the players, just him.
January 3rd, 2012 at 5:12:47 PM
permalink
Quote: MathExtremistCan you correlate starting drive position with drive result? And then map that to the distribution of this year's starting drive position (which should be much heavier on the 20 yard line)?
I can't. The theory that makes the most sense to me the one that kickers are just getting better. Somebody linked to a good article about it several posts back.
Quote: cclub79Here's the video
Please forgive my ignorance, but why did they even get to do a field goal attempt without having to snap the ball? You can hear the announcers call it a "free kick," but what is a "free kick"? I've never seen a field goal attempt done like a kickoff before.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
January 3rd, 2012 at 5:34:53 PM
permalink
Quote: WizardI can't. The theory that makes the most sense to me the one that kickers are just getting better. Somebody linked to a good article about it several posts back.
Quote: cclub79Here's the video
Please forgive my ignorance, but why did they even get to do a field goal attempt without having to snap the ball? You can hear the announcers call it a "free kick," but what is a "free kick"? I've never seen a field goal attempt done like a kickoff before.
See a previous post made by me. After a fair catch, the team may elect to take a free kick. A free kick is exactly that... it cannot be interrupted, charged or blocked. The kicking team gets an attempt to hit it between the uprights, with as much time as they like.
It's very rare it's attempted. Most fair catches are far too deep to be worth attempting the kick for, you give up possession if you miss (or if you make it). I suspect it's a hold over rule from the early days of American Football when it had a lot more kicking and rugby like aspects.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
January 3rd, 2012 at 8:00:44 PM
permalink
Do you have yearly averages? I'd expect to see a definite uptick year by year over your 10-11 year time frame. I believe these factors are all in play here:
1. The shift towards passing dominance versus the running game - If you compare numbers over time, I think you'll see more 4000 yard passers relative to 1000 yard rushers each year.
2. Stronger legged kickers - It used to be that a 50 yard field goal was something special. Today, if you can't consistently hit half of your 50+ yard attempts, it's likely that you won't be on the roster very long.
3. More attempts (overall and long distance) - Coaches are giving kickers more tries in general and specifically more 50-60 yard tries, because they see a higher success rate on them than in the past.
4. Closer games in general - More parity leads to closer games, and an extra 3 points never hurts. Coaches seem to have given up on throwing Hail Mary's in favor of trying long field goal when circumstances dictate.
1. The shift towards passing dominance versus the running game - If you compare numbers over time, I think you'll see more 4000 yard passers relative to 1000 yard rushers each year.
2. Stronger legged kickers - It used to be that a 50 yard field goal was something special. Today, if you can't consistently hit half of your 50+ yard attempts, it's likely that you won't be on the roster very long.
3. More attempts (overall and long distance) - Coaches are giving kickers more tries in general and specifically more 50-60 yard tries, because they see a higher success rate on them than in the past.
4. Closer games in general - More parity leads to closer games, and an extra 3 points never hurts. Coaches seem to have given up on throwing Hail Mary's in favor of trying long field goal when circumstances dictate.
"Bite my Glorious Golden Ass!" - Bender Bending Rodriguez
January 3rd, 2012 at 8:27:22 PM
permalink
Quote: Toes14Do you have yearly averages? I'd expect to see a definite uptick year by year over your 10-11 year time frame. I believe these factors are all in play here:
Ask and ye shall receive. Sorry but I'm missing 2010.
| Year | Avg. FG |
|---|---|
| 2000 | 2.92 |
| 2001 | 2.97 |
| 2002 | 2.89 |
| 2003 | 2.97 |
| 2004 | 2.74 |
| 2005 | 3.03 |
| 2006 | 3.04 |
| 2007 | 3.07 |
| 2008 | 3.28 |
| 2009 | 2.92 |
Where I do agree is that lopsided games tend to have fewer field goals. That is a correlation I can prove, but I think it is intuitive why.
Yes, we can see a general trend upward. 2008 was another high year.
Quote:Closer games in general - More parity leads to closer games, and an extra 3 points never hurts. Coaches seem to have given up on throwing Hail Mary's in favor of trying long field goal when circumstances dictate.
I have to disagree here. This table shows the average margin of victory by season. The last three years in the table are the three highest, but it isn't a huge increase.
| Year | Avg. MOV |
|---|---|
| 2000 | 12.05 |
| 2001 | 11.14 |
| 2002 | 11.39 |
| 2003 | 11.78 |
| 2004 | 11.45 |
| 2005 | 11.79 |
| 2006 | 11.33 |
| 2007 | 12.33 |
| 2008 | 12.13 |
| 2009 | 13.06 |
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
January 3rd, 2012 at 9:18:37 PM
permalink
Quote: WizardHere is an update to this topic. Naturally, as soon as I quit betting first score to be a touchdown and under 3.5 field goals the number of field goals came down per game came down. Here are the totals for the regular season.
Team Made Attempted Ariz 19 24 Atl 27 29 Bal 30 39 Buf 23 31 Car 22 28 Chic 28 32 Cin 24 29 Clev 24 29 Dal 32 37 Den 19 25 Det 24 29 GB 24 28 Hou 32 38 Ind 23 27 Jac 23 25 KC 24 30 Mia 33 39 Min 22 28 NE 28 33 NO 28 34 NYG 19 24 NYJ 19 25 Oak 31 35 Phil 24 27 Pitt 23 31 SD 28 35 SF 44 52 Sea 25 30 StL 21 28 TB 26 28 Ten 29 32 Wash 31 41 Total 829 1002 Average 25.91 31.31 Average per game 1.62 1.96
While crossing my Ts and dotting my Is with my NFL stats,
Wiz you need to double check your data.
Cincinnati made 33 of 38 in my log. I do not know if that is the only error, it seems to be.
Covers, ESPN and CBS Sports also shows 33/38. (I have found a few errors over at Covers in the past)
For 2011
CBS Sports at 838/1011= 0.828882295
ESPN the same
Covers at 832/1004= 0.828685259. ? Do not know what their problem is. Maybe they have not updated their data base?
I was lazy this year and have not updated my weekly data either.
As you might already know ESPN shows...
2010 794/964= 0.823651452
2009 756/930= 0.812903226
2008 845/1000= 0.845 (NFL Record says Elias Sports Bureau)
2007 795/960= 0.828125
2006 767/942= 0.814225053
January 3rd, 2012 at 9:56:34 PM
permalink
You're right, I had the wrong number for the Bengals. My notes, from NFL.com were right, but in entering the data into Excel I must have entered the Bear's data twice.
Now that I correct that I also get 838 and 1011.
Thanks for the correction. This makes the field goal glut even more pronounced.
Now that I correct that I also get 838 and 1011.
Thanks for the correction. This makes the field goal glut even more pronounced.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
January 3rd, 2012 at 10:28:04 PM
permalink
I don't think there has been an actual drop kick attempt in the CFL since at least the 70's. When Flutie kicked one in the nfl I think the myth spread that he used to do it in the CFL, the truth is his coaches in the cfl never let him try it. You will see cfl players (rarely) punt the ball out of their endzone or punt after receiving the ball downfield because of the rouge rule and because onside players may recover a punt or kick. There is no free kick rule in the cfl.Quote: thecesspitThe free kick is an option given to a recieving team who take a fair catch. The kick is an option even if time has expired. I have no idea who last even attempted one. Flutie, a CFL hall of famer, was the last man to kick a drop goal in the NFL. Its more common in the cfl due to the rules on when the bal is live. And because on side players can recover a kick. The 2nd down trick punt is used every season it seems.
