Math Genius needed on Sports Picks Variations ??
October 31st, 2011 at 4:25:11 PM
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Is there anyone that can do the math how many different variations would be needed to get a perfect parlay card for a 13 game nfl weekend? Delaware Park offers 100k for a perfect nfl parlay card for $5 I think. This week there were only 13 games. How many different cards would you have to purchase in oder to have every possible scenario covered ensuring a perfect card? Please explain how you get it too.
Thanks!
Thanks!
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
October 31st, 2011 at 4:50:00 PM
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8,192
2^13 cards (if it was one match, you need 2 cards, two matches 2 x 2 cards, three matches 2 x 2 x 2 or 2^3 cards).
Assuming you can only bet both sides, and ties push so 12 wins and a tie gets you the jackpot (if it's ties lose or stop the jackpot, there is no combination that will work).
At $5 a card, $40,960 covers them all for you. However, I suspect they have this thought of, and there's some sort of "share" if more than one card hits?
2^13 cards (if it was one match, you need 2 cards, two matches 2 x 2 cards, three matches 2 x 2 x 2 or 2^3 cards).
Assuming you can only bet both sides, and ties push so 12 wins and a tie gets you the jackpot (if it's ties lose or stop the jackpot, there is no combination that will work).
At $5 a card, $40,960 covers them all for you. However, I suspect they have this thought of, and there's some sort of "share" if more than one card hits?
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
October 31st, 2011 at 4:56:33 PM
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Thanks!
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
November 1st, 2011 at 8:43:50 AM
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You have the rules wrong. First, ties against the spread lose. Second, it requires 15 games to be valid or it's no bet. I don't know what the average probability of a tie vs. the spread is, but it makes a win less than p=1/2. Even so, if you had p(win)=1/2, you'd still need to bet over $160,000 to cover all possible 15-team parlays. You can't beat it with a shotgun approach -- you actually need to make picks.
Rules.
Of course, someone won it two weeks ago, the first winner in the over-two-year history of the proposition. I assume that's why you're asking...
Rules.
Of course, someone won it two weeks ago, the first winner in the over-two-year history of the proposition. I assume that's why you're asking...
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice."
-- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
November 1st, 2011 at 9:18:25 AM
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Looks like they spread the card through to next week to get the 15 games.
With no near-miss prize, it seems like poor value to me.
With no near-miss prize, it seems like poor value to me.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
